Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[fkizz]

And if a man like Milley made it to his rank, that means that in other NATO countries it is probably much worse.

I don't know about Milley, but in Portuguese media several military officers and even mediatic writers have appeared with pro-Putin talking points and/or apologisms.

[Cyclops]

Of course, while destroying the bridges interferes with Russian resupply, it also will leave the Ukrainians with a difficult task crossing the river if/when they retake Kherson. In other words, the same actions that make retaking the city easier make going past it harder.

If the mission is destroying the Russian regulars while retaking a defensible oosition the supports an approach to Crimea then it looks pretty sensible.

Ukranian operations off a smaller manpower base would have to be modest, but Putins FUBARed opening plays have evened the ledger, and specific weapon upgrades from NATO have made the unthinkable possible: Ukrainian counteroffensives that actually do aomething.

Russian Generals would be missing the striking power and logistics support the Cancer Czar threw away in February.

I hate "lesser of two evils" diplomacy, i think Zelenskyys regime stinks but using them ro kick Putins teeth in is morally justified. Putin is a brigand and a dog. He seems to be killing more if his own leadership than ever before, so the Russian people are turning on him. How many more Russians have to die before this crime boss dies?

[tgoodenow]

https://www.theguardian.com/business...wn-of-pipeline

So Nord Stream 1 is shut indefinitely. European citizens will pay for decades of their politicians refusing to meet their NATO budget quotas in the form of inflation. I feel bad for the people who don't participate in politics and only want to be left alone. But for those who voted for this I can only...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[conon394]

https://www.theguardian.com/business...wn-of-pipeline

So Nord Stream 1 is shut indefinitely. European citizens will pay for decades of their politicians refusing to meet their NATO budget quotas in the form of inflation. I feel bad for the people who don't participate in politics and only want to be left alone. But for those who voted for this I can only...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Not sure I see NATO spending as a point. They are paying for over reliance on Natural Gas from Russia and really overselling Said natural gas as a transition power source.

[Lord Thesaurian]

For details please visit the nearest Russian embassy.

[Ludicus]

Yep because nothing like facing the longer term extensional crisis of global warming and say yep good thing we shut nuclear power down (the green choice) better get back to that not green choice and energy dependency on Putin's Russia and maybe keep burning brown coal for another decade.

Renewable energy, which is the right way to go, will take many years to provide sufficient energy.Right now,Germany is getting ready to burn... wood, go figure. Read below. (*)
---
UN Secretary-General spokesman Stephane Dujarric did not deny to journalists at a press conference that the Ukrainian sabotage attempt was to take over the nuclear plant and use the IAEA mission as a human shield and thanked the Russian Federation for ensuring the safety of the inspectors.
Press conference, video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1565594511060992000
IAIE (International Atomic Energy Agency) on twitter,

"Our team on the ground received direct, fast & reliable info about latest significant development affecting the plant’s external power situation, as well as the operational status of reactors. This is crucial information in assessing overall situation there”
"The head of the team of experts who inspected the Zaporizhia plant says they were able to be in all the areas where they wanted to be but assumes that the biggest concern is that the attacks around the plant will continue”.

---
No one wants a nuclear war, but that will be the inevitable path of any nuclear power if its survival is at stake. In Russia, for some of those nostalgic for the Bolshevik regime, Gorbachev died guilty of having destroyed the territorial unity of the Soviet regime. Putin does not seem willing to have Russian nationalists blame him for being the last president of Russia. I mention this to remind the most inattentive that the West, while strongly disapproving the illegal invasion of Ukraine, encourages and supports the annihilation of the Russian state Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "The 2nd Forum of the Free Nations of Russia

propose a break-up of Russia into 34 states

Free Nations of Russia Forum

Reconstruction and structural transformation …This process is a transition from an authoritarian imperial state to a galaxy of free, independent and democratic countries

Which is supported by the United States. Decolonizing Russia | CSCE - Helsinki Commission
DECOLONIZING RUSSIA-Thursday, June 23, 202210:00am Washington, DC United States
---
In Ukraine, the US wants/needs a victory; in the end, this victory may mean the destruction of Ukraine, in a logic of "what is not mine will not be yours." It seems to me that in any case, Ukraine will cease to be a viable state.
From now on, there will be a radical division of the world. On the western side the US and a weakened, impoverished Europe; on the eastern side, Russia, China, India and other Asian countries Vostok military exercises indicate that Russia is far from isolated

Except for Japan, and to an extent Singapore, the major Asian and Eurasian states are not only not in, but some of them seem to be building even deeper ties with Russia. Washington may wish to reflect as to why its Russia strategy is failing to excite most Asians.

Defying US pressure, India joins China, Russia in war games
----
Meanwhile in Europe, the EU accuses Russia of using "false pretexts" to cut gas. With or without false pretexts, in wartime, isn't that to be expected?
Here, at the end of this month, we will pay three times what we paid last month for the gas we consume, and the following month the bill will increase even more. So, I will pay the triple or four times more, while oil and gas companies can take advantage and make four times the profits that they made when there wasn't a war.
---
(*) In Germany, according to the Deutsche Bank, for domestic heating wood could substitute gas. Many Germans are stocking up on wood to burn for warmth, as many predict that gas supplies will completely or nearly run out by early 2023. Deutsche Bank Says Germans May Need to Switch from Gas-to -Wood for Heating this Winter

…but it’s hard to hear about Germans switching from “gas-to-wood” without thinking of the time when Germans used “wood-to-gas”.

So, this is the future that is being prepared to be served to a weakened Europe after the next winter. Its’s a future of inflation, recession- and relative poverty. European Parliament's Resolution to Mitigate the Social and Economic Impacts of the War on Ukraine

More concretely, unemployment, inequalities and poverty are projected to increase correlated to rising energy prices, price inflation, wage stagnation and the disruption of supply chains

Diplomacy Watch: Why did the West stop a peace deal in Ukraine?

Russia and Ukraine agreed on a tentative deal to end the war in April, according to a recent piece in Foreign Affairs. The news highlights the impact of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s efforts to stop negotiation. The decision to scuttle the deal coincided with Johnson’s April visit to Kyiv, during which he reportedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to break off talks with Russia for two key reasons: Putin cannot be negotiated with, and the West isn’t ready for the war to end…as long as this war drags on, people around the world will continue to suffer, and the specter of a catastrophic event — whether through an errant strike on a power plant or an uncontrolled escalation to nuclear war — will continue to loom.

---

"The hidden hand of the market will never work without the hidden fist. McDonalds cannot flourish without McDonnell Douglas”. Thomas Friedman right wing US journalist, three times Pulitzer Prize. (For the wrong reasons, he is right).
Pentagon stockpiles 'uncomfortably low' due to Ukraine arms

Arms makers are licking their chops as defense officials worry about shortfalls in weapons stockpiles.
…It also highlights the massive financial windfall that arms manufacturers will receive in the coming months and years as taxpayers fund a boost in weapons production…there’s little doubt that defense giants will be the biggest winners from the billions that the United States has invested in Kyiv’s defense.

[Vanoi]

You left out details about that "peace deal" that the West did not force Ukraine to reject.

From the source your article cites:

Despite calls by some for a negotiated settlement that would involve Ukrainian territorial concessions, Putin seems uninterested in a compromise that would leave Ukraine as a sovereign, independent state—whatever its borders. According to multiple former senior U.S. officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries. But as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in a July interview with his country’s state media, this compromise is no longer an option. Even giving Russia all of the Donbas is not enough

No where does it say the West stopped a peace deal with Russia and Ukraine.

[Mithradates]

You left out details about that "peace deal" that the West did not force Ukraine to reject.

From the source your article cites:



No where does it say the West stopped a peace deal with Russia and Ukraine.

It is in the other link.

The Russian side, no matter what anyone says, knows how to read signals and was actually ready for a meeting between Zelensky and Putin.

But two things happened, after which the member of the Ukrainian delegation, Mykhailo Podolyak, had to openly admit that the meeting of the presidents was " out of time ".

The first is the exposure of atrocities, rapes, murders, massacres, looting, indiscriminate bombings and hundreds and thousands of other war crimes committed by Russian troops on temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories.

How and what can you talk to Putin about if you don't talk to him about Bucha , Irpin , Borodyanka or " Azovstal "?..

The moral and value gulf between Putin and the world is so great that even in the Kremlin there will not be such a large negotiating table to close it.

The second – much more unexpected – obstacle to agreements with the Russians arrived in Kyiv on April 9.

As soon as the Ukrainian negotiators and Abramovych/Medynskyi agreed in general terms on the structure of the future possible agreement based on the results of Istanbul, the Prime Minister of Great Britain Boris Johnson appeared in Kyiv almost without warning .

"Johnson brought two simple messages to Kyiv: Putin is a war criminal, he should be suppressed, not negotiated with. And secondly, if you are ready to sign any agreements on guarantees with him, then we are not. We can with you, but not with him, he will still abandon everyone ," one of Zelenskyi's close associates summarizes the essence of Johnson's visit.

We are supposed to believe it was Johnson who stopped the peace deal, in reality the deal was already dead.

[Vanoi]

It is in the other link.



We are supposed to believe it was Johnson who stopped the peace deal, in reality the deal was already dead.

It's why I posted that quote. One of the biggest problems with that deal is the the states that would guarantee Ukraine's independence. There was no agreement on who would do it and Russia floated Belarus as one state that the Ukrainians would obviously not accept.

[conon394]

Vostok military exercises indicate that Russia is far from isolated

Russian participation scaled back to a announced 50,000 troops but likely 10-15,000 via you own link trail. China and India big surprise. maybe they can look and military gear Russia can't afford to send its own troops. But you right clearly the major diplomatic blow is Laos and Mongolia how US prestige recover?

----

You are seriously suggesting Ukraine was about accept a deal with

"Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries"

Which countries and let's see I seem to recall something let's see Ukraine gave up its very real status as a nuclear armed state for I know security guarantees from other countries including Russia - that worked out well.

-------------

It's why I posted that quote. One of the biggest problems with that deal is the the states that would guarantee Ukraine's independence. There was no agreement on who would do it and Russia floated Belarus as one state that the Ukrainians would obviously not accept.

I can't really see how any such list could be constructed. Realistically only the US or China could and neither of which would be acceptable to Putin (nor would China undertake such a role). After that it would just be window dressing and a reset button for Putin to have do over.

[AqD]

No one wants a nuclear war, but that will be the inevitable path of any nuclear power if its survival is at stake.

Do you know about boiling frogs?

I mention this to remind the most inattentive that the West, while strongly disapproving the illegal invasion of Ukraine, encourages and supports the annihilation of the Russian state Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "The 2nd Forum of the Free Nations of Russia

Ha, just a few weeks ago you people were saying Russian military is unstoppable, and they'd throw nukes if we help hopeless Ukrainians defend themselves.

Now you're worried about Russia's own annihilation, and rightly so - The West should aggressively defend itself just like how Russia does it, except everything he did we can do it 10 times better.

Either way, your favorite country is done and Putin gets to watch everything he built crumbling to absolute nothing, before he draws the last breath. I wish him a long life after this.

[Heathen Hammer]

https://www.theguardian.com/business...wn-of-pipeline

So Nord Stream 1 is shut indefinitely. European citizens will pay for decades of their politicians refusing to meet their NATO budget quotas in the form of inflation. I feel bad for the people who don't participate in politics and only want to be left alone. But for those who voted for this I can only...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I'm sure that politicians will be fine in their mansions, as well as oligarchs that rule them, its the taxpayer who will have to pay for the expenses of both.

[Coughdrop addict]

Ha, just a few weeks ago you people were saying Russian military is unstoppable, and they'd throw nukes if we help hopeless Ukrainians defend themselves.

It really is amazing how badly run Russia's military is. Apparently the orcs aren't even getting combat pay.

https://thehill.com/policy/internati...-intelligence/

The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Sunday that Russian forces in Ukraine have likely not received combat bonuses, hampering morale.
“Russian forces continue to suffer from morale and discipline issues in Ukraine,” the ministry said in a Twitter thread. “In addition to combat fatigue and high casualties, one of the main grievances from deployed Russian soldiers probably continues to be problems with their pay.”


It said that Russian troops receive a modest salary and a variety of bonuses and allowances, noting the combat bonuses have not been paid since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine.

Although the article doesn't outright say so, I wonder if Putin ever even intended to pay them.

[Laser101]

No one wants a nuclear war, but that will be the inevitable path of any nuclear power if its survival is at stake. In Russia, for some of those nostalgic for the Bolshevik regime, Gorbachev died guilty of having destroyed the territorial unity of the Soviet regime. Putin does not seem willing to have Russian nationalists blame him for being the last president of Russia. I mention this to remind the most inattentive that the West, while strongly disapproving the illegal invasion of Ukraine, encourages and supports the annihilation of the Russian state Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "The 2nd Forum of the Free Nations of Russia Free Nations of Russia ForumWhich is supported by the United States. Decolonizing Russia | CSCE - Helsinki CommissionDECOLONIZING RUSSIA-Thursday, June 23, 202210:00am Washington, DC United States

To be fair, such sentiments are generally rather impotent. Russia's ethnic situation is very different to that of the USSR; ethnic Russians make up ~80% of the population and the majority of the population in most regions. Other than Chechnya, the other Caucasus republics to a lesser degree and possibly Tatarstan (although an independent Tatarstan would have the problem of being an enclave), there aren't really any areas in Russia where you could build an independence movement that would be accepted by a sizable majority of the population. This is unlike the situation in the Soviet Union where the individual republics were national entities in their own right- and even in that case it took a while for public opinion in many of the republics to shift in favour of the union's dissolution (largely as a result of the August 1991 coup attempt).

[Cyclops]

"Russia will automatically nuke us for the continuing aggression of not supporting an invasion they are too feeble to conclude by themselves". I dunno, its been in the charts for months now and doesnt seem to be very popular.

Might be time for a new tune maybe.

And not "Ukrainians blew up their own reactor because...something something", thats terrible.

[Heathen Hammer]

Ah yes, now proponents of progress, human rights and liberal democracy want to.... start WW3. Oof.
Also given Biden's nepotistic history of sacrificing national interests for his Kremlin-connected crackhead son, I wouldn't even bring up nuclear option to avoid one of the biggest backfires in history of backfires.

[Ludicus]

In Portuguese media several military officers... have appeared with pro-Putin talking points and/or apologisms.

These military analysts are far from subscribing to the political ideas of Putin and the regime that is in power in Russia.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Agostinho Costa | CNN Portugal

Vice-President of Eurodefense - Portugal. UN Military Observer during the conflict in former Yugoslavia; Staff Operations Officer 3rd Italian Division/Allied Rapid Reaction Corps in Italy; Chief of Operations Section of the Western Staff of the Multinational Brigade immediately after the Kosovo conflict as General Officer he was Chief of Staff of the European Rapid Operational Force (EUROFOR) in Italy.

Carlos Branco | CNN Portugal

He served with the UN, in the Balkans, before Dayton, as military observer. After, he served in the EUROFOR HQ, in Florence, as Chief of the Intelligence Analysis Section. In 2001, he was assigned to the Military Division of the DPKO, UN Head Quarters (HQ), in New York, as Peacekeeping Affairs Officers for the UN missions in the Middle East (Lebanon, Syria, Israel and Iraq/Kuwait border). He​ still was Battalion, Regiment Commander and Airborne Brigade Deputy Commander and COMISAF spokesperson, in Afghanistan. In 2008, he took the position of Deputy Director of the National Defence Institute and Army Director of Doctrine before being selected for the position of Director of Cooperation & Regional Security in the International Military Staff, at the NATO HQ. In this function, he was responsible for the strategic planning of NATO military cooperation with all NATO’s partners. And later, he was Deputy Director, at the War College, with the research and development portfolio. In this latter quality, he was Chief Editor of the War College Scientific publications.

Mendes Dias | CNN Portugal
In Bosnia, where he was a military observer, Mendes Dias witnessed the worst atrocities in the years 94-95.

All of them are highly experienced military analysts, that's why CNN has invited them to bring us a daily update on the war in Ukraine.
(I would rather hear them than a former NATO Vice President claiming that Kherson will be quickly retaken by Ukraine, and as a result, Putin will be assassinated and thrown out of a Kremlin window)

All of them have been on peacekeeping missions during the wars of the last 30 years, not after the peace accords were signed. They all witnessed the war in Yugoslavia firsthand- and in other places around the globe. As one of them already commented, many of those who criticize them are air-conditioned heroes, with their laptop computers and snacks next to them, they know everything, without ever having seen anything. Let's add to these some career political commentators who need to receive a salary at the end of the month and cannot take the risk of being fired.

“The true is not neutral” says Carl Bernstein on CNN USA. In a stricto sensu that’s completely true.
But do you know why CNN is now listening to seemingly dissenting, independent voices? have you wondered about that? It’s because the new CNN boss wants talent to be adjusted to a less partisan tone and strategy. Scoop: CNN evaluating partisan talent
I regret to see that the non-democratic wing of the Democratic Party is upset, because "truth is not neutral”. Now CNN wants to be less "partisan": Will the media never never learn its lesson?
----





Mariano Grossi presents the “7 indispensable pillars of security”. About the physical integrity of the facilities, he says,

What you see here is a big red. Why is it a big red? It’s because we have been seeing military activity around the plant, and I was able to see myself and my team impact, holes, markings on buildings, which means that the physical integrity of the facility has been violated not once, but several times. It’s unacceptable in any way under any safety and security criteria.
The shelling started in August. It’s a recent trend if I can call it like that.
I take you to the power supply: those who have these military aims know very well the way to hit where it hurts so the plant becomes very problematic; my concern would be the power supply and of course the staff.
The rest are things we can work on…if you look at, what we have now is a big improvement. We have a big team there, we have people who are going to stay there, this has tremendous value, this is a huge value.
It’s no longer a matter of “A” said this, and “B” said the contrary. I have seen what I requested to see, and we saw everything.

Zelensky says Russia is using Zaporizhzia as an atomic weapon, but what is happening is the opposite.Ukraine tries to maintain the fiction:Russia is bombing itself.
Ukraine nuclear plant disconnected by shelling after watchdog exits - Reuters

[Cyclops]

I see Putin's scandalous and illegal "vote" for occupied cities to be detached from Ukraine has been postponed, not doubt his shills will have some garbage to burn to throw up a smokescreen.

The Russian position is based on so many lies. "Ukraine belongs to Russia" lie. "Russia will not invade" lie. "It will be over in 3 days/weeks/months" multiple lies. "Moskva did not sink" lie with a side of cope. "Russia will be forced to nuke everyone" lie. "Ukraine is detonating its own reactors" lie.

Can we have a week where the Russian mouthpieces just say the truth?

Really starting to get tired of this rubbish war from a pitiless and incompetent crook against a neighbour. I think liberal democracies can do more, much more, to help Ukraine smash the invader's faces. Best of all if the Russians exercise their democratic rights and spill this goon, but its their call of course.

[conon394]

@Ludicus you have dodged the issue. You raised the supposed peace deal that the US supposedly killed. But neither you nor your link provided any coherent supply of nations to provide security guarantees to the Ukraine after thay accept a so called deal. This where thay accept being a satellite of Russia, and Russia retains the Crimea and the Donbas and one assumes pays nothing to undo the damage it has caused?

Back to security guarantees. That requires a Nuclear power no? I mean if you want to imply it be be valid against Russia. Somebody with a large military and economy that is not say vulnerable to Russia fuel blackmail and has the resources to use it military in a contested way vs a peer nation. Somebody not a friend of Russia. Presumably not in NATO or not a close US ally (so not Japan). The list looks short - well non existent. But really spit ball here and explain how Switzerland, Botswana and Argentina will deter future Russian aggression.

edit: And to reiterate in giving up being a very real nuclear power Ukraine received security guarantees which seemingly were umm no so secure.

---------------

@cyclops

Can we have a week where the Russian mouthpieces just say the truth?

Well I suppose if you start paying their bills but in general I believe all those who fall under the rubric of 'mouthpiece' are suppose to at minimum spin if not lie for those who you know pay their bills. I would imagine you also need to guarantee a safety window and tea inspection daily as well.

[AqD]

Ah yes, now proponents of progress, human rights and liberal democracy want to.... start WW3. Oof.

You're assuming they're capable of WW3.

They are not. What make you think any of their warheads are in working condition given the performance of their commanders and rampant corruption? It'd be hilarious for them to fire ICBM only to land on Russia itself or explode outright, that's assuming any officer would rather die than live.

Best of all if the Russians exercise their democratic rights and spill this goon, but its their call of course.

What if they become democratic but continue to be aggressive toward their neighbors? Democracy and imperialism are not mutually exclusive.

I see no reason for us to trust their country ever again.