The new role of Russia in the world: what is it?
This is meant to be a general thread on Russia, trying to guess the policy of the nation based on current indicators.
Pieces up for discussion in regards to the economy:
OECD raises Russia's rating to third risk group
Russia may become world's top oil producer
Kremlin launches program to decrease population loss (apparently resulting in a gradual increase in the number of births and marriages and a decrease in the number of deaths and divorces, I can't find the exact statistics, but I remember 5-10% improvements on all accounts in the past year)
Russia's economy growing at amazing rate
Now for foreign policy:
Russia's control of energy resources may damage it in the future
Russia insists the sale of missiles to Iran is legitimate
Russia, West divided on Kosovo plan
Russia's reaction on Estonia memorial plan
Putin insists on APEC 2012 being held in Russia
Some common themes:
1) Russia was a neo liberal failure throughout the 90s and wracked with instability, but has shown nothing less than amazing growth rates into the 2000s, prompting it to be included in the list of world powers again
2) Putin, who had a stabilizing effect on the country, is seen as a good leader by many after the succesful campaign in Chechnya and his growing resistance to the west
3) The communist party, being close to coming to power all throughout the 90s, had been reduced to a shadow of it's former self, but unfortunately no coherent leftist movement exists. Putin's centre-right movement is the only organized one at the moment. The alternatives are the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (led by Zhirinovski, a man who has made a career out of selling votes tot the government and can be trusted that his party pulls in the votes of the religious zealots, anarchists, nazis and many other extremists), the New Russia movement led by former chess star Gari Kasparov (with no chances of being elected, as it has no coherent political program), the Motherland Coalition, a bloc created by the Kremlin to pull in votes from the moderate left, Yabloko, the neo liberals, and Union of Right Forces, also neo liberal, and some minor parties.
So out of the six major parties, one is the Kremlin's, one is sold to the Kremlin, one was created by the Kremlin, two are neo liberals with no chance of being elected, and the last is the communists, who cater to a generation that is rapidly dying out. The fact that Putin's party encompasses such vast stretches of ideology (being centrist with elements of the communists, far right, and neo liberals) leaves no doubt that it will be reelected come 2008, albeit with a different man heading it. While I suppose the semi neo liberal rule is what led to such growth in industry, commerce and the economy in general, I can't help but wish for a social-democratic party to oppose them. The communists, despite labeling themselves precisely social-democrats are out of the question because they seem to have gone insane (for instance, trying to prove that Yeltsin is a jew to stop him from being reelected in 1996, insane because they would've probably had more luck proving he was Chinese, given his slanty eyes and otherwise completely non Jewish features).
4) There is quite a lot of popular discontent, and there are sufficient outlets for it to be expressed, including the media and limited rights to hold protests (like with the anti globalists back when the G8 meeting was in Russia: they were allowed to protest, but moved to a different island in St. Petersburg).
5) Foreign policy borders between the careful and overly aggressive at times. Russia has tried to fully accommodate the US for a short time following 9/11, but receiving nothing in return cut that policy short. As far as banning the products of various ex Soviet states and raising tariffs, it is simply normalization. While everyone knows that Georgians' prices will be raised, no one cares that they are currently paying far below the market price and in return give nothing to Russia but hordes of illegal immigrants
6) The US has bigger problems than Russia at the moment, and the EU seems unwilling to take any action that might be construed as offensive against anybody, especially a major supplier of oil and gas
7) Chinese-Russian relations are tense as both are nationalistic, have common history (in terms of war) and have claims to the same area (Central Asia), they are however commercially viable and as such kept up.
8) Russian-Indian relations are far better as neither country sees the other as a thread and both see many lucrative opportunities in helping the other develop.
9) Eastern and central Europe still can't get over the whole period of 1939-1991 in regards to Russia. Especially true of Poland, the Baltic States, Romania and Finnland. Bulgaria is the only one explicitly friendly to Russia.
10) The Yugoslavian intervention in the 90s is seen by the nationalists to be far too small and a betrayal of the Serbs, hence the tough stance on Kosovo today in an attempt to make up for it.
11) World War II is still sacred, and being a veteran of it is the height of honor. No really, you have no idea how important the war is to the Russian nation, as it is considered the country's greatest accomplishment.
So, create theories on how the future will go, propose things to change, and ask any questions you wish. I by no means speak for all Russians (especially the rural folks), which means I will be far less nationalistic and more rational than most.
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Originally Posted by RusskiSoldat
