Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[mishkin]

sorry for the newbie meddling, and sorry if this has already been discussed, but aside of Ukraine who would benefit from NATO entering the conflict? the United States? if so, why?

[Ludicus]

aside of Ukraine who would benefit from NATO entering the conflict? the United States? if so, why?

No one would benefit, even the US.
Overextending and Unbalancing Russia - RAND Corporation

According to the Rand Corporation,which has the support of the government, and ultimately reflects the official stance of the US, it can be done without a direct US intervention.
Its all here...

Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability. But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.

Meanwhile , US quietly announces new Ukraine command with 3-star

Definitely a sign that the US is preparing for a long war in Ukraine and long-term military competition with Russia
Of course, Washington has stopped short of putting U.S. boots on the ground in Ukraine to help President Zelensky in his aim of driving Russia out of his country. Polls continue to show that is not what the American people want. But having a 3-star just over the border, commanding billions in weapons and training efforts is getting as close as it gets.

NEW: Americans Opposed to Boots on the Ground in Ukraine

[PointOfViewGun]

sorry for the newbie meddling, and sorry if this has already been discussed, but aside of Ukraine who would benefit from NATO entering the conflict? the United States? if so, why?

Russia has claims on a number of neighboring countries and acted on a number of them already. Parts of Georgia are under Russian occupation. If Ukraine fell, Moldova was likely the next step. It even called Kazakhstan an artificial state. Basically any USSR break away state is game for Russia. Hence, the war in Ukraine affects those states in some way for the security of their future. Any involvement of a stronger party, NATO or not, would help their outcome.

[Mithradates]

You can't be responsible for the defense against you being unable to hit your missile and instead landing in another country and killing two people; that's just illogical.

I blame all deaths in this war on Russia, on Putin. Without him, we would be recovering from the pandemic and preparing for Christmas in peace, but no, Bunker Boy just had to start his stupid illegal war.

[Alastor]

I blame all deaths in this war on Russia, on Putin. Without him, we would be recovering from the pandemic and preparing for Christmas in peace, but no, Bunker Boy just had to start his stupid illegal war.

And I blame all deaths in this war on Adam, if he wasn't so horny and could control himself around Eve, the rest of the animals would be enjoying a pristine green Earth. But no, lover boy wanted to get some and eventually Putin was born and at some point later this war happened. Tsk.

How quickly people excuse Ukraine for this likely irresponsible use of missiles, is clear evidence of the incredible bias with which the west approaches this conflict. Not only did Ukraine blunder here, but they were quick, as always, to blame Russia and try to capitalise, asking for "more action". Events like this should put Ukraine's credibility in question, it should at least be cause for some scrutiny. Or at least it would, if the narrative in the west wasn't already poisoned to this extent. As it stands, it makes me wonder how many other things that Zelensky has blamed Russia for, with our western pundits cheering them on, are indeed Russia's fault.

On the plus side, the US did intervene to clear this up. This indicates that at least some key people in the US understand that a greater escalation, via a NATO intervention, is in nobody's best interest (except perhaps the Ukranians, perhaps). Now if only they would actually act to deescalate too.

[Cyclops]

Zelensky blamed Russia for the strike yesterday. Same as the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Its quite right to point out a lie from a leader under terrorist attack, and just as right to point out the Ukrainian missile was trying to knock out a terrorist barrage from a Russian brigand.

This missile attack on Poland is definitely Putin's fault. No terror attack, no failed intercept.

I support Poland and NATO's entry. If there are terror forces lurking near Minsk I support Poland striking them until the terror attacks on civilians cease.

[mishkin]

Russia has claims on a number of neighboring countries and acted on a number of them already. Parts of Georgia are under Russian occupation. If Ukraine fell, Moldova was likely the next step. It even called Kazakhstan an artificial state. Basically any USSR break away state is game for Russia. Hence, the war in Ukraine affects those states in some way for the security of their future. Any involvement of a stronger party, NATO or not, would help their outcome.

yes, I had forgotten about them, thanks

[Kyriakos]

Its quite right to point out a lie from a leader under terrorist attack, and just as right to point out the Ukrainian missile was trying to knock out a terrorist barrage from a Russian brigand.

This missile attack on Poland is definitely Putin's fault. No terror attack, no failed intercept.

I support Poland and NATO's entry. If there are terror forces lurking near Minsk I support Poland striking them until the terror attacks on civilians cease.

To be fair, Poland alone wouldn't be able to do much against Russia, much like Ukraine alone wouldn't. This is a war between Russia and US, but with Ukraine as proxy. It's also why (if it doesn't get nuclear, which I am sure US doesn't want because it has no intention of being reduced to third world fallout) Ukraine will do well to reach some peace in which it keeps most of its stuff - and likely giving away just Crimea, which has been officially run by Russia for almost a decade now anyway.
In other words: it's great to be pushing the other side back, but not so great if at some point others may support it (or, in the case of Russia, it can produce its own heavy weapons) and you don't produce your own heavy weapons.

[PointOfViewGun]

...irresponsible use of missiles...

Just highlighting the daftness of such a suggestion...

[Mithradates]

And I blame all deaths in this war on Adam, if he wasn't so horny and could control himself around Eve, the rest of the animals would be enjoying a pristine green Earth. But no, lover boy wanted to get some and eventually Putin was born and at some point later this war happened. Tsk.

Without Adam, nobody would be here. Without Putin, tens of thousands of people would be still here.

How quickly people excuse Ukraine for this likely irresponsible use of missiles, is clear evidence of the incredible bias with which the west approaches this conflict.

"irresponsible use of missiles" as trying to shoot down Russian missiles aimed at playgrounds, apartment buildings, power plants etc.?
Okay.

[Alastor]

"irresponsible use of missiles" as trying to shoot down Russian missiles aimed at playgrounds, apartment buildings, power plants etc.?
Okay.

If it's done in a such way that your missile lands in someone else's playground, apartment building, power plant etc, yes it is irresponsible. Better than intentional. But still bad.

[PointOfViewGun]

If it's done in a such way that your missile lands in someone else's playground, apartment building, power plant etc, yes it is irresponsible. Better than intentional. But still bad.

That's not how air defense works. They're not gonna leave Lviv defenseless just because air defense missiles do not have 100% accuracy rate.

[Mithradates]

If it's done in a such way that your missile lands in someone else's playground, apartment building, power plant etc, yes it is irresponsible. Better than intentional. But still bad.

There is only one way to use them, shoot it at the incoming missile and hope it wont kill people in accident. If you dont shoot it, the incoming missile will kill people.
Or what, if Russia is attacking Ukrainian targets near the Polish border the Ukrainians shouldnt try to shoot down those missiles.
Maybe you dont understand this, Poland apparently does.

[conon394]

If it's done in a such way that your missile lands in someone else's playground, apartment building, power plant etc, yes it is irresponsible. Better than intentional. But still bad.

There is no responsible way to use your air defenses. If shooting down missiles with missiles stuff is going to fall out of the sky. If Russia is going to Target Lviv and other places by the boarder One assumes missiles will potentially fall out of the sky from either side.

[Kyriakos]

There is only one way to use them, shoot it at the incoming missile and hope it wont kill people in accident. If you dont shoot it, the incoming missile will kill people.
Or what, if Russia is attacking Ukrainian targets near the Polish border the Ukrainians shouldnt try to shoot down those missiles.
Maybe you dont understand this, Poland apparently does.

Poland understands Ukraine's missile not hitting what it was attempting to hit, but doesn't understand Russia's missile not hitting what it was attempting to hit => terrible if Russia by mistake hit stuff in Poland, fine if Ukraine by mistake hit stuff in Poland.

[mishkin]

Poland understands Ukraine's missile not hitting what it was attempting to hit, but doesn't understand Russia's missile not hitting what it was attempting to hit => terrible if Russia by mistake hit stuff in Poland, fine if Ukraine by mistake hit stuff in Poland.

Don't you understand the difference between making a mistake while attacking and making a mistake while defending yourself? They launch a missile at your home and you cross your arms because of the (remote) possibility that if you try to stop it you will harm third parties?

ukraine should apologize for rushing into blaming russia for attacking poland and for "accidentally" (horrible word, sorry) killing innocent people in poland, but what happened is completely understandable.

[Alastor]

There is no responsible way to use your air defenses. If shooting down missiles with missiles stuff is going to fall out of the sky. If Russia is going to Target Lviv and other places by the boarder One assumes missiles will potentially fall out of the sky from either side.

Lviv is 60km away from the border, this missile landed if I recall 70km northwestwards from Lviv. While attempting to intercept a missile that would be unlikely to be coming from the northwest (unless fired from Belarus, though I'm not certain if Russia is firing missiles from there). You guys speak with a lot of certainty, but as far as I understand at least, missile defense doesn't mean start firing missiles on all directions in the hopes of hitting sth. This isn't some rando on the ground firing MANPADS in a panic we're talking about. This was, from what I gathered, an S-300 missile, hence the range. There are procedures in place, they have targeting systems, they don't just fly blind. Or at least, I sure hope they don't. So for this to happen, someone along the way screwed up.

I'll say again, how quick we are to exonerate Ukraine and just blame Russia and Russia alone for this incident, despite the reckless or even duplicitous attitude of the Ukrainian authorities that followed, showcases how extreme our bias is.

[conon394]

Poland understands Ukraine's missile not hitting what it was attempting to hit, but doesn't understand Russia's missile not hitting what it was attempting to hit => terrible if Russia by mistake hit stuff in Poland, fine if Ukraine by mistake hit stuff in Poland.

One is part of a illegitimate aggressive war the other an attempt to defend one's country - yes there is a difference.

[Kyriakos]

Don't you understand the difference between making a mistake while attacking and making a mistake while defending yourself? They launch a missile at your home and you cross your arms because of the (remote) possibility that if you try to stop it you will harm third parties?

ukraine should apologize for rushing into blaming russia for attacking poland and for "accidentally" (horrible word, sorry) killing innocent people in poland, but what happened is completely understandable.

I doubt the two people killed in Poland would have cared (if told a few seconds before being blown to bits). It's unlikely that their relatives care either, so if this happens again there should be some change. Sure, if I use a missile once, to defend myself, but it ends up killing you, it can be just a terrible mistake, but if it continues to happen I should be held accountable

@Conon: let me use a slightly nerdy parallelism and say that, yes, there is a difference, but it's like the difference when you have a (function) constant and differentiate it: it gets removed. So the difference is only there in one level, not the progression.

[Septentrionalis]

Breaking news. Russia supporters and apologists having insurmountable trouble seeing the moral difference in between a school shooter hitting a bystander that does not attend the school and someone trying to take down the school shooter hitting a bystander.