When Will China Rule the World? Maybe Never

[Coughdrop addict]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...y-never-happen

Start with the workforce. The math is straightforward—more workers means more growth, and fewer workers means less. Here lies China’s first challenge. Low fertility—the legacy of the one-child policy—means that China’s working-age population has already peaked. If fertility stays low, it’s projected to shrink by more than 260 million over the coming three decades, a drop of 28%.
Aware of the risks, China has changed course. Controls on fertility have been relaxed. In 2016, the limit was raised to two children. This year, the government announced that three were allowed. Meanwhile, plans to increase the retirement age could keep older workers in their jobs for longer.
Even if reforms succeed, it will be hard for China to offset the impact of the demographic drag. And they might not succeed. Rules aren’t the only thing holding families back from having more children: there’s also the high cost of things like housing and education. “The reason I haven’t bought three Rolls Royces is not because the government wouldn’t let me,” wrote one netizen in response to the three-child news.

Not mentioned is the huge gender disparity in China. With so many girls aborted (or drowned after birth) China has a shortage of women, one of the reasons for the Chinese policy of kidnapping Uyghur women to be sold into "marriage" (actually sexual slavery).

The outlook for capital spending isn’t quite so bleak—no-one expects the number of railroads, factory robots or 5G towers to shrink. But after years of breakneck growth in investment, there are plenty of signs that it now brings diminishing returns. Overcapacity in industry, ghost towns of empty buildings, and six-lane highways snaking into sparsely populated farmland all illustrate the problem.

If China is paying for useless projects just to keep people employed they're in real trouble. The last time anything like that happened in the US was the great depression.

Will China be able to deliver on the promise—boosting growth not with more workers and never-ending investment, but with smarter workers and more advanced technology? Unfortunately for Beijing—and in contrast to the elaborately choreographed celebrations for the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party—not all the determinants of future growth are under their control.
Global ties are starting to fray. A recent Pew survey found 76% of Americans had an unfavorable opinion of China—a record high. They aren’t alone. The blame game over the origins of Covid, mounting concern about human rights in Xinjiang, and Hong Kong’s draconian National Security Law have all helped to darken the global view of China’s rise.
If ties with the U.S. and its allies continue to fray, the cross-border flow of ideas and innovations that has done so much to accelerate China’s rise will start to dry up. Beijing is already getting a sneak peak at what that might look like. Europe is backing away from a major investment agreement, and India closing the door to Chinese technology.

I think this is particularly important. People tend to underestimate how crucial your reputation is in business. The days where you could act however you please and then hide it from your partners and customers are over. The United States took a huge hit to credibility under Trump, and while that alone wasn't responsible for the economic chaos of the last few years, with Covid and the resulting lockdowns, it certainly didn't help matters.

If China wants to be a bully, head into business with an attitude of "I'm going to push you around because I can.", then it shouldn't be surprised when others avoid dealing with it.

A combination of stalling domestic reforms and international isolation could bring another extreme scenario into play: financial crisis.
Since 2008, China’s credit-to-GDP ratio has rocketed from 140% to 290%—with the Covid stimulus contributing the latest leg up. In other countries, such a rapid increase in borrowing has heralded trouble ahead.
Drawing on Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s study of financial crises, Bloomberg Economics estimates that a Lehman-style meltdown could push China into a deep recession followed by a lost decade of close to zero growth.

If such a scenario comes to pass, the most likely reaction by Xi and the party will be an attempt to hide the truth and pretend there isn't a problem. This would of course involve creating even more barriers between China and the outside world to prevent the flow of information about what is really happening, a measure that while preserving his power will likely lead to even further economic pain. This could create a downward spiral where as things get worse the government becomes ever more despotic and secretive, eventually falling back to dependence on forced labor.

[Exarch]

Fallacious thread; asking when will China rule the world is a fallacy since it assumes the goals of the CPC are to rule the world in the same manner that the white supremacist Five Eyes rule the world.

It's clear from the evidence that whilst China has the capacity and capability to 'rule the world' much more comprehensively than the anglosphere Five Eyes, it does not possess the desire to do so.

But let's entertain this prospect, exactly what are the parameters that you define as 'ruling the world'?

[nhytgbvfeco2]

I certainly hope the PRC will never rule the world, it is one of the most reprehensible regimes in the history of humanity, in a very close competition with the Nazis and the Soviets under Stalin. Whereas in its early days one could attempt to argue that it wasn't evil but merely extremely incompetent, there can be little doubt nowadays that it is just that: Evil.

[Exarch]

Well i must say after the meeting at Anchorage where China made the US Secretary of State cry, that USG propaganda and anglo mouthpieces have been going hell for leather on pumping up the China Threat.

[Coughdrop addict]

I certainly hope the PRC will never rule the world, it is one of the most reprehensible regimes in the history of humanity, in a very close competition with the Nazis and the Soviets under Stalin. Whereas in its early days one could attempt to argue that it wasn't evil but merely extremely incompetent, there can be little doubt nowadays that it is just that: Evil.

Which illustrates my point. China is, to put it mildly, unpopular

The century of humiliation, Japanese conquest and atrocities, and the self-inflicted wounds of the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution have left China's national psyche with a deep-rooted inferiority complex. They attempt to compensate by at all times projecting a mask of ultra-confidence, which unfortunately falls apart at the slightest setback or criticism, leading to them lashing out at others to transfer their feelings of failure, and blaming others for things for which they should take responsibility. This attitude wins them no friends, and those who must deal with China do so reluctantly as they know they will have to put up with China's neurotic, validation-seeking behaviors.

The result of all of this is that China's only real ally is North Korea, and it doesn't look like there will be a Chinese NATO or Warsaw Pact anytime soon..

[Exarch]

Which illustrates my point. China is, to put it mildly, unpopular
.

Another fallacious point.
Being unpopular doesn't prevent China from using its power or inflicting costs on its would be adversaries; case eg Vietnam whose ppl fear and hate China and yet Vietnam's leaders will always kowtow and bow and scrape at China's bidding.
That's power.

Compare that to the US and its ally, Israel where the US gives everything to Israel and doesn't get squat; remember Jonathon Pollard? Convicted for spying for israel and after his release, he was given residency and citations and honours by the israeli government. btw the Intel that Pollard gave Israel also made its way to the soviets who then killed American agents using that info. Allies are as much liabilities as they are assets.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Over the long term, US/China competition will come down to management and luck, as each has its distinct advantages as well as potentially crippling crises. Based on that premise, I believe the trajectory of the contest may be decided sooner than later during the next few decades. The SCS and Taiwan especially present credible dangers for rapid escalation and miscalculation within the next 5-10 years.

In the event of war, the US may not be able to reinforce Taiwan or other bases before a surprise PLA assault overwhelms them. Neither side can afford to appear defeated. Both would consider a decisive victory a matter of political legitimacy, China moreso than the US, of course. But this also makes the threat of a Chinese attack even more dangerous. Beijing can’t afford to lose face, especially not in the case of Taiwan. The US would face the risk of Pacific allies questioning the value of partnership with America, if the latter fails to defend the island, or any other ally with which the PLA might clash in the near future, not to mention the global image of American power.

In this environment, it is impossible to accurately predict when China might attempt a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Given the complexities involved, even Xi may not have a definitive timeline. However, the existence of a significant military imbalance between China and Taiwan – with the far more powerful side intent on bringing the other under political domination – increases the possibility and temptation for war.

What is certain is that the Communist Party is already taking action against Taiwan. For years, it has carried out deliberate and incremental military provocations below the threshold of armed conflict, with the objective of compressing the space in which Taiwan’s military can operate while intimidating its people. These operations have created significant challenges for Taiwanese leaders, who must carefully calibrate their responses according to the level of ambiguity and varying severity.

The threat of Chinese military aggression is no longer hypothetical; gray zone operations have already begun. Should the Communist Party’s aggression continue to escalate, an all-out attack on Taiwan could become likely, with economic and military consequences that would shake the world. The question is not whether the United States should defend Taiwan during war but how to prevent war in the first place. Now is the time to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan security cooperation to ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinio...-s-ncna1273386

[Exarch]

In the event of war, the US may not be able to reinforce Taiwan or other bases before a surprise PLA assault overwhelms them. Neither side can afford to appear defeated. Both would consider a decisive victory a matter of political legitimacy, China moreso than the US, of course. But this also makes the threat of a Chinese attack even more dangerous. Beijing can’t afford to lose face, especially not in the case of Taiwan. .

Projection much?
Rather, it's the Anglo American United States which can't afford to lose face in a defeat; China is already viewed as inferior by the americans so it loses nothing with a defeat whereas the anglo americans getting owned for a third time by an asian power is bound to be debilitating for American morale. This is the reason the USG wants to use tactical nukes because they know the image of a destroyed and sinking aircraft carrier spells doom for anglo American power worldwide and yet doing so results in nuclear MAD.

Fact is, anglo america has been pushing for war since Obama's pivot to asia because they know every year China gets stronger and stronger and the US gets weaker and weaker, especially since Anglo America desperately needs a war now whilst civil revolt threatens to bring down the USG.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Taiwan presents challenges and opportunities to the legitimacy of the CCP on the mainland, and war would highlight the potentially existential importance of the issue for Beijing.

This essay attempts to argue that the main audience of Beijing’s Taiwan policy is neither Taiwan nor the international community, but the people in the mainland instead. In this essay, I find that the major purpose of Beijing in standing firmly against the Taiwan independence movement is to legitimise the one-party rule of CCP over the mainland China instead of unification. The first part will provide a brief background on different sources of legitimacy employed by authoritarian regimes. Next, the background of nationalism in the history of modern China will be discussed. Third, the role of how nationalism affects Beijing’s attitude in its territorial disputes with its neighbouring countries will be analyzed. Finally, the means by which the CCP creates a nationalist image by standing firmly against the Taiwan authority will be examined.

http://yris.yira.org/essays/3613

[Exarch]

Taiwan presents challenges and opportunities to the legitimacy of the CCP on the mainland, and war would highlight the potentially existential importance of the issue for Beijing.

and yet neither the United States nor its allies are suicidal or committed enough to fight for taiwan- even the wing nuts of the turmp admin. were reined in by the more sober Pentagon who are themselves going to be the ones doing the fighting and dying. From their own projections, they'll be doing a lot of the dying as well.

Let me show you why the anglo american fears China:



DF-41D, the most advanced ICBM in existence with the furthest reach of any ICBM in existence. No white American is willing to trade taiwan for New York.

[conon394]

Let me show you why the anglo american fears China:

Not mustering much fear. More like a sigh. As in great now we can have increased the probability of accidents, misunderstands and escalation can lead to nuclear war but its now a 3 player game.

[Exarch]

Not mustering much fear. More like a sigh. As in great now we can have increased the probability of accidents, misunderstands and escalation can lead to nuclear war but its now a 3 player game.

Indeed and we have the Trump and Biden admin for tearing up non proliferation treaties and failing to sign and ratify new treaties to replace the ones they tore up in the first place. If the world's a lot more dangerous now, it's not because of China nor Russia.

What the Anglo American gets with China isn't just a bigger Japan, it's basically ancient Rome with modern weapons and the technological industriousness of germany (there, i had to apply eurocentric analogies to convey that point)

China overtakes Germany in mechanical engineering Germany is no longer the world's most important mechanical engineering exporter. The title for most of the machines and systems delivered in 2020 went to China. The corona pandemic also plays a major role in the rise.

Read more / Daha Fazla okumak için: https://ieconomy.io/china-overtakes-...l-engineering/

In fact, China's MIC2025 is inspired by Germany's Industry 4.0 and which the anglo Americans are now trying to copy and emulate:

[conon394]

Indeed and we have the Trump and Biden admin for tearing up non proliferation treaties and failing to sign and ratify new treaties to replace the ones they tore up in the first place. If the world's a lot more dangerous now, it's not because of China nor Russia.

Russia was effectively violating the IMF treaty and since China wanted no part of it was a doomed treaty of a different era. Open sky treaty was fool move by Trump. Otherwise not sure treaty you think Biden tore up?

Read more / Daha Fazla okumak için: https://ieconomy.io/china-overtakes-...l-engineering/

Do you only just scan headlines? Since you link says Germany will bounce back be careful what wish for since the implications of later bits about China being a strong market for German robots is not good news if want people to make more than 2.30 a day.

Also really wee my nation of what 1.4 billion just managed to pass the a export category of a nation of 83 million. You know I think there is productivity issue at play in that and its not pro China. But hey whatever floats your boat.

[Abdülmecid I]

Forecasting the doom of China has become quite fashionable since the '90s. I'm not saying that China's hegemony in the future is inevitable, but there's a lot of confirmation bias in these reports, the absolute majority of which come from the United States and sometimes prioritise the pleasure of their readership, at the expense of sober examination of hard data. Political science is, together with psychology, one of the most fluid domains of the humanities and there are quite a few instances of history, statistics and finance getting abused by the authors of these reports. Goldstone had been certain for the upcoming demographic catastrophe of China, but what suffered most was his reputation as a scholar. My favourite is Gordon Chang, who was convinced that China will collapse in 2006. Then he revised his hypothesis and opted for 2011. Then 2012 would be the year of the (Mayan) Apocalypse. Or maybe 2016. Definitely 2017!

As for diplomacy, China has plenty of allies and they increase, respective to her economic power. The aforementioned analysts usually portray it as international blackmail, but it's a much more reciprocal procedure. The investment and loans are beneficial to both sides. Not everything is rosy, of course, but, despite any sporadic issues, the trend clearly shows the economic expansion of China, especially in her immediate periphery, which then results to international cooperation. It's not a pioneering tactic either. The United States themselves heavily relied on the same strategy during the late 19th century and the Cold War, especially when the United Kingdom was essentially too bankrupt to maintain its sphere of influence. Wealth is what determined the allegiance of Egypt, not the public image of the Soviets. That expansion was of course marked by basically the same problems, like predatory practices, collaboration with shady regimes, implicit or more direct interventions etc., but the overall result was successful.

That being said, economy is one side of the coin. Philippines reconsidered their policy towards China, because the US under the Obama administration were too weak to guarantee their safety, Cambodia also cooperates with China, becauseo of Vietnam's aggression and Chinese investments and East Timor seeks an alliance with the Chinese, in order to protect itself from Australia's attemts to rob it from its natural wealth, while there's also distrust against America, because she had greenlighted Indonesia's conquest and annexation of the old, Portuguese colony, leading into the genocide of hundreds of thousands of civilians. These are just a few random examples, with the exception of the strongest countries, like Japan or India, whose interests still clash with those of China, most of the countries in the eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans have established friendly relations with Beijing. If Chinese strength continues to increase and that of the US to (relatively) decline, then even the stronger players may reconsider their priorities and decide that cooperating with China will be more beneficial than antagonising it.

[Exarch]

Forecasting the doom of China has become quite fashionable since the '90s. I'm not saying that China's hegemony in the future is inevitable, but there's a lot of confirmation bias in these reports, the absolute majority of which come from the United States and sometimes prioritise the pleasure of their readership, at the expense of sober examination of hard data. Political science is, together with psychology, one of the most fluid domains of the humanities and there are quite a few instances of history, statistics and finance getting abused by the authors of these reports. Goldstone had been certain for the upcoming demographic catastrophe of China, but what suffered most was his reputation as a scholar. My favourite is Gordon Chang, who was convinced that China will collapse in 2006. Then he revised his hypothesis and opted for 2011. Then 2012 would be the year of the (Mayan) Apocalypse. Or maybe 2016. Definitely 2017!

As for diplomacy, China has plenty of allies and they increase, respective to her economic power. The aforementioned analysts usually portray it as international blackmail, but it's a much more reciprocal procedure. The investment and loans are beneficial to both sides. Not everything is rosy, of course, but, despite any sporadic issues, the trend clearly shows the economic expansion of China, especially in her immediate periphery, which then results to international cooperation. It's not a pioneering tactic either. The United States themselves heavily relied on the same strategy during the late 19th century and the Cold War, especially when the United Kingdom was essentially too bankrupt to maintain its sphere of influence. Wealth is what determined the allegiance of Egypt, not the public image of the Soviets. That expansion was of course marked by basically the same problems, like predatory practices, collaboration with shady regimes, implicit or more direct interventions etc., but the overall result was successful.

That being said, economy is one side of the coin. Philippines reconsidered their policy towards China, because the US under the Obama administration were too weak to guarantee their safety, Cambodia also cooperates with China, becauseo of Vietnam's aggression and Chinese investments and East Timor seeks an alliance with the Chinese, in order to protect itself from Australia's attemts to rob it from its natural wealth, while there's also distrust against America, because she had greenlighted Indonesia's conquest and annexation of the old, Portuguese colony, leading into the genocide of hundreds of thousands of civilians. These are just a few random examples, with the exception of the strongest countries, like Japan or India, whose interests still clash with those of China, most of the countries in the eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans have established friendly relations with Beijing. If Chinese strength continues to increase and that of the US to (relatively) decline, then even the stronger players may reconsider their priorities and decide that cooperating with China will be more beneficial than antagonising it.

Exactly this.

The reason the USG Elites are frantically hysterical in their dealings with China is because they assumed too much of their own racial superiority and promoted the likes of gordon chang. Someone telling the US elites the hard truth was never going to get into a position of power because USG elites were basically wish casting the fall of China ala the Soviet Union.

Effectively, US anglo elites have never moved on from the 90s- they are basically like the Qing of the 19th-20th C.
Or for a more relevant eg, it was like hitler and his team thinking they could steamroll the soviets based on racial superiority.

Russia was effectively violating the IMF treaty and since China wanted no part of it was a doomed treaty of a different era. Open sky treaty was fool move by Trump. Otherwise not sure treaty you think Biden tore up?

Actually Trump and his team were hoping that by tearing up the treaty, they could make Russia pressure China into joining a new NPT and when reality blew their theory apart, we're now left in a situation where both Russia and China have superior hypersonic missiles over the US and railgun tech that can tear apart US warships. Anglo America's equivalent of the Wehrmacht knows it can't win but they will loyally obey and try to do the equivalent of taking Stalingrad for the Fatherland.

Do you only just scan headlines? Since you link says Germany will bounce back be careful what wish for since the implications of later bits about China being a strong market for German robots is not good news if want people to make more than 2.30 a day.

Also really wee my nation of what 1.4 billion just managed to pass the a export category of a nation of 83 million. You know I think there is productivity issue at play in that and its not pro China. But hey whatever floats your boat.
[/FONT]

In my travels i find old europe to be most similar culturally to the Chinese, but that aside Germany won't be reclaiming that crown from China anytime soon but i'll give them props for holding out for as long as they have.

But back on topic, will China rule the world? Not like the white supremacist Anglo Five Eyes; what you will see is China being the strong silent type who does their own and doesn't bother you in your house the way the jesus freaks in the neighbourhood keep trying to convert everyone to their brand of anglo christianity.

What you will definitely see more of in the future are Chinese aircraft carrier fleets patrolling up and down north and south america and the Mediterranean.

[conon394]

Actually Trump and his team were hoping that by tearing up the treaty, they could make Russia pressure China into joining a new NPT and when reality blew their theory apart, we're now left in a situation where both Russia and China have superior hypersonic missiles over the US and railgun tech that can tear apart US warships. Anglo America's equivalent of the Wehrmacht knows it can't win but they will loyally obey and try to do the equivalent of taking Stalingrad for the Fatherland.

You do realize that is mostly nonsensical drivel.

In my travels i find old europe to be most similar culturally to the Chinese, but that aside Germany won't be reclaiming that crown from China anytime soon but i'll give them props for holding out for as long as they have.

Will shall see I believe if I dug the old super computer thread I could find such a claim as well


But you danced around comparative productivity.

What you will definitely see more of in the future are Chinese aircraft carrier fleets patrolling up and down north and south america and the Mediterranean.

You sure the people living on $2.30 a day who are suddenly not in poverty want to support a CV group in the Med?

[Exarch]

Will shall see I believe if I dug the old super computer thread I could find such a claim as well


But you danced around comparative productivity.

What's there to compare?
White anglo propaganda kept its ppl and leaders believing the trope that Chinese ppl couldn't innovate, until Huawei and Tiktok exploded onto the stage and white anglo oligarchs tried to steal both companies. Frankly, it was typical of the racist white supremacist world view to blithely assume that China would remain the world's low cost factory for long:

China’s New Innovation Advantage


China is achieving a new level of global competitiveness, thanks to its hyper-adaptive population.

Source: https://hbr.org/2021/05/chinas-new-innovation-advantage

By sheer volume, it was inevitable that China's 1.4bln potential unleashed thanks to the CPC was going to surpass not just Germany nor the US but the entire western world combined.

Looking into the future, Chinese is going to be the language of science much as english became in the 20th C. and attempts by the United States to turn unfurl an iron curtain across europe to maintain its grip on hegemony will turn out as well as it did for the soviets.

[conon394]

What's there to compare?
White anglo propaganda kept its ppl and leaders believing the trope that Chinese ppl couldn't innovate, until Huawei and Tiktok exploded onto the stage and white anglo oligarchs tried to steal both companies. Frankly, it was typical of the racist white supremacist world view to blithely assume that China would remain the world's low cost factory for long:

Still not addressing why China can just ever so much in a particular year beat Germany in the category you chose to mention.

https://hbr.org/2021/05/chinas-new-innovation-advantage

Pretty silly article. You now why I don't want to QR scan my payment on my phone its the same reason all my tap cards are in a secure wallet. Hey If the Chinese are cool with being hacked by government or criminals more power to them but I rather prefer to have somebody actually hold out a gun at me and take my sh-t

[Exarch]

Still not addressing why China can just ever so much in a particular year beat Germany in the category you chose to mention.



Pretty silly article. You now why I don't want to QR scan my payment on my phone its the same reason all my tap cards are in a secure wallet. Hey If the Chinese are cool with being hacked by government or criminals more power to them but I rather prefer to have somebody actually hold out a gun at me and take my sh-t

Look at you getting all finicky; who cares if China wins by xyz amount; China's winning the future and your anglo american leaders are inadequately preparing you for a Chinese future.

More innovation is coming out of China alone, than the entire West combined; just today i heard that TikTok surpassed Youtube in terms of views and eyeballs.

Individuals Now Spend More Time On TikTok Than YouTube, Facebook, Netflix

Source: https://www.tubefilter.com/2021/07/0...tube-facebook/

All of that data is gonna be hoovered up the the Ministry of State Security which will feed their AI models. No wonder the Zuck is furious, all of that ad revenue that won't be going to face berg.

EDIT: before some of you americans get all panicky and write to your Congressmen, China actually has stronger privacy laws compared to the US, looking at you Conon.

China now ahead of U.S. on privacy law

Source: https://www.politico.com/newsletters...acy-law-493497

[nhytgbvfeco2]

EDIT: before some of you americans get all panicky and write to your Congressmen, China actually has stronger privacy laws compared to the US, looking at you Conon.

Source: https://www.politico.com/newsletters...acy-law-493497

Oh off it is. You can't even search for "1989 tiananmen square massacre" without having government agents show up and help you become an organ donor. Big brother sees all.