Taiwan is an Independent Country - called the Republic of China

[Heathen Hammer]

there is perhaps no bigger geopolitical issue for the US than making sure Taiwan and its various chip production and related industry does not fall into Chinese hands.

Not according to Chinese government asset general Milley. You might as well turn over control of your navy to John Cena.

[Ludicus]

You talked many people from Taiwan lately?

That's not my point.I think they are hoping that the Chinese Communist Party will one day regain influence; I mean, I don't think they want to solve an internal Chinese conflict by invading.

Anyway, one way or another, it is a Chinese conflict, as it has long been recognized by American leaders,
"We’re publishing reports by Congress’s think tank, the Congressional Research Service, which provides valuable insight and non-partisan analysis of issues of public debate. These reports are already available to the well-connected — we’re making them available to everyone for free”.

Long read, China/Taiwan: Evolution of the “One China” Policy—Key Statements from Washington, Beijing, and Taipei

Excerpt,

(…) In 1982, Senator John Glenn criticized both the Carter and Reagan Administrations:
he ambiguous formulation agreed upon in the 1979 joint communique went considerably further in recognizing the PRC's claim to Taiwan. Although the word "acknowledged" remained, the object of our acknowledgment shifted noticeably. We no longer just acknowledged that both Chinas asserted the principle that there was one China, but instead acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China.

By dropping the key phrase "all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain" one could interpret that we had moved from the position of neutral bystander noting the existence of a dispute, to a party accepting the Chinese assertion that there is one China. Clearly, this was the PRC's interpretation.... More recently, Peking's threats to downgrade relations with the United States, unless Washington agreed to end all arms sales to Taiwan, prompted President Reagan to write to China's Communist Party Chairman, Hu Yaobang, in May 1982, and assure him that, "Our policy will continue to be based on the principle that there is but one China.... " We now assert that it is our policy, U.S. policy, that there is but one China, and although not stated, indicate implicitly that Taiwan is a part of that one China.
I do not believe that anyone can dispute that the U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan has changed dramatically over the last 10 years.

Let me reiterate one more time, in 1972, we acknowledged that the Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait maintained that there was but one China. Today it is U.S. policy that there is but one China.

Despite this remarkable shift over time, the State Department, at each juncture, has assured us that our policy remained essentially unchanged.²⁶

In August 1995 (earlier than the first public statements showed in 1997), President Clinton sent a secret letter to PRC President Jiang Zemin to state that the United States: (1) would "oppose" Taiwan independence; (2) would not support "two Chinas" or one China and one Taiwan; and (3) would not support Taiwan's admission to the U.N.²⁷
This letter reportedly formed the basis of what were later known publicly as the "Three Noes."

---

..snip...

I am flattered by the quotations you make in your signature. I humbly hope to be able to contribute even more to the space that you so devoutly spend on what I say.

[conon394]

That's not my point.I think they are hoping that the Chinese Communist Party will one day regain influence; I mean, I don't think they want to solve an internal Chinese conflict by invading.

I have no ideal what that means please rephrase it?

[Ludicus]

I have no ideal what that mean s pleas rephrase it?

Thank you for asking. I meant to say that China prefers China take control of Taiwan through peaceful methods rather than military means.The invasion can happen of of course, but
Why China Prefers “Peaceful Reunification” With Taiwan?

Since the anecdotal evidence of history supports mixed results, if not negative, of diversionary foreign policies, resorting to military action to solve “Taiwan issue” is a “make-or-break” game for China. For President Xi, a victorious takeover of Taiwan would definitely help bolster public support and solidify his position in power because national pride from reunification through military victory may trump any pain and misery from economic troubles.
However, a failed attempt may suggest otherwise. Because it’s much easier to stimulate nationalism than to put it down, an embarrassing defeat may arouse prevalent frustration that coupled with discontent with economic problems, may produce something similar to what the Second French Empire and Tsarist Russia experienced.
This will be devastating not only for the leader but also for the regime and the entire Chinese population. It’s for this reason that President Xi didn’t highlight “military option” in his speech and instead, stressed “we are willing to strive for peaceful reunification with utmost sincerity and greatest efforts as peaceful reunification is in the best interests of compatriots across the Strait as well as the Chinese nation”.

For example, according to Taylor Fravel, a professor of political science and director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "In the simplest terms, China seeks to deter Taiwan from declaring independence (and perhaps the U.S. from supporting it), and use military threats toward this end, but not compel unification by force. Military power and interdependence are part of the equation, but they are not the core of the policy that China is now pursuing..Not only are the costs of invading Taiwan high, it’s not Beijing’s preferred approach for achieving unification"

Edit. Seems obvious that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has high risk and little benefit. The Chinese will regard it as a provocation.

Biden administration officials discourage House Speaker Pelosi from visiting Taiwan,


Edit
Pelosi arrives in Singapore as PM Lee calls for ′stable - DW

when meeting Pelosi, Lee "highlighted the importance of stable US-China relations for regional peace and security,"

[Lord Thesaurian]

Meanwhile, back on Earth, the more time that passes, the less and less attached to the mainland Taiwan will be.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The only way Beijing will ever seize control of Taiwan in our lifetime is through force, and any serious analysis recognizes this, whether that looks more like Ukraine 2014 or Ukraine 2022 or some combination thereof. Putin has shown the assumption authoritarian aggressors are hemmed in by broader economic or geopolitical considerations is flawed. If there’s a third option, it will look something like the CCP perpetually using “imminent” war with Taiwan/the US as justification for domestic actions, precisely because that maximizes the benefits of jingoist nationalism without having to take the risk actually doing it. Even then, the Politburo could easily face a domestic crisis that compels it to deliver on its saber rattling in order to avoid the alternatives. With zero Covid policies wreaking havoc on major cities and the real estate downturn now bleeding into the financial sector in a way that threatens the core of Beijing’s centralized, investment driven model, we may yet see such a crisis in the near term.

[conon394]

Thank you for asking. I meant to say that China prefers China take control of Taiwan through peaceful methods rather than military means

For example, according to Taylor Fravel, a professor of political science and director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "In the simplest terms, China seeks to deter Taiwan from declaring independence (and perhaps the U.S. from supporting it), and use military threats toward this end, but not compel unification by force. Military power and interdependence are part of the equation, but they are not the core of the policy that China is now pursuing..Not only are the costs of invading Taiwan high, it’s not Beijing’s preferred approach for achieving unification"

That wistful almost panglossian kinda thinking. China has spent a massive amount of money to make sure it has a military option and it Behavior in Tibet, Hong Kong and Xinjiang show a leadership rather happy to use force.

Edit. Seems obvious that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has high risk and little benefit. The Chinese will regard it as a provocation.

Ahh I see only they get to be provocative?

[Ludicus]

Pelosi will land in Formosa within the hour. Why do we always have to worry if some unfortunate incident happens? if it happens, they will say that China is to blame, they won't say that it was an act of provocation that was absolutely unnecessary. Even US administration officials made clear they'd prefer she cancel he visit.
Good luck.

[PointOfViewGun]

Not an unfortunate incident but a deliberate attack. No need to whitewash the terminology we use.

[Lord Thesaurian]

China’s failure to follow through on some of the more extreme measures proposed by nationalists to stop US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan has left some on the mainland disappointed.

Ahead of Pelosi’s arrival on Tuesday, China warned repeatedly that the US would pay a heavy price for the visit, with President Xi Jinping telling Joe Biden that “whoever plays with fire will get burned.” Hu Xijin, the prominent former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, suggested in a now-deleted tweet that Chinese warplanes could “forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane.”

After Pelosi touched down, Hu acknowledged in a post on China’s Twitter-like Weibo that the official response didn’t live up to public expectations.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...pressure-on-xi

Commies on shambleses. Looks like Beijing’s incessant “we will annihilate you all rah rah China stronk” rhetoric may backfire, as I anticipated.

[Ludicus]

Pelosi's visit lasted less than 24 hours, but the consequences will last for a long time:
-It leaves an open wound in US relations with China
- the economic sanctions China has imposed on Taiwan over Pelosi visit. Factbox: Economic sanctions China has imposed on Taiwan
-increases the possibility of an invasion of the island, although this is not the Chinese strategy at the present time.
- The blockade of the Taiwan Strait, if it happens, will further harm the island's economy.
- For US interests, it is a negative event. It brings China even closer to Russia
- Zelensky must not have appreciated this visit, even if he says otherwise. It takes away media space usually devoted to the Ukrainian war.

- its worth noting that the visit is a consequence of the disarticulation between the executive and legislative powers. It is also the culmination of a long career of confrontation that Pelosi has had with China. With this visit, Pelosi also intends to bring more votes to the Democratic Party in the upcoming elections.

What is at stake are the U.S. geostrategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. However, Pelosi's visit to the Chinese island of Formosa (although not encouraged by the U.S. executive branch) ignores the fact that not everyone in the region appreciates this fight for world supremacy, as Singapore's Prime Minister draw attention to the "the importance of stable U.S.-China relations for regional peace and security".
-
Edit.
Do not seem to be "empty threats".
Starting Thursday, the Chinese military will carry out military exercises, including live-fire actions in six maritime areas of the island. In addition to Chinese fighter jets flying over the strait, Taiwan will also be surrounded by Chinese warships, in what could be a rehearsal for a blockade.
As they put it, “exercises blockading island to become routine” PLA drills around Taiwan continue to 'rehearse reunification

[EmperorBatman999]

Commies on shambleses. Looks like Beijing’s incessant “we will annihilate you all rah rah China stronk” rhetoric may backfire, as I anticipated.

Looks like a case of "China's Final Warning."

[Ukiah]

[Ludicus]

NYTimes, As China Plans Drills Circling Taiwan, U.S. Officials Fear a a Squeeze Play.

...how to respond to a slow squeeze of the island, in which Chinese forces cut off much of the access to it, physically or digitally. That question may soon be tested for the first time in a quarter of a century…China has long had the ability to effectively encircle Taiwan if it chose to do so, so the capability itself isn’t a surprise.

Now, an interesting part,

Diversifying American support for Taiwan from arms sales is crucial. We shouldn’t just be cramming weapons down their throat. What Taiwan needs most from the U.S. is to be treated with respect.

Where have I heard that before?

---
Proud of what she did in Taiwan, the next step is to inflame tensions on the inter-Korean border. Brave woman, Pelosi intends to scare Kim Jong Un. November 8, more votes to the Democratic Party. Wouldn't it be better to go to lunch with the unpredictable sociopath?

[conon394]

Proud of what she did in Taiwan, the next step is to inflame tensions on the inter-Korean border. Brave woman, Pelosi intends to scare Kim Jong Un. November 8, more votes to the Democratic Party. Wouldn't it be better to go to lunch with the unpredictable sociopath?

What - How? Why? Last I heard The US is still great power and that means according to your favorite international IR realist it doesn't need to care about what pudgy isolated dictator of a piss any country thinks about its officials visiting a allied state.

Wouldn't it be better to go to lunch with the unpredictable sociopath?

No

unpredictable

I'd say he is pretty predictable so its unlikely he does anything after all anything actually scary likely ends his is fat happy life.

[Lord Thesaurian]

The Chinese economy is one of the most over leveraged and overexposed to international trade in the world. Without the protections and norms afforded by the global system America built, the Chinese dream will cease to exist, and the Politburo knows this. The latter have trapped themselves between their American benefactors and their own citizenry, whom they have driven to demand Beijing try to bite off the hand that feeds it. The CCP says America is “playing with fire,” but that narrative is pure projection.

[alhoon]

Please do not promote illegal activities towards politicians you don't agree with. It is against the Terms of Service.

[Ukiah]

[Ludicus]

In South Korea, Pelosi avoids public comments on Taiwan and China.

After infuriating China over her trip to Taiwan,

Seoul says

Local media and lawmakers from Yoon's party have pointed to the fact that no official delegation was sent to greet Pelosi, even as Yoon was photographed attending a play in central Seoul the same night

The official reason: the President of Korea was on a staycation.
The true reason: China remains South Korea's largest trading partner, South Korea's Top Trading Partners - World's Top Exports

South Korea Is Caught Between China and the United States

Apart from South Korea, the United States has no other treaty ally in mainland Asia that has been willing to host a persistent U.S. military presence.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Lol cope

Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea’s right-wing opposition People Power Party won Wednesday’s presidential election with a tough-on-China, closer to the U.S. message that could reshape the balance of power in East Asia.

Key elements of Yoon’s foreign policy platform, including the acquisition of high-tech anti-missile weapons systems and a move to join the U.S., Australia and Japan in the regional geostrategic grouping called The Quad, will be welcomed by the Biden administration. But those policies risk antagonizing China into deepening ongoing economic sanctions against South Korea for participating in the U.S.-led THAAD missile defense program.

“Public sentiment in Korea is very anti-China because of the THAAD sanctions and China’s appropriation of South Korean culture at the Winter Olympics. So, Yoon has room to be tougher on China,” Victor Cha, former director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, said in a statement. “This is connected to North Korea in the sense that Yoon will not allow his foreign policy to be dictated by engagement with North Korea (like the incumbent), which means that he will not allow China to hold the NK card over his head all the time.”

Yoon, a former prosecutor, made China a key part of his campaign. He accused the administration of outgoing President Moon Jae-in of having “succumbed to Chinese economic retaliation at the expense of its own security interest” and called for South Korea to align its foreign policy more closely with Japan and the U.S.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...china-00015960

[Ukiah]

“Public sentiment in Korea is very anti-China because of the THAAD sanctions and China’s appropriation of South Korean culture at the Winter Olympics. So, Yoon has room to be tougher on China,” Victor Cha, former director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, said in a statement.

Actually, the claim that the South Koreans are upset at China's appropriation of Korean culture at the Winter Olympics is an exaggeration and distracts from the real issues between these two countries. Most of the Koreans don't care and don't even remember it. Many others didn't even watch the ceremony.

The decision to purchase THAAD started in 2017 under Obama's coercion. This was after North Korea tested a nuke and missiles during South Korea's conservative Park administration.





THAAD is a defensive weapon and the purchase of it was in response to North Korea. South Korea never intended to use it against China. The Chinese government said that deploying THAAD in South Korea would reveal China's missile installations. When President Park bought THAAD, China imposed economic sanctions on South Korea. This lowered President Park's popularity among the South Korean leftists. Prior to the sanctions, China was already South Korea's biggest export market. And South Korea was the biggest exporter to China. The Park administration was originally not anti-Chinese. She was invited to China's military parade in 2015. The North Korean delegate (North Korea and China were and are still allied together during the Korean War) was made to sit at the back while the South Korean president sat at the front row. (President Park is the lady in yellow at 0:35).



I don't know if North Korea intended to divide South Korea and China through its nuke and missile tests, but the tests certainly accomplished that. President Park also wanted China to help solve the nuke and missile problems in North Korea. China cooperated until the THAAD situation came. Also, the Chinese soldiers outnumbered the entire UN Forces in Korea during 1950-1953. It's no surprise that the South Koreans want to avoid another war with China. (The Korean War began when North Korea invaded South Korea).

Local media and lawmakers from Yoon's party have pointed to the fact that no official delegation was sent to greet Pelosi, even as Yoon was photographed attending a play in central Seoul the same night

Yoon, a former prosecutor, made China a key part of his campaign. He accused the administration of outgoing President Moon Jae-in of having “succumbed to Chinese economic retaliation at the expense of its own security interest” and called for South Korea to align its foreign policy more closely with Japan and the U.S.

South Korea's President Yoon is an enigma. He was originally the prosecutor general of the previous Moon administration. The Moon administration that appeased North Korea and China clearly liked something about Yoon and appointed him. The relationship broke when Yoon decided to prosecute the Minister of Justice Cho Kuk who was involved in various scandals. Lawmakers in Moon's party called Yoon to resign. Later on, Yoon resigned and joined the opposition/conservative party. One thing that raised my attention was that none of the candidates who debated on television for the 2022 presidential election were originally from the conservative party. As mentioned before, Yoon who was originally handpicked by Moon, ran for president as the conservative/opposition party. Another candidate, Ahn, left Moon's same party much earlier. Later on during the presidential race, Ahn joined Yoon's side. Another candidate ran as Moon's leftist party. And another candidate ran as a different leftist party. She was highly critical of the Moon administration on domestic policies. Yoon criticized the Moon administration on various things such as the appeasement policy on North Korea, the closing of the nuclear power plants, corruption, etc. Some of the South Korean conservatives think Moon is actually a North Korean spy. However, Yoon is now appeasing China and avoided meeting with Nancy Pelosi. I don't know whose side Yoon is really on. But it seems that Yoon doesn't want to go the same path as Park did, the result of which Park suffered heavily from. Obama didn't help Park when China imposed economic sanctions on South Korea. I think Yoon is concerned that Biden would back down on China, and so Yoon doesn't want to anger China.

As I said before, there are other issues with China bigger than the cultural appropriation thing. During the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic speed skating competition, a Chinese speed skater hurt a South Korean speed skater with his blade. There was a great increase in the number of Chinese fishermen who intruded into South Korean waters. These fishermen were aggressive and have fought against the coast guard. China has stolen South Korean technology and has stolen some of South Korea's factories in China. During the torch relay of the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics, the torch went through Seoul, South Korea. A Tibetan protester was beat up by a large group of Chinese students until the police came. The Chinese netizens changed the story and made up a claim that the South Koreans attacked the Chinese students. I remember when a Canadian I met claimed that the South Koreans hated the Chinese. His Chinese co-workers told him the made-up version of the torch relay incident. Tibetan protests also happened in the other cities of North America and Europe (and I think Australia if I remember correctly) when the torch went through those regions. And as I stated earlier, China has hit South Korea with economic sanctions before.