Taiwan is an Independent Country - called the Republic of China

[Pontifex Maximus]

Did the chicoms shoot down fancy nancy? Were the chicoms spineless or did fancy nancy get what was coming to her? I think I am going to go with spineless cowardly, blustering chicoms. We should probably send them some idiot WNBA pot addict to incarcerate as reparations like we sent Putin.

[Laser101]

There's been some suggestions raised about the notion of China planning a Pearl Harbour-style 'knockout' blow against US forces in the West Pacific:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ea...01-p5b673.html

The problem is, this seems to assume that things would go entirely according to plan for the Chinese. Given that the US' defence budget is several times that of China, it seems to me that this plan working would only occur if the Americans were exceptionally stupid.

[Sir Adrian]

The Chinese economy is 51 days away from collapse, unless the CCP can do something about it. I don't think Pearl Harbor style attacks are even remotely possible. Xinnie the Poo has other things on his plate. Not to mention that it did not go well for the last country to do that.

[Sar1n]

The Chinese economy is 51 days away from collapse, unless the CCP can do something about it. I don't think Pearl Harbor style attacks are even remotely possible. Xinnie the Poo has other things on his plate. Not to mention that it did not go well for the last country to do that.

I must be missing something. Care to explain such exact prediction?

[Ludicus]

I think Yoon is concerned that Biden would back down on China, and so Yoon doesn't want to anger China

I would simply say that Yoon doesn't want to anger China.
According to Deborah Elms, Singapore-based executive director of the Asian Trade Center. "All of the governments in Asia have China as their No. 1 or No. 2 importer and exporter, so how much do I want to potentially antagonize my biggest economic partner in exchange for unclear, if any, benefits from the U.S.?"

The liberal perspective led Pelosi to go to Taiwan to defend liberal values – and of course - to assert the U.S. hegemony in the region. The realist perspective values the stability of the geo strategical equilibrium, and from this point of view Pelosi's visit was highly inopportune, at a time when the US is already on another war front.
Although Biden and the military have advised against this visit (supported by the Republicans who take every opportunity to demonstrate that Biden is weak and not in control of his own party) I do not believe that the American government has not carefully evaluated the pros and cons of this visit.But it would be wise to consider that the countries of the Indo-Pacific desire above all the stability of their economic relations with China to be preserved, they have no interest in supporting an open confrontation of the US with China.
Between the defense of the western"rules-based international order", and the geo-economic stability of the region, the latter prevails.

Tokyo and Seoul embarrassed by Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Officially, according to government spokesperson Hirokazu Matsuo, Japan "is not in a position to comment" on Ms. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. But according to diplomatic sources, "if we had been able to give our opinion, we would have said that it was not a good idea."
The remark implies that the archipelago was not consulted on the visit of the US official.

China's Backlash Shows the Neighborhood Who It Really Is-Bloomberg

Before the military drill began, for example, former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama accused the US of inviting war and said Japan would be “foolish” to go along with the US.
The United Arab Emirates raised eyebrows with its China-supporting stance. Perhaps most surprisingly, South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol opted not to meet with Pelosi at all, citing a scheduling conflict with his holidays.

Good news for the world peace? White House Lobbies Democrats Against Deepening Taiwan Tie

Proposed bill would designate Taiwan as a major non-NATO ally

It is sponsored by the hawks of both parties. If the proposal passes, I hope that when I come back from vacation, in a fortnight, we will not be here talking about the imminence of the third world war.

[Ukiah]

No country is perfect and that includes the US, but still, the US represents the free world and has been the protector of it. They prefer to be on the US's side. They're also wary of China's expansionism in the South China Sea and China's territorial dispute with Japan. But if the US decides to withdraw, then we'll see a communist Chinese dominance of the Pacific, which the US doesn't want to happen. And China will gain Taiwan's semiconductor industry, which the US also doesn't want to happen.

At the same time, China's market is significant and has a huge military. There's no easy answer to it.

[Narf]

The Chinese economy is 51 days away from collapse, unless the CCP can do something about it. I don't think Pearl Harbor style attacks are even remotely possible. Xinnie the Poo has other things on his plate. Not to mention that it did not go well for the last country to do that.

Adrian, what do you mean china is gonna collapse?! That would shake world economy severely, I can say that without being a big-brain in economy. How do you know this.
I know I for one would like to take out my bank investments and call some people if this is true.

[conon394]

Adrian, what do you mean china is gonna collapse?! That would shake world economy severely, I can say that without being a big-brain in economy. How do you know this.
I know I for one would like to take out my bank investments and call some people if this is true.

Probably won't collapse. But it is massively opaque. It is hiding a lot debt, real estate issues and related debt. XI's economic reforms toward state control are doing no favors to some of its most dynamic tech sectors. With growth slacking off (and realistically maybe really negative) there is a question if the party can keep its tight grip on power if can't deliver endless growth as the trade off.

[Sir Adrian]

I must be missing something. Care to explain such exact prediction?

It's not an exact prediction, it's a metaphor used by an economist whose name currently escapes me to underline imminent immediate economic crash. But I would not be surprised if hit the fan within 51 days. The protests are already tens of thousands strong and Xinnie has sent tanks in the streets.

Adrian, what do you mean china is gonna collapse?! That would shake world economy severely, I can say that without being a big-brain in economy. How do you know this.
I know I for one would like to take out my bank investments and call some people if this is true.

China is in the midst of a real-estate lending crisis that is about 15 times bigger than what hit the US in 2008. Several small banks have gone bankrupt, Evergrande is in deep financial trouble, people are refusing to pay their mortgages and because most buildings are unfinished the big banks are looking at a several billions dollars loss each, the rural banks that promised 4% rates to its depositors were caught lying to their clients - basically they did not give 4% on deposits, which are guarnateed by the government, but used the money to give out mortgages, which are not guaranteed - and now everyone wants their money back, one bank chain president ran away with 6 billion dollars.

The Chinese government is struggling to contain information and force people to pay their mortgages but they're slowly failing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ical-stability

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/31...n-geopolitics/

https://mronline.org/2022/07/22/is-c...d-for-a-crash/

[Narf]

Thank you for the cogent and quick answer, both.

Probably won't collapse. But it is massively opaque. It is hiding a lot debt, real estate issues and related debt. XI's economic reforms toward state control are doing no favors to some of its most dynamic tech sectors. With growth slacking off (and realistically maybe really negative) there is a question if the party can keep its tight grip on power if can't deliver endless growth as the trade off.

I see, so the squeeze got too firm, and the growth for control vector is shifting out of balance. Scary stuff- Thanks for answer.

It's not an exact prediction, it's a metaphor used by an economist whose name currently escapes me to underline imminent immediate economic crash. But I would not be surprised if hit the fan within 51 days. The protests are already tens of thousands strong and Xinnie has sent tanks in the streets.



China is in the midst of a real-estate lending crisis that is about 15 times bigger than what hit the US in 2008. Several small banks have gone bankrupt, Evergrande is in deep financial trouble, people are refusing to pay their mortgages and because most buildings are unfinished the big banks are looking at a several billions dollars loss each, the rural banks that promised 4% rates to its depositors were caught lying to their clients - basically they did not give 4% on deposits, which are guarnateed by the government, but used the money to give out mortgages, which are not guaranteed - and now everyone wants their money back, one bank chain president ran away with 6 billion dollars.

The Chinese government is struggling to contain information and force people to pay their mortgages but they're slowly failing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ical-stability

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/31...n-geopolitics/

https://mronline.org/2022/07/22/is-c...d-for-a-crash/

When the military is used against civilians, stability doesn't do well in the fallout, this is very bad, poor people. Cheating your folks for their money on top of that, I can understand why theyd be angry.

Do you think I should withdraw my money from my bank in expectation of market crash. Also, is there any way we from this side of the world can make sure this doesn't end in a lot of blood?

[Sar1n]

It's not an exact prediction, it's a metaphor used by an economist whose name currently escapes me to underline imminent immediate economic crash. But I would not be surprised if hit the fan within 51 days. The protests are already tens of thousands strong and Xinnie has sent tanks in the streets.



China is in the midst of a real-estate lending crisis that is about 15 times bigger than what hit the US in 2008. Several small banks have gone bankrupt, Evergrande is in deep financial trouble, people are refusing to pay their mortgages and because most buildings are unfinished the big banks are looking at a several billions dollars loss each, the rural banks that promised 4% rates to its depositors were caught lying to their clients - basically they did not give 4% on deposits, which are guarnateed by the government, but used the money to give out mortgages, which are not guaranteed - and now everyone wants their money back, one bank chain president ran away with 6 billion dollars.

The Chinese government is struggling to contain information and force people to pay their mortgages but they're slowly failing.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ical-stability

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/31...n-geopolitics/

https://mronline.org/2022/07/22/is-c...d-for-a-crash/

I wasn't aware things are that bad there. Huh...sounds like the mask of communist utopia is slipping away to reveal capitalist dystopia underneath.

[Lord Thesaurian]

I wasn't aware things are that bad there. Huh...sounds like the mask of communist utopia is slipping away to reveal capitalist dystopia underneath.

The likely result is that Beijing will gradually nationalize finance, manufacturing, real estate and tech. While this is Armageddon for foreign investors, it’s too early to project that kind of thinking onto the Chinese state itself, because you end up with “X days to collapse” predictions. The Party has always been above market forces by design, and has more tools than democracies do to shut down the kind of dissent that might pose a real threat to the regime.

It’s fair to say the domestic situation is becoming volatile and that the nature of the Chinese economy makes this volatility an engine of miraculous growth in good times, and a potential disaster in bad. While that doesn’t mean the Chinese government will collapse tomorrow, it does mean the Politburo might be more willing to take drastic measures to distract from domestic problems and mobilize an angry public to other ends, measures like attacking Taiwan.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-com...an-11659614417

[Narf]

The likely result is that Beijing will gradually nationalize finance, manufacturing, real estate and tech. While this is Armageddon for foreign investors, it’s too early to project that kind of thinking onto the Chinese state itself, because you end up with “X days to collapse” predictions. The Party has always been above market forces by design, and has more tools than democracies do to shut down the kind of dissent that might pose a real threat to the regime.

It’s fair to say the domestic situation is becoming volatile and that the nature of the Chinese economy makes this volatility an engine of miraculous growth in good times, and a potential disaster in bad. While that doesn’t mean the Chinese government will collapse tomorrow, it does mean the Politburo might be more willing to take drastic measures to distract from domestic problems and mobilize an angry public to other ends, measures like attacking Taiwan.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-com...an-11659614417

The bold part is a truly scary thought. Gods, then USA and China would be at war?! Because a bank scamming normal folks... Wow.

[Lord Thesaurian]

The bold part is a truly scary thought. Gods, then USA and China would be at war?! Because a bank scamming normal folks... Wow.

It looks like the PRC is preparing/practicing for a blockade of the island, which was always one of many scenarios. Even Chinese media compared the drills to a de facto blockade and pointed out Taiwan can easily be hit with missiles from the mainland. Munitions from the PLA drills have also landed in Japanese territorial waters. This is an escalation of Beijing’s grey zone warfare against its neighbors.

Between September 2020 and the end of August 2021, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) (中国空军) made 554 intrusions into the Taiwanese air defense identification zone (ADIZ).[1] The Communist Party of China (CCP) (中国共产党) carries out these sorties to wear down the Taiwanese Air Force, intimidate the island’s inhabitants, and shake their belief in the feasibility of an independent Taiwan. The intrusions are part of a broader effort on behalf of the CCP to operate in the gray zone (灰色地带), which encompasses “intense political, economic, informational, and military competition more fervent in nature than normal steady-state diplomacy, yet short of war” to achieve unification with Taiwan.[2] The CCP operates in the gray zone because actions below the threshold of war are less costly and less likely to trigger international reprisals.

As tensions between Beijing and Taipei have grown in recent years and with President Xi Jinping more vocally promoting unification, many fear an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Such an attack, however, comes with high costs and risks that Beijing will likely avoid until the balance of power shifts in its favor. In the meantime, China is capable of seizing outer Taiwanese islands and of imposing a blockade on the main island of Taiwan, although doing so risks galvanizing Taiwanese independence sentiment and triggering an international response. China is thus likely to use the gray zone strategies it has honed in recent decades to wear down Taiwan without triggering international opposition and expending its military strength.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/ar...ication-taiwan

How the PLA can manage to economically cut off Taiwan without risking retaliatory measures from around the world is less clear.

[Heathen Hammer]

The funniest part is that traitor-general Milley (who himself admitted he is basically a Chinese spy/asset) still has his job, meaning that if you are in US military and some escalation happens, you are not just screwed, you are double-screwed, because your command is compromised.

[conon394]

The funniest part is that traitor-general Milley (who himself admitted he is basically a Chinese spy/asset) still has his job, meaning that if you are in US military and some escalation happens, you are not just screwed, you are double-screwed, because your command is compromised.

And you get this ideal from where?

-----------------

The bold part is a truly scary thought. Gods, then USA and China would be at war?

It difficult to believe XI would lash out that hard - that is a full on invasion of Taiwan and essentially directly challenging the US to do something.

HI economic situation and and not be ensconced for another term do demand some serious stuff for domestic consumption. But at the extreme I think taking one of Taiwan's tiny islands in the straits right near China might be the outside of the envelope.

[Heathen Hammer]

And you get this ideal from where?

Milley himself said so.

I mean all American posturing in Taiwan is rendered as pointless when you factor in US military being led by a an open traitor. Beijing has dirty laundry on US political elite and exerts quite the influence on it.

[conon394]

Milley himself said so.

I mean all American posturing in Taiwan is rendered as pointless when you factor in US military being led by a an open traitor. Beijing has dirty laundry on US political elite and exerts quite the influence on it.

I rather suspect all three major nuclear powers would in any direction. That's why they all have direct secure communications between there Military commands and heads of state to prevent an escalation cycle. Just as I suspect China would if a war breaks out over Tiwan be burning up the phone lines to try to assure assure the US its ballistic missile launches where attempts to attack CVs and not ICBMs aimed at the US. Nobody wants anyone to get twitchy when we have lots of ICBS ...

[Lord Thesaurian]

Good stuff. Explains in detail how PLA training and force structure is built around attacking Taiwan.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=i7JcAvnbRtE

[Heathen Hammer]

I rather suspect all three major nuclear powers would in any direction. That's why they all have direct secure communications between there Military commands and heads of state to prevent an escalation cycle. Just as I suspect China would if a war breaks out over Tiwan be burning up the phone lines to try to assure assure the US its ballistic missile launches where attempts to attack CVs and not ICBMs aimed at the US. Nobody wants anyone to get twitchy when we have lots of ICBS ...

Yeah, I'm sure McArthur would radio Mao every time he was planning on moving divisions in Korea. Warning opposing force of your side's plans is literal spying and treason, no matter how many mental gymnastics one performs to rationalize it.