Taiwan is an Independent Country - called the Republic of China

[nein]

The false god of Democracy is cancer, an oligarch puppet show.

[Roma_Victrix]

The false god of Democracy is cancer, an oligarch puppet show.

That's way more true of the kleptocracy that lobbies and controls the US Congress than most other democracies around the globe, especially Nordic style social democracies like Denmark, Sweden and Norway. It's also irrelevant to the situation between the People's Republic of China versus Taiwan. There is no bigger lurching oligarchy than the ruling CCP. At least Taiwan has rival parties that offer different platforms and political choices. People in mainland China don't have that luxury, although they have had better living conditions in the past few decades since the reforms of Deng Xiaoping.

China also has some advantages over democracies like the US in that they can just throw crazy amounts of money at infrastructure projects without worrying about special interests getting in the way. It's the reason they have high speed rail networks and the USA does not, instead relying on the US Airline industry which is desperate to stop such things dead in their tracks. Overall, though, people living in Japan, South Korea, Canada, Northern and Western Europe are much happier than people living in various autocracies.

[conon394]

that they can just throw crazy amounts of money at infrastructure projects without worrying about special interests getting in the way. It's the reason they have high speed rail networks and the USA does not, instead relying on the US Airline industry which is desperate to stop such things dead in their tracks.

That is a colored on China's side. It also means thay don't have to worry about if some mega project makes sense, care if they take private property or pollute or damage somebodies valuation of their property, or use shoddy construction or make sure their glitzy toy is making money or least paying its debt.

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-spe...o-a-debt-trap/

[Lord Thesaurian]

China also has some advantages over democracies like the US in that they can just throw crazy amounts of money at infrastructure projects without worrying about special interests getting in the way. It's the reason they have high speed rail networks and the USA does not, instead relying on the US Airline industry which is desperate to stop such things dead in their tracks. Overall, though, people living in Japan, South Korea, Canada, Northern and Western Europe are much happier than people living in various autocracies.

Some 45% of Chinese GDP comes from investment and 60% of market capitalization comes from SOEs. The government pumps in massive stimulus every year and attempts to curtail this reliance on credit have only exposed how heavily China’s growth model depends upon it, with domestic credit expanding to nearly double private sector GDP since 2008. Post-Covid the economy is even more dominated by the public sector as the government leverages SOEs to prop up the system. There’s only so many trains you can build before diminishing returns catch up and a consumption economy fails to materialize.

To top it off, rising wages mean China is no longer the world’s low cost producer, but they are still too poor to offset production with consumption and so are desperately trying to move up the value chain. Rather than learning the wrong lesson a second time and helping Beijing pull this off, the US would do well to further decouple from China and insulate ourselves from this slow-mo implosion before even more western capital is wasted on it. With less and less success to hang his hat on, we can only hope Xi Jinping doesn’t decide Taiwan is his legacy.

[Condottiere 40K]

Roads, tracks and air routes can complement each other, as a rule of thumb, dependent on distance and traffic.

Problem with high speed rail on the Mainland is, it's become shorthand for infrastructural development in a region, supervised by party apparatchiks that are using money that they usually don't have to account for, for projects to polish their resumes.

[Ludicus]

Perhaps it is time to recognize them as a sovereign state.

The ROC has been struggling since 1949 (when Chiang Kai-shek, defeated by Mao Zedong, took refuge on the island with two million exiles and formed an autonomous government) to be recognized as sovereign, but neither the United Nations nor most countries accept it as such.

It’s also worth nothing that the article 8 of the Potsdam declaration stipulates that “the terms of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out” and the Cairo Declaration states that “all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa and the Pescadores, shall be restored to the Republic of China”

That said, the United States is the decision-maker to whom Formosa belongs.Sometimes they decide one way, sometimes they decide differently.

View of Dean Acheson's Press Club Speech Reexamined

By late 1949, Truman and Acheson had decided that the People's Republic of China (PRC) would launch an invasion of Taiwan in the near future to destroy the last remnants of Jiang Jieshi's government.¹ The president announced his determination to remain uninvolved in the Chinese Civil War on 5 January 1950, explaining that while the United States would continue economic aid to Taiwan, US military aid and advice would cease. Such an approach, Truman insisted, proved that the United States had no predatory designs on Chinese territory and sought no specific privileges or military bases. Acheson denied that the statement constituted any reversal of US policy. The United States, he explained, had recognized Taiwan as Chinese territory in World War II and would not violate its past agreements. Far more important, Acheson insisted that military aid would not help Jiang and the Guomindang. The United States could not give "a will to resist and a purpose for resistance to those who must provide it for themselves."²

[Gaius Baltar]

Pelosi Taiwan visit: Beijing vows consequences if US politician travels to island

I wonder what China can do if/when Pelosi visits Taiwan?

Most likely some type of air/naval demonstration. Not sure if they would go full blockade.

[Sir Adrian]

Nothing. These are empty threats. They did the same thing with Lithuania a while a go. And with a small Norwegian town before that still. Guess what happened? Nothing.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Pelosi Taiwan visit: Beijing vows consequences if US politician travels to island


I wonder what China can do if/when Pelosi visits Taiwan?

Most likely some type of air/naval demonstration. Not sure if they would go full blockade.

IMO the overreaction to this and dithering from the US establishment plays into Beijing’s hands. High level EU officials visited Taiwan and nothing happened. The more drama that accumulates over this beforehand, the more pressure the Politburo will be under to take action for the sake of saving face.

[conon394]

Nothing. These are empty threats. They did the same thing with Lithuania a while a go. And with a small Norwegian town before that still. Guess what happened? Nothing.

Doesn't how empty or not they are this a god play by Pelosi. The US has got finally stop with the ambiguity on Taiwan. Hong Kong and the Xinjiang show there but one China. But more important Taiwan's Chip Fabs and related industries are a strategic asset of import such that the house of Saud is chump change in comparison. The US cannot really afford to have China take Taiwan.

[Heathen Hammer]

Doesn't make much difference when high-ranking American generals like Milley openly commit treason and prostitute themselves to America's enemies. At the end of the day, the only thing that keeps Taiwan independent is Taiwan's own resolve to defend itself (which it can being an island and Chinese army being not very experienced or organized to tackle such a military operation). But if its authorities make some kind of deal with Beijing, then it will be all over.

[Gaius Baltar]

IMO the overreaction to this and dithering from the US establishment plays into Beijing’s hands. High level EU officials visited Taiwan and nothing happened. The more drama that accumulates over this beforehand, the more pressure the Politburo will be under to take action for the sake of saving face.

Then what is Biden complaining about? It seems he and Milley are taking their orders from the CCP now. Maybe they will try to stop the trip themselves. Milley is far to close to the CCP generals I think. I mean, what's some logistical information between friends?

[Lord Thesaurian]

Then what is Biden complaining about? It seems he and Milley are taking their orders from the CCP now. Maybe they will try to stop the trip themselves. Milley is far to close to the CCP generals I think. I mean, what's some logistical information between friends?

It does seem odd the Administration is publicly airing some level of internal disagreement over this. I don’t factor in any of the alphabet soup that falls out of Biden’s mouth whenever he’s allowed in front of a camera, but I agree Milley is not one of the good guys. At the same time, I think he’s a symptom rather than a cause.

It’s pretty telling that we put severe sanctions on the likes of Russia and Iran while the CCP gets to make Disney movies, even while causing a global pandemic, systematically imprisoning and slaughtering ethnic minorities, and actively working to undermine US interests around the world at every possible opportunity. So long as the likes of Wall Street, Big Tech, and the richest man in the world are desperate for the Politburo to give them milkies, the grotesque charade will continue, strengthening China at the expense of the US. In that sense, US elites are indeed taking orders from Beijing. If I were king for a day…..

At this point Pelosi is already adding stops to her hypothetical Asia trip, probably as a way of justifying why Taiwan didn’t make the list in the end. Kevin McCarthy has said publicly he will lead a bipartisan delegation to Taiwan if Republicans retake the House, and even if unlikely, is already less ambiguous than the Democrats have been about this. But so long as the US keeps pretending strategic ambiguity is still viable, these kinds of trips are only as good as angering Beijing for the sake of it IMO. What Taiwan needs is weapons, weapons and more weapons. Billions of dollars’ worth are pouring into Ukraine after the fact when that should have been the case before Russia invaded. I can only hope the lesson is learned. If Beijing can’t be deterred (IMO a big factor there will be whether NATO ultimately backs down in Ukraine), the only option is to ensure Taiwan can defend against any attack indefinitely until help arrives.

[Ludicus]

Remarks by President Biden After Air Force One Arrival -The White House

Q. Mr. President, do you think it’s a good idea for Speaker Pelosi to travel to Taiwan this summer?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, I — I think that — the military thinks it’s not a good idea right now.

If I were king for a day….

The atomic war would be assured. Only our corpses would be here to talk about this.Boom!

[conon394]

Its a trick question. He can't directly criticize his party leader of a co equal branch in public. And endorsing the trip would turn into formal US policy. Is goes now as simply the leader of the House, and china has real melt down that look like the fragile ones. His answer was a reasonable deflection i I dunno perhaps no comment would have been better.

[Ludicus]

According to the NYTimes, U.S. Officials Grow More Concerned.

Pelosi “None of us have ever said we’re for independence when it comes to Taiwan”.

There is a huge difference between saying and thinking. What Pelosi really thinks is that Taiwan is independent for all intents and purposes.

In my opinion, China is not interested in invading Taiwan if things stay as they are. I think they prefer to wait patiently until the peaceful agglutination of the island, even if it takes years. But if the US tries to militarize the island like they did in Ukraine, China will invade. If China is absolutely determined to take the island it probably can.

[conon394]

I think they prefer to wait patiently until the peaceful agglutination of the island

What make you think that will happen?

[Gaius Baltar]

China announces live-fire naval exercises ahead of possible Pelosi Taiwan visit

I recent article in the Global Times even suggested that Pelosi's plane could be shot down.

"During the sensitive period, the People's Liberation Army will monitor Pelosi's plane in a timely manner. If it is found flying toward our airspace, the PLA fighter jets could warn, follow, intercept, electronically interfere, force a landing, or drive it back. In this process, any consequences may occur, and the responsibility rests entirely with the US."

The US has a carrier group in the region.

Perhaps some type of air and/or naval confrontation but not necessarily with shots fired.

[Ludicus]

What make you think that will happen?

I think that is what they are after, perhaps waiting for an opportunity to influence a political change.Although as you know, there have been American leaders who in the past declared that they did not have to meddle in China's internal problems.
--


Trump slams Pelosi's planned Taiwan visit

and with good reason. Trump's domestic and international policies (climate change policies and others) were awful but he lacks the expansionist imperialistic tendencies of the neo-cons. Let’s keep in mind that since a long time ago Democrats Continue to Unify With Bush-Era Neocons (2017)

This union is far more than a marriage of convenience to stop Trump; it reflects broad-based agreement on U.S. hawkishness toward Russia and beyond. What we see instead are leading Democratic foreign policy experts joining hands with the world’s worst neocons to form new, broad-based policy advocacy groups to re-shape U.S. foreign policy toward a more hostile, belligerent, and hawkish posture
…the return of neocons to full-scale D.C. respectability, riding all the way on the backs of eager, grateful establishment Democrats.

[conon394]

I think that is what they are after, perhaps waiting for an opportunity to influence a political change

You talked many people from Taiwan lately? But in any case that's funny 'opportunity to influence a political change' I see that's working out well fir the Uyghurs and Hong Kong (with that One China two err one system thing) proved such a moderating force in China. I suppose next you argue China would moderate is policies in Tibet if the Dali lama would just return home and stop being critical of the government.

Polling Generally does not show A people just waiting to return to China.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/fro.../11/2003762406

https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-chin...olling-1724546

Trump slams Pelosi's planned Taiwan visit

and with good reason. Trump's domestic and international policies (climate change policies and others) were awful but he lacks the expansionist imperialistic tendencies of the neo-cons. Let’s keep in mind that since a long time ago Democrats Continue to Unify With Bush-Era Neocons (2017)

Any time you policy is slammed by Trump it a good thing. You seem to forgetting Trump quick phone call to Taiwan after his election was deemed just as seriousness a level of interference.

In any case Ludicus certain people you like to quote will point out Great powers have interests devoid of feeling, and there is perhaps no bigger geopolitical issue for the US than making sure Taiwan and its various chip production and related industry does not fall into Chinese hands.