US Forces In Full Scale Retreat From Afghanistan; 20 years of War Ending In Total Military Defeat?

[Coughdrop addict]

President Vladimir Putin in June offered U.S. counterpart Joe Biden the use of Russian military bases in Central Asia for information gathering from Afghanistan, the Kommersant newspaper reported on Saturday, as American troops leave the country.

Why not just let the FSB have free access to the pentagon?

No, the only reason Putin would offer that is he has the bases rigged up to steal military secrets. It would be less foolish to trust the goodwill and sincerity of Kim Jung Un. Cooperation with Russia, in any matter, is utterly out of the question as it can only lead to harm for the US. Biden shouldn't even have met with Putin.

[Cope]

The trouble here is that the Belt and Road Initiative will probably have to go through Afghanistan at some point, and they will need a secure stretch of the country where they can safely run trucks and trains without the danger of being attacked.

There is no obvious reason why Afghanistan couldn't be circumvented altogether; a route through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan would be more stable.

[dogukan]

I honestly believe that Afganistan should have simply been divided at its edges, part of it integrating to Tajikistan and part to Uzbekistan.

The geography is simply impossible to control from any one "center" with it's tough terrain. A divide and conquer without taking any one ethnic group's presence over certain areas.

I sort of like Biden's policy of telling Turkey to go in. Afghanistan had been a major blood loss for the Western alliance even though geographically it was more of a problem to potential American enemies like China, Russia, Iran and somewhat to Turkey (unless Turkey's İslamism merges with that of Taliban, then it is a bigger problem. The rest are natural enemies to Taliban and Afghan jihadism).
Back in early 2000s, West thought that they can rapidly defeat jihadism and absorb the Islamic world to prepare for eventual Russian-Chinese expansion (not to mention Taliban being a major safe haven for jihadism of course). That did not turn out to be the case and the war not only bled America, it became more a source of influence loss for USA.

I believe the authoritarian hand of China would be a much better hand at taming that geography, though I am afraid it could cause massive human rights violations. Regardless, from a strategic perspective, it makes a lot more sense to leave the Islamist menace to China to deal with when Afghanistan is so far out there. Focusing on core Middle East is something else.

Biden's decision to "bribe" Turkey to go into Afghanistan had been a good deal. It pressures Erdoğan's Islamist regime, makes sure Turkey is at odds with its potential "Eurasian" allies like China, Iran and Russia, and also puts the potential costs of destabilized Afghanistan on Russia-China.

Now the trick is to make sure the influence of Afghan jihadism does not penetrate the West.

[Vanoi]

Pakistan won't reject its only ally in the region over some insurgency that would probably off to Afghanistan anyways once Taliban finishes the takeover.

Except the Pakistan Taliban were formed in Pakistan to fight the Pakistan government. Their home is Pakistan, not Afghanistan. They're not going to off to Afghanistan. That's not their home.

I doubt that the CCP particularly cares about the Taliban or Afghanistan and vice versa. All parties seem largely content to ignore each other for the time being.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...lled-9-chinese

You speak too soon.

[EmperorBatman999]

There is no obvious reason why Afghanistan couldn't be circumvented altogether; a route through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan would be more stable.

It depends really on what the BRI's engineers think would be the best western gate out of China, and that could be the Wakhan Corridor. Either way, Afghanistan's instability has a tendency to emanate northwards into Central Asia, with Islamist radicals moving back and forth. Sooner or later, Afghanistan is going to become some kind of problem for China.

[Ukiah]

I read the book Black April last year... After withdrawing, the US stopped reinforcing South Vietnam. South Vietnam continued to defend well until North Vietnam took a critical South Vietnamese location called Ban Me Thuot. South Vietnam lost many soldiers in the process of trying to withdraw to regroup. This led to the collapse of South Vietnam's II Corps Tactical Zone in the Vietnamese Central Highlands. Saigon fell a month later. It seems that Afghanistan might become somewhat like this. Actually, it began more quickly. Many Afghan soldiers already fled to Tajikistan.

[Prodromos]

The slaughter of women and children in Afghanistan is ramping up

In the latest example, insurgents have now surrounded the southeastern city of Kandahar near the border with Pakistan and have begun executing residents who are accused of cooperating with the government in Kabul. They have set up checkpoints around the city, interrogating anyone seeking to flee the area and seek refuge across the border. The executions aren’t limited to men, however, The insurgents are killing women and children in numbers not seen since the United Nations began tracking casualties there more than a decade ago. And as the Associated Press reported last night, the pace of the slaughter is only increasing.

...

The forecast for the immediate future isn’t looking much better. In fact, things could take a turn for the significantly worse in short order. Most of the casualties thus far have been recorded in the more rural provinces and the areas surrounding the larger cities. But once the fighting moves into the populated sections of cities like Kandahar and Kabul, the death toll is expected to skyrocket.

The pattern of killing women and young girls is unfortunately giving us a preview of what we can expect from the Taliban once they fully retake control. Some of the girls and young women in Afghanistan have grown up and spent their entire lives only knowing a country where American and NATO forces were on hand to provide at least some measure of protection. Many have taken advantage of this fact to live at least a slightly more “westernized” life in terms of being able to go to school and dress a bit more casually.

That’s all changing very quickly. The Taliban are executing women who have learned to read and who fail to dress in the full, traditional garb of strict Islamic guidelines. Young girls who are not practicing Islam “properly” are disappearing on a regular basis. One local reporter was quoted as saying that the UN’s figures for the number of dead or wounded children may already be a significant undercount.

[Lord Thesaurian]

The slaughter of women and children in Afghanistan is ramping up

But hey, at least we were able to relocate 2,500 troops. #winning

[Heathen Hammer]

Except the Pakistan Taliban were formed in Pakistan to fight the Pakistan government. Their home is Pakistan, not Afghanistan. They're not going to off to Afghanistan. That's not their home.

And? Both China and Taliban are obviously cooperating.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...lled-9-chinese

You speak too soon.

Israelis attacked a US navy ship and spied against US, while Saudis killed thousands of Americans and Americans still treat them like 51st and 52nd states correspondingly.

[Vanoi]

But hey, at least we were able to relocate 2,500 troops. #winning

You forgot to mention violence in Afghanistan was increasing long before this current withdraw.

But hey let's just send more troops over there until the Afghans get it right. It's only been twenty years. We wouldn't have to stay much longer would we?

And? Both China and Taliban are obviously cooperating.

China is not cooperating with the TTP.

Israelis attacked a US navy ship and spied against US, while Saudis killed thousands of Americans and Americans still treat them like 51st and 52nd states correspondingly.

The Taliban is neither Israel or Saudi Arabia nor does it mean China will suddenly forgive the Taliban. In fact China has made it very clear the Pakistani Taliban are a terror group.

So how they gonna make that deal again?

[Lord Thesaurian]

You forgot to mention violence in Afghanistan was increasing long before this current withdraw.

But hey let's just send more troops over there until the Afghans get it right. It's only been twenty years. We wouldn't have to stay much longer would we?

The surrender to the Taliban was ratified Feb 29 last year, with the rapid reduction in troops beginning soon after and continuing through this year. From the article:

More women and children were killed and wounded in Afghanistan in the first half of 2021 than in the first six months of any year since the United Nations began systematically keeping count in 2009, a U.N. report said Monday.

The war-torn country saw a 47% increase in the number of all civilians killed and wounded in violence across Afghanistan in the first six months of the year, compared to the same period last year, according to the report.

You can knock over all the strawmen you want. NATO withdrawal has been an unforced disaster for the region. Period. Oh, and we’re still keeping hundreds of troops there indefinitely to guard the embassy, etc. Task failed successfully.

[Vanoi]

The surrender to the Taliban was ratified Feb 29 last year, with the rapid reduction in troops beginning soon after and continuing through this year. From the article:

You can knock over all the strawmen you want. NATO withdrawal has been an unforced disaster for the region. Period. Oh, and we’re still keeping hundreds of troops there indefinitely to guard the embassy, etc. Task failed successfully.

You can ignore the facts all you want. Violence in Afghanistan was increasing long before this withdraw even with US troops in the country.

This is the failure of a country who tried nation building for 20 years. Vietnam should have been a lesson.

[Lord Thesaurian]

You can ignore the facts all you want. Violence in Afghanistan was increasing long before this withdraw even with US troops in the country.

The post-surrender drawdown began after Feb 29, 2020 and before the documented huge spike this year compared to last. If you want to argue NATO presence made no difference, you’ll have to explain the change with something besides contrarian rhetoric and strawmen.

This is the failure of a country who tried nation building for 20 years. Vietnam should have been a lesson.

^Case in point. You’ve done nothing but project your rejection of the facts and used these boilerplate coping mechanisms to cover your retreat each time you’ve tried to argue this issue here.

[Vanoi]

The withdrawal began after Feb 29, 2020 and before the documented huge spike this year compared to last. If you want to argue NATO presence made no difference, you’ll have to explain the change with something besides contrarian rhetoric and strawmen.

https://www.statista.com/chart/25399...f-of-the-year/

As you can see violence in Afghanistan surged in 2017 to 2019 before peace talks and ceasefires.

https://apnews.com/article/fd2ec2085...0a3b03c6de9478

US troop levels was also higher in 2017 and yet casualties were worse than they are now. You're acting like US troops were the only thing holding the violence back when peace talks and ceasefires did the actual job.

And don't talk to me about rejecting facts. You've ignored the cost of this entire war everytime I bring it up and try to deflect by stating there's only a small number of troops in country. Pot calling the kettle black.

[Heathen Hammer]

China is not cooperating with the TTP.

That's largerly irrelevant, as you yourself admitted that it doesn't reflect on Afghanistan's Taliban.

The Taliban is neither Israel or Saudi Arabia nor does it mean China will suddenly forgive the Taliban. In fact China has made it very clear the Pakistani Taliban are a terror group.

So how they gonna make that deal again?

China has already welcomed Taliban representative as pretty much the official government of Afghanistan. You are a little bit too late there, my dude.

[Vanoi]

That's largerly irrelevant, as you yourself admitted that it doesn't reflect on Afghanistan's Taliban.

Never once said that and the TTP also operate in Afghanistan.

China has already welcomed Taliban representative as pretty much the official government of Afghanistan. You are a little bit too late there, my dude.

Too late? So this is going to stop the Pakistani Taliban from attacking Chinese nationalists? Oh wait.......

[Lord Thesaurian]

https://www.statista.com/chart/25399/afghanistan-civilian-casualties-in-first-half-of-the-year/

As you can see violence in Afghanistan surged in 2017 to 2019 before peace talks and ceasefires.

https://apnews.com/article/fd2ec2085...0a3b03c6de9478

US troop levels was also higher in 2017 and yet casualties were worse than they are now. Your acting like US troops were the only thing holding the violence back when peace talks and ceasefires did the actual job.

I’m not “acting like” anything. I responded to an article about how the highest casualties of women and children ever this year are a result of and preview of what to expect after NATO fully withdraws and people are relatively unprotected. That’s a fact. If you want to claim the ceasefires and peace talks brought casualties down in any sustainable way, feel free to back that up with an explanation as to how they are now higher than ever as the result of those peace talks comes to fruition. With hundreds of troops in country for the foreseeable future (which the Taliban will probably use as pretext for any and all violence anyway), all we’ve got is more dead Afghans. For nothing.

[Heathen Hammer]

Never once said that and the TTP also operate in Afghanistan.


Too late? So this is going to stop the Pakistani Taliban from attacking Chinese nationalists? Oh wait.......

So what is your point? China is friendly with Taliban. Also I think you just confused Pakistan and Afghanistan. FYI those are two different countries.

[Vanoi]

I’m not “acting like” anything. I responded to an article about how the highest casualties of women and children ever this year are a result of and preview of what to expect after NATO fully withdraws and people are relatively unprotected.

You painted this entire situation to be the fault of US troops withdrawing when in reality violence was worse in Afghanistan in 2017 and 2018 when there were thousands of more US troops in the country.

The fact is the presence of US soldiers has not deterred violence as you claimed.

That’s a fact. If you want to claim the ceasefires and peace talks brought casualties down in any sustainable way, feel free to back that up with an explanation as to how they are now higher than ever as the result of those peace talks comes to fruition.

That's simple. Peace talks dragged on and have led to no where. Taliban have seen this and simply started attacks again. We are going back to violence levels seen in 2017 and 2018 when the Taliban resurged and before peace talks began.

So what is your point? China is friendly with Taliban. Also I think you just confused Pakistan and Afghanistan. FYI those are two different countries.

I think you're confused. The Taliban is not one single group. China is talking to Afghan Taliban. Not the Pakistani Taliban. Separate groups with sperate leaders and separate goals.

Afghanistan and Pakistan border each other. The Pakistani Taliban operate in both countries. Making a deal with the Afghan Taliban does not mean to the Pakistani Taliban.

[Vanoi]

delete