View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #7981
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Ukraine isn't South Korea, though. And "frozen" means "to be revived when the US has its next imperialist war" - which it will.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  2. #7982

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Ukraine isn't South Korea, though. And "frozen" means "to be revived when the US has its next imperialist war" - which it will.
    Funny. South Korea went through 50 years of this "US imperialism" without reviving the war, and that was before NK got its first nukes.

    I'm sick and tired of people denying other countries their sovereignty by this "it's all US vs Russia/China proxy, everyone is just controlled by them" BS. Most of all, Ukrainians want to defend their homeland. Last I heard, over half of them support continuing until the pre-2014 borders are restored, and Ukraine has a real chance of achieving it. If they decide they want peace, I guarantee you that US won't be able to keep them from peace settlement, even if it truly wanted to.

  3. #7983
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Ukraine isn't South Korea, though. And "frozen" means "to be revived when the US has its next imperialist war" - which it will.
    The only reheated US imperialist war I know of is Iraq and I doubt they will try that again any time soon.

    The US tends to "once and done" their targets, unlike Putin who seems to have a timetable of shaving neighbours on a rotating schedule.

    Ukraine can be South Korea if it wants to be, and the US wants it to be (South Korea had a very rough start but has done better economically since the 80's, that would likely be the case here too). Russia can be North Korea if it wants to be (started looking strong but the decades have ground them down to, well, North Korea).
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  4. #7984
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    It is naive to believe that just because the US want it so, Russia has been cut off the microchip market, or for that matter any vital market. Where there is a demand, there will be sellers willing to take risks and the US, or the collective west even, is but one corner of the world. We, in the west, would be wise to start remembering that.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-mic...ussia-7ad9d6f4
    The U.S. invented microchips and it has threatened sanctions on anyone who sells many, if not most, varieties to Russia. Still, recent leaks—and some publicly available data—make clear that they keep showing up on Russian shores. At the center of the trade is China and, allegedly, a few other intermediary countries such as Turkey.
    https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/27/millio...-russia-report
    Several million microchips produced by Dutch manufacturers, including NXP and Nexperia, wound up in Russia last year in shipments that were handled by resellers after sanctions were in place as a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Hundreds of deliveries were made to three Russian companies connected to that country's defense industry, according to a new investigative report by NOS.

  5. #7985
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    It is naive to believe that just because the US want it so, Russia has been cut off the microchip market, or for that matter any vital market. Where there is a demand, there will be sellers willing to take risks and the US, or the collective west even, is but one corner of the world. We, in the west, would be wise to start remembering that.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-mic...ussia-7ad9d6f4

    https://nltimes.nl/2023/01/27/millio...-russia-report
    I hope the chips are compatible with the T34s.

    Jokes aside Russia has "sanction proofed" itself as much as decades of time and enormous geographic advantage allows but its still a major pain in their arses, and the US recently detaching the UK from Europe via Brexit has put the black money market in London more vulnerable to US interference. Russian entrepreneurs will be losing more toys I think and brining in less deals.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  6. #7986
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    @Cyclops
    The point is that should Russia opt to enter great patriotic war mode, a lack of chips won't stop them. They are generally autarkist enough and the money from crude keeps on flowing anyway, to help them secure what's left. I rather doubt the will is there, but that's not due to a lack of resources but more likely due to political considerations/limitations, Putin is not in a strong position I believe currently. This political weakness could have been exploited to bring Russia to the negotiating table, if relations between Russia and the west hadn't been so thoroughly torched. Instead, Biden and co are trying to exploit this weakness to force a regime change in Russia, or worse. As I said before, making it existential for Putin is not a smart approach.
    Last edited by Alastor; March 24, 2023 at 03:18 AM.

  7. #7987

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    I hope the chips are compatible with the T34s.
    Sometimes the jokes write themselves.

    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639237977854603264

  8. #7988
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    There are still those who hold the myth that wars are conducted between villains and saints, Lives torn apart by British airstrikes in Mosul give lie to UK's ‘perfect’ precision war Multiple civilian deaths linked to 2016-17 British airstrikes
    This is lazy false equivalency Ludicus. Russia is clearly making no attempt to avoid civilian casualties. Second what is your solution simply leave ISIS in place. Invite them to march and fight on the town green? Not really sure they would accept. You like pointing out flaws but rarely offer alternatives.


    In my opinion, we must place the interests of this country above the dictates and interests of Brussels and NATO
    Problem is that than NATO and EU might just end up putting their in front any problems your country might have. I mean last I checked you country is a pretty major net receiver of EU money transfers. And given Portugal's history of limited spending on defense as a percentage of GDP one might if uncharitable say you are looking like a free rider

    There is no evidence that Russia threatens to invade any European country. Nor did they raise any opposition to Finland or Swedish’s membership in NATO, Putin explains how Finland, Sweden membership in NATO
    Moldovia is not in Europe, Russian treats to Estonia and cyber attack are of no concernhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61420185Seems like objections to me on Finland Also while seem to be alert to a hard line statement by Biden of a UK politician or some Polish backbencher you are noticeably deaf to the same from Russian minister or their back bench politician.
    Last edited by conon394; March 24, 2023 at 08:32 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  9. #7989
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    @Cyclops
    The point is that should Russia opt to enter great patriotic war mode, a lack of chips won't stop them. They are generally autarkist enough and the money from crude keeps on flowing anyway, to help them secure what's left. I rather doubt the will is there, but that's not due to a lack of resources but more likely due to political considerations/limitations, Putin is not in a strong position I believe currently. This political weakness could have been exploited to bring Russia to the negotiating table, if relations between Russia and the west hadn't been so thoroughly torched. Instead, Biden and co are trying to exploit this weakness to force a regime change in Russia, or worse. As I said before, making it existential for Putin is not a smart approach.

    Err how and when on that negotiating table and with what offer? Saying the word negotiation is not a super power
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  10. #7990

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Sar1n View Post
    Sometimes the jokes write themselves.

    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639237977854603264
    In other recent displays of impotent rage, the Russians have talked about firing a missile into The Hague in response to getting the war criminal label they deserve. And renewed nuclear threats which basically shows the full extent their desperation.

  11. #7991
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Err how and when on that negotiating table and with what offer? Saying the word negotiation is not a super power
    That's an entirely academic discussion at this point, as it's not going to happen, but whatever would realistically end the war.

  12. #7992
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    That's an entirely academic discussion at this point, as it's not going to happen, but whatever would realistically end the war.
    Russia running out of MBTs and resorting to loading conscripts into vehicles from the 1940s may end the war. That's not autarky, that's North Korea.

    Realistically Ukraine is resisting Russia, and unless the US decides to let Russia win they are stuck losing.

    "Russia ain't gonna stop" isn't a reason for the west to stop. Its a testable statement, and it's being tested. The data doesn't look as good for Putin as all our initial theses predicted.

    One can respond "it's cruel for the West to prolong a war", well its cruel to start one and blame accrues to the aggressor. "Russia CAN'T back down" once again, testable, not an article of faith.

    Also mad dog theory only works if have teeth and use them. All the barking and still no bite?

  13. #7993
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I can't see how anyone expects Russia to "go back to the pre-2014 border". Crimea has a massive russian majority, why think that even the russian public would rather this gets lost than go into full war mode with millions of soldiers?
    Then again, there's the small issue of even currently Russia occupying roughly 1/5 of Ukraine, which doesn't translate to "Russia is losing".
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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  14. #7994
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Then again, there's the small issue of even currently Russia occupying roughly 1/5 of Ukraine, which doesn't translate to "Russia is losing".
    No, but neither does it equate to Russia winning. Consider the front line on Armistice day 1918.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  15. #7995

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I can't see how anyone expects Russia to "go back to the pre-2014 border".
    I am not sure about Crimea specifically but, because the western leaders are not total imbeciles, they know it would be a monumental failure and a display of short-sightedness and weakness to let Russia have what it wants.

    Unprovoked aggression, war crimes galore, intentionally and continuously directing military action against civilian targets, threatening time and again with nuclear weapons (which NO ONE else does), threatening shooting missiles into Netherlands, poisoning people abroad, murdering journalists and dissidents, emptying prisons to fight an illegitimate war and to plunder, mass deportation of children stolen away from their parents to be brainwashed into a fascist ideology, setting up a children's army, having outspoken plans to conquer more than just Ukraine with plans for Belarus and Moldova recently unveiled, and what else have you.

    Whatever concession to Russia would be just justifying their aggression and letting them reinforce their military for yet another conflict that they are sure to come up with. Why would the west do that now that Russia is so weak that even China does not want to commit themselves to much more than extorting cheap oil from them? Sorry for all of the Russia supporters in this thread (who expectedly deny to be Russia supporters), but this is the worst possible moment to let Russia dictate any terms. Stagnation and marginalization in Russia is the key strategy here.

    And please don't come back at me with the nuclear scaremongering. Everyone knows that allowing dictatorships to get what they want by nuclear threats is a no go idea.
    Last edited by Septentrionalis; March 24, 2023 at 03:15 PM.

  16. #7996
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Russia running out of MBTs and resorting to loading conscripts into vehicles from the 1940s may end the war. That's not autarky, that's North Korea.

    Realistically Ukraine is resisting Russia, and unless the US decides to let Russia win they are stuck losing.

    "Russia ain't gonna stop" isn't a reason for the west to stop. Its a testable statement, and it's being tested. The data doesn't look as good for Putin as all our initial theses predicted.

    One can respond "it's cruel for the West to prolong a war", well its cruel to start one and blame accrues to the aggressor. "Russia CAN'T back down" once again, testable, not an article of faith.

    Also mad dog theory only works if have teeth and use them. All the barking and still no bite?
    That's possible yes, but it hasn't happened yet. It wouldn't be the first doom and gloom for Russia story I hear that turned out to be somewhat exaggerated either. Let's not forget, Ukraine is running an excellent propaganda effort. It would be naive to believe that part of that propaganda isn't exactly targeted towards western audiences. If we don't believe Ukraine is winning and Russia about to breathe its last we may be less willing to as overtly support them.

    Realistically, Ukraine is resisting Russia with our backing. Without our backing Ukraine would have lost this war several times by now. Zelensky would be wise to remember that next time he makes some grandiloquent speech about the war ending with Crimea. If Ukraine was fighting alone, Zelensky could be saying whatever he wanted, but that's not the case. Nor am I forgetting his chronic ingratitude and constant demands, not requests, for more aid. Aid we don't owe them. We, in the EU at least, don't owe them anything. An argument could be made for the US I suppose, but that's not really my business.

    No, a reason for the EU to stop is that we are not winning anything out of this. On the contrary.

    It is cruel yes and to your argument that it is cruel for Russia to invade, the classic response fits, one wrong doesn't excuse nor justify another.

    The problem is that the mad bear does have teeth. Nuclear teeth. We haven't seen that yet, in fact we haven't seen the mad part yet at all. But that's a good thing, not an excuse to keep poking.

  17. #7997
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The Eu certainly isn't winning. It's why Germany/France wanted to be more peacemaking/propose a peace treaty, before US stepped in to turn Eu into a vassal to sell hundreds of billions worth of weapons to.
    None of this would have happened, of course, if Eu didn't expand massively in 2004. Britain would still be in too.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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  18. #7998

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I can't see how anyone expects Russia to "go back to the pre-2014 border".
    Collapse of the Russian State from overexertion.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Then again, there's the small issue of even currently Russia occupying roughly 1/5 of Ukraine, which doesn't translate to "Russia is losing".
    Imagine if, over one year into invading, the US only occupied 1/5th of Iraq. That'll put it into proper perspective.
    They give birth astride of a grave, the light gleams an instant, then it's night once more.

  19. #7999
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Sure, then again if Russia/China were sending weapons/money/ammo to Iraq, why expect that invasion by US to have gone as well?
    Nevermind how Iraq was nation-built to three different nations.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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  20. #8000
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    And please don't come back at me with the nuclear scaremongering. Everyone knows that allowing dictatorships to get what they want by nuclear threats is a no go idea.
    It does impose a boundary condition on the outcome of the war. One that means that an argument " We must stop Russia now once and for all" is nonsense. Whatever the outcome, Russia will still be there and so will the possibility of future invasions.

    In terms of deterring Russia from future invasions, the best that can be achieved in this war is to demonstrate the price is not worth paying. And that can be achieved by other means than categorically rejecting territorial concessions.

    I share the concern of some that it is actually the main 'game' the US government is playing to inflict as much damage as possible on Russia, and that it is in fact quite content Ukraine's ambitions go beyond mere self preservation.

    A potential reconquest of Crimea would be an 'interesting' testcase to see where the priorities are.

    Of course that's all extremely hypothetical. For now Ukrainian self preservation aligns fully with inflicting maximum damage on the Russian invaders and I don't see that changing any time soon.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

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