German Parliamentary Elections for 2021

[Abdülmecid I]

Well the German elections just happened and CDU lost its dominance after more than 15 years. On the other hand, SPD came back in the first place for the first time in the last two decades. It holds the relative majority in the Bundestag, but a coalition is inevitable. Besides CDU's decline, AfD also declined and the power of Die Linke collapsed. On the other hand, those of FDP slightly improved and the Greens almost doubled their numbers. This points towards a ''street lights'' or ''Jamaica'' alliance (SPD/CDU, Greens, FDP), since Die Linke is too minor to be taken into consideration. This doesn't portray CDU in very bright colours, but it will at least not taint Merkel's reputation, who essentially retired from politics after 16 years of successful chancellorship.



I think the results reflect more the frustration of the Germans with CDU's way too long rule than a genuine resurrection of SPD. Germans simply grew tired of the Christian-Democratic government, whose popularity also suffered from the handling of the flood crisis in the west. The polarisation benefited SPD and undermined Die Linke, whose supporters voted for the center-left party, in order to finally get rid of the conservative administration. The Greens obviously absorbed a large portion of the CDU former voters, but I believe that AfD and FDP are also major losers in the elections. The situation was ideal for them, as the principal party in their political spectrum was losing influence and yet they barely profited from it. The decrease of AfD's popularity is rather embarrassing, considering how deeply the far-right has exploited the refugee and pandemic crises, but it is probably explained by the reduced importance of these issues in the public discourse. Coronavirus has been overtaken by climate change and immigration is nowadays as big of a concern as pensions and inequality.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I had vote for SPD, but the decrease of Die Linke is partial explained by the move of the SPD back to interests of workers:

just wages ( higher ones), stable rents, just pensions.

The Union on the other hand is too much a lobby party for big firms, at least in the public opinion.

And i have more confidence, that an SPD government will more do against the clima change.

[Muizer]

I don't think the loss of the CDU is surprising. This is not the first time a large party crashes after its long term leader abdicates. You can bet over the past few elections a lot of people voted for Merkel out of "better the devil you know" considerations.

[Derc]

... but it will at least not taint Merkel's reputation, who essentially retired from politics after 16 years of successful chancellorship.

Thanks. I had a good laugh.

And i have more confidence, that an SPD government will more do against the clima change.

Yay to more tax and more energy imports from nuclear France + fossil Russia!

You can bet over the past few elections a lot of people voted for Merkel out of "better the devil you know" considerations.

Yeah, she was a known factor, and that alone was enough for many Germans to vote for her.

[Prodromos]

None of the parties particularly appeal to me, but the FDP seems like the least bad option.

[Heathen Hammer]

It looks like AFD will double in the next election cycle once SPD spends a few years doing its globalist leftist lunatic thing. Germans better prepare for more "peaceful refugees", state authoritarianism, higher taxes and "let them eat cake" attitudes towards the working class.

[Gyrosmeister]

SPD didn't win because it had a super party programme or whatever, they won because of Baerbocks and Laschets scandals regarding plagiarism or laughing like a complete idiot after the floods in Western Germany. I don't expect radical changes from Merkel's politics, given how Merkel based a lot of her politics on Schröder (SPD) herself. What I fear with SPD-Greens in government are more "CO2-Taxes" on fuel etc that only punish the middle and lower classes.

[Heathen Hammer]

Pretty much. German workers are going to see their purchasing power be reduced even further. Minimal wage rise is probably going to make things even worse, as prices will inevitably go up, and Germans will be able to afford even less.

[BundesReich]

Please, can someone explain to me how black colour equals Conservatives and blue colour equals fascists (AfD)? The Jews of Germany are as perplexed as Maimonides trying to comprehend such mystery of the gentiles. Although the most reverend chief rabbi is now a "greenie".

[Heathen Hammer]

AfD is the least fascist party on the roster, since they are the only ones AFAIK that oppose the absence of freedom of speech in Germany.

[athanaric]

Please, can someone explain to me how black colour equals Conservatives and blue colour equals fascists (AfD)? The Jews of Germany are as perplexed as Maimonides trying to comprehend such mystery of the gentiles. Although the most reverend chief rabbi is now a "greenie".

Not sure what your point is here. None of the parties listed in the OP are fascist, although most of them (except perhaps for the FDP) have authoritarian tendencies. Black is the traditional colour for the CDU, probably has to do with Catholicism. Blue is a common colour for conservative parties around the world, the US being a notable exception.

[Ludicus]

I think the results reflect more the frustration of the Germans with CDU's way too long rule than a genuine resurrection of SPD.

An excellent analysis, but I'm not quite sure about that. Of course I'm biased toward the SPD.
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The Greens and the FPD are the kingmakers, so let's wait and see. Meanwhile in a non-binding referendum, Berliners vote yes on property expropriation

Berliners have spoken and what they have to say is clear: they want city authorities to pass a law which would allow for the expropriation of what they call "private" real estate companies, specifically those that own more than 3,000 housing units. The campaigners say the companies would be compensated at a rate "well below market value."
...what is clear is that the more than one million yes votes is not the final say

Scholz is sympathetic to pursuing further banking / capital market integration in Europe.In fact, Europe needs to make more progress on European banking union.
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The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), the "family" of the SPD in the European Parliament, has already congratulated Olaf Scholz: "Congratulations on a strong and successful campaign for respect and solidarity".
Today, October 3, Day of Germany Unity, the Party of Europeans Socialists rejoices,

Happy Unity Day, Germany!
31 years ago Germany put an end to the East-West division, as the country reunited.Today, we remember the words of historic SPD Chancellor Willy Brandt: "Now we are in a situation where what belongs together, will grow back together".
Good luck to Olaf Scholz and the SPD in Sunday’s election. They will move Germany forward: support for families, affordable housing, stable pensions, fair wages for everyone, a modern climate-neutral economy, and a strong progressive voice in Europe

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What's going to happen? no one knows. But the picture says all.





A few days ago,I heard Annalena Baerbock say in an interview that the Greens have a greater political affinity with the SPD. But everything will depend on the negotiations between the two kingmakers.The Greens (that tend end to favor a strong state and more spending, focusing on the fight against xenophobia and racism, and on gender justice) and Christian Lindner and his free-market loving socially liberal Free Democratic party.

Qui sera, sera.