Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

The index was mentioned in relation to Ukraine being so corrupt it needed to be invaded. Demonstrating that Putin's Russia has a worse rating, and is considered "not free", is a fair counter to that argument.

If that was the argument discussed, then that is laughable, I did not really read back. But it doesn't mean we need to go to the other side of things and start claiming Ukraine is that much better.

Both states are highly problematic and that's that.

[bitterhowl]

Some opinion about genocide.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...rmful-00025329


Change "Netflix" to "HBO" here and you will get "Chernobyl". That's all I can say for you about this.

[Bande Nere]

You said and I quote:
The democratic bastion part 1)is inferred from the general descriptions/attitude I see, not necessarily sth you said.

You can make whatever assumptions you want from that, but they are just that assumptions. 2)Russia has seen a similar improvement since 2008 for instance. What assumptions can be made from that? I don't know and it's not the point.

3)I did not make any assumptions, I only gave links to sources measuring the corruption index showing both states to be similarly corrupt. Yet you are combative and taking issue. Ok, whatever.

1) so you make assumptions too. Except you assume what people believe.

2) Are you sure? Because it appears it went from 28% in 2013(UKR 25% same year) to 29% in 2021(UKR 32% same year). 1 percentage point Vs. 7. And the one that got better was the one at war and victim of russian sabotage for 8 years. These are facts, not opinions.

3) So "Russia has seen a similar improvement since 2008 for instance", in view of point 2, data you provided, is still an unbiased statement in your opinion?

I said that Ukraine appears to be working on their corruption, unlike Russia. Numbers you provided appear to prove my statement. And yes, I also did say that Russia is much worse than Ukraine, which is true.

Italy, an EU member, did a 13% jump in that same span of years, 6 points more than Ukraine and 12 more than Russia. With no one violently taking away parts of their territory nor being subject to excessive russian influence and sabotage like Ukraine. Ukraine wants to join the EU, not the Russosphere. What does that tell you?


EDIT: To be fair, Russia did make a jump since 2008, and in retrospect considering the global crisis that started that year that might not have been the best year to use an an example.

[Alastor]

1) so you make assumptions too. Except you assume what people believe.

2) Are you sure? Because it appears it went from 28% in 2013(UKR 25% same year) to 29% in 2021(UKR 32% same year). 1 percentage point Vs. 7. And the one that got better was the one at war and victim of russian sabotage for 8 years. These are facts, not opinions.

3) So "Russia has seen a similar improvement since 2008 for instance", in view of point 2, data you provided, is still an unbiased statement in your opinion?

I said that Ukraine appears to be working on their corruption, unlike Russia. Numbers you provided appear to prove my statement. And yes, I also did say that Russia is much worse than Ukraine, which is true.

Italy, an EU member, did a 13% jump in that same span of years, 6 points more than Ukraine and 12 more than Russia. With no one violently taking away parts of their territory nor being subject to excessive russian influence and sabotage like Ukraine. Ukraine wants to join the EU, not the Russosphere. What does that tell you?

1) An assumption and an inferral are not equivalents.
2) Ukraine 2008: 25% 2021: 32% difference 7%
Russia 2008: 21% 2021: 29% difference 8%
3) Yes, see 2.

[Bande Nere]

@Alastor I'd just noticed my mistake and edited accordingly

[Alastor]

@Alastor I'd just noticed my mistake and edited accordingly

Fair enough.

[Laser101]

Some opinion about genocide.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...rmful-00025329

While I don't disagree with the argument made here, I don't think that this is quite as much of a point as you think it is. It's quite possible for Russia's conduct to be considered reprehensible even if it technically doesn't meet the definition of genocide per se​.

[Bande Nere]

Some opinion about genocide.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...rmful-00025329


Change "Netflix" to "HBO" here and you will get "Chernobyl". That's all I can say for you about this.

Small issue in his opinion. He's using the Holocaust as the base for what is a genocide. But the holodomor was a genocide too. The forced removal of Armenians was a genocide, even the Trail of Tears was a genocide. They can take various forms but the result is the same.
Today we see mass murders of civilians in occupied areas as well as rapes, detention of "antirussians", the continuos negation of Ukrainians as a people by Putin for decades, the decades long propaganda campaign to make Ukraine look like a big scary wolf to his own people, the Enemy. The kidnapping of half a million Ukrainains so far, the idea of re-education camps to "de-nazify" ukrainians, at least 4 million refugees and 10 million internally displaced ATM, etc...

At what point does it stop being simple "egregious violence" and starts being called a genocide? 1 million kidnapped Ukrainians? 5?


Words are better than memes, BH. Unless you are trying to convince me Chernobyl was nothing more than a tv series. I want your opinion on what happened there. WHy is it so hard for you to answer me? I'm not asking for an analysis of the god particle. Rather simple stuff.

[conon394]

T. Putin may be desperate enough to wake the Transnistrian sleeping dragon.

Seems more like Ukraine over runs that quickly and hands it back over to Moldova.

[Ludicus]

Meirsheimer is right.To sum up,
1) “The solution is that Ukraine abandons any interest in becoming a part of NATO and becoming a western bulwark on Russia’s border. The solution is to Ukraine to become a neutral country and work out some sort of modus vivendi with Russia;
2)Zelensky has very little maneuver room because on his right are a large number of Ukrainians who don’t want him to make any concessions to the Russians and those far-right elements coupled with America’s unwillingness to see Russia win in any way means that Ukraine itself is unlikely to be able to push for neutral country.

Poor Ukraine, caught between a rock and a hard place. As Meirsheimer has put it, “It would be a humiliating defeat for the US and especially for President Biden, if we were to lose this war,and Russia was to win a great victory, we will go to great lengths to keep Ukraine fighting. As I’ve often said, we’re going to fight to the last Ukrainian.

We are all aware that the United States will never allow the possibility of Washington being nuked in less than 5 minutes.US tested hypersonic missile in mid-March

Russia warns of nuclear, hypersonic deployment if Sweden and Finland join NATO

Medvedev also explicitly raised the nuclear threat by saying that there could be no more talk of a "nuclear free" Baltic - where Russia has its Kaliningrad exclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania.

----

Even more than the German President Steinmeier himself, it was Olaf Scholz who reacted "angrily" to the cancellation of the Ukrainian invitation, stressing for his part that he himself has no intention of visiting Kiev. Yesterday, the German government sent to the press the text of the Ukrainian note that arrived at the German Embassy in Kiev at 3:28 pm on Tuesday. Here, use google translate. Frank-Walter Steinmeier: Um 15.28 Uhr kam die Absage aus ...

German chancellor 'stalling on heavy weaponry to Ukraine'

Germany’s chancellor is under growing pressure to authorise the delivery of heavy weaponry to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia’s looming eastern offensive, with Olaf Scholz’s coalition partners accusing him of failing to live up to his promises. Scholz’s party also say Germany should not deliver heavy weapons to Ukraine until Nato allies reach a joint decision to do so. So far, only the Czech Republic has confirmed that it has sent T-72 tanks and BVP-1 infantry fighting vehicles

The SPD is under attack, Annalena Baerbock is in sync with Biden,she/the Greens are shaping Germany’s Russia policy. I will return to this subject of European Greens foreign policy,on the 21st of this month and you will understand why I say this. And then we will also talk about what the word "freedom" really means.For Zelensky - and for a truly democrat.

[conon394]

Meirsheimer is right wrong

err fixed that

Why is he right? Why should a state have agree to its own rape. So to be odious ludicus you say a women should just relax and enjoy a rape? You would say than that North Vietnam, was wrong and the dead are in fact the result not of the US but rather North Vietnam not agreeing the a US a great power and it backed South Vietnam?

Zelensky has very little maneuver room because on his right are a large number of Ukrainians who don’t want him to make any concessions to the Russians and those far-right elements coupled with America’s unwillingness to see Russia win in any way means that Ukraine itself is unlikely to be able to push for neutral country.

The electoral support and support he has and the maintains under siege make that a ridiculous statement.

Russia warns of nuclear, hypersonic deployment if Sweden and Finland join NATO

No reasons they cannot voluntarily join NATO. Oh wait lets see Putin is Russia. Russia is a supposed Great Power so it get its way wherever it says it gets its way. This does not apply to the US apparently... I suppose it does apply to China so goodby Taiwan. But what about the poor people of A-stan. Surly thay should accommodate the US a great power if they the Taliban wants money it never owned nor was not given to it?

[reavertm]

"Marshmallow" is wrong.
And he contradicts himself.
He argued that Ukraine should not have given up its post-Soviet nuclear arsenal. He was correct.
Now he argues Ukraine should abandon pursuing NATO to stay neutral.
Who according to this kindergarden strategist, I mean highly regarded political scientist is supposed to guarantee Ukrainian declared neutrality? Putin, who already violated guarantees Russian Federation gave to Ukraine? US by warning it will nuke Russia next time it puts foot on Ukrainian soil?
Only Ukraine in NATO or Ukraine having nuclear arsenal can guarantee Ukraine territorial integrity. Second is not going to happen anytime soon.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

You would say than that North Vietnam, was wrong and the dead are in fact the result not of the US but rather the North Vietnam not excepting the a US a great power backed South Vietnam?

I'm eager to see the mental gymnastic, why in that case North Vietnam had the right to resistance.

[conon394]

I would just like to see the consistency. It not fair that you can pick a choose. A - it is violation of hard IRT, B is a violation of international law and norms. C is violating international law to try and do some good when international law fails. D is being mean to the people and cruel because I have a better solution that I simply still have in the box. E - Entity X is always wrong and thus well reasons.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I would tip its always X for some. ^^

Edit:

About the storm, in which the Moskwa shall be sunk:

There was no storm on 14th April 2022 in the Black Sea:

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/mode...414-1200z.html

[conon394]

I am surprised Russia did not go with a cowardly attack by the Nazi Azov battalion(s) we need to declare a state of emergency and thus be able to use the newest conscripts and reserves ASAP sans training to simply overwhelm Ukraine

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Scholz on Ukraine: More than one billion euros in military aid

Chancellor Scholz wants to provide a total of two billion euros in further military aid. Of this, significantly more than one billion euros should go to Ukraine, as the ARD capital studio learned.

Most recently, the pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the federal government to give Ukraine more support was great. Scholz has now announced that it will provide a total of two billion euros in additional military aid - significantly more than one billion euros of which will go directly to Ukraine, as the ARD capital studio learned. The Ukrainians can use it to buy the weapons they want - in consultation with the US and other partners.

Should they buy weapons from Germany, this export would have to be approved by Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck. The money is to be paid as part of the federal government's upgrading initiative. Another 400 million euros from the overall package are therefore intended for the European Peace Facility, which buys weapons for Ukraine. The remaining 400 million euros are for other countries.

Additional expenses

According to information from the Reuters news agency, the government has already agreed on the significant increase in funds for military aid in the supplementary budget. The two billion euros are therefore not part of the Bundeswehr's special assets of 100 billion euros as a result of the war in Ukraine, but are additional expenses.

Ukraine had repeatedly asked the federal government to also supply heavy weapons. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba demanded from Scholz a quick commitment to further German arms deliveries. "I hope that Scholz will make a positive decision," said Kuleba on Thursday evening in the daily topics. Arguments against a delivery of the required weapons are not valid.

The Chancellor's course also caused dissatisfaction in Germany. In the debate about the delivery of heavy weapons, Scholz was recently openly criticized for his hesitant attitude by the FDP, Greens and SPD factions. "The chancellor is the problem," said the Greens' European politician Anton Hofreiter to the "Spiegel". "Germany has to take responsibility in Europe - and that's where the chancellor is most important," said Hofreiter. "Regardless of which European countries I'm traveling to at the moment, I always encounter the question: Where is Germany?" the chairman of the Europe Committee pointed out. Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck also advocated an increase in arms deliveries to Ukraine. "More weapons must come," said the Green politician to the newspapers of the Funke media group.
"Very quick action is required now"

The FDP also accused Scholz of hesitation. "Very quick action is now the order of the day," said defense politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann in the "Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung" with a view to the new large-scale Russian offensive looming in eastern Ukraine. When asked whether there was a procrastinator in the Chancellery, she answered "Yes" on Deutschlandfunk. "If Russia wins this war against Ukraine, there will be a risk of new military conflicts in Moldova, in Georgia and presumably also in the western Balkans," SPD foreign policy expert Michael Roth also advocated more German involvement.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz sharply attacked Scholz. His behavior endangers "the cohesion of the entire international community towards Russia," Merz told the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung". As examples, he cited the chancellor's hesitation in supplying arms, but also his previous refusal to travel to Kyiv. Merz demanded that there should finally be clarity about what Germany wants to do and whether it wants to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine. "We want to know what is being delivered and, above all, why the federal government does not want to deliver available material," said the CDU leader. He pointed to growing doubts about the reliability of the government.

So far, as far as is known, Germany has mainly sent Panzerfausts, machine guns and anti-aircraft missiles as well as steel helmets to the Ukraine. When asked about heavy weapons - including tanks - Scholz has so far reacted evasively.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/sch...hilfe-101.html

I guess 1 billion EUR free money to buy the weapons from whom they want is a good option.

[z3n]

Is USAs willingness to use SWIFT as a big stick going to break that very stick?

[Condottiere 40K]

1. You're watching national and international power dynamics t play.


2. In real time.


3. The Greens have become pragmatic.


4. And the centre of gravity appears to have shifted to Poland.


5. The Ukrainian government is now explaining why they appeared to disbelief the American intelligence that the Russians would invade at a specific date.


6. Considering that Zelensky's inner circle had publicly forecast three years previously that Twenty Twenty Two would be the latest that Putin would invade.


7. Firstly, they didn't want panic and two to ten million refugees filling the roads, which would have paralyzed administration and movement of troops.


8. Sounds like France in Nineteen Forty.


9. Second, it would activate the Russian sleeper agents and cells, before Kiev was prepared to deal with them.


A. One hysterical Russian female presenter claims that Russia is fighting World War Three against NATO.


B. Depending on who you belief, there were five hundred to five hundred fifty personnel aboard the Moskva.


C. It's claimed only fifty eight were saved.


D. Kremlin threatens to declare war against Ukraine, if the Ukrainians don't stop attacking Russian cities.


E. Probably the first step to mass conscription.


F. Ukraine states that Mariupol will not fall.


G. Seems somewhat optimistic.


H. Also, that Putin might use nuclear weapons/


I. Cautiously optimistic.


J. I'm not sure how having run out of money, besides lack of high technological components, stops Russian tank production.


K. Unless the Russian government doesn't pay on time, or at all.


L. Ukrainian pilot trying to crowdfund a combat aircraft.


M. Maybe the Russians could crowdfund some more tanks.


N. Sixty thousand anti tank man portable guided weapon systems in Ukraine.


O. Pretty sure that's more than five or six times the number of vehicles the Russians have in Ukraine.


P. Twenty five thousand anti aircraft missiles.


R. No Loitering Zone.


S. Ukraine generously offers not to sink any Russian ship that exits the Black Sea.


T. One estimate is that the Russians have six thousand tanks in storage.


U. Of which half should be salvageable.


V. Probably twenty five hundred in active service at the start of the special military operation.


U. Which means one and a half to two kay still in tact at this point.


V. NATO did promise there will be ten anti tank missile weapon systems per Russian tank.


W. We'll assume the German contribution(s) will arrive in time when the first massed formations of conscripts and reservists are deployed in Ukraine.


X. I'm going to guess September.


Y. Speaking of which, where are those forty thousand Syrians, Libyans and Wagnerians?


Z. Welcome to the Hotel California.

[Cyclops]

Russia's campaign still not going that well. "Moskva promoted to submarine" and "Floatn't" memes are killing them online, and I feel bad for their brave internet advocates who are fighting hard but being given the kind of support the VDV got in week one. It seemed inconceivable Russia could blow this, but now...

If that was the argument discussed, then that is laughable, I did not really read back. But it doesn't mean we need to go to the other side of things and start claiming Ukraine is that much better.

Both states are highly problematic and that's that.

Yes its a bit like the Saudis and Yemen (I mean relatively, obviously Russia is a better behaved state than the frickin' Saudis, everyone is). All things being equal I'm not looking to visit either, but there's the small problem one of them invaded the other. In that context, I am all for the aggrieved party choking the aggressor to death.

We (vaguely democratic-ish states) like to pump up our side in a war. In WWII there was money spent humanising "Uncle Joe" Stalin. My dear old mum told me of her confusion as a young woman when she was told good old "Uncle Joe" was, in fact, a milkshake duck. If Russia loses this and Zelensky doesn't play ball with the West we will have to crank up the machines again like we did with the brave mujahedeen/evil Taliban all over again.