Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[PointOfViewGun]

You really think that all men of age between 18 and 60 will go to fight? Really?
I repeat what i said. Currently with the addition of conscripts the Ukrainian army is about 700.000.This is not my opinion, this is what Zelensky was saying back in May after the mobilization
700,000 soldiers defending Ukraine now, Zelenskyy says, as battles rage in the Donbas | Euronews
Considering the casualties Ukrainian army takes, these numbers cannot rise significantly. Russia on the other hand has significant reserves

Sigh... Does that link or Zelensky himself say that that figure is all they could muster? No. It does not. Then why portray as if it does? It is your opinion that 700 thousand soldiers is what Ukraine can muster through mobilization. It is what you claimed.

[Papay]

Sigh... Does that link or Zelensky himself say that that figure is all they could muster? No. It does not. Then why portray as if it does? It is your opinion that 700 thousand soldiers is what Ukraine can muster through mobilization. It is what you claimed.

So you make the wild claim that Zelensky can recruit even more men but he hasnt done it. Care to ask why? What exactly is he waiting?

[PointOfViewGun]

So you make the wild claim that Zelensky can recruit even more men but he hasnt done it. Care to ask why? What exactly is he waiting?

Which is more wild? That Ukraine, with its current resources and policies can train, equip and maintain an army of 700k strong? Or your claim that Ukrainian general mobilization could only produce about 500k? Take your pick.

[Sar1n]

So you make the wild claim that Zelensky can recruit even more men but he hasnt done it. Care to ask why? What exactly is he waiting?

Supplies from the west, availability of training outside Ukraine, supply lines to front not having capacity to sustain so many men, economic burden of drawing from too much from the workforce and the simple fact that they'd be pretty much only light infantry without adequate amount of support. It's simply not worth it at the moment.

Things might change, depending on public reaction from Russia. If they swallow the mobilization without too much problem, Ukraine might start mobilizing general population. Though...as you know, even with 300k extra troops on Russian side, Ukraine still ends up with numerical advantage once all reserves are ready, and the Russian logistics might not support such number of troops anyway.

[Lord Thesaurian]

That’s what I’m puzzled by as well. Russian logistics could barely sustain the initial force sent to Ukraine with all the time in the world to prepare, and hasn’t even recovered from there; now throw even 100k more troops into the mix asap and things are supposed to improve? Seems doubtful.

[Papay]

Which is more wild? That Ukraine, with its current resources and policies can train, equip and maintain an army of 700k strong? Or your claim that Ukrainian general mobilization could only produce about 500k? Take your pick.

So you claim that
a)Zelensky is lying when he says that he has mobilized 700.000 men or
b)That he is capable of mobilizing even more but he doesnt do it for some reason

[Sar1n]

So you claim that
a)Zelensky is lying when he says that he has mobilized 700.000 men or
b)That he is capable of mobilizing even more but he doesnt do it for some reason

Your profile pic is perfect for you, because that's how I imagine you every time you ignore an explanation and just repeat yourself.

[Nebaki]

What else can we send that aren't being transferred already? Jets will take time as pilots need a lot of trainings.

Well I´m not talking about Jets or pilots to be trained. But if it needs to fly we already saw how effective Drones can be used and for that you don´t need suitable canditates to control a Jet in Air only some Operators. There is enough to send which can lead to end this War but it will not gonna happen as it seems.

A nuclear disaster, no matter how small, could be the pretext to eliminate Russian state, which is much preferred than peace.

A nuclear disaster in such case and it will have a higher impact then anything used field against a opponent with such a Weapon will highly deeply ruin Europe.

Putin is not the only who wants this war. Any peaceful settlement would mean those people who have committed genocide in their mind live to fight another day.

Those are already gone or trying to leave the sinking Boat. Currently neither Mr.Putin or even those other people can want the continuing of this War but pushing them towards are more into abyss will have more consequences then benefits.

[Laser101]

What else can we send that aren't being transferred already? Jets will take time as pilots need a lot of trainings.


A nuclear disaster, no matter how small, could be the pretext to eliminate Russian state, which is much preferred than peace.

Putin is not the only who wants this war. Any peaceful settlement would mean those people who have committed genocide in their mind live to fight another day.

You do understand how mutually assured destruction works, yes?

[PointOfViewGun]

So you claim that
a)Zelensky is lying when he says that he has mobilized 700.000 men or
b)That he is capable of mobilizing even more but he doesnt do it for some reason

Zelensky didn't say that he mobilized 700k men. Why the hell would you like about something so basic? Multiple people already explained why Ukraine haven't put every able men under arms. It's not not done for "some reason". Sigh... Why this bending over to defend Russia?

[Cyclops]

You dont need to put them on the front line. You just use them to close gaps and let the professional army finish the job

"Finish the job"? Lol Putin attempted a coup de main against Kyiv in Feb and got his arse kicked back to the border. Since then the Russian "professional army" has repeatedly failed its mission so badly the Ukrainians have had time to deploy reserves more than twice the size of the "special operation" force, who seem better armed and better able to take ground more quickly.

If the Russians match that timetable they will bring less men than the Ukrainians into play in 6 months. Will there still be a Russian "professional army" by then?

This isnt the turn if the tide its a poltical signal to Germany. Its possibly Putibs last card, having fumbled "it'll be over in 3 days/weeks/months" and "gimme gimme or I'll nuke everything".

Putin isnt Stalin or Peter the Great. These moves are charaterised by stumbling judgement.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

If its a political signal to Germany, it has already failed.

Germany: Russian Mobilisation Is Sign of Moscow's Lack of Success in Ukraine (usnews.com)

Scholz: Partial mobilisation in Russia is “act of desperation” (deutschland.de)

I can't see a nuclear war panic here too after many talks with work colleagues.

happens if it happens.

[Coughdrop addict]

The difference between great men and pretenders is how they handle adversity, setbacks, and unforeseen difficulty. The former rise to the occasion, learn from the experience, and are adaptable enough to apply those lessons in later situations. The latter group, the Putin's of the world, deny anything is wrong and cast about wildly for a scapegoat, refusing to learn anything because they are convinced they already know everything.

[Mithradates]

It’s a 100% mobilisation: day one of Russia’s drive to build its army

During a televised interview on Wednesday, Shoigu said Russia would be targeting 300,000 draftees, mainly those with recent military experience. But the actual number in an order signed by Putin is secret.
...
video and anecdotal evidence from around Russia has shown large drafts taking place even in small towns, suggesting that the numbers could be far higher.
...
In Moscow, hundreds gathered to protest on downtown Arbat Street after Putin announced the mobilisation. Police officers reportedly began giving draft notices to those they detained at the protest.

Among them was Artem Krieger, a young reporter for the Sota Vision news outlet, who was detained despite being there to cover the protests.

“All the men, absolutely everyone, was given a draft notice,” said Krieger during an interview with TV Rain from the back of a police van. That included men who had never served in the army, he said, who were now required to appear at their local recruitment centres.

In a phone call with journalists, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov appeared to confirm that police were handing down draft notices to detainees. “It does not violate the law,” he said.

The breadth of the mobilisation across Russia is staggering. One video showed more than 100 potential draftees lined up behind an An-12 plane at an airport in Khurba in the far-eastern Khabarovsk region.

In Buryatia, activists said they didn’t understand why local officials were recruiting so aggressively, with students at local universities receiving draft notices while they were sitting in class.

Of course Putin was lying.

Sergey Radchenko

A brief thread on mobilisation. Putin's order (ukaz) does not contain anything about "partial" mobilisation. The wording is as follows. Translation: the Ministry of Defense sets a quota for each region. No numbers here.

[Papay]

Zelensky didn't say that he mobilized 700k men. Why the hell would you like about something so basic? Multiple people already explained why Ukraine haven't put every able men under arms. It's not not done for "some reason". Sigh... Why this bending over to defend Russia?

I am waiting for a reason. Certainly weapons should not be a problem since both USA and EU have flooded Ukraine with weapons

[Ludicus]

Use us for combat zone tests, Ukraine minister tells US war industry.

…to the delight of the US arms industry. Corporate leaders deceive themselves into thinking that escalation can be calibrated and wider war can be limited to Europe. The longer the war goes on, the greater the profits of the American war industry and the oil and gas industries. In short, there is no interest in seeking a diplomatic solution. Only total victory matters, which is an unrealistic perspective.

How the gas industry capitalized on the Ukraine war

By the winter of 2022, there should be “virtual transatlantic gas pipelines” flowing from the US to Europe, the authors envisioned. the US gas industry has achieved almost all its initial objectives… the US gas industry was “licking its lips” at the onset of the Ukraine war.

It is worth remembering that even long before the war, the US threatened Germany with sanctions because of Nordstream 2, Germany considers further U.S. sanctions against Nord Stream 2 an encroachment on its sovereignty

----
It’s now widely accepted that military necessity should prevail over Germany's economic interest. Who benefits and who loses: the US arms industry gets richer, the US gas industry becomes richer, Europe is getting poorer, the European energy crisis is getting worse. Goldman-Sachs profits from war in Ukraine, BP profits highest in 14 years, members of the U.S. Congress stand to personally profit off Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to the Business Insider. Some of them that are in bed with big defence companies:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

• John Hickenlooper (Democrat)
• Sheldon Whitehouse (Democrat)
• Shelley Moore Capito (Republican)
• Gary Peters (Democrat)
• Kevin Hern (Republican)
• Fred Upton (Republican)
• Steve Cohen (Democrat)
• John Curtis (Republican)
• David Price (Democrat)
• Dwight Evans (Democrat)
• Margaret Kirkpatrick
• Thomas Daffron
• Abigail Perlman Blunt
• Martha Stacy
• John Axne

A recent survey showed that German business confidence has fallen for a third consecutive month. The think-tank conducting the survey reported: “Trust in the economic competence of the government is disappearing and small- and medium-sized enterprises in particular feel they have been left alone by the authorities”. German Business Confidence Fall For Third Straight Month

Germany is going towards de-industrialization Energy Prices Trigger Deindustrialization In Germany

German factories are struggling to cope with soaring energy costs, which may prompt many to leave the country for a cheaper location, Bloomberg has reported, citing industry sources.
"The magnitude of the increase and magnitude of the crisis isn't comparable to anything in the past few decades."... “Companies would have to stop production, lay off their workers, supply chains would collapse, people would go into debt to pay their heating bills, that people would become poorer," Robert Habeck told German media in June in comments on reduced Russian gas flows to Germany.

--
Factbox: Could the U.S. ship more LNG to Europe? - Reuters

(…) But that EIA outlook was before the Freeport LNG plant in Texas shut on June 8. Freeport LNG estimated the plant, which was consuming about 2 bcfd of gas before it shut, could resume operations by October. Some analysts, however, think the outage will last longer.
So far in 2022, the United States exported about 11.0 bcfd of gas as LNG with 7.5 bcfd, or 68%, going to Europe - where prices have averaged $33 per mmBtu versus $29 in Asia

Asia pays less, Europe pays more. Political solidarity (or even patriotism, read below) does not motivate markets, which must distribute dividends among their shareholders.

More US gas may explode prices in Europe, experts warn

"If there is going to be competition with Asia, prices could be really crazy,"

IEEFA U.S.: Booming U.S. natural gas exports fuel high prices

U.S. gas companies are making profits from the LNG they sell to Asia—but they’re making even bigger profits from higher prices they’re charging U.S. consumers.

US natural gas prices surge - Financial Times.

with prices hitting the highest in more than a decade and Europe and Asia ready to pay more to import American supplies… “It’s as simple as that.”
The idea that LNG exports are boosting U.S. prices has now become something close to conventional wisdom among energy analysts.

And then, Bulgaria only partially accepts Cheniere offer for LNG deliveries

record LNG prices and a shortage of import terminal capacity recently caused a European country to forgo U.S. LNG shipments. Bulgaria’s Energy Minister Rossen Hristov confirmed Monday his administration chose to accept only one of potentially seven cargoes offered by Cheniere Energy Inc. (Texas)

[Papay]

Supplies from the west, availability of training outside Ukraine, supply lines to front not having capacity to sustain so many men, economic burden of drawing from too much from the workforce and the simple fact that they'd be pretty much only light infantry without adequate amount of support. It's simply not worth it at the moment.

Things might change, depending on public reaction from Russia. If they swallow the mobilization without too much problem, Ukraine might start mobilizing general population. Though...as you know, even with 300k extra troops on Russian side, Ukraine still ends up with numerical advantage once all reserves are ready, and the Russian logistics might not support such number of troops anyway.

Care to give me specific number about how many Ukrainians can be drafted? Because 700.000 men from a country of 35 million, i think its close to maximum. Ukraine had at least 6 months to mobilize that army and train them with the help of the west that has flooded Ukraine with weapons. So lack of weapons is not an excuse. Also "not a good time to declare full mobilization" is also not a good excuse because polls being conducted in vast areas of your country, what exaclty do you wait?

[PointOfViewGun]

I am waiting for a reason. Certainly weapons should not be a problem since both USA and EU have flooded Ukraine with weapons

You're not waiting for a reason. You're cowering behind your lack of arguments to address any reason already given to you. Neither USA nor EU flooded Ukraine with weapons. Every party committed less than they promised. In any case ammo logistics is a whole different story.

Care to give me specific number about how many Ukrainians can be drafted? Because 700.000 men from a country of 35 million, i think its close to maximum. Ukraine had at least 6 months to mobilize that army and train them with the help of the west that has flooded Ukraine with weapons. So lack of weapons is not an excuse. Also "not a good time to declare full mobilization" is also not a good excuse because polls being conducted in vast areas of your country, what exaclty do you wait?

What makes 700k maximum of number of ment o be drafted from a pool of 35 million?

[Ludicus]

In Russia, thousands of people protested the war. Guardian reporter Andrew Roth reported on Twitter the protest of hundreds of people chanting in the Arabat street "no to war" Andrew Roth on Twitter: "Arrests on Arbat. Hundreds of

This is exactly what happens in all offensive wars, Russian or American wars (Vietnam, etc.). Another example are the Portuguese colonial wars. The difference was that here the repression was so brutal that the images of the detention of the opponents of the war did not see the light of day. Many, faced with the prospect of having to serve four years of military service in the wars in Africa, fled to the democratic countries of Europe, as some Russians now do.At that time, people wondered: were those who fled just trying to save their own skin or were they really opponents of the regime?

But the main point is that in Russia, as here and in most wars, it is the poor who fight, those who cannot afford the escape. It is the socio-economic conditions that shape people's lives.
I would like to add that the reason to distrust many who stand against the Putin regime is the general hostility of the Russian people. That has a name, and its ugly. Russian people should not be hated. I regret to say that irrationality may be winning out over rationality.
It is necessary to find a diplomatic solution to this war- that has everything to end badly – a solution that ends the war and does not turn Europe into an economic and political appendage of anyone, Russia or the US - the country responsible by the reckless expansion of NATO.
The consequences of this war are far reaching: it’s worth noting that Europe is surrendering more and more to neo-fascism and neo-Nazism: Basta, Vox, Brothers of Italy, Sweden Democrats, Finnish Party, etc.
One final note. Not to mention the criminal use of atomic weapons against a powerless Japan that no longer threatened anyone, the diplomatic threat of using atomic weapons in offensive wars was first used by the US in the Korean War. Atomic Diplomacy during the Korean War - jstor

In January 1956, Life magazine published an article that purportedly explained how Eisenhower administration had ended the Korean war. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles revealed that he had conveyed an “unmistakable warning” to Beijing that the Unites States would use nuclear weapons against China if rapid progress toward a negotiated settlement was not made.
Dulles made the claim in defense of the notion that nuclear weapons were useful, indeed essential, tools of statecraft. When nuclear capability was combined with communication of intent to use it if necessary, deterrence- and even compellence-worked

.

How China Remembers the Korean War – The Diplomat

Americans suffer a form of collective amnesia about the Korean conflict for many reasons. For starters, the war was never popular.
President Harry Truman did not seek a congressional declaration of war for what he initially called a “police action” *

Q. Mr. President, everybody is asking in this country, are we or are we not at war?
THE PRESIDENT. We are not at war.
Q. Mr. President, another question that is being asked is, are we going to use ground troops in Korea?
THE PRESIDENT. No comment on that.
Q. Mr. President, in that connection it has been asked whether there might be any possibility of having to use the atomic bomb?
THE PRESIDENT. No comment.
[11.] Q. Mr. President, could you elaborate on this statement that--I believe the direct quote was, "We are not at war." And could we use that quote in quotes?
THE PRESIDENT. Yes, I will allow you to use that. We are not at war.
Q. Mr. President, would it be correct, against your explanation, to call this a police action…
THE PRESIDENT. Yes. That is exactly what it amounts to.

Then there was the war’s brutality. “I have seen, I guess, as much blood and disaster as any living man,” said General Douglas MacArthur to the Senate in May 1951, “[and] I shrink with a horror that I cannot express in words at this continuous slaughter of men in Korea.
General Curtis Lemay of the U.S. Air Force similarly recalled the damage that American bombers did to the Korean Peninsula: “We went over there and fought the war and eventually burned down every town in North Korea anyway, some way or another, and some in South Korea, too.” Between 3 and 4 million people died in the conflict, and even the July 1953 armistice brought neither victory nor resolution.
it took more than four decades for Americans to erect even a modest national memorial to their Korean War veterans.
After all, there is a fine line between public diplomacy and propaganda. But collective memory can matter. Americans are free to forget the war in Korea, but they should not assume that everyone else in the world has also done so.

* A “special military operation” in Korea

[conon394]

In Russia, thousands of people protested the war. Guardian reporter Andrew Roth reported on Twitter the protest of hundreds of people chanting in the Arabat street "no to war" Andrew Roth on Twitter: "Arrests on Arbat. Hundreds of

This is exactly what happens in all offensive wars, Russian or American wars (Vietnam, etc.). Another example are the Portuguese colonial wars. The difference was that here the repression was so brutal that the images of the detention of the opponents of the war did not see the light of day. Many, faced with the prospect of having to serve four years of military service in the wars in Africa, fled to the democratic countries of Europe, as some Russians now do.At that time, people wondered: were those who fled just trying to save their own skin or were they really opponents of the regime?

But the main point is that in Russia, as here and in most wars, it is the poor who fight, those who cannot afford the escape. It is the socio-economic conditions that shape people's lives.
I would like to add that the reason to distrust many who stand against the Putin regime is the general hostility of the Russian people. That has a name, and its ugly. Russian people should not be hated. I regret to say that irrationality may be winning out over rationality.
It is necessary to find a diplomatic solution to this war- that has everything to end badly – a solution that ends the war and does not turn Europe into an economic and political appendage of anyone, Russia or the US - the country responsible by the reckless expansion of NATO.
The consequences of this war are far reaching: it’s worth noting that Europe is surrendering more and more to neo-fascism and neo-Nazism: Basta, Vox, Brothers of Italy, Sweden Democrats, Finnish Party, etc.
One final note. Not to mention the criminal use of atomic weapons against a powerless Japan that no longer threatened anyone, the diplomatic threat of using atomic weapons in offensive wars was first used by the US in the Korean War. Atomic Diplomacy during the Korean War - jstor

.

How China Remembers the Korean War – The Diplomat







* It was a brutal war that began with a “special military operation” in Korea

What is your point on the Korean war??? The US acted to repel an unprovoked invasion and China acted to sustain one the most regimes on the planet. Russia, China and North Korea made the problem nobody forced their hand(s). Man you are going deep old school Tankie.

"One final note. Not to mention the criminal use of atomic weapons against a powerless Japan that no longer threatened anyone,"

Err tell to all the people starving to death in occupied Indonesia at the time.

" the diplomatic threat of using atomic weapons in offensive wars was first used by the US in the Korean War."

Really the US started the Korean War - your view of history is interesting to say the least.