Presidential primaries (2024)

[Abdülmecid I]

So it's this time of the quadrennium again, although the 2024 primaries don't look particularly exciting. There are three candidates in the Democratic primaries, Marianne Williamson, Dean Philips and Joe Biden, but it's just a formality, as the incumbent president is obviously going to easily win. In the Republican side it's somewhat more complicated, but there's also a clear front-runner, former president Donald Trump.

From the other four candidates, Asa Hutchinson is completely irrelevant. Ron DeSanctis gained some free publicity, when he played tough with abortion and LGBT issues, but his image as the bastion of conservative principles has long since deflated. Presumably because even Ted Cruz is more charismatic than him. Then Vivek Ramaswamy rose to prominence, but he also failed to maintain the momentum. He reminds me of Elizabeth Warren of the 2020 Democratic primaries. On the other hand, Nikki Haley's (the US ambassador to the UN under the early Trump administration) numbers are improving, but I think it will be just temporary. Even if all the other candidates coalesce into a single united front, I doubt they can challenge Trump, which means that in upcoming November there will be a repetition of the 2020 elections, unless an unexpected legal obstacle emerges.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

There's no C in Ron Desantis

I'd vote for Haley, but I think it's pretty clear Trump's going to get it.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Im convinced Vivek entered the race with the goal of becoming Trump’s VP, rather than any desire to be president. Failing that, it seems more like he’s using his campaign to launch a podcast of some kind. I could see him joining TPUSA or one of those Millennial/Gen Z conservative groups as a token personality like Candace Owens after he drops out. That said, “Lord Rama/Vishnu” is by far the most based name in American politics today.

I still think Ron would make an ideal generic GOP candidate in any race, but choosing to make his national debut as Trump lite while Trump is still the de facto leader of the Party was career suicide.

Hailey is the establishment candidate and a great example of what made Bush Jr politically toxic / why his wing of the party was subsequently crushed by populists. I loathe hearing or seeing her but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Party machinery bets the farm on her once Trump gets his first conviction.

The end result will be a victory for Biden, even if Trump doesn’t get convicted and remains on the ballot. We’re nearly a decade into the “Trump is a Russian agent who burned the Reichstag so we have to ban his candidacy to save democracy” bs and it has been successful regardless of the facts. Independent/moderate voters who tend to swing to the opposition party broke with the historical trend and sided with Democrats in 2022. I don’t expect them to change their minds this year.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Yeah I don't think Morrowind guy is a very serious candidate

[conon394]

@Abdülmecid I

unless an unexpected legal obstacle emerges.

I don't see any thing that disturb his base and thus a win in the primaries. In the general election potentially. The final conviction could hurt his he a good business man and not just a good con man image. The document case even if slow could toss a big reveal . Problem there is Pence and Biden had seemingly minor mistakes cooperated and materialization out of it.

In any case I do believe we are looking a 2020 v2.

[Mithradates]

Im convinced Vivek entered the race with the goal of becoming Trump’s VP, rather than any desire to be president.

Yeah, he doesnt want to be president now, he wants to be the heir apparent for the MAGA movement. He is young, and Trump wont be around forever.

Yeah I don't think Morrowind guy is a very serious candidate

I knew I heard this name somewhere before!

MVGA! Make Vvardenfell Great Again!

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Aaaand he dropped out.

[alhoon]

Why is Vivek in the opening thread?

EDIT: Link to the previous thread that was about Republican Candidates only

[conon394]

Because if you listen to the MSM in the US he briefly rose to prominence - which he never did. and clung on to roundly defeated in Iowa. And before dropping out he was polling close to DeSantis so of course the media now speculate where his NH votes will go. The reall problem is even if Haley manages a good second place in NH she getting stopped in South Carolina. Her only momentum there seem to simple eating DeSantis' early polling.

[Vanoi]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/haley-say...173843945.html

Nikki just can't seem to keep that foot out of her mouth.

[PointOfViewGun]

Is this all the Republican party could come up with?

[conon394]

Nikki just can't seem to keep that foot out of her mouth.

She has to work the base. She really is in a vice if she goes toe to toe Trump and DeSantis she kills her big Gen Election gold star is polling say she might swing undecideds , centrists etc. But for now she has to mouth the words the primary base wants to hear. But she is lucky I mean my follow up question would have been so contextualize that answer considering the Chinese exclusion act or Jim Crow laws please.

[alhoon]

Halley Prediction

I expect Halley will do "surprisingly" well in New Hamsphire, getting 37-40% of the vote, finishing 6-10% behind Trump.
Then, Haley will go to her home state and lose by 25% or something, at which point she will drop out of the race, humiliated.


From the Republican candidates that made it to the debates, I like her the most. But she has no realistic path to winning the nomination.

She stands a good chance for 2028, however.

[conon394]

From the Republican candidates that made it to the debates, I like her the most. But she has no realistic path to winning the nomination.

Why she panders to the right base relentlessly.

She stands a good chance for 2028, however.

No she really does not.

In any case both Her and DeSantis will stay in till super Tuesday.

Also a lot poles suggest a lot votes are sorta not clear about what a front runner Trump was and all the breathless coverage gave them the impression the race was real. Second also some polling says Trump outside the hard MAGA base could be hurt by court rulings. So it behooves the last two to stay in as long as possible

[alhoon]

Why she panders to the right base relentlessly.



No she really does not.

In any case both Her and DeSantis will stay in till super Tuesday.

Also a lot poles suggest a lot votes are sorta not clear about what a front runner Trump was and all the breathless coverage gave them the impression the race was real. Second also some polling says Trump outside the hard MAGA base could be hurt by court rulings. So it behooves the last two to stay in as long as possible

Nah, I disagree. She will not recover from a deep blow in her home state, when she is so far behind in the polls.

[conon394]

Nah, I disagree. She will not recover from a deep blow in her home state, when she is so far behind in the polls.

If she does good in NH and deSantis flat lines she has every to ignore South Caroline and wait out till super Tuesday. Sure the she going t loose to Trump but the question is how baddy will deSantis both second placers need to out last the other and hop there really is a not Trump vote. THe question is where do DeSAntis voters go I guess Trump but until after super Tuesday she can't be sure.

[alhoon]

For the Democratic Primaries... It is hilarious that Biden is off the ballot in a democratic state for random reasons. Not that it would count but in case it was a real primary instead of a simply re-affirmation that this old man would get the Democrats to back him, it could have been important.

How the Superdelegates go this time?

[conon394]

For the Democratic Primaries... It is hilarious that Biden is off the ballot in a democratic state for random reasons. Not that it would count but in case it was a real primary instead of a simply re-affirmation that this old man would get the Democrats to back him, it could have been important.

How the Superdelegates go this time?

Again I am pretty happy with the old man. You keep harping on age but he has been far more effective with less the fancy young Obama.

[alhoon]

Again I am pretty happy with the old man. You keep harping on age but he has been far more effective with less the fancy young Obama.

I strongly disagree. Biden has been an ineffective president, paralyzed by a country divided and faced with global challenges he is ill-equipped to handle.
His achievements would not have been minor... if he didn't have to roll them back later to get approval from the Republicans.

Meanwhile Obama is the 10th best president in USA's history according to several historians and presidential scholars.

[conon394]

I strongly disagree. Biden has been an ineffective president, paralyzed by a country divided and faced with global challenges he is ill-equipped to handle.
His achievements would not have been minor... if he didn't have to roll them back later to get approval from the Republicans.

Meanwhile Obama is the 10th best president in USA's history according to several historians and presidential scholars.

The Latter are fooling themselves because they don't want to tarnish the first black president. Any List that ranks him Higher than LBJ is not worth the server space it occupies. Certainly not if seen from the democratic perspective. Also on the second link again from a democratic perspective Bill was clearly better than Obama. But I suspect just because JFK was telegenic and young you rank over LBJ. Boomer love JFK he is beyond overrated.

Failure to leave A-stan. Libya and Syria blunders. Reducing himself to the flawed Romney care plan for national health care and waiting around for the illusion of bi partisan cooperation from republicans who made it clear that was not forthcoming. Failing to allow Bush tax cuts to sunset in the vain hope of more not ever appearing deals with republicans. Failing to get RBG to retire an ill women when he had the chance to replace her with somebody young (you note a mistake the republicans do not make) Failing to develop the Democrats at the state level - allowing otherwise blue states like Wisconsin and Michigan to be gerrymandered to into red states. His pace of not getting the federal bench filled allowing Trump a whole pile load of seats to fill. Continuing Carter and Clinton's disdain for organized labor. Wasting political capital on a pointless nuclear deal with Iran that he knew he could not turn into a treaty. Immigration reform - I think not. Listened to an ass like Larry summers and not doing enough to really deal with the banking crisis but just enough to save the wealth of the wealthy. Not one effort to follow the lead of the states and start the ball rolling on legalizing pot at the federal level. Nope sorry Obama talks nice and is telegenic but I rank him no better than Carter. Its cool he was black but kinda useless considering the kind of congressional majority he had.

Biden has been an ineffective president, paralyzed by a country divided and faced with global challenges he is ill-equipped to handle.
His achievements would not have been minor... if he didn't have to roll them back later to get approval from the Republicans.

You clearly have only the vaguest understanding of the US system.