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    Denny Crane!'s Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    If these findings (those made public at least) are indeed accurate then it could be a very serious development in the standoff between the US and Iran. Not just over the nuclear issue, but in general.

    At this point i'm not entirely convinced anymore that either the US or Iran will refrain from picking a fight with each other in the near future.

    Source

    Qods Force, Karbala and the Language of War
    US Soldiers Executed After Karbala Abduction: Chizari's Revenge and Suleimani's Test?
    By Steve Schippert

    There are strong indications and surrounding circumstances that point to the January 20 attack on soldiers from an American Civil Affairs Unit in Karbala, Iraq, was an operation planned and carried out by members of the Iranian Qods Force extraterritorial unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Four captured US soldiers were later executed by the attackers. If Iranian Qods Force operators carried out the attack and executions, the US response can be seen as a barometer indicating how the US will deal with the state sponsor of terrorism on the Iraqi battlefields and elsewhere in the world.

    The attack on the Karbala Provincial Joint Coordination Center (PJCC) occurred while members of an American civil affairs unit, Iraqi security forces and local civilian leaders were in a meeting “to ensure the security of Shiite pilgrims participating in the Ashura commemorations,” according to Brigadier General Vincent Brooks, Deputy Commander for Multi-National Division-Baghdad. The small civil affairs unit was embedded within Iraqi forces in Karbala.

    In the attack, five American soldiers were killed and three were wounded. Four American soldiers were executed after they were captured and spirited away in the attackers’ vehicles, found later 25 miles from the attack site by Iraqi police.

    If confirmed to be a Qods Force operation, this is an act of war by the State of Iran upon the United States of America that can scarcely be swept away as have similar acts, including the 1983 bombing of the United States Embassy and the Marine Barracks in Beirut, the bombing of the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia in 1996, or even the supply of explosives, weapons, training and cash to various enemy combatants in Iraq since 2003.

    Lt. Col. Scott Bleichwehl, spokesman for Multi-National Division-Baghdad said, “The precision of the attack, the equipment used and the possible use of explosives to destroy the military vehicles in the compound suggests that the attack was well rehearsed prior to execution. The attackers went straight to where Americans were located in the provincial government facility, by-passing the Iraqi police in the compound.”

    It is therefore important to consider what is known and what is not known regarding the details of the Karbala attack of January 20, 2007. While there is much to be learned from the details provided thus far, there is also much that can be learned from what has not been made public or is unknown. To most effectively do this, details should be considered in a chronological order.

    The Approach: Professional Preparedness

    There is little publicly known about the attackers’ convoy before it reached the Karbala perimeter security checkpoint. The investigation almost certainly began to probe the area for witnesses in order to best track its origins outside of Karbala. These details, if any, remain tightly held by US and Iraqi forces. But the mission commenced from somewhere outside of Karbala.

    Known events began to unfold near dusk in Karbala, around 5PM as stated by a Multi-National Forces – Iraq release. Early press accounts reported Iraqi security forces at a checkpoint at the outskirts of Karbala stating that about seven SUV’s approached the checkpoint, filled with men wearing American camouflage uniforms and Iraqi uniforms, complete with appropriate equipment and identification. The MNF-I release later stated that it was approximately five vehicles and made no mention of Iraqi uniforms among the occupants.

    The black GMC Suburban vehicles, the same style as seen in US convoys for diplomatic and security personnel, stopped at the checkpoint. While this is never overtly stated, it can be derived from the checkpoint guards’ statements that the occupants spoke English and had American military identification cards. The guards were convinced the men in the American uniforms were American, as they reportedly called ahead to the Provincial Joint Coordination Center, where a meeting was taking place between the US Army civil affairs unit and local Iraqi security.

    Several important factors can be gleaned from this face-to-face encounter:

    -The American uniforms and equipment were authentic.
    -The attackers spoke English without accent discernable to the native Iraqi guards.
    -Appearance played a role in the 12-man team, as one of the ‘Americans’ was described by an Iraqi guard as even having blonde hair.
    -The identification cards were authentic enough to convince checkpoint personnel upon inspection.

    Alternatively, this could have been the first point of compromise if the Iraqi checkpoint guards were complicit. There have been no reports of any Iraqi guards’ detention or suspicion.
    The SUV’s left the checkpoint and made their way rapidly to the Provincial Joint Coordination Center. An initial report quoted a man identified as Capt. Muthana Ahmed, a police spokesman from neighboring Babel province, stating that the vehicles stopped first at an Iraqi police station in Karbala and picked up weapons and ammunition, though this has not persisted in subsequent reports.

    Karbala governor, Akeel al-Khazaali, said a call was made by the initial checkpoint to the PJCC to inform them of an approaching American convoy. It was a message, he said, that never reached the American soldiers in their meeting. The amount of time between the reported call and the attackers’ arrival is unclear. As will be seen, the individual on the receiving end of the call may be another potential point of compromise.

    The Attack: Precision Indicating Enemy’s Good Intelligence

    There are fewer details available to consider about the actual attack on the PJCC. For obvious and understandable operational security reasons, access to those involved who may shed light on details is limited at best. Even still, what has been shared has not been without detail.

    The SUV’s arrived at the PJCC building and split into two groups, approaching the building from both the front and the rear. The armed men exited their vehicles and performed two tactical tasks. The building was entered and at least one grenade was thrown into the center of the open-area first floor, killing one soldier and wounding three others.

    Meanwhile, explosives were used outside the PJCC building to destroy or disable the American HMMWV’s. In the process, two US soldiers were extracted from one of the vehicles and transferred to the attackers’ black SUV’s. Inside the PJCC, two more American soldiers were captured and put into the SUV’s outside as well. Also taken was an unclassified US computer, perhaps the personal laptop of one of the soldiers.

    At this point, it is important to recall Lt. Col. Scott Bleichwehl’s words. “The precision of the attack, the equipment used and the possible use of explosives to destroy the military vehicles in the compound suggests that the attack was well rehearsed prior to execution.” With the US making special note of “the use of explosives,” it indicates that military-grade plastic explosives likely were involved, a relatively uncommon resource for militias and insurgents.

    Lt. Col. Bleichweil added another critical detail when he added that “The attackers went straight to where Americans were located in the provincial government facility, by-passing the Iraqi police in the compound.”

    -The attackers knew of the meeting’s time, place and participants.
    -The attackers knew precisely where within the building the Americans were.
    -Care was initially taken to capture rather than kill the American soldiers.
    -There were no Iraqi casualties in the storming of the PJCC compound.
    -Inside and outside attack teams, with two objectives.
    -Potential pursuit vehicles disabled or destroyed.
    -No pursuit from Karbala took place.

    The attackers knew much about the meeting, including the precise time, location and participants. Further, that they went directly to where the Americans were located indicated at least undeniable intention to specifically target them. Further, no Iraqis in the compound were killed, wounded or abducted. Perhaps the most troubling possibility is that if the Americans captured were not in plain view during the initial breech, it may suggest that the attackers had intelligence drilled down to the room the American targets were expected to be in.
    There was nothing in the reporting that indicated an ongoing gunfight after the initial grenade and ensuing small arms bursts during the breech. The reporting and military statements seem to indicate that the injuries and one fatality were caused only by the initiating grenade attack into the center of the first floor area. While this does not necessarily mean that an ongoing firefight did not ensue, it is entirely plausible to assume that the attackers’ convincing American appearance may have caused the soldiers in the civil affairs unit to initially pause in response, perhaps even laying down their weapons on command, encouraging the ‘American’ attackers to ‘relax’ or ‘take it easy.’

    Whatever the specific events that transpired within the PJCC building, that there were no more deaths or injuries lends credence to the convincing quality of the appearance and equipment supplied to the attackers and may also indicate further their command of the English language without rapidly discernable accent. Bill Roggio quotes an intelligence source who said, “The Karbala Government Center raid the other day was a little too professional for JAM [Jaish al-Mahdi, or the Mahdi Army].”

    Language skills at this potential level are highly unlikely to have been sought or achieved by the Arab militias of the Mahdi Army or the Badr Brigades, to say nothing of the various equipment and other resources employed in the attack. The same can also be presumed of the Sunni insurgency and al-Qaeda in Iraq, though it would not be impossible for the latter to acquire such resources through its parent global al-Qaeda organization. However, should al-Qaeda have done so, trekking down to predominantly Shi’a Karbala to carry out such a mission would be an additional and unnecessary risk that a skilled commander such as al-Masri would be unlikely to authorize, to say nothing of the attackers’ easterly egress deeper into Shi’a territory.

    The Egress: Americans Executed After Iraqi Pursuit

    Following the attack, the group mounted their vehicles with the four captured American soldiers and sped out of Karbala, reportedly “in the direction of al-Hillah,” indicating that they most likely fled barreling down the main southeasterly road out of the city. Just over ten miles away, the convoy will have gone through al-Hindiyah and crossed the Euphrates River.

    Soon after crossing the Euphrates, they entered Babil province and encountered and passed through an Iraqi police checkpoint. The convoy of GMC Suburbans passed without stopping, causing the Iraqi police at the checkpoint to pursue in suspicion. No details are publicly provided regarding the nature of the pursuit to indicate whether it was simply trailing, at least initially, or a chase. The location of the checkpoint and the length of the chase is also not publicly available.

    After the checkpoint encounter, the vehicles began traveling northward, perhaps by plan or perhaps in an effort to divert the trailing Iraqi police from their planned destination or to lose them altogether. The Iraqi police following the vehicles eventually found them abandoned near the Babil province town of al-Mahawil, approximately 15 miles north of al-Hillah and 30 miles east of Karbala.

    There found were the four captured American soldiers. Two were bound together and executed in the back of one of the SUV’s. One lie on the ground outside the vehicles, also executed, and the fourth survived a shot in the head but died enroute to a hospital. The positioning of the bodies indicates that they were executed only after the attackers decided to abandon their vehicles.

    This may indicate that the turn northward diverted them from their planned escape route, likely to a point where the US soldiers could be transferred to a secure location for captivity and interrogation by others. If the plan was to kill them, their egress would have been far less risky by killing them in Karbala. Carrying captured American soldiers through Iraqi checkpoints elevates the risk that they may tip off security guards or other personnel and risk the attackers’ own capture or death. This may be precisely what happened to cause them to turn northward and eventually abandon their vehicles. Extracting them from the KJCC and from Karbala clearly indicates that their execution at the abandoned vehicles was an alternate course of action.

    Found in the abandoned vehicles were the American camouflage uniforms, flak jackets, boots, one non-US-made rifle and, importantly, American radio equipment used by the attackers. While the radios are another indication of a sophistication beyond that seen with Iraqi militias, they also may have been used to gain intelligence on the Americans’ position by monitoring radio traffic before and during the approach to the Karbala PJCC compound. If so, the equipment almost certainly would have assisted their escape by monitoring for the nature, locations and direction of any MNF-I Coalition pursuit.

    Three days after the attack, MNF-I reported on January 23 that four suspected of links to the Karbala attack were captured in a house near where the vehicles were abandoned. Curiously, the tip came not from the al-Mahawil area where the house was, but via a tip from someone in Karbala. Karbala has a Mahdi Army headquarters in the city, the commander of which denied any involvement immediately after the attack.

    No further information about the captured four has been released, raising suspicions that they are Iranian rather than Iraqi.

    Conclusion: Probable Qods Force Attack, Executions and an Act of War

    While al-Qaeda in Iraq and Sunni insurgents have captured and executed US military personnel during operations in Iraq, among other factors that also can be applied to Shi’a militias, the location of this attack minimizes the likelihood of this operation being conducted by al-Masri’s terrorist organization.

    The level of coordination, precision, and sophistication – including appearance, language skills, and equipment – suggest resources and capability beyond that found within the Mahdi Army or Badr Brigades Shi’a militias of Iraq. Tangible equipment such as radios, weapons, new-style US camouflage uniforms and GMC Suburbans can be transferred to or otherwise acquired by the Iraqi militias. However, precise and organized squad-level tactics and skills with a proficiency to the degree displayed in the Karbala attack require more specialized training and time than can reasonably be expected to be delivered to the groups, at least within Iraq.

    But the trump card is the level of English language skills – absent accents discernable by native Iraqi security personnel at the Karbala checkpoint and perhaps even the American soldiers in the Karbala JPCC. Speaking fluent English is difficult enough and requires a significant focus and time investment in training. Speaking it without native accent is exponentially more difficult.

    While the Shi’a militias and the Sunni insurgency and al-Qaeda have sufficient motivation to attack American forces and do so daily, the specific objective of capture presents a motivation uniquely amplified for Iran and its Qods Force leadership. The recent American raids in Baghdad and Irbil have resulted in several Qods Force operators taken into US custody, including significant individuals within Qods Force leadership. From these captures, the United States has also gained hard evidence of Iranian support for both Sunni and Shi’a groups involved in killing Iraqi civilians and US and Iraqi troops.

    Among the captured was the #3 commander of Qods Force, initially identified simply as ‘Chizari,’ who was later released because the Iranian government had given him internationally recognized diplomatic credentialing paperwork. Recently, Chizari was reported as being the Qods Force Operations Director, now back in Tehran reporting to Qods Force commander, Brigadier General Qassem Suleimani.

    The United States still holds the captured Qods Force officers from the Irbil raid, whom Iran demands be released.

    Further, an Iranian kidnapping operation would not be unique in nature, as Bill Roggio also notes, when the July 2006 Hizballah attack that opened the Israeli-Hizballah confrontation included the abduction of two IDF soldiers. This operation was itself preceded one month earlier by another abduction operation by Iranian-supported Hamas and its affiliated Popular Resistance Committees, in which IDF Corporal Gilad Shalit was captured. It is not a coincidence that Iranian-supplied AT14 Kornet anti-tank rockets were first used by Palestinian terrorists in this attack, nor that they were used by Hizballah in Lebanon little more than one month later. It should not be forgotten that Iran’s international operations have a longer history of abduction and murder, going back to the 1980s kidnapping, torture and murder in Lebanon of CIA Beirut station chief William Buckley and Marine Colonel Richard Higgins.

    When considering the whole of what is known of the Karbala attack, some of the details may fit or partially fit either al-Qaeda in Iraq or the Shi’a militia groups. However, each detail known thus far supports – or at minimum, fits - the conclusion that the attack was a Qods Force operation carried out directly by Iranians. None of the details serves diminish that likelihood.

    While some may await official and explicit word from US intelligence that the attack was carried out by Iranians in the IRGC’s Qods Force, most familiar with both Qods Force and the operating environment in Iraq are looking for any US intelligence information that would indicate it was a group other than Iran’s Qods Force.

    Considering US military intelligence has significantly more detailed information regarding the attack and the attackers than is publicly available, it would not be unreasonable to conclude that no such indication exists. This intelligence conclusion would explain the change in military policy put into effect nearly one week after the Karbala attack and executions to capture or kill Iranian operators in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere when actionable intelligence exists. This order was issued after the four suspects were captured in the al-Mahawil area, which is not an insignificant detail.

    Discerning Qods Force involvement is critical, as the abduction and summary execution of American soldiers is an act of war. In the past, the United States has left largely unaddressed other acts of war committed by Iran, including the 1983 bombings of the US Embassy and then the Marine Barracks in Beirut, the kidnapping, torture and murder of Marine Colonel Richard Higgins and William Buckley, the 1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia and other acts, including the supply of arms and munitions to both Shi’a and Sunni groups in Iraq used to kill American military personnel.

    How the United States reacts to this incident can be seen as a barometer for how the Bush Administration intends to deal with the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism in both the short and intermediate term. This – a test - may have been a significant part of the probable Iranian decision to go forth with the operation, Chizari’s personal satisfaction aside.
    Keep it on topic guys, abusive posting will be deleted - Seneca

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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    Thanks for that Seneca.

    Thread reopened for business, anyone's free to comment, hopefully without trolls/flames this time.

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    JP226's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    I just want to make the legitimate point that if we, as americans really did care something would be done. I think in the next week this will be disregarded and we'll go on wiht our lives. It's sad but that's what happens. Especially wiht the spineless politicians elections coming up, in 08.

    We don't care.
    Sure I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is Im not. I honestly feel that America is the best country and all other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    Quote Originally Posted by JP226 View Post
    I just want to make the legitimate point that if we, as americans really did care something would be done. I think in the next week this will be disregarded and we'll go on wiht our lives. It's sad but that's what happens. Especially wiht the spineless politicians elections coming up, in 08.

    We don't care.
    If this is true, it could only lead to the worst possible scenario: war with Iran. Given such overt Iranian involvement, its entirely possible that pro-war factions in the US will blame all of the failures in Iraq on Iran rather than admit mistakes. If they can do that, its only a short step to believing that real military victory will come from invasion or a large attack on Iranian forces.
    Given any number of random, even contradictory metaphysical postulates, a justification, however absurd, can be logically developed.

    Mapping advances anybody can use. http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showthread.php?t=39035

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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    Without a doubt in my mind war with Iran will happen. It has to. I'm of the mindset to get it over with now so we don't face that much of a worse scenario later. You can't compromise when you have two mindests that disagree to the extent that we, the US and Iran do now.

    I'll go even further and say that the war on terror is the same thing with the War on Iran. We just tried to do it with less cash expended. Apparently that isn't working.

    It's really amazing how close this correlates with the wars on tripoli. We tried diplomacy (clinton) and it failed. We tried diplomacy and warfare (Bush), it failed. We finally finished it off with all out warfare.
    Sure I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is Im not. I honestly feel that America is the best country and all other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    I think I made my own opinions known last time.

    Iran is playing with fire, and the it's only a matter of time before the international community begins to cry when Iran gets burned beyond recognition.

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    JP226's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    The international community will only make a stand when they trample on their territory. Until then they will blame us.
    Sure I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is Im not. I honestly feel that America is the best country and all other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    It's great to have allies isn't it.

    Right about now, the only Allies I realy trust are Israel and South Korea. Frankly, I trust Blair, but not the British people.

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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    Quote Originally Posted by Corporal_Hicks View Post
    It's great to have allies isn't it.

    Right about now, the only Allies I realy trust are Israel and South Korea. Frankly, I trust Blair, but not the British people.
    I would add Japan to the list.

    Oh, and Tiwaz, per your signature statement...during the liberation of Afghanistan, do you not also believe that 95% of the casualties suffered by the Coalition forces were losses by the Afghans fighting for the coalition? That being the case, I would surmise your quote then would indicate there were no American spec ops there?
    Last edited by Mikelus Trento; January 30, 2007 at 07:46 AM.
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    Wolfcp11's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    Quote Originally Posted by Corporal_Hicks View Post
    Right about now, the only Allies I realy trust are Israel and South Korea. Frankly, I trust Blair, but not the British people.
    You dont like us Canadians?
    "Quotation is a serviceable substitute for wit." -Oscar Wilde

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    JP226's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    I only trust blair as well
    Sure I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is Im not. I honestly feel that America is the best country and all other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

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    Denny Crane!'s Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    Quote Originally Posted by JP226 View Post
    I only trust blair as well
    Nobody trusts Blair, plus he has no more power left in the UK. He has about as much power as a damp tissue right now, any policy he moves with won't be his own.

    Peter

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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    Not that I don't really like the British people, it just seems that this love is not mutual.

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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    One thing I fail to see: the point of the attack.
    A plan executed by foreign special forces deep within enemy territory and involving vast amounts of training, equipment and inteligence to... kill 4 soldiers?
    That gets done with AK47s and crude explosive devices made of old land mines and copious amounts of duct tape.





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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    Quote Originally Posted by RusskiSoldat View Post
    One thing I fail to see: the point of the attack.
    A plan executed by foreign special forces deep within enemy territory and involving vast amounts of training, equipment and inteligence to... kill 4 soldiers?
    That gets done with AK47s and crude explosive devices made of old land mines and copious amounts of duct tape.
    Tell that to the Israeli military (but be careful, you might end up with a bullet or so in you).
    Anyway, I am skeptical. I have my reasons
    A) Official Wars with the U.S. are suicide attempts, whether successful or not. As soon as you put the uniform on, you've done 90% of the work for them. All they have to do is point and shoot.
    B) American Forces are on both sides of Iran: Iraq-Iran-Afghanistan. They could move in easily.
    C) Blair will probably send some troops just to show the U.S. he is still their lapdog.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    Of course this analysis fails to take into account that there is very strong and living resistance INSIDE Iraq. And that iraqi army did have even some form of special forces.

    And not only that, but these groups have apparently filled positions in just about every level of iraqi society from police, military to politics.
    And some of these groups have few foreign members as well (possible blonds in group) and have easier access to US gear as there are rather much US uniforms etc around.

    I see no solid evidence that would indicate beyond doubt that this has anything to do with Iran.


    Everyone is warhero, genius and millionaire in Internet, so don't be surprised that I'm not impressed.

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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    One thing I fail to see: the point of the attack.
    A plan executed by foreign special forces deep within enemy territory and involving vast amounts of training, equipment and inteligence to... kill 4 soldiers?
    I think the point of the attack was to try to capture a number of soldiers and/or document and information. The article does mention that the one of the reasons for why they could've been executed was because the assailants believed their escape was in jeopardy and didn't want their prisoners to become a liability.

    Of course this analysis fails to take into account that there is very strong and living resistance INSIDE Iraq. And that iraqi army did have even some form of special forces.
    I was wondering when someone would show up to and deny the article's findings. You obviously need to read it again Tiwaz, it specifically states several times that the level of sophistication shown in the raid was far beyond what either the insurgency or the militias are capable of.

    And not only that, but these groups have apparently filled positions in just about every level of iraqi society from police, military to politics.
    How does that count against anything that the article has already mentioned? You're pretty much agreeing with the evidence shown pointing to Iranian support of certain Iraqi factions.

    And some of these groups have few foreign members as well (possible blonds in group) and have easier access to US gear as there are rather much US uniforms etc around.
    And would those foreign members be Iranian by any chance?

    Also, you're completely wrong about some supposed abundance of US ACU fatigues being in great supply. Especially when the US Army's transition to them hasn't even been completed yet.

    It'd be easy for just about anyone to make knockoff/counterfeit versions of the uniforms, but the fact that they were genuinely authentic just leads to more credance that this operation had Iranian influences written all over it.

    I see no solid evidence that would indicate beyond doubt that this has anything to do with Iran.
    Read it again then. Because you definitely seem be ignoring a lot of the facts that the article presented.

    Although, if this has something to do with you not wanting to believe that Iran has meddled in Iraq at all i'd be happy to link a number of unrelated articles detailing their involvement.

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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    edit: Double Post.

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    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    Quote Originally Posted by Caelius View Post
    I was wondering when someone would show up to and deny the article's findings. You obviously need to read it again Tiwaz, it specifically states several times that the level of sophistication shown in the raid was far beyond what either the insurgency or the militias are capable of.
    Based on what? Those militias have access to multitude of old regime special forces. Specially sunni side (republican guard) which would be interested in kicking up a storm near Iran border.


    How does that count against anything that the article has already mentioned? You're pretty much agreeing with the evidence shown pointing to Iranian support of certain Iraqi factions.
    No. It does not hint at such thing. Again, professional domestic military personell are available. Only reason to pull in Iran without SOLID evidence would be to try to change blame for failure from US incompetence to ouside interference.


    And would those foreign members be Iranian by any chance?
    Or british. Or dutch. Or american. Or Saudi.

    Also, you're completely wrong about some supposed abundance of US ACU fatigues being in great supply. Especially when the US Army's transition to them hasn't even been completed yet.
    So Iran has access to them but not US army? Don't forget... Iraqis are inside US bases as well acting in many functions. It would hardly be impossibility for some suits to end up "missing".

    It'd be easy for just about anyone to make knockoff/counterfeit versions of the uniforms, but the fact that they were genuinely authentic just leads to more credance that this operation had Iranian influences written all over it.
    Yes because iranians have so much better access to US uniforms then iraqis who can have access to US military bases in Iraq...

    Read it again then. Because you definitely seem be ignoring a lot of the facts that the article presented.

    Although, if this has something to do with you not wanting to believe that Iran has meddled in Iraq at all i'd be happy to link a number of unrelated articles detailing their involvement.
    Are they as "detailed" as this one? It has nothing CONCRETE. But of couse to you it is more then enough. Is Iran meddling in Iraq? Quite likely. Does this incident prove it? Most definitely not.

    All this article has to "prove" the link to Iran is how well this thing appears to be done. As if there are no special forces trained men in Iraq. Some of their militiamen, shock and shudder, trained by USA! (militias have infiltrated training brigades as well)


    Everyone is warhero, genius and millionaire in Internet, so don't be surprised that I'm not impressed.

  20. #20

    Default Re: Analysis of eye-opening Karbala raid suggests Iranian Special Forces involvement

    You might want to reread my signature, there after multitude of threads where this 95% claim without evidence was brought forth by americans unwilling (or actually unable) to support them with anything but their own word after being presented with multitude of sources showing opposite. (but still claiming the resistance to be mainly foreign)

    Neither my signature or this thread deals with Afganistan.

    And again, appearances are not evidence. Even the title of this thread says "suggests". Article itself says "indications" and "circumstances".

    Basically there is no actual evidence but writer of article is trying to use wordplay to make claim that there is. Not to mention that author is conservative who is NOT apparently in any official position in US military. His background in source states him working in IT certificating NOT military intelligence.

    Based on his profession and political leaning it is not unreasonable to consider possible that this article is product of his desire to point out that failure in Iraq is not due to US incompetence but foreign interference. Not claiming it is, and he might be honest about his analysis but they still do not offer any credible evidence that attack was done by Iran.

    Author himself admits that resources could be gained by local militias. There ARE foreign fighters in Iraq (they are very small minority though) who could explain blond person. Iraq prior to Gulf War had effective education which could produce people with fluent english. There ARE former iraqi military members with enough training and skills to arrange such strike. They also are locals with local sources who can provide the intel for such operation.

    Those points are not at all considered or countered in this "analysis", perhaps because he did not think of them or because they show how flimsy the Iran connection is.

    I do not say that this definitely has not been iranian operation, but there are no actual evidence to say that it is and thus it is at least intellectually dishonest to consider it evidence of iranian activities in Iraq.


    Everyone is warhero, genius and millionaire in Internet, so don't be surprised that I'm not impressed.

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