Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Vanoi]

^Can't escalate when you already are in world war.

Have you seen what the deputies in Russia's State Duma say? What Graham said is rather mild to what I've heard from them. Why would words from a senator and not the US outright supplying Ukraine to kill Russian soldiers lead to escalation?

[Kyriakos]

I have not noticed one.

It was about the counter-example used by nhyt (WW2). Doesn't work exactly because we currently are not in a world war.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

It's not about it being a world war, it's about fascists imperialists trying to expand their little empire.

[Kyriakos]

It doesn't work as a counter-example, since we were already in world war then, so there was literally nothing to risk escalating to.

[Alastor]

It would appear this is what Ukraine meant when they said they will retaliate for the recent drone attacks on Kiev: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-65751650

A drone attack on the Russian capital Moscow was launched by Ukraine, Russia's defence ministry has said.

News agency Reuters reported Russia's defence ministry saying: "This morning, the Kyiv regime launched a terrorist drone attack on targets in the city of Moscow.

"Three of them were suppressed by electronic warfare, lost control and deviated from their intended targets.

"Another five drones were shot down by the Pantsir-S surface-to-air missile system in the Moscow region."

There were no reports of deaths.

Ukraine has not publicly acknowledged launching attacks against targets inside Russia.

I do find it interesting that Ukraine keeps denying the obvious. Especially in light of how much more "trustworthy" Ukraine is considered by much of the west. When they blatantly lie, how long before people realize that in a war, nobody is trustworthy? Whatever the case, it would appear that attacks within Russia proper are becoming more common. Considering that Ukraine is effectively armed by NATO, this does mean that NATO is enabling attacks on Russia, rather than just helping Ukraine defend itself. Supposedly this is a bright red line for Russia. It is understandably an escalation. Proxy wars away from home are one thing, actual spillover within the territory of the proxy war target is another. It remains to be seen if and how Russia will respond to this.

[Cyclops]

It doesn't work as a counter-example, since we were already in world war then, so there was literally nothing to risk escalating to.

In WW2 both sides were careful about escalation, for example never using poison gas on a European battlefield. Of course the Nazis committed many war crimes and ramped up escalation at every step until their leader couldn't deal any more and shot himself. He was only able to reach that stage because he had loyal followers prepared to fight to the last ditch. I doubt Putin has such a loyal following.

Putinia is not the Third Reich but Putin is playing the role of provocateur, mixing lies with frequent escalation: Ukraine like the WAllies is escalating in response to aggression and outrage.

Just as Putin is unlike Hitler in life so I think he will be unlike him in death, I suppose he will flee Russia eventually with as much loot as he can get away with.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I really wonder, if there can be any doubt, who is escalating after Russia sending wave after wave of drones and cruise missiles to Kiew to hit the civilian population.

[conon394]

It would appear this is what Ukraine meant when they said they will retaliate for the recent drone attacks on Kiev: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-65751650
I do find it interesting that Ukraine keeps denying the obvious. Especially in light of how much more "trustworthy" Ukraine is considered by much of the west. When they blatantly lie, how long before people realize that in a war, nobody is trustworthy? Whatever the case, it would appear that attacks within Russia proper are becoming more common. Considering that Ukraine is effectively armed by NATO, this does mean that NATO is enabling attacks on Russia, rather than just helping Ukraine defend itself. Supposedly this is a bright red line for Russia. It is understandably an escalation. Proxy wars away from home are one thing, actual spillover within the territory of the proxy war target is another. It remains to be seen if and how Russia will respond to this.

Seems like a pretty minor annoyance operation at best. Not sure any red lines are being crossed nor Ukraine lying. This was certainly not a dozen reaper drones orbiting moscow raining down hellfire missiles.

[Vanoi]

Seems like a pretty minor annoyance operation at best. Not sure any red lines are being crossed nor Ukraine lying. This was certainly not a dozen reaper drones orbiting moscow raining down hellfire missiles.

I think HIMARs were the last red line that Russia imposed. Or was it long-range weapons? Not sure. Either way they should take a lesson from Obama. Don't make red lines you aren't willing to enforce.

EDIT: https://www.newsweek.com/skabayeva-r...eapons-1710886

Russia didn't bother to enforce it's last red line.

[Laser101]

I think HIMARs were the last red line that Russia imposed. Or was it long-range weapons? Not sure. Either way they should take a lesson from Obama. Don't make red lines you aren't willing to enforce.

Which is probably the reason why the Russians are not specific about what they are; it's far more efficient to let your opponent come to conclusions on their own.

[Vanoi]

Which is probably the reason why the Russians are not specific about what they are; it's far more efficient to let your opponent come to conclusions on their own.

That just means you allow them to push boundaries. The threats of red lines and such only mean as much as you are willing to enforce them. Otherwise your rivals take advantage of you.

At best Russia's threats have caused hesitation on what weapons to supply. But that's pretty much over. Ukrainian pilots are already being set up to train on F-16s.

[conon394]

That just means you allow them to push boundaries. The threats of red lines and such only mean as much as you are willing to enforce them. Otherwise your rivals take advantage of you.

At best Russia's threats have caused hesitation on what weapons to supply. But that's pretty much over. Ukrainian pilots are already being set up to train on F-16s.

David Axe over at FOrbes pointed one reason that F-16s matter is it will let Ukraine use the HARM missiles they are getting in the designed way, Seemingly the ad hoc patch to get them on there own planes means they are being used pretty much the least efficient way possible. Better than nothing so far but well away from ideal.

[Alastor]

Seems like a pretty minor annoyance operation at best. Not sure any red lines are being crossed nor Ukraine lying. This was certainly not a dozen reaper drones orbiting moscow raining down hellfire missiles.

A dozen reaper drones raining hellfire on Moscow? They don't have the means to do that. Ukraine can't attack Russia on equal terms, they are not equal powers. Hence my belief this is more about symbolism. Plus, of course, the psychological effect. They want the population of Moscow to feel the war. As far as lying goes, if you haven't noticed Ukraine lying, then I can only assume you haven't been paying enough attention. Unless you really believe those Russian "revolutionaries" are acting independently.

David Axe over at FOrbes pointed one reason that F-16s matter is it will let Ukraine use the HARM missiles they are getting in the designed way, Seemingly the ad hoc patch to get them on there own planes means they are being used pretty much the least efficient way possible. Better than nothing so far but well away from ideal.

I really wonder about those F16s. You'll get a bunch of Ukrainian pilots, train then for a month or two on a completely different plane and then what? Set them loose to attack a Russia protected by S400s? Will a bunch of F16s actually have a measurable effect on Ukraine's war effort, or just serve to make Russia even more belligerent and willing to escalate?

[conon394]

A dozen reaper drones raining hellfire on Moscow? They don't have the means to do that

Err which is what I said.

Hence my belief this is more about symbolism. Plus, of course, the psychological effect. They want the population of Moscow to feel the war.

That seems self evident

As far as lying goes, if you haven't noticed Ukraine lying, then I can only assume you haven't been paying enough attention. Unless you really believe those Russian "revolutionaries" are acting independently.

This was the lying you meant I though you were suggesting Ukraine was using western drones for Moscow. Umm this seems shrug worthy.

I really wonder about those F16s. You'll get a bunch of Ukrainian pilots, train then for a month or two on a completely different plane and then what? Set them loose to attack a Russia protected by S400s? Will a bunch of F16s actually have a measurable effect on Ukraine's war effort, or just serve to make Russia even

One could have made the same argument about a few dozen western MRLS systems as well and people did yet they seemed to have a significant impact. Seems to me Ukraine is likely flying their existing aging stock of planes into the ground even with old Polish and Slovakian cast offs added in and maybe a round of spare parts from all about. The F-16s will be an advance of the those. Seemingly they will allow proper use of western weaponry. Given that I don't think the war will end tomorrow or this year they do allow Ukraine to at minimum maintain the status quo of no russian air superiority. They do potentially force Russian to be more cautious with the front line air defense and certainty add to Ukraine's ability to counter cruise missiles.

[Alastor]

Err which is what I said.

No, what you said is this is "a minor annoyance at best". As I have explained, it is a lot more than just that.

This was the lying you meant I though you were suggesting Ukraine was using western drones for Moscow. Umm this seems shrug worthy.

No, it is not shrug worthy. It is a lie. And it's not the only one. The point here is that we need to remember that truth is the first casualty of war. And it's not just Russia that killed it.

One could have made the same argument about a few dozen western MRLS systems as well and people did yet they seemed to have a significant impact. Seems to me Ukraine is likely flying their existing aging stock of planes into the ground even with old Polish and Slovakian cast offs added in and maybe a round of spare parts from all about. The F-16s will be an advance of the those. Seemingly they will allow proper use of western weaponry. Given that I don't think the war will end tomorrow or this year they do allow Ukraine to at minimum maintain the status quo of no russian air superiority. They do potentially force Russian to be more cautious with the front line air defense and certainty add to Ukraine's ability to counter cruise missiles.

Do S400s shoot MRLS off the sky? Not exactly. As such the comparison is not particularly apt. How many F16s are we planning to send anyway? Hundreds? Not gonna happen. They wouldn't even have the pilots for that. At most, they'll get a handful. Aside from enflaming Russia further, what will they do? And this isn't a rhetorical question btw. I really do wonder.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

It doesn't work as a counter-example, since we were already in world war then, so there was literally nothing to risk escalating to.

Before the war, the allies were afraid of escalation and allowed Hitler to take Austria and Czechoslovakia. Did that work in preventing escalation? No.

[Kyriakos]

Before the war, the allies were afraid of escalation and allowed Hitler to take Austria and Czechoslovakia. Did that work in preventing escalation? No.

That's not what happened. Britain/France needed time to prepare their armies for the war they knew was coming. It's why they did absolutely nothing when Germany remilitarized the Rhineland before any wars.
Then again, Germany wasn't a nuclear power either.
Not that it matters, since no one seriously expects the US public to be into world war. Which is why they'd do well to put a lease on morons like senator Graham.

[conon394]

That's not what happened. Britain/France needed time to prepare their armies for the war they knew was coming.

And yet in fact they did not prepare their militaries for the war that was coming. Given how ill prepared Hitler was for war they would have started out no worse off over a war with Hitler invading Czechoslovakia than the one ended up with over Poland (where they talked Poland into not fully mobizing and so were still looking for an exit - and shafted Poland). No good way to paper over simple bad policy based on fear and pink pony thinking.


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@Alastor

No, what you said is this is "a minor annoyance at best". As I have explained, it is a lot more than just that.

Trivial attacks within Ukraine's right I call them.

No, it is not shrug worthy. It is a lie. And it's not the only one. The point here is that we need to remember that truth is the first casualty of war. And it's not just Russia that killed it.

Still seems again trivial and embarrassment for Russia and fairly unimportant. All of Europe shrugged at Putin's lies back in 2014 seems like Ukraine deserves some little green men

Do S400s shoot MRLS off the sky? Not exactly. As such the comparison is not particularly apt. How many F16s are we planning to send anyway? Hundreds? Not gonna happen. They wouldn't even have the pilots for that. At most, they'll get a handful. Aside from enflaming Russia further, what will they do? And this isn't a rhetorical question btw. I really do wonder.

Enflamming Russia seems like something not to worry about. UKraine sorta did that by not folding.

But I pointed out what they will do.

They upgrade Ukraines airfare so it can continue to at minimum maintain the status quo.

That status is based on old airframes, now likely very much overworked that have no existing logistial tail except at this point the last few planes Poland can toss over and maybe some hanger queens lying about in other ex PACT countries.

The ability to use NATO weaponry to it maximum capacity.

[Alastor]

Trivial attacks within Ukraine's right I call them.

Again, I explained the purpose these attacks serve and that is not trivial. Also I never discussed whether Ukraine has "the right" to do that.

Still seems again trivial and embarrassment for Russia and fairly unimportant. All of Europe shrugged at Putin's lies back in 2014 seems like Ukraine deserves some little green men

Yet again 2 wrongs don't make a right. This hypocritical stance that 2 wrongs make a right when its the side we like committing the 2nd one needs to end. If we were wrong to believe Putin's lies, then we are wrong to believe Zelensky's lies also. Consistency is sth I value.

Enflamming Russia seems like something not to worry about. UKraine sorta did that by not folding.

This is a dangerous mentality to have. Russia is not some toothless little bearcub, no matter how much our press is trying to convince us that it is. There is a lot of room for escalation still and I personally would not like to see that happening. So let's not flagrantly goad Russia towards that direction.

But I pointed out what they will do.

They upgrade Ukraines airfare so it can continue to at minimum maintain the status quo.

That status is based on old airframes, now likely very much overworked that have no existing logistial tail except at this point the last few planes Poland can toss over and maybe some hanger queens lying about in other ex PACT countries.

The ability to use NATO weaponry to it maximum capacity.

I really don't see that as a significant impact. But then again I haven't seen the airforce playing an important enough role at all throughout this war. So it could be that I am biased that way.

[Sar1n]

I really don't see that as a significant impact. But then again I haven't seen the airforce playing an important enough role at all throughout this war. So it could be that I am biased that way.

Air force is not playing important role due to density of SAMs on battlefield. HARM is a missile specifically designed to home on radars and thus blind the SAMs and punch a hole in the enemy defense that could be exploited. The usual US MO is to follow up with medium to high altitude precision bombing using JDAM equipped bombs and other precision munitions, to stay out of range of flak and MANPADS. No side is currently capable of such actions, but if Ukraine gets fully equipped F-16s...things will change. Of course, it won't be a one-sided beatdown like Iraq in 2003, but they'll make a big impact on the battlefield.