Taiwan is an Independent Country - called the Republic of China

[EmperorBatman999]

Taiwan should just dispense with the whole Republic of China name. They know damn well that short of some apocalyptic event happening in the PRC, they're not taking the mainland back. They should just drop Republic of China from their name and just go with Republic of Taiwan.

That would constitute an act of outright secession from China, and would actually likely increase the risk of hostility.

The ROC may be a pretender to the Chinese state, but they at the very least recognize themselves to be part of China, which keeps the door open to reuniting with the mainland. This was also the concern when Tsai Ingwen's Democrats ousted the KMT from power in the elections several years ago: the Democrats are a pro-Taiwan/Secessionists party, while the KMT wants to keep the cause of reunification somehow alive, despite how unrealistic it is.

Edit: I realize several days ago I wrote PRC when I meant the Republic of China.

[Heathen Hammer]

Taiwan should certainly keep republic of China name.
First it is necessary to deny the legitimacy to communists that occupy Chinese mainland.
Second, once CCP goes Gorbachev (which is inevitability with commie regimes), it would be easy to reunite the mainland, or at least some of it back under control of legitimate Chinese government.

[swabian]

Yup, yup, yup. Oh boy, what a topic.

So this conflict is actually on the horizon within the next 10 years or so i wager. As i am bit of a selfish prick, the first thing that comes to mind are collapsing markets lol, but in all seriousness... can this even go non-nuclear?

What is the opinions of the inclined armchair generals, please? Seriously, this has me gnwing fingernails as of late as if corona and now this new omicron crap isn't bad enough. I'll soon chew on mere stomps. It's so hard not to drink these days, i swear.

So nuclear or not? Wouldn't the first thing be not the axe swinging, karaoke yodling charge at Taiwan's shores but an all out nuclear war, beginning with an attack on US bases in Australia?? Those Chinese are lethally indoctrinated and terribly naive. If Xi is an actual madman, his landsmen would follow him to doom, wouldn't they?

So are we screwed, or what peeps?

[Sar1n]

Yup, yup, yup. Oh boy, what a topic.

So this conflict is actually on the horizon within the next 10 years or so i wager. As i am bit of a selfish prick, the first thing that comes to mind are collapsing markets lol, but in all seriousness... can this even go non-nuclear?

What is the opinions of the inclined armchair generals, please? Seriously, this has me gnwing fingernails as of late as if corona and now this new omicron crap isn't bad enough. I'll soon chew on mere stomps. It's so hard not to drink these days, i swear.

So nuclear or not? Wouldn't the first thing be not the axe swinging, karaoke yodling charge at Taiwan's shores but an all out nuclear war, beginning with an attack on US bases in Australia?? Those Chinese are lethally indoctrinated and terribly naive. If Xi is an actual madman, his landsmen would follow him to doom, wouldn't they?

So are we screwed, or what peeps?

Whether there will be a real war for Taiwan, and whether it'll go nuclear, will depend on three factors within CCP. Pragmatism, fanaticism and desperation.
Pragmatism. As it stands now, the saber-rattling is currently more beneficial to CCP than open conflict. It is an authoritative regime that relies on nationalism and display of power. For that reason, having "foreign devils preventing rightful reunification of the country" as propaganda piece is more useful in keeping the citizens in line than costly invasion. This can, however, change if CCP manages to become economically indispensable to civilized countries, so the condemnation of the invasion won't result in economic isolation and collapse. CCP is aggressively pursuing such strategy by attempting to control access to rare earths through policy toward Africa which I wouldn't hesitate to call a second colonization. If it succeeds, the invasion will follow with similar results to Russia's Crimean anabasis.
Fanaticism. As the regime lacks even those badly functioning control mechanisms that democracies have, it's inevitable that the higher ranks of CCP will gradually fill with two kinds of people. Inept, corrupt officials that gained their position thanks to nepotism or rectal alpinism, and fanatics raised on the propaganda. If the fanatics gain enough power, they might launch a war because they believe in Chinese supremacy. That won't happen soon, as Xinnie might be egomaniacal dictator but he's neither inept nor fanatic.
Desperation. Under certain conditions, CCP might start losing its hold over people, and might launch the invasion in a desperate attempt to maintain its hold on people and isolate them from the outside world. This will most likely result in China imploding into new, bigger North Korea, with famine, purges and total control.

I don't think that anyone is suicidal enough to open up with nuclear weapons yet. However, it might escalate into nuclear warfare under these conditions (and perhaps more).
US launch an ivasion of the Chinese mainland after defeating the invasion.
India joins the war and launches a successful land incursion deep into Chinese territory while Chinese troops are occupied elsewhere.
Chinese invasion succeeds, but US launches a successful attempt to retake the island.
Most likely, US will launch a large-scale search and destroy operation against Chinese submarines. A cornered, fanatical captain of one might just be stupid enough to use the nuclear armanent in last-ditch attempt.

[swabian]

Nukes will be used. The longer they are stored, the more likely it is that they are used in a "limited" way.

Amerifolks, everyone knows that you have the biggest schlongs. Nobody is contesting you, except your womenfolk.

If you use those weapons there will be no tomorrow. And not for you either. Stop threatening with them and do not sell them. If it is not you who takes responsibility for the spread of nuclear armament, then who is it supposed to be?

[Heathen Hammer]

Uhh, there is a reason why nukes were never used, even in wars America lost in humiliating fashion like Afghanistan and Vietnam. Heck the only time it was used was to demonstrate the Soviet s their new toy at the end of WW2, before Soviets have funny ideas about rushing to France with their tanks.
In case of Taiwan, how would a nuke even be used? What, Chinese are going to nuke the island they try to invade? Are Americans going to nuke the island they are trying to protect? Or they will nuke Chinese mainland where half their assets and stocks of American ruling elite are located? Don't make me laugh. America is too corrupt to start a nuclear war and China does not have any interest to do that, so we are all safe. For now.

[swabian]

In case of Taiwan, how would a nuke even be used? What, Chinese are going to nuke the island they try to invade? Are Americans going to nuke the island they are trying to protect? Or they will nuke Chinese mainland where half their assets and stocks of American ruling elite are located?

Of course not Taiwan. China is calculating that Australia will get involved and of course consider attacking the US bases there while simultaneously landing on Taiwan with marines, supported by destroyers and air support (helicopters and fighters). That's how they figure it's going to work for them. This is already a huge talking point in the Australian media.

Don't make me laugh.

You give me a tired smirk, bro. Just a tired and bored and resigned chuckle.

America is too corrupt to start a nuclear war and China does not have any interest to do that, so we are all safe.

That's exactly it. It's a degenerate elite that is corrupt and that is absolutely incompetent and in large parts delusional and insane. Many of them are just a bunch of raging morons who were born with a silver spoon in the :wub:. They are idiots who are held in high regards by a population of sheep that is high on the "American Dream"-delusion. They are running the world economy into the ground hand in hand with the Chinese as we speak. You're hopelessly overestimating this caste. There is a distinct probability that they might miscalculate (as is historically well established) and retaliate nuclearly.

For now.

No we're not. Especially not when it eventually only depends on how insane Xi is. Nobody knows what is going on in this devious little rodent brain. He might actually be so full of himself and China's enormous upwind over the past decades that he also might try another thing that he might just regard as one more impossible feat to accomplish on the path to global Chinese domination. I doubt he's sane and i doubt he has one jot of rational judgement left. About the same goes for the majority of the CCP members. This is a total powder keg ready to blow off.

[Heathen Hammer]

Of course not Taiwan. China is calculating that Australia will get involved and of course consider attacking the US bases there while simultaneously landing on Taiwan with marines, supported by destroyers and air support (helicopters and fighters). That's how they figure it's going to work for them. This is already a huge talking point in the Australian media.

China doesn't really have capacity to do that. I mean it would literally require preparation and planning that would overshadow operation Overlord. And CCP military has history in everything except for winning wars.

You give me a tired smirk, bro. Just a tired and bored and resigned chuckle.
That's exactly it. It's a degenerate elite that is corrupt and that is absolutely incompetent and in large parts delusional and insane. Many of them are just a bunch of raging morons who were born with a silver spoon in the :wub:. They are idiots who are held in high regards by a population of sheep that is high on the "American Dream"-delusion. They are running the world economy into the ground hand in hand with the Chinese as we speak. You're hopelessly overestimating this caste. There is a distinct probability that they might miscalculate (as is historically well established) and retaliate nuclearly. No we're not. Especially not when it eventually only depends on how insane Xi is. Nobody knows what is going on in this devious little rodent brain. He might actually be so full of himself and China's enormous upwind over the past decades that he also might try another thing that he might just regard as one more impossible feat to accomplish on the path to global Chinese domination. I doubt he's sane and i doubt he has one jot of rational judgement left. About the same goes for the majority of the CCP members. This is a total powder keg ready to blow off.

Don't get me wrong, I think Western elites are useless overpriveledged trash, that is only in power because of whim of circumstance.
Having said that, the good thing is they are also cowards. I still remember laughing when a bunch of boomers walked around Congress building last January and taking selfies, all while American Congressmen of both parties were crapping their pants (quite literally, there were reports of that) and pretending like it was some kind of "terrorist attack". Now compare these people to Teddy Roosevelt, who got shot in the gut during campaign event and proceeded to make his speech with a slug still inside of him. Do you really think those worthless sniveling cowards within Western elites would risk anything with nuclear option if push ever comes to shove? Hell no, it is more likely they'll roll over and let China do what it wants, because the days when America wasn't ruled by cowards ended long time ago.

[EarthFlatter]

I don't know. Lets just end us all of with nukegeddon.

[Ludicus]

In case of Taiwan, how would a nuke even be used? What, Chinese are going to nuke the island they try to invade? Are Americans going to nuke the island they are trying to protect? Or they will nuke Chinese mainland where half their assets and stocks of American ruling elite are located?

What is at stake is, above all, the possibility that escalation will lead to disaster.In a conventional war, Winter Is Coming | Proceedings - July 2020 Vol. 146/7/1,409

The Pentagon has reportedly enacted 18 war games against China over Taiwan, and China has prevailed in every one”- Fareed Zakaria, “The New China Scare,” Foreign Affairs (January/February 2020): 52.

--
Edit. A very interesting analysis.
growth in US bases – Investigative Reporting Workshop

..the deeper roots to why there are these U.S. bases popping up in Africa in particular [is that there is] something of a new scramble for Africa that resembles that of the late 19th century scramble among European empires for control of resources in parts of Africa.

China in particular, the greatest competitor to the U.S. government, has been pursuing this competition with economic tools by making strategic investments [and] by helping to build soccer stadiums. By contrast, the U.S. government has pursued the competition largely with U.S. military might — by making investments in military infrastructure, training, military exercises and the like.

U.S. military bases are, in my mind, a largely overlooked tool of U.S. imperial power since World War II. U.S. military bases have, since World War II, occupied dozens of countries and, at times, have actually numbered even more than the 800 today, and they’ve been a major tool by which the United States government has been able to exercise power and control over local governments [and] over local people to advance [the] economic and political interests of … U.S. corporations [and] U.S. elites

Many people in the United States don’t like to think of our country as an empire. In my mind, [we’re] a country that expanded across an entire continent from 13 original states to conquer the entire continent …with all the death and destruction that entailed, and then began acquiring territories, colonies, outside of North America as well as exercising imperial power through a long series of invasions in Latin America all the way to the invasions of the Middle East that we’ve seen since 1980 — the series of wars that have been, again, in my mind, catastrophic to say the least.

There’s a large academic body of literature (*) that shows that it’s largely [either] inconclusive [or] does not support the idea that military bases are an effective form of deterrence. If anything, my biggest concern is that encircling China and Russia, in particular, with U.S. military bases and U.S. military power only encourages them to respond. My fear is that there’s the danger of a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy whereby people calling for a U.S. military buildup in east Asia to counter China …are actually helping to create the very threat that they’re trying to prevent, making war more likely, rather than less likely.
Many people within the military share the concerns I have about U.S. military bases abroad and people across the political spectrum increasingly [are] asking why the U.S. has so many military bases abroad [and whether] they justify the roughly $50 billion a year the U.S. government and U.S. taxpayers are paying to support them.

(*) Excerpt, Withdrawing from Overseas Bases: Why a Forward‐​Deployed Military Posture Is Unnecessary, Outdated, and Dangerous

The United States has frequently supported dictators abroad to secure basing access. U.S. support for the Somozas in Nicaragua, Mobutu in Zaire, Park Chung Hee in Korea, Papadopoulos in Greece, Franco in Spain, Marcos in the Philippines, and Karimov in Uzbekistan conforms to this trend. Uzbekistan is an illustrative example.

Support for dictators in return for basing access has been an element in U.S. foreign policy for a long time, but even bases in relatively democratic countries can involve the sacrifice of liberal values. As far back as the early years of the Eisenhower administration, “[o]verseas military bases were beginning to provoke anti‐​American sentiment in the countries where they were located,” writes John Lewis Gaddis. ⁸⁶ Resentment over the presence of foreign bases can linger for generations. In 1991, the New York Times reported that the Philippine Senate “assailed [the U.S. military presence] as a vestige of colonialism and an affront to Philippine sovereignty.

Public opinion in Okinawa, Japan, is resoundingly opposed to the U.S. military base presence on the territory, a feeling that is exacerbated by the recurrent problem of crimes and misbehavior by U.S. troops there. From 1972 to 2011, the Okinawan prefectural government documented 5,747 criminal cases involving GIs, including more than a thousand violent offenses. ⁸⁸ In June 2016, the alleged murder of a 20‐​year‐​old Okinawan woman by a U.S. Marine veteran working as a civilian contractor prompted a protest in the capital of the Okinawan Prefecture with 65,000 people in attendance.

Keeping to what he calls a “very conservative estimate,” American University’s David Vine estimates a total of $71.8 billion in annual cost for overseas bases, facilities, and personnel.

Philippines Orders U.S. to Leave Strategic Navy Base at Subic
In Japan's Okinawa, voters deliver a resounding no to new US Millitary base

[Lord Thesaurian]

Lmao >it’s America’s fault communist China and communist Russia are/were militaristic, expansionist hegemons. Source: Libertarian evidence.

Back on Earth, the perspective that US strength, not weakness, may convince China and Russia to pursue war before they fall further behind goes like this:

The risk of confrontation between the U.S. and China is greater than it has been in decades, and a broader war, triggered by a Chinese action against Taiwan, is a possibility. In “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” (2017), Graham Allison likened the situation to the Peloponnesian War, which the Athenian historian thought inevitable because Sparta feared the rising power of Athens.

Yet the real reason for the current tensions has less to do with the decline and rise of great powers than with threat perceptions, balance-of-power estimates, autonomous assessments and internal decisions that have been driving China—and Russia—for several years now. (They have increasingly aligned in their opposition to the U.S. and the post-Cold War international order.) The rising threat of high-intensity state-on-state war is driven by the growing elite conviction in Beijing and Moscow that their power disadvantage relative to the U.S. and its allies will worsen unless they move soon, making victory increasingly unattainable.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-...ne-11639497466

[Coughdrop addict]

https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...y-in-its-place

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is intrinsically totalitarian, belligerent, arbitrary, expansionist and contemptuous of international law. And under Xi Jinping, the CCP has become more despotic, coercive and punitive. With its “tribute nation” approach to weak, vulnerable states, it seeks to influence their sovereign decisions.
But now a midget nation, with just 18,500 active military personnel, has set an example for bigger countries on how not to succumb to the efforts of the world’s largest, strongest and longest-surviving autocracy to impose its will through coercive pressure.
Lithuania, with a population smaller than the smallest second-tier Chinese city, has stood up to China by defying its threats and letting Taiwan open a representative office in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital. This action was preceded by Lithuania’s withdrawal from the 17+1, which groups 17 countries of East and Central Europe with China to help promote Xi’s neo-imperial Belt and Road Initiative. And after its defense ministry found that Chinese mobile phones had built-in censorship capabilities, Lithuania advised consumers to ditch such devices.

The author is far too nice. China is a neo-fascist criminal empire seeking nothing less than to impose an iron fisted tyranny over every person on this Earth. Opposing them isn't just patriotism, it's the bare minimum of being a decent human being.

[Heathen Hammer]

In that light, very intimate relationship between Creepy Joe's bank account, his crackhead son and CCP government is quite hilarious.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

The CCP just really appreciate Hunter's art.

[antaeus]

Lmao >it’s America’s fault communist China and communist Russia are/were militaristic, expansionist hegemons. Source: Libertarian evidence.

Back on Earth, the perspective that US strength, not weakness, may convince China and Russia to pursue war before they fall further behind goes like this:

It's ironic... the risk of confrontation is increasing, not because of anything the US is doing - even though the US is doing a lot of needling at China - but it's because Xi has made Taiwan a success metric for his presidency - far more so than any previous Chinese leader. This might be because for the first time China's capabilities are allowing Xi the privilege of this position, but it is Xi's choice none the less.

Xi now has the power and prestige to choose how far the Chinese position on Taiwan goes. He could easily make it a symbolic point, like Spanish claims on Gibraltar or Moroccan claims on Ceuta and still be the most powerful president since Mao, and inch China closer towards global hegemonic challenger status. But he has deliberately made Taiwan the benchmark, that he will be held to.

[Lord Thesaurian]

It's ironic... the risk of confrontation is increasing, not because of anything the US is doing - even though the US is doing a lot of needling at China - but it's because Xi has made Taiwan a success metric for his presidency - far more so than any previous Chinese leader. This might be because for the first time China's capabilities are allowing Xi the privilege of this position, but it is Xi's choice none the less.

Xi now has the power and prestige to choose how far the Chinese position on Taiwan goes. He could easily make it a symbolic point, like Spanish claims on Gibraltar or Moroccan claims on Ceuta and still be the most powerful president since Mao, and inch China closer towards global hegemonic challenger status. But he has deliberately made Taiwan the benchmark, that he will be held to.

I agree Taiwan will be his legacy, for dangerous reasons. I speculate that as the CCP is unable to deliver 8-10% growth year over year to trickle down going forward, the too big to fail real estate bubble most citizens put their life savings into starts to fail, and the central government becomes more repressive, nationalism is the primary means by which the Politburo will have to maintain enough of a support base to control the entire country - to say nothing of factional power struggles. The Party might be able to deal with any one of these crises in isolation, but the way it has dealt with them so far (cover up, fail, panic, blame foreigners and political enemies, overreact for the sake of it) does not inspire confidence overall. Whatever form the war is taking, it’ll come down to incompetence relative to the enemy, as much as competence. Taipei has stated publicly within the last few months they believe Beijing is actively preparing for open war. If they can pull it off, the US and our allies will suddenly find ourselves talking about retaking islands, not just defending them.

[Basilius]

FWIW, Lord Thesaurian is on much stronger ground here. I'm having a hard time even following Ludicus arguments, which seems to be little more than an oft-repeated left-wing grand narrative about the international liberal order helmed by the US.

It's not rocket science to say that China and the US are both motivated by geopolitical aims: China breaking past the first island chain and the US maintaining South China Sea (and subsequently Pacific) naval hegemony. But there is the added moral element of Taiwan as a successful independent democracy, which makes the usual anti-US hegemonic arguments not only obtuse, but downright cruel.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Yeah, the purges that would occur on Taiwan if the CCP were to take over would be truly horrific.

[Heathen Hammer]

I also can't help but doubt that China does, in fact, have military capacity to invade Taiwan. America is a dying power, but she can still swing and not miss, at least when it comes to conventional warfare. Even without direct US involvement, invasion's of Taiwan would still be a tough nut to crack, given how Taiwan itself can reach mainland with its artillery and devastate mainland coastal towns, while on CCP end operation itself would require WW2 levels of preparation and resources, which I simply doubt CCP is capable of. Not to mention CCP's military's abysmal track record of never ever winning wars.
Having said that CCP has one pretty big trump card up its sleeve - its leverage over corrupt and even criminal dealings of Western leaders and their family members. We know that Biden's son visited China and did shady dealings with them. Then we have traitor-general Milley that actually blurred out about his intentions to commit treason via sharing US military intelligence with CCP. Not to mention that a lot of "woke" and "democratic socialist" groups among Democrats and far-left are funded by CCP and would likely start riots in the event of American intervention on behalf of Taiwan.
Then we have other foreign leaders like Justin Trudeau and Scott Morrison that are also undoubtedly CCP assets with questionable loyalty to their own nations.
So in the end, CCP will try to invade Taiwan, but its path to success lies not with just hard power, but simply by exploiting corruption and degeneracy of Western ruling classes and the far-left/neoliberal treasonous elements.

[conon394]

err @ Ludicus

Philippines Orders U.S. to Leave Strategic Navy Base at Subic

Umm you do realize a story from 1991 is over 20 years old?

This link might better capture the state of play...

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/06/10252...ement-analysis