Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Bande Nere]

So, BH or any other Russian, I would actually like to know what you know about Chernobyl.

This is important.

[conon394]

So not sure if it has formally been mentioned yet. But looks Finland and Sweden to NATO. So good play their Putin as a 'great power' Leader. I don't know but you really are not play 12th dimensional chess anymore and if I was your 4 handed Pinochle partner I walk out of the game - you seem to have bid up over 30 with a ace and a marriage and partner who passed. Also note can't see the veto of the Serb part of Bosnia plan to seize government property getting such a smack down but for Putin's action and its impact on the EU and NATO.

[z3n]

So I've been following the Mariupol situation quite closely and here's the current situation.

1) Russia has been able to bisect the defenders into at least two pockets
2) One pocket is at a steel plant and contains roughly 4000 fighters
3) 1000 of these men reportedly surrendered today, including a famous foreign fighter from Britain
4) Aiden (the foreign fighter) confirms they ran out of ammo, food and morale


In conclusion Mariupol may fall within the week or next two weeks at most.

It will be interesting to see what happens after it falls, as that's basically the most important city for the Russians strategically in this campaign.

[conon394]

So I've been following the Mariupol situation quite closely and here's the current situation.

1) Russia has been able to bisect the defenders into at least two pockets
2) One pocket is at a steel plant and contains roughly 4000 fighters
3) 1000 of these men reportedly surrendered today, including a famous foreign fighter from Britain
4) Aiden (the foreign fighter) confirms they ran out of ammo, food and morale


In conclusion Mariupol may fall within the week or next two weeks at most.

It will be interesting to see what happens after it falls, as that's basically the most important city for the Russians strategically in this campaign.

Not sure it is that important anymore. As walk in the park and be greeted as liberators it was and not all broken up... But now its hard so what chipper not exhausted troops Russia can redirect out of the siege on dime that will be useful. It really comes down to if Russia is committed to a scrape everything together for good or ill at the Donbas push now or rather do what is should - which is declare war /state of emergency and call up the reserves and conscripts and wait at least 2 months and just pin the Ukraine with constant cheap artillery disruption and probing attacks. NATO and the even the US and UK are still dragging their feet feet on heavy gear so the saber rattling still got to them and they over worry escalation. Question is how Putin sees that go for Donbas now and declare victory or figure that waiting for a bigger blow for all the marbles can work because waiting will see NATO resolve ebb.

3) 1000 of these men reportedly surrendered today, including a famous foreign fighter from Britain

Yet at the same time the Ukraine reports some Marine unites with equipment managed to consolidate to the largest pocket. Suppose it be a few days to know what is what. Still not a good look for a Russian effort on Kviv down the road for example.

[z3n]

Not sure it is that important anymore. As walk in the park and be greeted as liberators it was and not all broken up... But now its hard so what chipper not exhausted troops Russia can redirect out of the siege on dime that will be useful. It really comes down to if Russia is committed to a scrape everything together for good or ill at the Donbas push now or rather do what is should - which is declare war /state of emergency and call up the reserves and conscripts and wait at least 2 months and just pin the Ukraine with constant cheap artillery disruption and probing attacks. NATO and the even the US and UK are still dragging their feet feet on heavy gear so the saber rattling still got to them and they over worry escalation. Question is how Putin sees that go for Donbas now and declare victory or figure that waiting for a bigger blow for all the marbles can work because waiting will see NATO resolve ebb.



Yet at the same time the Ukraine reports some Marine unites with equipment managed to consolidate to the largest pocket. Suppose it be a few days to know what is what. Still not a good look for a Russian effort on Kviv down the road for example.

That directly conflicts with Aiden, who has no reason to lie to his family. He was from the 36th, which is the 1000 man unit which surrendered. He directly said "we" in relation to everything, referring to his unit. I suggest reading the BBC analysis more closely.


Mariupol is important, downplaying it's importance from a morale, strategic, or economic point of view seems wrong.



I just realized you probably missed the BBC analysis section of the article, here it is:

Analysis

By Emma Vardy, BBC News correspondent

Aiden had been due to get married last week to his Ukrainian fiancée.

But his unit had become increasingly cut off as Russian forces bombarded the city of Mariupol in recent weeks, and Aiden's family and loved ones have had an extremely anxious wait as the situation deteriorated.

Aiden had been in communication periodically, sometimes sending video updates of himself to friends to post on social media, or just checking in to let his family know he was safe.

But the news that he was having to surrender has been a huge blow.

There are now Russian reports coming out claiming the 36th Marine Brigade have surrendered, which Aiden's family understand is his unit, though his family have heard nothing further since his initial phone calls.

Aiden is no newcomer to the perils of conflict. Before joining the Ukrainian forces, he had previously left the UK to fight in Syria against IS, fighting with the Kurdish armed group the YPG.

To the Kurds he is a hero, although he and many others like him faced questioning by counter-terrorism police when they returned to the UK. Most cases were eventually dropped.

Now what has happened to him in Ukraine is uncertain. When Aiden spoke to his family it appeared his unit were communicating with the Russians in what appeared to be preparation for a negotiated surrender.

The key question is what would happen if he were to be taken as a prisoner of war? His friends have appealed on social media for Aiden and his unit to be treated in accordance with the Geneva conventions.

The UK's Foreign Office is working to verify reports of UK nationals like Aiden involved in the fighting. But given the situation, it is likely that the Foreign Office's powers will be quite limited.
line
Aiden AslinImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Aiden Aslin has become a Ukrainian marine

Russia has claimed more than 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers have surrendered in Mariupol but Ukraine says the city is still standing despite being under siege.

Mariupol's mayor said about 21,000 civilians had been killed with another 100,000 awaiting evacuation.

The city's fate is likely to be critical for the next phase of the war.

In Russian hands, it would provide control of a clear swathe of territory connecting Moscow's two fronts in the south and east.

Also even if we were to believe they somehow didn't surrender despite all the evidence to the contrary, with what ammo and food would they fight on with???

[Alastor]

It will be interesting to see what happens after it falls, as that's basically the most important city for the Russians strategically in this campaign.

I would argue that the most strategically important city was Kiev, not Mariupol. Russia needed to capture Kiev in order to install a puppet regime and effectively control the next day. Without Kiev, Russia doesn't have a proper exit strategy, so the fighting will continue for longer.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

So I've been following the Mariupol situation quite closely and here's the current situation.

1) Russia has been able to bisect the defenders into at least two pockets
2) One pocket is at a steel plant and contains roughly 4000 fighters
3) 1000 of these men reportedly surrendered today, including a famous foreign fighter from Britain
4) Aiden (the foreign fighter) confirms they ran out of ammo, food and morale


In conclusion Mariupol may fall within the week or next two weeks at most.

It will be interesting to see what happens after it falls, as that's basically the most important city for the Russians strategically in this campaign.

The 36th linked up with Azov, the commanders of both made a joint video statements (and confirmed that some of the 36th surrendered).

[z3n]

I would argue that the most strategically important city was Kiev, not Mariupol. Russia needed to capture Kiev in order to install a puppet regime and effectively control the next day. Without Kiev, Russia doesn't have a proper exit strategy, so the fighting will continue for longer.

In a fake war where Ukraine rolled over like they did in 2014 I'd agree with you, but in a real war like this (despite Russia not being in a total war footing) the land bridge to Crimea is by far the most important part of establishing a series of supply lines from East to South.

The 36th linked up with Azov, the commanders of both made a joint video statements (and confirmed that some of the 36th surrendered).

They've been attempting to use helicopters to move their commanders around, and Russia admitted some Ukranian helicopters were successful in moving VIPs like the commanders around. So I'm not sure that proves the 36th linked up with them. Interesting they confirmed some surrendered though. The BBC analysis talks about a negotiated surrender.

[Alastor]

In a fake war where Ukraine rolled over like they did in 2014 I'd agree with you, but in a real war like this (despite Russia not being in a total war footing) the land bridge to Crimea is by far the most important part of establishing a series of supply lines from East to South.

They already have a bridge to the Crimea in Kerch, as well as effective control of the Azov sea and the environs of Mariupol. I don't see why the city itself is that crucial to those supply lines. But furthermore, I don't see how control of Mariupol helps Russia end the war. A strategic goal should have that in mind. The regime in Kiev won't stop fighting when Mariupol inevitably falls, as it will if this pressure continues, neither will Russia be satisfied by this meager victory anyway. Add that Russia can't destroy, or even impair, Ukraine's ability to fight back by taking Mariupol and its importance diminishes further. Taking Mariupol would perhaps boost morale, but even that comes with some doubt, it would be a pyrrhic win and Ukrainian propaganda has proven a lot more effective than Russian propaganda so far.

Capturing Kiev on the other hand would have been another story. If Russia can't capture Kiev, they need a new exit strategy fast and even taking the whole of the Donbas won't do them much good with a hostile Ukraine next door getting more and more nice toys from the west.

[z3n]

They already have a bridge to the Crimea in Kerch, as well as effective control of the Azov sea and the environs of Mariupol. I don't see why the city itself is that crucial to those supply lines. But furthermore, I don't see how control of Mariupol helps Russia end the war. A strategic goal should have that in mind. The regime in Kiev won't stop fighting when Mariupol inevitably falls, as it will if this pressure continues, neither will Russia be satisfied by this meager victory anyway. Add that Russia can't destroy, or even impair, Ukraine's ability to fight back by taking Mariupol and its importance diminishes further. Taking Mariupol would perhaps boost morale, but even that comes with some doubt, it would be a pyrrhic win and Ukrainian propaganda has proven a lot more effective than Russian propaganda so far.

Capturing Kiev on the other hand would have been another story. If Russia can't capture Kiev, they need a new exit strategy fast and even taking the whole of the Donbas won't do them much good with a hostile Ukraine next door getting more and more nice toys from the west.

Ehh. Since ancient times strategists knew that you have to conquer the castle before you can claim you control a strip of land.

[Ludicus]

It seems to me and according to the German Constitution, the President represents the Federal Republic of Germany. I would be surprised if there will be no political repercussions.No country likes to see its President humiliated.

As expected,
Zelenskyy's Steinmeier snub triggers backlash in Germany

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to declare his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier unwelcome in Kyiv has triggered dismay among German politicians and warnings that the move may backfire.
The move was a humiliation for Steinmeier but also for Germany as a whole. As federal president, Steinmeier is the highest-ranking representative of the German state.
While understanding the existential threat to Ukraine posed by the Russian invasion, I expect Ukrainian representatives to adhere to a minimum level of diplomatic manners and not unduly interfere in our country’s domestic politics,” said Rolf Mützenich, the parliamentary group leader of the center-left Social Democrats, the party of both Steinmeier and Scholz.
Michael Roth, the chair of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee, told POLITICO that he was “disappointed” by Zelenskyy’s decision.
“He [Steinmeier] would have traveled as the highest representative of our country with a clear signal: We stand by Ukraine — in words and deeds. It’s a pity,”
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann from the Free Democratic Party (FDP)... told ZDF television that Zelenskyy’s decision was “not friendly”
Wolfgang Kubicki, an FDP MP, warned that if Zelenskyy’s aim had indeed been to push Scholz into visiting Kyiv and proclaiming a new level of military support, the Ukrainian leader’s actions may have been counterproductive.
“I can’t imagine the chancellor of a government supported by the FDP traveling to a country that declares our country’s head of state an undesirable person,” Kubicki told the German press agency DPA.
Jacques Schuster, chief commentator for German daily Welt, argued that “Zelenskyy should not overstep the mark”

[Alastor]

Ehh. Since ancient times strategists knew that you have to conquer the castle before you can claim you control a strip of land.

If their goal is simply the conquest of some land yes. But that doesn't win them the war, nor answers the question I raised. This isn't "ancient times" anymore.

[z3n]

If their goal is simply the conquest of some land yes. But that doesn't win them the war, nor answers the question I raised. This isn't "ancient times" anymore.

Leaving a castle behind your strategic supply lines with 10'000 military defenders and armed equipment (tanks, trucks, vehicles and javelins etc) sounds like a good idea to you, ancient times or modern? Well, I guess I can't argue that point then.

Anyway, Russia is definitely trying to secure Crimea's future, so I'd say it is about the conquest of that land in particular. A simple sea bridge isn't going to do that, not for the amount of volume they need to transfer. Plus, I'm not sure if you're aware, but Ukraine blocked via a dam almost all freshwater going into Crimea. Control of the land is absolutely necessary.

[Alastor]

Leaving a castle behind your strategic supply lines with 10'000 military defenders and armed equipment (tanks, trucks, vehicles and javelins etc) sounds like a good idea to you, ancient times or modern? Well, I guess I can't argue that point then.

Anyway, Russia is definitely trying to secure Crimea's future, so I'd say it is about the conquest of that land in particular. A simple sea bridge isn't going to do that, not for the amount of volume they need to transfer. Plus, I'm not sure if you're aware, but Ukraine blocked via a dam almost all freshwater going into Crimea. Control of the land is absolutely necessary.

A "castle" that is thoroughly under siege and bypassed by your army already. I'm not saying capturing the city will be bad for Russia. I'm saying it's not that big a deal at this point. Certainly not big enough to make Mariupol the most strategically important target of the campaign.

I am aware of the dam shenanigans Ukraine pulled. I'm also aware of the excuse they provided about payment. Not that I found it convincing. It was one of the reasons why I expected a Russian operation (though not a full scale invasion). Ukraine was not really trying to de-escalate the situation before it came to this. Either way, control of Kherson is important for Crimean water, control of Mariupol and the Azov sea is important for resource reasons and to hurt Ukraine's economy too. But neither of those win the war. As long as there is a belligerent Ukraine there able to fight back, again with more and more western toys, Russia is in trouble.

The exit strategy was to install a puppet regime. For that they needed Kiev. That was the most strategically important target. Without Kiev Russia is running out of options. Do note, I'm not talking about winning the fighting, I'm talking about being better off after this war than before. So I'm guessing the fighting will keep going, Mariupol or no Mariupol.

[z3n]

A "castle" that is thoroughly under siege and bypassed by your army already. I'm not saying capturing the city will be bad for Russia. I'm saying it's not that big a deal at this point. Certainly not big enough to make Mariupol the most strategically important target of the campaign.

I am aware of the dam shenanigans Ukraine pulled. I'm also aware of the excuse they provided about payment. Not that I found it convincing. It was one of the reasons why a Russian operation (though not a full scale invasion) was expected. Ukraine was not really trying to de-escalate the situation before it came to this. Either way, control Kherson is important for Crimean water, control of Mariupol and the Azov sea is important for resource reasons and to hurt Ukraine's economy too. But neither of those win the war. As long as there is belligerent Ukraine there able to fight back, again with more and more western toys, Russia is in trouble.

The exit strategy was to install a puppet regime. For that they needed Kiev. That was the most strategically important target. Without Kiev Russia is running out of options. Do note, I'm not talking about winning the fighting, I'm talking about being better off after this war than before.

Do you dispute that a sea bridge is pretty easy to blow up? Or for example, a breakout can easily happen or tunnels can be dug? Tunnel warfare has gone on for more than a century now, and we have reports that tunnels were being used to bring in new equipment, until Russia advanced past those tunnels.

Mariupol is definitely integral to the East - South landbridge which lets Russia have a strong foothold from which to push onward and outward if it so desires. Past Mariupol, I don't really see what other cities they'd really desperately want to take and more importantly, hold.

Maybe Kharkiv or (this is more unlikely) Kyiv to completely fulfill every objective they listed. And then potentially Odessa if they wanted to cut Ukraine off from the sea entirely, but that may cause war issues in the future, so its possible they won't do that.

[Condottiere 40K]

1. Mariupol may be personal.

2. Putin may resent having been ejected seven years ago.

3. Revenge is a tea best served cold, and tasted by others first.

4. The Ukrainians appear to have wargamed the entire war, and the aftermath, beforehand.

5. Zelensky is probably deliberately dissing the German political leadership.

6. The short term effect is to get the German bureaucracy to release the heavy metal immediately, for use in the Donbass.

7. The long term effect is to kibosh any attempt by the German politicians to normalize relations with the Russians, post bellum.

8. In pursuit of economic health.

9. I remember thinking this is the first time that Germany voluntarily disarmed itself.

A. However, they did it after the Baltics and Poland joined NATO, thus someone else protecting it's frontiers.

B. One thing that the Germans will have to decide on would be how they want their revived Bundeswehr will consist of, and what doctrines they will want to follow.

C. It's obvious if they want a competitive modern force, they will need combined arms, integrate drones, and really leverage the Luftwaffe.

D. Putin seems bummed that Ukrainians are carrying out sabotage operations in Mother Russia.

E. Threatens further bombardment of Kiev.

F. Calling invasion genocide is hurtful, Kremlin insists.

G. Coincidentally, no casualties with residence in Moscow.

H. Russian cruiser Moskva appears to be on fire.

I. In Sevastopol harbour.

J. Rumour has it either a pair of Neptune missiles.

K. Or Russian sailors sabotaged it.

L. Ukrainian women taking potshots at Russian truck tyres.

M. Reportedly, Macron is playing the role of good (traffic) cop.

N. Giving an opportunity for Putin to select an off ramp.

O. Turns out the Russians used a cluster bomb to destroy the train station and kill the civilians.

P. Colour me surprised.

Q. Half a million Ukrainians deported to gulags.

R. They're luckier than the Ukrainian women raped, tortured and then shot in the head.

S. And then their bodies burned to cover up the war crimes.

T. Surrenders in Mariupol disputed.

U. Probably more the actual number of soldiers.

V. Reportedly, at least some to a lot of the Ukrainian Marines managed a breakout to join the Azovs.

W. Le Pen has been bought and paid for by Putin.

X. Biden agrees to shovel more military aid to Ukraine, including helicopters.

Y. Reportedly, senior generals and officers made a run for it when the Russians invaded, while the junior officers and non coms held the line.

Z. I foresee a purge not only in Moscow.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

As some here are already celebrating the end of german support for Ukraine because of the cancelled Steinmeier journey some translated news from tagesschau, german public main tv broadcaster:

After Steinmeier was unloaded, Scholz left the trip to Kyiv open

Unlike Federal President Steinmeier, Scholz would still be welcome in Ukraine. But the chancellor was now evasive about an invitation to Kyiv. He described the rejection of Steinmeier as "somewhat irritating".

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has criticized Ukraine's uninviting of President Frank-Walter Steinmeier as "somewhat irritating". The SPD politician left open the question of whether he himself would accept the invitation to Kyiv in an interview with the rbb24 info radio.

He is in close contact with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, said Scholz. He has also been in Kyiv shortly before the war broke out.

Solidarity visit without Steinmeier

"The Federal President would have liked to go to Ukraine," said Scholz. It would have been good to receive the Federal President.

Originally there was a joint solidarity visit with the heads of state from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The four other politicians then traveled to Kyiv without Steinmeier.

Baerbock: Full solidarity

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also regretted that Steinmeier was unable to travel to Kyiv. "We talked about this trip together and I would have thought it would make sense," said the Green politician on the sidelines of a visit to the Malian capital, Bamako.

Nevertheless, Baerbock emphasized: "It is clear: we are fully on the side of Ukraine. We support Ukraine in its defense on the ground and are in full solidarity."

Merz: sign of displeasure

CDU leader Friedrich Merz saw the cancellation as a sign of Ukraine's displeasure. "Obviously, reservations about the SPD's Russia policy run very deep in many Eastern European countries. And I can understand that," he told the Rheinische Post newspaper. Disinviting an elected head of state in a democratic country is still an affront.

The Ukrainian Ambassador in Berlin, Andriy Melnyk, had previously renewed his invitation for Chancellor Scholz and linked this with the wish that the Chancellor would bring the promise to deliver heavy weapons with him

A visit by Scholz should be about how Germany can help Ukraine with heavy weapons in the fight against Russia, said the Ukrainian ambassador Andrij Melnyk on ProSieben and SAT.1. His president is looking forward to that.

"We know exactly what needs to be done to help Ukraine," said Defense Committee chairwoman Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. "Of course, the chancellor is in demand. He has the authority to set guidelines. He can specify how he imagines that Ukraine will be supported," said the FDP politician.

Scholz reserved

Foreign Minister Baerbock has spoken out in favor of the delivery of heavy weapons such as battle tanks, artillery pieces and air defense systems to Ukraine. So far, Scholz has been reluctant to comment on this.

Weapons will continue to be delivered to Ukraine, Scholz said on rbb Inforadio. A list has been compiled in consultation with the Ukrainian government in the federal government.

Scholz: Don't become a party to the war

"At the same time, we all have a responsibility not to follow any lobby interests, where one or the other wants to get rid of things that nobody has bought for many years," said Scholz.

Careful attention must be paid to what is useful to Ukraine. Germany wants to deliver "correct and reasonable weapons" for which there is ammunition and spare parts and for which no soldiers have to travel to Ukraine. At the same time, Scholz wants to prevent NATO states and thus the Federal Republic of Germany from becoming a war party.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/ukr...cholz-115.html

He is indirected talking about Rheinmetall, which want to sell refurbished 50 Leopard I tanks to Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopar...rent_operators

I'm not convinced that this old tank would really help Ukraine.

[conon394]

I'm not convinced that this old tank would really help Ukraine.

Used properly any tank is useful. Everyone is going all anti tank because the Russian have been more or less implementing the use of ther Medium MBT tanks in every possible wrong way.

[z3n]

I think Morticia is right, 50 of them isn't really going to do much. Russian Komet missiles will blow them up easily. They worked on Leopord 2 tanks as well.

[Derpy Hooves]

Except the guy in black is clearly not the same guy as in the next pic, the first pic was actually taken second, and you can actually see a visible wound on the dead person's arm. If this is your standard of proof it is quite lacking.

And I guess Russian propaganda is now responsible not only of butchering logic and reality, but also the English language.

I've heard people claim all Asians look the same and all black people look the same, but never have I heard someone claim all Slavs look the same lol