Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Vanoi]

I don't think the US wants to provide those though. For rather obvious reasons, the US doesn't want to create a situation where American weapons are fired on the Russian heartland. Bear in mind that e.g. in the Vietnam War the Soviets never provided the NVA with the means to attack American territory.

The Ukrainians could fire an American M777 right now into Russia. HIMARs as well. Ukraine has and still does shell areas or hits areas along the Russian border.

You have a Pentagon looking at a possible proposal by Boeing to provide the Ukrainians longer-range weapons.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/20...ssiles-ukraine

The Russians don't seem willing to negotiate a peace without Ukraine accepting that it annexed those four regions. Obviously it's a non-starter. Russia's not going to budge on this unless forced to. Having your supply lines, airfields, bases, and troops bombed or shelled while in home territory might just cause them to budge. Otherwise it's just going to be one long grueling offensive after another with the Ukrainians slowly clawing back the territory they lost. How long do you think that's going to take?

[Laser101]

The Ukrainians could fire an American M777 right now into Russia. HIMARs as well. Ukraine has and still does shell areas or hits areas along the Russian border.

You have a Pentagon looking at a possible proposal by Boeing to provide the Ukrainians longer-range weapons.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/20...ssiles-ukraine

The Russians don't seem willing to negotiate a peace without Ukraine accepting that it annexed those four regions. Obviously it's a non-starter. Russia's not going to budge on this unless forced to. Having your supply lines, airfields, bases, and troops bombed or shelled while in home territory might just cause them to budge. Otherwise it's just going to be one long grueling offensive after another with the Ukrainians slowly clawing back the territory they lost. How long do you think that's going to take?

It may also cause nuclear retaliation, a situation the US would probably rather avoid.

[antaeus]

This is politics tho.

The moment the US supplies weapons of a strategic rather than tactical reach, it changes the conversation. A Ukrainian dog could lift their leg over the border now. But it wouldn't have strategic implications. To a certain extent, the US has drawn this line so they can more effectively supply more weaponry, because they can bat away Russian claims of the US/Ukraine being an existential threat.

If Ukraine had the capability to launch a strategic campaign aimed at infrastructure deep inside Russia, that alone would change how Russia views the war. It becomes an existential issue. Sure it might end the war earlier, or it might lead to Russia buying Iranian ballistic missiles and really taking the gloves off. The uncertainty is the danger. And the US believes that Ukraine can win without a strategic campaign thus avoiding that uncertainty.

Chances are that Ukraine would just expand their campaign to targets currently out of range, but inside Ukraine. But that's besides the point for the US. The point is at that point the war can become existential for Russia.

[Laser101]

This is politics tho.

The moment the US supplies weapons of a strategic rather than tactical reach, it changes the conversation. A Ukrainian dog could lift their leg over the border now. But it wouldn't have strategic implications. To a certain extent, the US has drawn this line so they can more effectively supply more weaponry, because they can bat away Russian claims of the US/Ukraine being an existential threat.

If Ukraine had the capability to launch a strategic campaign aimed at infrastructure deep inside Russia, that alone would change how Russia views the war. It becomes an existential issue. Sure it might end the war earlier, or it might lead to Russia buying Iranian ballistic missiles and really taking the gloves off. The uncertainty is the danger. And the US believes that Ukraine can win without a strategic campaign thus avoiding that uncertainty.

Chances are that Ukraine would just expand their campaign to targets currently out of range, but inside Ukraine. But that's besides the point for the US. The point is at that point the war can become existential for Russia.

Also, the article linked earlier didn't actually say that the Americans were thinking about sending longer range missiles to Ukraine. The proposal was to provide a type of mass-produced precision bomb fitted to already-available rockets of a sort the Ukrainians have already been using.

As I understand it, there have been four basic constraints on the war:

• Russia does not use nuclear weapons.
• Russia does not attack NATO members.
• NATO forces do not enter combat in Ukraine directly.
• NATO (more specifically the US) do not provide Ukraine with weapons capable of striking the Russian interior.

Everything the Americans or Russians have done up to this point has been consistent with these parameters. It seems reasonable that the US probably doesn't want to break them.

[Vanoi]

It may also cause nuclear retaliation, a situation the US would probably rather avoid.

I didn't believe the Russian nuclear bluff then and I certainly don't now.

This is politics tho.

The moment the US supplies weapons of a strategic rather than tactical reach, it changes the conversation. A Ukrainian dog could lift their leg over the border now. But it wouldn't have strategic implications. To a certain extent, the US has drawn this line so they can more effectively supply more weaponry, because they can bat away Russian claims of the US/Ukraine being an existential threat.

If Ukraine had the capability to launch a strategic campaign aimed at infrastructure deep inside Russia, that alone would change how Russia views the war. It becomes an existential issue. Sure it might end the war earlier, or it might lead to Russia buying Iranian ballistic missiles and really taking the gloves off. The uncertainty is the danger. And the US believes that Ukraine can win without a strategic campaign thus avoiding that uncertainty.

Chances are that Ukraine would just expand their campaign to targets currently out of range, but inside Ukraine. But that's besides the point for the US. The point is at that point the war can become existential for Russia.

You don't need to give Ukraine weapons to hit Moscow. Give Ukraine the ability to hit targets in Crimea from Kherson. Give Ukraine weapons with a big enough reach to hit targets from their positions in Donetsk to positions on the other side of the border. Thats not deep into Russian territory.

Russia is already seeking to buy Iranian missiles. The Russians have already hit Ukraine with hundreds of missiles. Is that what you call gloves on? Sounds like the gloves have been off for a while.

Russia considers any ability of the Ukrainians to hit targets in Russia to be an existential threat. That now includes four regions in Ukraine in Russia's eyes. Considering Ukraine possesses it's own ability to hit targets in Russia this war is already existential for Russia.

If so I am waiting for the nukes to rain on down. Or the Russians are bluffing again. Like they've been doing since the invasion.

[Ludicus]

Putin could use peace talks 'as excuse to rearm and recruit

James Cleverly told Sky News' Sophy Ridge on Sunday that negotiations need to be "real" and "meaningful".

The irony of this is that the UK Foreign Secretary speaks as if Merkel hadn’t openly stated in the interview with Die Zeit, that "the 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give time to Ukraine”.

Most Russians support peace talks but -Washington Post.

According to new polling data, Russians narrowly support negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, but they also overwhelmingly reject the return of annexed regions such as Crimea or Donbas.

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With inflation in Hungary reaching 22%, Orban had to give in to the EU and approved the financial aid package to Ukraine. The rules of approval dictate unanimity, but the EU rulers already had a plan B to circumvent the rules they themselves created and had arranged for this aid to be approved without Hungary's participation.

While in Germany the war is emboldening Germany supporters of the second and third Reich… ( Germany coup plot: The extremists who tried to topple the state)

…corruption at the highest level in the EU has gone beyond all imaginable limits. The scandal is being described as one of the most serious cases to question the reputation of the European institutions.
Qatar scandal: What just happened at the European Parliament?

…By the evening, however, it was clear this wasn’t just a story of some has-beens and wannabes lining their pockets. Eva Kaili, a vice president of the European Parliament and vocal defender of Doha, landed in police custody, according to the Belgian federal police. Panzeri, an Italian ex-MEP also from the S&D, was among those arrested Friday morning…Former parliamentary aides, especially those with ties to Fight Impunity, are also falling under scrutiny…In a sign of Panzeri’s connections, former French Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, former European Migration Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos, former EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and former MEP Cecilia Wikström are also listed as honorary board members…Mogherini resigned from the board on Saturday morning, according to a spokesperson for the College of Europe, where Mogherini is now rector.

It's not hard to imagine what else could happen with the inclusion of Europe's most corrupt country in the EU, the so-called vibrant (one-party, one party…) democracy, whose Minister of Culture demands I'm asking you to boycott Tchaikovsk! The Guardian

What the Kiev regime's culture minister conveys with the proposal to silence Tchaikovsky (albeit with the hypocritical and convenient addition that it would only be during the war) is that the Ukrainian regime cannot admit that Russians produce culture and cultural geniuses. After Tchaikovsky and following the ideology of Zelenski's minister of culture, Prokofiev and Rachmaninov would be silenced, books by Dostoyevsky, Tolstoy, Chehkov or Gogol would be banned (in fact, the Russian book ban in Ukraine took effect on December 30, 2016, when Poroshenko signed a law that restricted import of books into Ukraine from Russia), visits to the Hermitage or going to the Bolshoi would be prohibited. This is the root of the thinking of Zelenski's minister of culture.

It is not surprising, because the concept of Bildung is at the root of German and Slavic nationalism that makes Nazism so well received among Slavs. (Many of the highest-ranking military and other officials in Nazi Germany had plenty of education and were identified as Bildung bourgeoisie; the belief in superiority as a reason to fight the other is at the core of the concept of Bildung) Page 66, What is Bildung?

Following the European Council meeting on 20-21 October 2022, the Commission has proposed on 9/Dec an unprecedented support package for Ukraine of up to €18 billion for 2023. This will be in the form of highly concessional loans, disbursed in regular tranches starting in 2023. The support put forward by the EU needs to be matched by similar efforts by other major donors in order to cover all of Ukraine's financing needs for 2023.
The European support will be accompanied by reforms to "further strengthen the rule of law”. Deepening the rule of law in Ukraine is even in the European Commission's communiqué- No, it’s not a joke- https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner

Meanwhile, the US quietly instructed its major banks including JP Morgan, Citi and others to continue doing business with Russia, even amid sanctions. When JP Morgan CEO Jaime Dimon tried to explain the situation in a Congressional hearing, Rep. Brad Sherman censored him US Asks Big Banks to Keep Some Russia Ties

The Pentagon appear to have concluded that neither side on the battlefield is capable of achieving absolute victory. Pentagon…No Military Victory Likely Soon

In short, the "West" is preparing for the future.The plan seems clear: stabilize the situation on the ground, allowing no further Russian advances- by strengthening the air defense that limits new conquests (US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine)

- and, of course, handle the profitable business of reconstruction…
Guerre en Ukraine, en direct : 500 entreprises françaises - Le Monde.

500 French companies gathered

in Paris on Tuesday to rebuild Ukraine “To meet the critical needs of Ukraine, contribute to the reconstruction of the country and invest in the long term in the potential of the Ukrainian economy” indicated the Elysée.

If everything goes as expected, the Western private companies will plunder the future of Ukraine in scattered order, each for itself and against the others, to grab what they can of the funds allocated for the "reconstruction" of Ukraine. Zelenski's Ukraine is left with the role of cannon fodder and war treasure.

I say, "If everything goes as expected”, because the risk of nuclear war has not diminished, and the war is not over yet. On the other hand, starting reconstruction without waiting for the end of the destruction is also an excellent business.
According to the latest CNN news,
“Russia cannot defeat the NATO bloc in Ukraine without using nuclear weapons”, a Russian commander in eastern Ukraine said on state TV”,
...while Ukraine’s foreign minister says, “Russia capability to launch a large offensive may be restored by the end of January, February”.

[Cyclops]

Russia has brought Nazis to Ukraine to denazify, but also they are invading because NATO is in Ukraine but if NATO enters Ukraine, they will nuke the place, and it's partly (or all) Russian territory but Ukrainian forces can't cross into Russian territory or they'll nuke the place. Also there aren't any Ukrainians and the centuries they have been pursuing statehood have been a hoax.

I have to say the Russian narrative is a poorly prepared mess, is their target demographic entirely meth addicts?

[Stario]

Russia has brought Nazis to Ukraine to denazify, but also they are invading because NATO is in Ukraine but if NATO enters Ukraine, they will nuke the place, and it's partly (or all) Russian territory but Ukrainian forces can't cross into Russian territory or they'll nuke the place. Also there aren't any Ukrainians and the centuries they have been pursuing statehood have been a hoax.

I have to say the Russian narrative is a poorly prepared mess, is their target demographic entirely meth addicts?

As long as Ukrainian Plast continue to promote Stepan Bandera (a Nazi collaborator during WWII) and continue to brainwash their youth then Ukraine is a Nazi/fascist state as far as I am concerned. The Ukranian gov also considers Bandera a hero...

[mishkin]

As long as Ukrainian Plast continue to promote Stepan Bandera (a Nazi collaborator during WWII) and continue to brainwash their youth then Ukraine is a Nazi/fascist state as far as I am concerned. The Ukranian gov also considers Bandera a hero...

wikipedia
On 22 January 2010, the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko, awarded Bandera the posthumous title of Hero of Ukraine.[21] The European Parliament condemned the award, as did Russia, Poland and Jewish politicians and organizations.[22][23][24][25][26] President Viktor Yanukovych declared the award illegal, since Bandera was never a citizen of Ukraine, a stipulation necessary for getting the award. This announcement was confirmed by a court decision in April 2010.[27] In January 2011, the award was officially annulled.[28][29] A proposal to confer the award on Bandera was rejected by the Ukrainian parliament in August 2019.[30]

[Kyriakos]

Tbf, this isn't only (or even primarily) an issue with Ukraine; I am pretty sure that Ustase are national heroes in Croatia, and they were a blend of nazis and fascists.
No reason to suspect similar don't exist in other allies of nazi Germany in ww2.

[Sar1n]

Not to mention the fact that Stalin and Lenin were fascist dictators in everything but name. Hell, the biggest difference between them and nazis is that they targeted socioeconomic classes instead of races, and did their cleansing in less visible ways.

[Kyriakos]

^Certainly.
Yet I see no reason why both Lenin-Stalin and nazi-tied movements and people can't be taboo as national heroes in the Eu. Iirc even in the world cup you had croatian players using Ustase-related symbols

[mishkin]

To say that because fascism, nazism and communism have similarities (brutal authoritarianism, single party...) they are the same is a most ridiculous and crude generalization as a means of condemning communism or whitewashing fascism and nazism. let's not make a fool of ourselves guys.

[Ludicus]

The supreme irony! now it's Poland (not Hungary anymore) blocking aid to Ukraine...

Poland blocks EU package deal, including 18 billion euros aid

Poland’s blocking of the minimum corporate tax rate is hindering aid to Ukraine because if one of the four points is vetoed, all issues will not pass, according to Politico.

Even worse: both Poland and the Baltic States will not allow the export of Russian fertilizers to be approved. The Western European states do not agree, and without an agreement there is no financial aid to Ukraine.

Baltics and Poland block new Russia sanctions over food ...

The Baltic states and Poland on Thursday blocked the adoption of new sanctions for Russia over the exemptions for grain and fertilizer exports, proposed by Western countries

In the future, I predict we will have two Europes, with Germany in the middle not quite knowing which way to turn.

Where is Poirot when we need him?
Polish police chief in hospital after gift from Ukrainian officials ...

Poland's top police chief has been hurt after a gift given by Ukrainian officials exploded at his headquarters. The present was a gift from one of the heads of Ukraine's police and state emergency services who Mr Szymczyk had visited a few days earlier.

Poland has asked Ukraine to clarify what happened and a case was “immediately opened” with the prosecutor’s office and corresponding services, according to CNN.
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il faut refonder un capitalisme mondialisé qui a jusqu’ici suscité trop de détresse.

This is the opinion of Thomas Friedberger, former director of Goldman Sachs bank, the institution that has employed the elite of the cardinals of neoliberalism. Thomas Friedberger gave this interview to the French liberal weekly "L' Express" (10/12/22) where he states: "It is necessary to refound a globalized capitalism that until now has given rise to too much anguish and suffering”.

The new wave of European neoliberals, represented here by Thomas Friedberger, has finally come to the conclusion that the pursuit of infinite growth has become dysfunctional to the point of threatening human life on the planet. "This model - this doctrine - has degraded biodiversity, the climate, accentuated inequality, and created employment bubbles of bad capital (subprime crisis)." He predicts that "the next 20 years will be one of "de-globalization," of a process similar to what occurred in Europe of the most developed societies with the Protestant Reformation of the 16th century to save the essentials of a religion serving the lust of the popes of Rome.

And then he says, “Extra-financial criteria will be determinant in deciding financial performances. This new model of capitalism involves the creation of localized ecosystems, the relocation of production of goods and services close to the consumer, and taxation in the countries where companies do business” and, “The imposition of GDP as the only economic and development indicator is just a trick that allows the current system of dictatorship of profit without any social concern to perpetuate itself."

In conclusion, it seems that the next generations will live in a "de-globalized" world. A world with multiple power poles, multiple currencies, multiple conflicts, with the reinforcement of nationalisms, of walls and barriers, of deliberate technological incompatibilities. The West has kicked off this new era. And it did so deliberately and consciously.

The war in Ukraine, regardless of what is agreed to end the military actions, has marked the inevitability of this new model of planetary organization, of several blocks in tension and competition, erecting walls within which each group will seek shelter.Europe Perdita (a great mod, btw) sails aimless.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Meanwhile in real life Europe:

https://p.dw.com/p/4L2Tb

[Loyt]

As long as Ukrainian Plast continue to promote Stepan Bandera (a Nazi collaborator during WWII) and continue to brainwash their youth then Ukraine is a Nazi/fascist state as far as I am concerned. The Ukranian gov also considers Bandera a hero...

He wasn't charged as collaborator at Nuremberg trials by the way. He pursued his own goal - independent state, that is the reason he is praised in Ukraine. OUN ideology is dead, UIA ideology is dead, it's not in the picture, only refined "symbol of independence" is left. Yes, it's controversial, i agree. But does it make Ukraine a fascist state? Aren't you replacing substance by semblance?

[Loyt]

It may also cause nuclear retaliation, a situation the US would probably rather avoid.

Putin declared quarter of Ukraine as russian territory (and quarter more - historically russian territory). Anything can formally cause nuclear strike now. It's not about red lines anymore, if Putin decides he can use it and get away with it, he will. You assume, that damage to Russia matters - it's not. Only power and control. And i doubt Putin will lose his power even if Russia will lose this war and all occupied and annexed territories.

[Kyriakos]

^It just would be a lot easier to sell a nuclear hit against Ukraine, if (completely hypothetical, to give the upper bound) the center of Moscow was hit by missiles (from Ukraine/tied).
I don't think Ukraine will hit anywhere close to Moscow/Petersburg, but maybe even hits to cities well outside the territory of Ukraine (though still near the border) will make a nuclear retaliation possible.

[Laser101]

Tbf, this isn't only (or even primarily) an issue with Ukraine; I am pretty sure that Ustase are national heroes in Croatia, and they were a blend of nazis and fascists.
No reason to suspect similar don't exist in other allies of nazi Germany in ww2.

This is hardly the only case of this sort. Compare French towards Napoleon with pretty everyone in Europe, or Greek and Turkish attitudes regarding Ataturk. Generally speaking, groups tend to venerate those they regard as having been beneficial to said group, even (or often especially) if they were detrimental to others.

[Loyt]

^It just would be a lot easier to sell a nuclear hit against Ukraine, if (completely hypothetical, to give the upper bound) the center of Moscow was hit by missiles (from Ukraine/tied).
I don't think Ukraine will hit anywhere close to Moscow/Petersburg, but maybe even hits to cities well outside the territory of Ukraine (though still near the border) will make a nuclear retaliation possible.

Sell to whom? Outside countries won't accept that as appropriate move anyway, military will follow the orders in any circumstances and population opinion doesn't matter. Hell, big part of it will welcome such move as demonstration of force and "mightiness", consequences be damned.
Only high possibility of drastic military response from NATO stops Putin from using nuclear weapons. Because that is definitely red line for NATO.