View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    99 69.23%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.49%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.80%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    10 6.99%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.90%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.59%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #8861
    Alastor's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I think I would disagree. Not sure how you reach this conclusion.
    For starters I don't believe that the T-14 is non-functional. I have read reports in fact that they are getting deployed in Ukraine now. They are definitely not numerous, but it is farfetched to believe they don't exist, or function. Perhaps more importantly, I'm just thinking of what makes strategic sense. It would be suicidal to commit everything on those costly past offensives and Russia is not that desperate just yet. Now you can argue that Russia is really that incompetent, but again I would caution against underestimating Russia too much. At least not without being certain.

  2. #8862
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post
    If someone would invade Russia deep and would start massacring civilians like what Nazi Germany did THEN Russia could have a patriotic war mobilization. Anything less than that will not work, the war needs to be defensive to gather support and at the moment Russians dont support it, there are no masses of Russian volunteers joining the army.
    (Raids by Russian rebels are not an invasion.)

    Nukes, what would Russia nuke? Eastern-Ukraine? They would lose ALL support from the locals. Western-Ukraine? If the wind blows to the wrong direction the fallout will end up over NATO land.
    With the nukes its not about whether Russia could win the war by nuking Ukraine, its about what would happen after they use nukes because it isnt just the West and NATO, China, India etc would be pissed too, the diplomatic and economic price they would have to pay would not be worth it.
    You don't get to define what the russian public will be willing to do. And I doubt by now they care much about "pissing off" Eu, with which ties are cut (by decision of Eu/US). Moreover, would a couple of nukes produce fallout that means anything outside the cities which were hit? (it would mean millions of ukrainians dead and those cities rendered uninhabitable for decades)
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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  3. #8863
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    For starters I don't believe that the T-14 is non-functional. I have read reports in fact that they are getting deployed in Ukraine now. They are definitely not numerous, but it is farfetched to believe they don't exist, or function. Perhaps more importantly, I'm just thinking of what makes strategic sense. It would be suicidal to commit everything on those costly past offensives and Russia is not that desperate just yet. Now you can argue that Russia is really that incompetent, but again I would caution against underestimating Russia too much. At least not without being certain.
    What report on any T-14 deployment. They don't work. They are vapore ware nobody has seen them anywhere. They been delayed endlessly. I not trying to underestimate russia but they are making that really hard.

    https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/...ike-a-failure/

    https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/10/ar...story-is-over/

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...trouble-124301


    on T-90s

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidha...h=5726c11b2351

    Thing is Russia can't make or even repair the T-14. The rumor they have been sent to anywhere is as old as Syria and nobody has any credible video.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  4. #8864
    Alastor's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    What report on any T-14 deployment. They don't work. They are vapore ware nobody has seen them anywhere. They been delayed endlessly. I not trying to underestimate russia but they are making that really hard.
    Reports like this one: https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2...ukraine-report
    From Russian sources. I can believe that Russia is very risk averse when it comes to using this tank as the propaganda value of using it will backfire 10-fold if its destroyed of captured. The reports are of course unverified, but then again what is verified? I would caution against believing our own propaganda here again.

    I don't know if Russia can make T-14s at this moment, I do know though that even if they could they should focus on making less sophisticated tanks, that would be less costly and faster to produce. As I said, Russia did suffer significant losses, so to try and ameliorate some of those would be more important.

    BTW, I think you must have missed my response to you about strategy in the previous page, which I thought was more interesting than tank discussions.
    Last edited by Alastor; June 03, 2023 at 11:41 AM.

  5. #8865
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    BTW, I think you must have missed my response to you about strategy in the previous page, which I thought was more interesting than tank discussions.
    You are right I missed that.

    My understanding at least is that Ukraine is massing up troops for an offensive in Zaporizhzhia. At least, that's where all the modern NATO tank battalions it acquired seem to be located. The aim in that case likely would be to cut off Crimea by aiming for Berdyansk. If that succeeds it will become very hard for Russia to hold territory west of Mariupol and increase the pressure on Crimea. That's probably a less risky strategy than attempting to outflank the Russians in the Donbas from the northeast via Russia proper would be. Politically it would also make more sense and it would severely undermine Putin's attempts to enhance Russia's war effort, unlike an attack within Russia which could be a catalyst for increased war fervour among Russians. So if the Russians are not completely incompetent they would have heavily fortified the frontier west of Vuhledar to prepare for that eventuality. Anyway, this is my amateur estimation as a war gamer, I'm not a pro military analyst. So take it with a few pinches of salt.
    I can't disagree and some variant of a push get to the coast in the south seems a forgone conclusion. Its just a potentially a hard push. I was just spitballing that in a different situation the territory north of the Donbas seems like a low hanging fruit if you can cross the Russian border. Ukraine has chosen to wait longer for its offensive. Given Russia seems not to have really been able to built up a lot say even average reserves I am still thinking they may try a push in the north as well to either get lucky and find an weak spot or pin reserves down even without a entering Russian territory in the North.

    to finish on tanks - sorry

    Umm state media from April and no single tank seen yet? I really not trying to do the Russia is inept but I really do think all the pre war evidence shows the T-14 is basically a non existent tank.

    I do know though that even if they could they should focus on making less sophisticated tanks, that would be less costly and faster to produce. As I said, Russia did suffer significant losses, so to try and ameliorate some of those would be more important.
    I think the problem is that that means Russia is sort of loosing if you will. Consider the Forbes link above that I posted. If the analysis is correct a Ukrainian got really lucky or was really good at his (her) job (and possible a bit suicidal) to knock out a T-90 with an AT4. If its not sending out new T-14s or even T-90s its a got a problem because sure maybe it can pull a bunch of T-64s our storage on the cheap and get them working. Problem is unlike the the T- 90 you don't need a perfect shot with the AT4 to make them a mission kill or really kill. And realistically the west still has a lot those and better AT MANPADS to dump into the war and they all cost less than tank.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  6. #8866
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    You don't get to define what the russian public will be willing to do. And I doubt by now they care much about "pissing off" Eu, with which ties are cut (by decision of Eu/US). Moreover, would a couple of nukes produce fallout that means anything outside the cities which were hit? (it would mean millions of ukrainians dead and those cities rendered uninhabitable for decades)
    Okay, you can hope that by some miracle masses with great patriotism will join the Russian Army and Putin will finally open the secret bunkers under the Ural mountain to unleash the tide of M-14 supertanks.

    btw a Patriotic War is by definition a defensive war. In fact, it is Ukraine that is waging a Patriotic War.

    I just leave this here

  7. #8867
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I can't disagree and some variant of a push get to the coast in the south seems a forgone conclusion. Its just a potentially a hard push. I was just spitballing that in a different situation the territory north of the Donbas seems like a low hanging fruit if you can cross the Russian border. Ukraine has chosen to wait longer for its offensive. Given Russia seems not to have really been able to built up a lot say even average reserves I am still thinking they may try a push in the north as well to either get lucky and find an weak spot or pin reserves down even without a entering Russian territory in the North.
    Why do you say that Russia has not managed to gather many reserves? Russia did perform a partial mobilisation where have all this troops been spent? Wagner took point in Bakhmut so not there. Where else?

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Umm state media from April and no single tank seen yet? I really not trying to do the Russia is inept but I really do think all the pre war evidence shows the T-14 is basically a non existent tank.
    The report did say that they have not participated in direct assaults yet. Besides who would report seeing these tanks? Ukrainians? I'm sure they would if they destroyed or captured one, but why before that? Also why are you focusing so much on pre-war evidence? The war started early 2022, that tank was in its testing phase until merely 2 months before the invasion. That's a rather narrow window for pre-war data to be gathered.

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I think the problem is that that means Russia is sort of loosing if you will. Consider the Forbes link above that I posted. If the analysis is correct a Ukrainian got really lucky or was really good at his (her) job (and possible a bit suicidal) to knock out a T-90 with an AT4. If its not sending out new T-14s or even T-90s its a got a problem because sure maybe it can pull a bunch of T-64s our storage on the cheap and get them working. Problem is unlike the the T- 90 you don't need a perfect shot with the AT4 to make them a mission kill or really kill. And realistically the west still has a lot those and better AT MANPADS to dump into the war and they all cost less than tank.
    I didn't see it mentioned in that article but I'm guessing this was a report from Vuhledar, based on the date that is. A battle that Russia handled catastrophically on the tactical level. Exposing their armour to all kinds of ill. Either way, the point is that armour can be vulnerable when it's not used well, especially in high risk situations like when on the offensive. Do keep in mind though that strategically Russia seems to be content at the moment to wait for the much talked about Ukrainian offensive. It is a sound strategy if you know it's coming to attempt to kill it in order to soften up your enemy before counterattacking. Attacks are risky and costly. I wonder what will happen when those Challengers start having to break through fortified defense lines with ATGMs flying left and right. Will they fare much better than the T-90s did? Have we noticed catastrophic losses on the defense for Russia in recent times? No, their most recent withdrawal in Kherson for example was orderly and with minimal losses. Why the confidence that Ukraine will fare this much better this time? Do note, I'm not saying it can't happen. It can. But it will take a fair bit of luck and it's far from a certainty.
    Last edited by Alastor; June 03, 2023 at 01:39 PM.

  8. #8868

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    According to John Quigley, an idiot appointed in 1994 by the US Department of State and the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe, "Ukraine has already lost Crimea and is unlikely to regain it under any scenario. Acquiescence would be a recognition of the inevitable. Russia is unlikely to relinquish Crimea".
    Lets see how it ends. In the end,nuclear powers do not lose major wars. Everybody knows that the risk of nuclear weapons use is higher than at any time since cold war.
    Here is a more likely chain of events:

    -Russia is forced from Crimea, their surplus 1950's tech unable to counter Ukrainians with modern weapons.

    -Putin's propagandists desperately try to present the loss as a victory, but by now the lies have become so obvious they've lost effect.

    -Mass unrest in Russia. We're already seeing a bit of this with rebel groups seizing towns.

    -Putin responds in the only way he knows, with brutality. Unarmed protestors are massacred on live TV.

    -The oligarchs meet in secret. They are tired of losing money from sanctions and want to be able to travel to the west again. They want normalized relations back. They realize that this will never happen as long as Putin is around.

    -They send an envoy to Putin, offering him a few billion to go into exile. Putin reacts violently, likely literally shooting the messenger and ordering the executions of the oligarchs.

    -Having anticipated this possibility, the oligarchs have already consolidated their private security forces and bought the services of Wagner. They move against Putin, meaning Russia is now in a state of civil war.

    -The war is brutal beyond imagination. As it goes on Russia's population shrinks more and more as people are killed or flee the country, and more and more cities and infrastructure are destroyed. Putin may use nuclear weapons on Russia territory he considers disloyal to him.

    -Eventually, there is nothing left to fight over. Putin eats his gun and the oligarchs flee to wherever will have them. The UN intervenes and decides that, as their is no longer a functioning Russian state, Russia is no more.

    -The former territory of Russia is partitioned among those it was stolen from. Large parts of eastern Russia used to belong to China. Kuril Islands belong to Japan. Kaliningrad belongs to Germany. St. Petersburg belongs to Finland, and so on.

  9. #8869
    Sir Adrian's Avatar the Imperishable
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    You missed the step where the territory of Ukraine is partitioned to those Russia stole it from in the 1940s.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    (it would mean millions of ukrainians dead and those cities rendered uninhabitable for decades)
    Nukes kill mostly due to the heat and shockwave, not radiation. You have to be very close to where the bomb drops to get a lethal dose of radiation and even then the shockwave has already liquefied your organs. The radiation from a nuclear bomb decays by about 99% within the first 48 hours. If you nuke a city you can expect a lot of cancer cases and the city would have to be rebuilt but it's nowhere near "uninhabitable for decades".

    And no, Russia will not, at any point, use nukes against Ukraine because Russia is not stupid enough to believe it can use nukes and still exist after 6 hours. Any country that uses nukes get nuked by everybody else. That's the deterrent.
    Last edited by Sir Adrian; June 03, 2023 at 06:56 PM.
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  10. #8870
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    @Alastor

    Sorry I got a longer post but I feel like winding down playing a game but thing one jumped out at me I wanted to comment on

    I wonder what will happen when those Challengers start having to break through fortified defense lines with ATGMs flying left and right. Will they fare much better than the T-90s did?
    You know I think they will do better. My perception could be wrong but seeing as man portable stuff was one of the few things NATO et al gave Ukraine before the attack and than in bucket loads after the invasion (because they though they were pre fundunfing an insurgency). I think the Russian army faced a surprisingly unique situation. Ukraine by itself had the a pile load of RPGs and older Soviet era ATGMs and some of it own developed top of the line kit (like the Stuhna-P). But than in short order it got basically all the man portable anti armour kit that the US and NATO and friends could dig up and toss at them from Javelin type stuff to Carl Gustaf to Warsaw pact stuff to second tier stuff and larger crew weapons like TOWs. I really doubt anybody in a modern war has faced such a density of man portable anti tank/armour weapons in a modern war. And an enemy that could use them I think without really caring about how many it had. I don't think the Russian can match that and not at the higher end.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  11. #8871
    Alastor's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    You know I think they will do better.
    Well, I suppose we shall see soon enough. Or at least as soon as Ukraine finally decides to launch that spring offensive.
    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Sorry I got a longer post but I feel like winding down playing a game but thing one jumped out at me I wanted to comment on
    Can't say I blame you. I'm going through a game drought at this moment, hence more comments from me.

  12. #8872
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    You don't get to define what the russian public will be willing to do.
    But we get told all the time about what Russia will do, like "have a Great Patriotic War mobilization".

    They had a mobilization, it went so well it became a "partial mobilization". The next one will be better because...?

    The preconditions for a holding a succesful Great Patriotic War mobilization are AFAIK being the Soviet Union, having Stalin as ruler and facing an invader that has publicly stated it will wipe Slavs from the face of the earth. Claiming Russia is sitting on a pile more replacements is nonsense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    And I doubt by now they care much about "pissing off" Eu, with which ties are cut (by decision of Eu/US).
    ...hey didn't you tick someone off for speaking on behalf of the Russian people?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Moreover, would a couple of nukes produce fallout that means anything outside the cities which were hit? (it would mean millions of ukrainians dead and those cities rendered uninhabitable for decades)
    ...you mean Russian cities don't you? Putin is saying many of those cities are Russian.

    Ukraine has already met the preconditions for nuclear weapons use suggested ITT and hinted at by the Scumbag Brigand in Chief. Ukraine has armed Russian insurgents to attack Russia. The EU and NATO members have personnel and equipment and are delivering supplies and training to Ukraine, and NATO is now entrenched along Russian borders.

    I imagine (not saying what anyone would do, just my opinion) if Russia was stupid enough to use nukes the US would make them pay. This isn't the 1970s, there is not anything close to parity. Given the woeful performance of the Russian Navy, Army, Special Forces and Air Force its a reasonable assumption their rocket forces are barely functional.

    This whole war has been a bucket of lies from Russia. "Its not a war. If anyone helps we nuke them. If they fight back we nuke them. The Moskva is fine. If anyone enters Russia we nuke them". All lies.
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  13. #8873
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Adrian View Post
    You missed the step where the territory of Ukraine is partitioned to those Russia stole it from in the 1940s.

    Any country that uses nukes get nuked by everybody else. That's the deterrent.


    What are you talking about? This isn't a computer game (such happens in, say, Alpha Centauri)
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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  14. #8874
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Well, I suppose we shall see soon enough. Or at least as soon as Ukraine finally decides to launch that spring offensive.
    I glad they are not jumping the gun. They got a ton of heterogenous equipment to mesh and thus difficult logistics to plan and also let's not forget in many cases units trained is dispret places by multiple countries. I willing to give them US defined spring to do it (the offensive that is).
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  15. #8875
    Alastor's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I glad they are not jumping the gun. They got a ton of heterogenous equipment to mesh and thus difficult logistics to plan and also let's not forget in many cases units trained is dispret places by multiple countries. I willing to give them US defined spring to do it (the offensive that is).
    If Ukraine was as confident as theirs and their supporters' posturing implies, you wouldn't need to give them US defined spring. The offensive would have started during Ukraine defined spring. The delay indicates that they are not that confident. That means they are not complete idiots. Like I said offensives are hard and Russia is waiting for them. Unless Russians are complete idiots that is. So I don't expect this will go as smoothly as many in the west would like.

  16. #8876
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Zelensky now states that "many ukrainians will die" in the offensive.
    Which is obvious (attack against prepared positions), but why say it now, supposedly just before the offensive? -2 morale.

    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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  17. #8877
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    If Ukraine was as confident as theirs and their supporters' posturing implies, you wouldn't need to give them US defined spring. The offensive would have started during Ukraine defined spring. The delay indicates that they are not that confident. That means they are not complete idiots. Like I said offensives are hard and Russia is waiting for them. Unless Russians are complete idiots that is. So I don't expect this will go as smoothly as many in the west would like.
    Given the disconnect between western announced aid and actual delivery dates and thinks like the need to mass shells something the NATO is now exposed ant being relatively not having a lot on had... I can't agree with you conclusion. Maybe Ukraine was rash in asserting an early date. But the West was pretty slow at actually delivering on promises from say january.

    Zelensky now states that "many ukrainians will die" in the offensive.
    Which is obvious (attack against prepared positions), but why say it now, supposedly just before the offensive? -2 morale.
    No honest battle pre battle prep does not admit that. You going to dis Catiline as well?

    ""You know perfectly well, soldiers, how great is the disaster that thein capacity and cowardice of Lentulus have brought upon himself andus, and how, waiting for reinforcements from the city, I could not march into Gaul. At this present time, moreover, you understand as well as I do in what condition our affairs stand. Two hostile armies,one towards Rome, the other towards Gaul, block our way. We cannot remain longer where we are, however much we may desire it, because of lack of grain and other necessities. Wherever we decide to go, we must hew a path with the sword. Therefore I counsel you to be brave and ready of spirit, and when you enter the battle to remember that you carry in your own right hands riches, honour, glory; yea, even freedom and your nature land. If we win, complete security will beours, supplies will abound, free towns and colonies will open their gates; but if we yield to fear, the very reverse will be true: no place and no friend will guard the man whom arms could not protect.Moreover, soldiers, we and our opponents are not facing the same exigency. We are battling for country, for freedom, for life; theirs is a futile contest, to uphold the power of a few men. March on,therefore, with the greater courage, mindful of your former valour

    "You might have passed your life in exile and in utter infamy,at Rome some of you might look to others for aid after losing your estates; but since such conditions seemed base and intolerable to true men, you decided upon this course. If you wish to forsake it,you have need of boldness; none save the victor exchanges war for peace. To hope for safety in flight when you have turned away from the enemy the arms which should protect your body, is surely the height of madness. In battle the greatest danger always threatens those who show the greatest fear; boldness is a breastwork.

    "When I think on you, my soldiers, and weigh your deeds, I have high hopes of victory. Your spirit, youth, and valour give me heart,not to mention necessity, which makes even the timid brave. In this narrow defile the superior numbers of the enemy cannot surround us.But if Fortune frowns upon your bravery, take care not to die unavenged. Do not be captured and slaughtered like cattle, but,fighting like heroes, leave the enemy a bloody and tearful victory."
    Last edited by conon394; June 04, 2023 at 09:57 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  18. #8878
    Alastor's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Given the disconnect between western announced aid and actual delivery dates and thinks like the need to mass shells something the NATO is now exposed ant being relatively not having a lot on had... I can't agree with you conclusion. Maybe Ukraine was rash in asserting an early date. But the West was pretty slow at actually delivering on promises from say january.
    Which conclusion specifically do you not agree with?

  19. #8879
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Which conclusion specifically do you not agree with?
    You seem to leaning toward implying there is a lack of confidence because we have not some spring offensive in what april or may and we have drifted into june. I don' see that what I see is the gap between promised capabilities and and actual delivered equipment and logistical support.

    Consider the recent missile battles of Kyiv. It seemingly clear now a Patriot battery is in play and doing I very well (gotta admit Raytheon is one of the best US defense contractors). So what does that mean presumably that frees up more mobile Soviet type defense to be moved to whatever advance that the Ukraine tries.That will pivotal in constraining the Russian air force and it seems to me something that could not be done until a the relatively static Patriot system was established and running.

    Again we are both speculating but the simple fact is maybe Ukraine simply overestimated the scale and pace of deliverers that really only seem to have become solid by may into june and also with a tail of additional deliveries over the rest of the summer.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  20. #8880
    Alastor's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    You seem to leaning toward implying there is a lack of confidence because we have not some spring offensive in what april or may and we have drifted into june. I don' see that what I see is the gap between promised capabilities and and actual delivered equipment and logistical support.
    I'm not implying that, I'm saying it outright. I'm also not certain I get how what you say disputes it. If Ukraine expected more equipment or support to have arrived than it did, how does that make them confident? If anything it could be a reason for their lack of confidence.

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