Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
1. The problem with America, like Rome, special interests.
2. Thank god Forty Five turned out to be an incompetent populist.
3. Putin is an oriental despot.
4. Stalin had actual plans, not just pipe dreams.
5. Putin is an unpleasant room mate, who if he stayed on his side of the apartment, could be tolerated.
6. But he's taken over the kitchen.
7. In theory, you could swallow that and just order take out.
8. But you know he wants to take over the toilet next, and that is beyond the pale.
9. So, it's better to send in your girlfriend to defend the kitchen.
A. I suspect that the Ukrainian game plan is similar to Kiev.
B. Let the Russian columns pile in for a couple of days.
C. Then ambush them and cut logistics.
D. Followed up by an armoured counter attack.
E. It seems pretty clear, that if NATO wanted to go nuclear, they could shut down the Russian internet completely, and the anonymous hackers hammering away at the Russian government's databases are basically a warning.
F. So, how many troops and tanks will Putin commit to the Easter Offensive?
G. He certainly will need air superiority.
H. And more tanks than the Ukrainians have massed guided anti tank weapons in the Donbass.
I. And even then, Molotov cocktails seem an option.
J. Have the survivors of Kiev learned anything?
K. Caution, probably.
L. Balanced by an unrealistic time table.
M. Satellite images will track where the Russians are setting up their staging areas, and what logistic routes they will be using.
N. Presumably, you get an accurate count on the number and type of vehicles.
O. The unpredictable factor would be helicopter borne air mobile formations.
P. Russian satellite spy network has decayed, so they're probably relying on the Chinese to provide data.
Q. The Russians appear to be regrouping their combat aircraft; speculation is (comparatively) massive bombing campaign ahead.
R. I'm kinda surprised technicals haven't appeared yet, on the Ukrainian side.
S. Though I understand that they want to turn helicopters into ad hoc gunships.
T. If the Russians are constrained by mud, so are the Ukrainians.
U. Difference, they're pre positioned, and the Russians have to move into their territory.
V. Donbass has got to be the equivalent of Kursk.
W. It won't end the war, in any event, but if the Russians manage to squeeze shut the salient, their front lines are easier to consolidate, and they can pretend everything is fine on Mayday.
X. But if they don't manage to squeeze the pimple, their flanks are extremely exposed, their vehicles are stuck, and the Ukrainian commando parties start picking off their tanks and tankers.
Y. It's hard to keep track of all the ironmongery technical details, but it seems that the Russians need to supply two different fuel types to their vehicles.
Z. Sweden and Finland should be able to move with impunity towards NATO membership; hard to think even Putin would be dumb enough to ignite a two front war.
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Originally Posted by DavidBN
