President Biden's first term in office

[alhoon]

Oh god no votes not actually engaged in politics who want johnny impossible with his green lantern ring put incumbent behind -need I really do the wok to show the same polls against every democrat back to bill and even saint Ronnie at this time of year?

Do you have any such polls for Trump/Biden in Jan 2020 or Obama/Romney in Jan 2012? Or even Hillary/Trump in Jan 2016?

[conon394]

Do you have any such polls for Trump/Biden in Jan 2020 or Obama/Romney in Jan 2012? Or even Hillary/Trump in Jan 2016?

Yes I can but it will a bit longer than I thought. I was sure had book marked them but maybe I buried them in a the wrong sub folder so please stand by.

[alhoon]

Yes I can but it will a bit longer than I thought. I was sure had book marked them but maybe I buried them in a the wrong sub folder so please stand by.

That's such a 2022 answer!

I will simply ask ChatGPT (I have the pro version that looks the internet).

Obama / Romney 2012

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Prompt: ChatGPT, in the USA election cycle of Obama vs Romney in 2012, what were the polls like in January 2012? Who was projected to win? Give me a couple of links. Answer in 300 words or less

ChatGPT: (TL;DR: Obama was ahead by like 7-12%)

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

In January 2012, the polling data for the U.S. Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney indicated a competitive race, with Obama generally leading. Various polls conducted in January showed different margins:

1. **Public Policy Polling (January 13-16, 2012)**: Barack Obama at 47% and Mitt Romney at 40%【19†source】.
2. **NBC News/Wall Street Journal (January 22-24, 2012)**: Barack Obama at 45% and Mitt Romney at 32%【19†source】.
3. **Pew Research Center (January 11-16, 2012)**: Barack Obama at 44% and Mitt Romney at 32%【19†source】.

These polls reflect a lead for Obama, but the percentages and the lead margins varied across different polls. It's important to note that early polling can fluctuate and may not always be indicative of the final election outcome. The inclusion of third-party or independent candidates in some polls also influenced the results.

PS. ChatGPT calls it a "competitive" race when Obama was ahead by like 10% at that point. ChatGPT is wrong; it tries to step on eggshells and to account for the fact that Romney was not even nominated yet.

Hillary/ Trump 2016

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Prompt: Thanks, ChatGPT. Now, could you tell me the polling data for January 2016, in the Hillary vs Trump? <=== ALWAYS be polite to the AI! You never know...

ChatGPT: (TL;DR: That one was competitive. I really don't understand how I was so confident Hillary would win by 10% or more. I guess at the time I thought the American public was smarter)

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

In January 2016, the polling data for the U.S. Presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump showed a close race. Key polls from that month indicated the following:

1. **CNN/ORC (January 21-24, 2016)**: Hillary Clinton at 48%, Donald Trump at 47%, with a 1% lead for Clinton【31†source】.
2. **NBC News/Wall Street Journal (January 9-13, 2016)**: Hillary Clinton at 51%, Donald Trump at 41%, indicating a 10% lead for Clinton【32†source】.
3. Another poll in early January showed Donald Trump leading with 47% to Hillary Clinton's 44%, giving Trump a 3% lead【33†source】.

These polls illustrate that the race was quite competitive, with varying leads for each candidate depending on the poll and the time within the month. This variability is typical in election cycles, where public opinion can shift rapidly.

[conon394]

Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters

https://news.gallup.com/poll/158048/...ly-voters.aspx

https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-...-how-bad-is-it

https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release-Legacy?releaseid=2215

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-r...es-poll-finds/

https://www.nytimes.com/1992/06/11/us/the-1992-campaign-on-the-trail-poll-gives-perot-a-clear-lead.html (for Bill)

[alhoon]

But those are just 4 polls spread from November 2011 to May 2012 and two of those have them at dead heat.
I found (Well, ChatGPT found) no less than three big polls from January 2012 that showed a persistent trend that Obama was above Romney.

And here is the favorability of both of them in 2012: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics...he-candidates/
As you can see, Obama had a clear favorability advantage throughout 2012 despite a few polls here and there showing Romney and Obama being close.

[conon394]

But those are just 4 polls spread from November 2011 to May 2012 and two of those have them at dead heat.
I found (Well, ChatGPT found) no less than three big polls from January 2012 that showed a persistent trend that Obama was above Romney.

And here is the favorability of both of them in 2012: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics...he-candidates/
As you can see, Obama had a clear favorability advantage throughout 2012 despite a few polls here and there showing Romney and Obama being close.

You know I not even going to both really that counter argument? The simple fact is at this time most people are oblivious and. The people who answer polls are heavily biased and if you bother to read them then run 2 or 3 version or statistical correction to match the expectation of the people doing the poll and in most cases the poll questions drive desired answers and absoultly provided no information to low information voters.

[Vanoi]

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/118th-cong...003000033.html

Congratulations to the 118th Congress for being the most ineffective Congress since the Great Depression and one of the most ineffective in general US history. The GOP proves that it can't even perform basic functions such as governing.

[alhoon]

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/118th-cong...003000033.html

Congratulations to the 118th Congress for being the most ineffective Congress since the Great Depression and one of the most ineffective in general US history. The GOP proves that it can't even perform basic functions such as governing.

They don't believe in the federal government. High-ranking members of the Congress, and heads of committees are talking about dividing the country, ending the federation.

[Lord Thesaurian]

The long running dispute between Texas and the federal government over border security has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis following defiance of the SCOTUS decision to side with the feds. I’ve yet to see any official explanation of SCOTUS’ reasoning.

https://www.scotusblog.com/case-file...urity-v-texas/

The governor of Texas has published a compelling letter explaining the state’s position in legal and historical terms. The Biden Admin’s lawlessness has resulted in millions of illegal immigrants from all over the world entering this country en masse just since he took office, with thousands streaming in unabated every single day. Since 2021 alone, total illegal immigration to the US exceeds the populations of most states.

https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/..._1.24.2024.pdf

To make matters worse, the anti-US government of Mexico has weaponized mass migration, with illegal crossings magically falling in the last month after obtaining concessions from the Biden Admin. The latter is so weak and out of touch they are held hostage by utter reliance on an impoverished narco-state just to uphold a basic constitutional duty to secure the border, yet they insist upon preventing border states from stepping into the breach.

https://homeland.house.gov/2023/11/1...as-stonewalls/

Best wishes and heartfelt thanks to the state of Texas, standing alone in a largely symbolic, doomed effort to protect themselves and their countrymen from an invasion aided and abetted from within by the people whose job it is to stop it.

[conon394]

The long running dispute between Texas and the federal government over border security has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis following defiance of the SCOTUS decision to side with the feds. I’ve yet to see any official explanation of SCOTUS’ reasoning.

https://www.scotusblog.com/case-file...urity-v-texas/

The governor of Texas has published a compelling letter explaining the state’s position in legal and historical terms. The Biden Admin’s lawlessness has resulted in millions of illegal immigrants from all over the world entering this country en masse just since he took office, with thousands streaming in unabated every single day. Since 2021 alone, total illegal immigration to the US exceeds the populations of most states.

https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/..._1.24.2024.pdf

To make matters worse, the anti-US government of Mexico has weaponized mass migration, with illegal crossings magically falling in the last month after obtaining concessions from the Biden Admin. The latter is so weak and out of touch they are held hostage by utter reliance on an impoverished narco-state just to uphold a basic constitutional duty to secure the border, yet they insist upon preventing border states from stepping into the breach.

https://homeland.house.gov/2023/11/1...as-stonewalls/

Best wishes and heartfelt thanks to the state of Texas, standing alone in a largely symbolic, doomed effort to protect themselves and their countrymen from an invasion aided and abetted from within by the people whose job it is to stop it.

Invasion really? OK you wave a magic wand a replace all the illegals working in the us at sub par incomes and work standards and safety and w/o over time or workman's comp and enjoy the result. You last I check my Polish ancestors showed u[ off the boat answered a maybe 8 questions and became Americans. But hey you join Japan China and Italy going down the demographic drain have at it.

[irontaino]

The long running dispute between Texas and the federal government over border security has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis following defiance of the SCOTUS decision to side with the feds. I’ve yet to see any official explanation of SCOTUS’ reasoning.

https://www.scotusblog.com/case-file...urity-v-texas/

The governor of Texas has published a compelling letter explaining the state’s position in legal and historical terms. The Biden Admin’s lawlessness has resulted in millions of illegal immigrants from all over the world entering this country en masse just since he took office, with thousands streaming in unabated every single day. Since 2021 alone, total illegal immigration to the US exceeds the populations of most states.

https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/..._1.24.2024.pdf

To make matters worse, the anti-US government of Mexico has weaponized mass migration, with illegal crossings magically falling in the last month after obtaining concessions from the Biden Admin. The latter is so weak and out of touch they are held hostage by utter reliance on an impoverished narco-state just to uphold a basic constitutional duty to secure the border, yet they insist upon preventing border states from stepping into the breach.

https://homeland.house.gov/2023/11/1...as-stonewalls/

Best wishes and heartfelt thanks to the state of Texas, standing alone in a largely symbolic, doomed effort to protect themselves and their countrymen from an invasion aided and abetted from within by the people whose job it is to stop it.

All of this so conservatives can cheer on watching immigrants die on barbed wire fleeing wars that America exacerbates.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Invasion really? OK you wave a magic wand a replace all the illegals working in the us at sub par incomes and work standards and safety and w/o over time or workman's comp and enjoy the result. You last I check my Polish ancestors showed u[ off the boat answered a maybe 8 questions and became Americans. But hey you join Japan China and Italy going down the demographic drain have at it.

I agree the liberal establishment’s insistence that we must stop having babies to save the world while also insisting we must import everyone else’s babies to replace the ones we don’t have is nonsensical and dangerous, but probably not in the way you’re suggesting.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

All of this so conservatives can cheer on watching immigrants die on barbed wire fleeing wars that America exacerbates.

You’ve got it backwards. Many people in the developing world are desperate to flee their failing countries precisely because the economic miracle of globalization built on the back of the US navy is falling apart, and on top of that US adversaries are having success in undermining it. We cannot import the rest of the world just because they no longer wish to enjoy the benefits of unipolarity.

https://www.wbcsd.org/Overview/Panor...eglobalization

Developing countries suffered from political instability and economic failure before the US ever existed and that’s the state of nature many are returning to while the US gradually withdraws as the guarantor of their cheap access to world markets.

[Muizer]

I agree the liberal establishment’s insistence that we must stop having babies to save the world while also insisting we must import everyone else’s babies to replace the ones we don’t have is nonsensical and dangerous, but probably not in the way you’re suggesting.

If you are opposed to importing "everybody else's babies", then why object to Sanders saying women in poor countries should have access to birth control? It seems to me those two things are hardly incompatible.

[Lord Thesaurian]

If you are opposed to importing "everybody else's babies", then why object to Sanders saying women in poor countries should have access to birth control? It seems to me those two things are hardly incompatible.

My interlocutor lamented demographic collapse in the developed world as a justification for tolerating mass migration. I pointed out that the liberal establishment seeks to replicate the trend of crashing birthrates globally through population control, while also complaining we have no choice but to import millions of people to compensate for it. The incompatibility or hypocrisy between those two aims has little to do with my assessment of them. If anything, it suggests the liberal establishment is incapable of solving a problem exacerbated by their own policy positions.

[The spartan]

I pointed out that the liberal establishment seeks to replicate the trend of crashing birthrates globally through population control,

And how would they do that? What does that policy look like?

[alhoon]

And how would they do that? What does that policy look like?

I don't know every conservative's answer but for some conservatives, and I kid you not, the answer is "the policy that would lead to decline and crashing birthrates is cheaper medicare!" I kid you not. Because affordable medicare options for the poor to not die in droves is "what will lead to X>Y> COMMUNISM!!! > Z > Collapse!"

[Lord Thesaurian]

I don't know every conservative's answer but for some conservatives, and I kid you not, the answer is "the policy that would lead to decline and crashing birthrates is cheaper medicare!" I kid you not. Because affordable medicare options for the poor to not die in droves is "what will lead to X>Y> COMMUNISM!!! > Z > Collapse!"

Or we can just read the article.

Empowering women and educating everyone on the need to curb population growth seems a reasonable campaign to enact. Would you be courageous enough to discuss this issue and make it a key feature of a plan to address climate catastrophe?”

“Well, Martha, the answer is yes,” Sanders said.

[The spartan]

Or we can just read the article.

So someone telling people that having less kids helps climate change...is "population control"? That sounds rather voluntary.

[alhoon]

So someone telling people that having less kids helps climate change...is "population control"? That sounds rather voluntary.

Actually, nobody would say "you know what? We were planning to have another kid with my husband, but since I read this would affect the environment, I decided not to".
The need to have children and the decision on how many to have is much too personal and basic for this to factor in. Personal finances would play a role. "Save the environment by having less kids!" would not. Thus... Chinese-like taxes on the number of children will have to follow. A "climate tax" that increases with the number of children.

Looking at this from the lens of the population size is also the wrong approach, IMO. Make it so that the population wastes less energy instead of keeping the population as wasteful while lowering the population.

[Lord Thesaurian]

The Democrats have found a solution to the border crisis: tie a border security bill to billions in Ukraine aid they know House Republicans won’t accept, so they can shift the blame for millions of illegal migrants flooding the country since their POTUS took office. Now Biden can talk tough about shutting down the border, without angering his political base by actually doing something to confront the invasion.

https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-ai...-/7452227.html

But there are at least some borders Democrats are willing to protect, and those are the ones in the countries they’re actually from. Is it too late to apologize to Michael Flynn?

https://nypost.com/2024/01/29/news/r...rt-of-somalia/

It’s a grim window into the future where millions of foreign born voters who overwhelmingly vote Democrat, now a record high proportion of the electorate and Congress, become foreign born Democrat politicians who brag about how much power they have to influence US policy in the interests of their home countries. Mass migration from Europe at the turn of the last century made US politics and government more European, and the Democrats still idolize them today. I can’t wait to live in a place more like El Salvador, India, Venezuela or Honduras.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/wo...238/w27238.pdf

Iran is proving trickier, with the Administration stonewalling their own military advisers who are telling them to get serious, especially after 160+ attacks on US forces by Iranian proxies finally score kills over the weekend. Perhaps Biden knows his foreign supporters sympathize with the enemy and doesn’t want to stir the melting pot in an election year.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/...each-over-gaza

What he doesn’t know, apparently, is that he should at least give the intern some notes before she does interviews on the Administration’s response.

https://www.newsweek.com/karine-jean...sonnel-1865021

I’ve lamented the decline and “holification” of my country on this forum for many years now, but even I never expected the pace to move at this speed. Should have opened the copium valve a little wider.