President Biden's first term in office

[PointOfViewGun]

Now, the other shoe: Yes, this drooooooooooooooop in 2020-2021 pretty much shows he destroyed domestic oil production. Dude, it is your figure, you should be able to read it better. It drop from 13 MBpD to 10-11 MBpD with some spikes as low as 9.5 MBpD. Then, USA realized oil is not that bad and start pumping again, albeit as much lower increase rates. It went from 10 to 13 MBpD in 2 years and it is projected to go back from 10 to 13 by 2024 (in 4 years).
You may be pro-oil or anti-oil. But yes, your figure shows he destroyed domestic oil production. Perhaps that's cause for celebration or cause for alarm. But it is what he did.

That drop corresponds with the pandemic caused drop in demand. You might want to take a stop and realize that the drop happens within 2020 which is when Trump was still the president. Would you like to rewind and try again?

Let me translate for you Ponti's answer:
Yes, how miserable the population is, according to Ponti, is centered around those two indices. He then points out his reasoning for why those two indices are so important for quality of life.
I think that Pontifex doesn't think those are the ONLY two things but two very important ones.

What was his explanation exactly?

Now that was settled, my opinion:
- think those two indices are important, but they are not the ONLY thing that's important.
- They are certainly not the sole thing that you can base a President's performance on although they are important indicators
- Purchasing Parity per Capita is influenced by those two things but it is not tied to just those.
- How happy people are is also strongly influenced by crime, national pride and access to affordable medicare +++
- You shouldn't simply add inflation and unemployment, and here's why. Misery index 7 can be 4% unemployment and 3% inflation which is absolutely healthy. It can also be 8% unemployment and -1% inflation which means you're in a recession.

All in all, those two indices are important but certainly not enough.

So, you agree with me but you don't want to say it. OK.

[Lord Thesaurian]

So things would be just as bad if Trump was President, even though we've been redlining since the moment Biden took office? Please explain. Explain how Biden's policies, which are almost the complete opposite of Trump's policies, would have led to the same result? Was destroying the domestic oil production integral in ensuring American success?

Nothing bad is Biden’s fault and everything good is thanks to him. Politics as usual lol. The copium will only get stronger:

The U.S. economy falling into recession within the next 12 months is a virtual certainty, according to the latest Bloomberg Economics forecast model released on Monday.

The dire projection surfaced just weeks before national midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Just a week ago, President Joe Biden said a recession in the U.S. was unlikely and said any such downturn would be “very slight” if it did occur.

A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier.

U.S. GDP has declined for two straight quarters — a rule-of-thumb definition of a recession. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, a key economy tracker, has yet to formally declare one is underway.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10...st-11666051473

[Heathen Hammer]

Inflation is a global issue not a country specific one. It's mostly the consequences of COVID's disruption of the global supply chain and Putin invading Ukraine that both contribute to greater fuel and shipping costs, the primary factors driving inflation.

LOL what? Inflation has been going on for multiple decades, primary cause behind it being central banking and fiat currency system.
WHO causing pandemic and Biden's warmongering made it worse, but the root causes were there all along since Bretton-Woods collapsed.

[alhoon]

This makes utterly no sense. Biden was only elected in November of 2020 and only took office in January the next year. None of Biden's policies or actions occured until after his inauguration.

That would mean that Trump was in control of the Presidency all of 2020, when the biggest drop in oil production occured.

Ah, you're right. Partially.
Sure, the 2020 drop is actually under Trump and it's probably due to the Pandemic.
The slow recovery is under Bidet and you can see it raises much slower than under Trump. But yes, you do make sense here. It is not a destruction under Bidet. It's "much slower recovery".
Which I actually find a good thing, to be honest.

That drop corresponds with the pandemic caused drop in demand. You might want to take a stop and realize that the drop happens within 2020 which is when Trump was still the president. Would you like to rewind and try again?




What was his explanation exactly?




So, you agree with me but you don't want to say it. OK.

I don't have time to be long winded so:
- Yes
- He probably assumed you could fill the blanks, so he didn't give it.
- Yes

[chilon]

Yeah so, how exactly have global policies increased inflation in the US?
Yes, asinine and inherently idiotic responses to Flu+ managed to significantly up the US economy, thanks to democrats in large part and their lockdownerism.

Putin invaded Ukraine two years after covid. The US was energy independent prior to Biden taking office, so please explain this.

What causes inflation? Governments printing money?

Your assumption is that some crap policy affecting the rest of the world would necessarily affect the US, and I am I supposed to find comfort in the fact some crap policy is affecting the rest of the world (which I don't care about, everyone who isn't us.)

So things would be just as bad if Trump was President, even though we've been redlining since the moment Biden took office? Please explain. Explain how Biden's policies, which are almost the complete opposite of Trump's policies, would have led to the same result? Was destroying the domestic oil production integral in ensuring American success?

Yeah, the mainstream media is clearly anti-biden and pro-trump.

It's almost like we have a globalized economy. Here you have the Wall Street Journal

Mainly because we overestimated how quickly the economy would work around supply-chain issues ranging from reduced chip production and a shortage of container ships to inadequate supplies of cardboard boxes and truck drivers. I estimated last month that at least 1.3 points of today’s core PCE inflation is attributable to the uneven recovery from the Covid recession. Mr. Zandi estimated that it’s 2 points of additional CPI inflation. I conceptualize the failure to anticipate how long supply-chain problems would last as placing excessive faith in capitalism. We economists tend to believe that profit-seeking capitalists will sniff out, act on and profit from high prices whenever and wherever they pop up. You know: Buy low, sell high. That’s happening, but far more slowly than I imagined. In addition, new waves of Covid keep coming.

Much of the rest of the error in forecasting inflation can be traced directly to the war in Ukraine, which has severely constricted the world’s supplies of oil, wheat, fertilizer and other products. CPI data show that food inflation and energy inflation together have added about 2.6 percentage points to the overall inflation rate over the last 12 months.

So pinning the inflation tail on Joe Biden amounts to blaming him for war-induced shortages and the Fed’s mistiming. It is a bum rap.

And some more context from the Economic Policy Institute:

Rather than the specific policies of the Biden administration driving inflation, the roots of today’s inflation are a more complicated cocktail of other forces: from the spike in raw material, energy, and commodities prices due in large part to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to lingering supply chain disruptions and distorted consumer demand patterns stemming from the pandemic. These shocks and their unexpectedly large ripple effects are the global explanation for rising inflation.Again, this is not an academic exercise or simply providing political cover for any particular policymaker. Instead, there is real economic danger from misdiagnosing the inflation problem.

You have to look at how costs for shipping fuel is a global issues, its not a national thing because, you know the globalized economy.

• Record-high bunker prices are pushing transport costs higher, and in turn, impacting the costs of goods and services across the globe.
• The overall rebound in demand for fuels as economies return to normal after lockdowns is creating a tight market.
• Refiners are prioritizing gasoline and diesel production over bunker fuel because of strong demand.

And its not just fuel that contribute to global supply chain cost increases

So, to give you a sense of how much these container shipping costs have increased, consider the FBX Global Container Freight Index. It’s a measure of global shipping costs across major routes in the world. So, compared to February of 2020, this index increased by eight times, from about $1300 per container to a peak of around $11,000 in September of 2021. Remaining quite high to this day at about $9500. Now, bringing it closer to home, if we look at the cost of shipping a container from China, say, to the U.S. West Coast, costs have increased more than 12 times, from around $1300 in February of 2020 to close to $16,000 in the latest readings.

This stuff really isn't a debate to people whose companies deal with the global supply chain (like the one I work with) regardless of political affiliation.

And yes, the conservative half of MSM is very anti-Biden. Fox News = MSM, the Koch Bros huge network of local media = MSM, dozens of conservative talk shows on hundreds of stations = radio MSM.
Finally, I find comments like " everyone that isn't us" to be disgusting for a whole lot of reasons but I'll just leave that alone for now.

[Coughdrop addict]

It's amazing how out of touch with reality the right is.

OPEC...supply and demand...pandemic...Russia-Ukraine War.

None of these things are real to them. Only Biden, the cause of all their personal woes.

[PointOfViewGun]

Ah, you're right. Partially.
Sure, the 2020 drop is actually under Trump and it's probably due to the Pandemic.
The slow recovery is under Bidet and you can see it raises much slower than under Trump. But yes, you do make sense here. It is not a destruction under Bidet. It's "much slower recovery".

It's not a slow recovery given that during much of it pandemic factor did not disappear and its byproducts continued to linger. The rise under Trump is not a recovery either as it's not recovery from a bad period. It followed a similarly increasing global demand just like it did under Obama. So, to say that it's a slower recovery, what is it slower to?

[alhoon]

It's not a slow recovery given that during much of it pandemic factor did not disappear and its byproducts continued to linger. The rise under Trump is not a recovery either as it's not recovery from a bad period. It followed a similarly increasing global demand just like it did under Obama. So, to say that it's a slower recovery, what is it slower to?

It is a much slower rate of raise during recovery than the rate of raise before Bidet. And again, you should have figured that when I said "slower recovery" I was comparing the rate of increase of the recovery to the time before the pandemic. Stop splitting hairs please, it is tiresome.

OPEC...supply and demand...pandemic...Russia-Ukraine War.

None of these things are real to them. Only Biden, the cause of all their personal woes.

#1: To be honest, in his campaign speeches Biden was much less pro-oil than Trump. He is not hiding it and it's one of the reasons people voted for him. You may be pro-oil or against oil for reasons. Biden wants less oil consumption and cleaner production. It is in his agenda.

#2: About the conservatives detached from the reality... the progressives are not much better. The success of operation Warp Speed, that both Biden admin and Fauci lauded the Trump administration of, is something you don't hear often. How Trump's moves, choices coupled with his unpredictability and tantrums have made Middle East the most peaceful it has been since Bush2 war and made North Korea less bellicose is never acknowledged by the progressives (Note: He is a butthole and speaks the language the local tyrants understand). How the stock market reacted very favorably to his deregulation (and chopping of vital environmental protections) and economy growth reached heights that Obama himself said he would need a magic wand for, are also not acknowledged by the progressives.

Let's not pretend the progressives are less opportunistic, less unfair, less detached and less biased when it comes to criticizing Trump than the Conservatives are in criticizing Biden.

[Coughdrop addict]

Let's not pretend the progressives are less opportunistic, less unfair, less detached and less biased when it comes to criticizing Trump than the Conservatives are in criticizing Biden.

Not so Alhoon. There are very large differences between the left and the right.

A good example is the recent judgements against Alex Jones for tormenting the parents of murdered children for years.

On the Democratic side, you’ve got outrage and disgust towards Jones for the lies he pushed to line his pockets without a care for the pain he willfully inflicted. We think he's one of the worst people alive, and certainly one of the worst Americans to ever live.

Then you’ve got the Republican side where they are proud of him and so glad that he exposed all these evil deep state Obama crisis actors. They think he’s being mistreated, hasn’t done anything wrong, and should actually be treated like a hero.

That sums up both sides nicely.

[Sir Adrian]

Let's not pretend the progressives are less opportunistic, less unfair, less detached and less biased when it comes to criticizing Trump than the Conservatives are in criticizing Biden.

The fact that people still complain about Trump in the Biden thread even though it's 2 years since he lost the election and he will never be president again is really telling.

[PointOfViewGun]

It is a much slower rate of raise during recovery than the rate of raise before Bidet. And again, you should have figured that when I said "slower recovery" I was comparing the rate of increase of the recovery to the time before the pandemic. Stop splitting hairs please, it is tiresome.

Not much slower. Certainly not slower than half the speed. And it largely reflects the trend in demand rather than any government policy. Using correct terminology matters. Disregard of it is what causes a tiresome situation.

The fact that people still complain about Trump in the Biden thread even though it's 2 years since he lost the election and he will never be president again is really telling.

You got it backwards. In most cases it's people trying a jab at Biden by comparing to Trump or lamenting about him that end up creating a discussion about Trump.

[alhoon]

Not so Alhoon. There are very large differences between the left and the right.

A good example is the recent judgements against Alex Jones for tormenting the parents of murdered children for years.

Alex Jones is not Trump though; I mentioned the progressives' obsession with Trump that rivals the conservatives blind bias against Biden.

Not much slower. Certainly not slower than half the speed. And it largely reflects the trend in demand rather than any government policy. Using correct terminology matters. Disregard of it is what causes a tiresome situation.

Agree on the first part, partially agree on the second. Sure, disregard causes situations. But we're talking about very clear intention here.

[irontaino]

The fact that people still complain about Trump in the Biden thread even though it's 2 years since he lost the election and he will never be president again is really telling.

He intends to run again in 2024, and the cult of MAGA is still strong. He's still relevant, unfortunately.

[Heathen Hammer]

If we go by US government's algorithms for estimating inflation, average minimal wage in 1970s was $120/hr or so in 2022 USD.
Let's be frank here: American population was robbed of its wealth and purchasing power by US political establishment and the banks.
So the anger directed towards the political establishment and bankers is very justified and Americans would be right in demanding bigger political changes then just switching the parties again.

[PointOfViewGun]

If we go by US government's algorithms for estimating inflation, average minimal wage in 1970s was $120/hr or so in 2022 USD.

Minimum wage was 1.45 dollars in 1970 which makes 11.09 dollars today. The decade was finished with 3.10 dollars by 1979 which makes 12.67 dollars today. Where does the 120 figure come from?

[Heathen Hammer]

Minimum wage was 1.45 dollars in 1970 which makes 11.09 dollars today. The decade was finished with 3.10 dollars by 1979 which makes 12.67 dollars today. Where does the 120 figure come from?

According to artificially low algorithm, yes.
When you factor in inflation rate for silver or gold, those numbers are radically different.
The link bases it on the original inflation formula, before it was changed to essentially downplay the loss of purchasing power.

[PointOfViewGun]

According to artificially low algorithm, yes.
When you factor in inflation rate for silver or gold, those numbers are radically different.
The link bases it on the original inflation formula, before it was changed to essentially downplay the loss of purchasing power.

While I don't see any argument of substance that makes your "alternative" method more valid, the link you gave starts a model by 1980 while you talked about 1970s. Where did you get the 120 figure from?

[alhoon]

According to artificially low algorithm, yes.
When you factor in inflation rate for silver or gold, those numbers are radically different.
The link bases it on the original inflation formula, before it was changed to essentially downplay the loss of purchasing power.

Why would you factor in inflation rate for silver or gold? That doesn't make sense. Gold is now more valuable than it was in the 70s (provides security), thus the price increase.

[Heathen Hammer]

Why would you factor in inflation rate for silver or gold? That doesn't make sense. Gold is now more valuable than it was in the 70s (provides security), thus the price increase.

That was an example.
The point is that the methodology originally used by US government was severely altered multiple times to make results more "presentable" (as per the above link):

The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms of year-to-year percent change in the price index.

So yeah, it appears that Americans were robbed, pure and simple, of overwhelming majority of their wealth, due to US government and its banking system engaging in machinations over that period of time, while simultaneously intentionally misleading and misinforming the public on the sheer scale of that decrease.

[alhoon]

That was an example.
The point is that the methodology originally used by US government was severely altered multiple times to make results more "presentable" (as per the above link):

So yeah, it appears that Americans were robbed, pure and simple, of overwhelming majority of their wealth, due to US government and its banking system engaging in machinations over that period of time, while simultaneously intentionally misleading and misinforming the public on the sheer scale of that decrease.

HH, this smells a bit funny.

It is like saying that because we changed thanks to Einstein the way we measure space and time, that we are now being robbed from a from a few nanoseconds of netflix service because thanks to relativity, the satellites that bring us our movies are in a bit compressed time in relation to us.

OK, perhaps that was a bad example, but the point I want to make is:
It is much more plausible that the system changed as our understanding of economics changed and we developed a better and more representative index.