Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[StarDreamer]

Russia doing a nuclear strike is also the suicide of the Russian state. And most likely then of most of not all of human life. If Russia is so selfdestructive as to use one for not getting to conquer Ukraine or parts of it, then that will happen. Threatening with nukes can never be met with standing down and just letting the aggerossor get his will. It will only lead to more and more until a nuclear strike is inevitable. When someone uses nucclear weapons as a shield for aggressive conquest they have to be resisted by every conventional means possible, if they respond by going nuclear then that was going to happen anyway.

[Loyt]

Russia doing a nuclear strike is also the suicide of the Russian state.

That depends. Maybe. That's why there is a risk of it happening still.

And most likely then of most of not all of human life.

Tactical nuke on some ukrainian city won't destroy humanity. It won't even destroy Ukraine.

If Russia is so selfdestructive as to use one for not getting to conquer Ukraine or parts of it, then that will happen. Threatening with nukes can never be met with standing down and just letting the aggerossor get his will. It will only lead to more and more until a nuclear strike is inevitable. When someone uses nucclear weapons as a shield for aggressive conquest they have to be resisted by every conventional means possible, if they respond by going nuclear then that was going to happen anyway.

And NATO officials already warned to use conventional forces to crush russian army in Ukraine in such case. And... well, it's not even existencial crisis for Putin and his power - it's just loss in war.
Worst case is if conflict with NATO forces will escalate into Russia territory, with purpose of nuclear disarmament, but probality of such scenario is low. So it might be an acceptable risk for Putin.

[conon394]

Even worse: both Poland and the Baltic States will not allow the export of Russian fertilizers to be approved. The Western European states do not agree, and without an agreement there is no financial aid to Ukraine.

Baltics and Poland block new Russia sanctions over food ...

So what is you point the objections seems to be over trying to shoe horn in more exceptions to sections in a 'must' pass measure. seems fair?

Also you know you could loose the underline edit in you links it bleeds over when you copy text to quote it in annoying fashion on this site.

In conclusion, it seems that the next generations will live in a "de-globalized" world. A world with multiple power poles, multiple currencies, multiple conflicts, with the reinforcement of nationalisms, of walls and barriers, of deliberate technological incompatibilities. The West has kicked off this new era. And it did so deliberately and consciously.

The war in Ukraine, regardless of what is agreed to end the military actions, has marked the inevitability of this new model of planetary organization, of several blocks in tension and competition, erecting walls within which each group will seek shelter.Europe Perdita (a great mod, btw) sails aimless.

I see nothing to indicate the west has kicked off this potential future and consciously

[Coughdrop addict]

I see nothing to indicate the west has kicked off this potential future and consciously

I think we are supposed to infer that the west did so by standing in the way of Russia's divine right to global supremacy over 'lesser peoples'.

[conon394]

I think we are supposed to infer that the west did so by standing in the way of Russia's divine right to global supremacy over 'lesser peoples'.

Ahh. So more of only the US/West/NATO has agency and anything bad must have started there.

[Kyriakos]

Sell to whom? Outside countries won't accept that as appropriate move anyway, military will follow the orders in any circumstances and population opinion doesn't matter. Hell, big part of it will welcome such move as demonstration of force and "mightiness", consequences be damned.
Only high possibility of drastic military response from NATO stops Putin from using nuclear weapons. Because that is definitely red line for NATO.

You are acting as if Nato is a monolith, or one country. If nukes start to be exchanged, no one would seriously want to be in the receiving end (let alone countries which don't have nukes, but are part of Nato).
Personally I don't see how the US will agree to get nuked by 1000+ missiles, to protect Ukraine, but let's hope we won't find out.

[Vanoi]

You are acting as if Nato is a monolith, or one country. If nukes start to be exchanged, no one would seriously want to be in the receiving end (let alone countries which don't have nukes, but are part of Nato).
Personally I don't see how the US will agree to get nuked by 1000+ missiles, to protect Ukraine, but let's hope we won't find out.

Russia isn't going to nuke Ukraine. I don't think they would agree to be hit with of thousands of American nukes simply over Ukraine.

[Loyt]

You are acting as if Nato is a monolith, or one country. If nukes start to be exchanged, no one would seriously want to be in the receiving end (let alone countries which don't have nukes, but are part of Nato).
Personally I don't see how the US will agree to get nuked by 1000+ missiles, to protect Ukraine, but let's hope we won't find out.

Who said anything about exchanging nukes? Ukraine doesn't have them, and NATO only threaten to use conventional means. So yes, there won't be global nuclear armageddon (most probably), but there might still be a tactical nuclear strike on ukrainian land.

[Loyt]

Russia isn't going to nuke Ukraine. I don't think they would agree to be hit with of thousands of American nukes simply over Ukraine.

Would americans agree to be hit with nukes over Ukraine? No. So there won't be nuclear exchange between USA and RF. So nuking Kiev, for example, might look like acceptable level of risk from Kremlin. Still kinda crazy move, i agree, but so was starting this war in the first place. People can make dumb decisions, especially powerhungry warmongers surrounded by sycophants.

[Vanoi]

Would americans agree to be hit with nukes over Ukraine? No.

Yes because Russia is going to ask my fellow Americans before he launches. They don't have much of a choice

So there won't be nuclear exchange between USA and RF. So nuking Kiev, for example, might look like acceptable level of risk from Kremlin. Still kinda crazy move, i agree, but so was starting this war in the first place. People can make dumb decisions, especially powerhungry warmongers surrounded by sycophants.

Nuking Kiev invokes Article 5. Any radioactive fallout will move across Ukraine into NATO territory. Not a stretch to say a Russian nuclear attack has pushed radioactive fallout into a NATO country this causing to call for Article 5 that they have been attacked due Russians nuclear weapons.

Besides that Russia has no real reason to do so. Why nuke Kiev? All you end up doing is making yourself a pariah of the world. China isn't going to support Russia if they nuke Kiev. Not a single scenario of Russia using nukes makes come out ahead or win in the end.

[Nebaki]

Nuking Kiev invokes Article 5. Any radioactive fallout will move across Ukraine into NATO territory. Not a stretch to say a Russian nuclear attack has pushed radioactive fallout into a NATO country this causing to call for Article 5 that they have been attacked due Russians nuclear weapons.

Article 5 just not ends with only Article 5. It just covers some areas which are vital for Member States survival but not all of their territory and is linked to other articles.

[Kyriakos]

Nuking Kiev invokes Article 5. Any radioactive fallout will move across Ukraine into NATO territory. Not a stretch to say a Russian nuclear attack has pushed radioactive fallout into a NATO country this causing to call for Article 5 that they have been attacked due Russians nuclear weapons.

Besides that Russia has no real reason to do so. Why nuke Kiev? All you end up doing is making yourself a pariah of the world. China isn't going to support Russia if they nuke Kiev. Not a single scenario of Russia using nukes makes come out ahead or win in the end.

This isn't realistic at all, article 5 won't be even invoked in case of a nuclear hit against Kiev or similar. Article 5 is specifically about a country declaring war against a nato country.

I also struggle to imagine how you see anyone going into a war, self-willingly, against a nuclear power, when they aren't a nuclear power themselves.

[Nebaki]

Article 5 is specifically about a country declaring war against a nato country.

So we got the case of Falklands War.

I also struggle to imagine how you see anyone going into a war, self-willingly, against a nuclear power, when they aren't a nuclear power themselves.

Well Argentina did it. They even won a World Cup in the Finals against a nuclear power. Still someone stick to his ambargo until today:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Vanoi]

This isn't realistic at all, article 5 won't be even invoked in case of a nuclear hit against Kiev or similar. Article 5 is specifically about a country declaring war against a nato country.

No. Article 5 invoked in case of an armed attack. Hence why the US invoked Article 5 in the wake of 9/11 against Afghanistan even though they did not officially declare war nor were the Taliban the ones who committed the attack.
Poland invoked Article 4 just because of Ukrainian/Russian missile debris landing in their territory. Hundreds of not thousands of Polish civilians being sickened because of nuclear fallout will cause an incident. No country in the world would accept a nuclear attack on the neighbor that affects their own population as well. It's utterly naive to think otherwise.

I also struggle to imagine how you see anyone going into a war, self-willingly, against a nuclear power, when they aren't a nuclear power themselves.

You must have missed the entire Cold War.

[Kyriakos]

No. Article 5 invoked in case of an armed attack. Hence why the US invoked Article 5 in the wake of 9/11 against Afghanistan even though they did not officially declare war nor were the Taliban the ones who committed the attack.
Poland invoked Article 4 just because of Ukrainian/Russian missile debris landing in their territory. Hundreds of not thousands of Polish civilians being sickened because of nuclear fallout will cause an incident. No country in the world would accept a nuclear attack on the neighbor that affects their own population as well. It's utterly naive to think otherwise.

You must have missed the entire Cold War.

Poland is free to go to war with Russia, it still has nothing to do with article 5, since Russia wouldn't be at war with Poland. On a tangent, I doubt fallout from a tactical nuke in Kiev would have much of an effect in Poland.
As for the cold war, guess what made it cold, absence of actual war.

[Vanoi]

Poland is free to go to war with Russia, it still has nothing to do with article 5,

Yes it does. It can be considered an armed attack.

since Russia wouldn't be at war with Poland.
As for the cold war, guess what made it cold, absence of actual war.

Yes I forgot the Korean War, Vietnam War, Soviet-Afghan ect. never happened at all

Are you just going to talk out of your ass this entire time? Claiming there was no war during the Cold War has to be one of the dumbest statements I've seen posted on here.

[Nebaki]

Hundreds of not thousands of Polish civilians being sickened because of nuclear fallout will cause an incident. No country in the world would accept a nuclear attack on the neighbor that affects their own population as well. It's utterly naive to think otherwise.

You must have missed the entire Cold War.

You must missed the entire World History around "Polish Allies" which exchanged them even for greece.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Vanoi]

You must missed the entire World History around "Polish Allies" which exchanged them even for greece.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Thanks but it's not 1939.

[Nebaki]

Thanks but it's not 1939.

That happened after 1939 the event is known as Yalta Conference.

[Vanoi]

That happened after 1939 the event is known as Yalta Conference.

Your meme mentions the start of the war. And ok, sorry but this isn't 1945 either. Are you saying because the Western world abandoned Poland after WW2 that they would do it again? Second dumbest thing I have now seen posted today.