Page 30 of 143 FirstFirst ... 52021222324252627282930313233343536373839405580130 ... LastLast
Results 581 to 600 of 2857

Thread: President Biden's first term in office

  1. #581

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Not to mention the "worst inflation in 12 years" is just the economy pulling itself out from the hole the Republicans dug. As the economy grows from greater consumer and investor confidence (from having a government that isn't run by an infantile buffoon) and the lifting of Covid restrictions (no thanks to the Republicans who still call it a cold/blame it on 5G/call anyone who says they had a loved one die from it a deep state liar), there is more money being put into it.

    It's just like in 2009 when Obama led the recovery from the last Republican-led demolition of the economy, with the right hating every minute of it and desperately predicting/hoping for hyperinflation and the end of America. They'd rather be destitute than have to acknowledge a Democrat did something positive.

  2. #582
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Bayou country
    Posts
    3,717

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Another news source commenting on Chairman Xiden's explosive temper based on the NYT article. As you can see, this news source, AT, was reporting on Xiden's temper last summer. I wonder what took the NYT so long?

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...decisions.html

    Meanwhile, Willie Brown's former mistress, Kackala Harris, has still not made a trip the the US border. Texas governor Abbot is describing the situation as out of control.

  3. #583

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Found this guy on pinterest:



    Says his name is Xiden Xaremaker. Is he this Xiden guy you keep talking about?
    The Armenian Issue

  4. #584
    Indefinitely Banned
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    lala
    Posts
    4,273

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    Another news source commenting on Chairman Xiden's explosive temper based on the NYT article. As you can see, this news source, AT, was reporting on Xiden's temper last summer. I wonder what took the NYT so long?

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...decisions.html

    Meanwhile, Willie Brown's former mistress, Kackala Harris, has still not made a trip the the US border. Texas governor Abbot is describing the situation as out of control.
    Let me try:

    Meanwhile, Stormy McDaniels one minute man who compared said porn star to his daughter Ivanka, Russian Donnie Chump, has still not released his taxes (how bad must they be right, jesus wept) and has announced he will be taking down social media July 4th his new site, givememoneytopaymydebtsandformylifestyleuntiljuly4thwhenilaunchsomethingidontexpecttogoanywherebutwillblameitsfailureonaconspiracybytheleft/mysupportersareidiotsimoandiamanidiotso.com. Most of the world is still laughing at all us because of these twits.

  5. #585
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Bayou country
    Posts
    3,717

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Arizona AG calls on Chairman Xiden to fire Kackala Harris from her border czar role:

    https://www.breitbart.com/border/202...der-czar-role/

    Some people have speculated that she spent so much time underneath Willie Brown that she lost her sense of direction while at the same time developed an unquenchable craving for ice cream. If any one sees her at one of her favorite ice cream shops please advise her that the border of concern is South. If she needs a compass the army will be happy to give her one.

  6. #586
    Indefinitely Banned
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    lala
    Posts
    4,273

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    Arizona AG calls on Chairman Xiden to fire Kackala Harris from her border czar role:

    https://www.breitbart.com/border/202...der-czar-role/

    Some people have speculated that she spent so much time underneath Willie Brown that she lost her sense of direction while at the same time developed an unquenchable craving for ice cream.
    Arizona AG is being investigated for running a kiddie porn ring. Just a headsup. Is that a serious speculation? From you it is believable so I can't be sure. Why not change Harris to Whorris or something equally stupid. One would suspect you have considered it. Go for it. Be bold.

    Still though, breitbart is beneath your arguments, American Thinker or nothing.

  7. #587
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Cool and normal
    Posts
    5,419

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Says his name is Xiden Xaremaker. Is he this Xiden guy you keep talking about?
    Name calling and labelling is part of the dehumanisation process. It enables people to be able to say and do things that wouldn't normally be acceptable, and to dismiss their reasoning for no reason.

    It's actually quite a nasty business - I don't like to get into slippery slope conversations, but it is definitely part of a process that eventually enables the doing of abhorrent things. Parroting name calling by politicians speaks to a particular weakness of character - I think B.W. is better than that, and can handle a political conversation without the need to dehumanise opponents.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MARENOSTRUM

  8. #588

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    Name calling and labelling is part of the dehumanisation process. It enables people to be able to say and do things that wouldn't normally be acceptable, and to dismiss their reasoning for no reason.

    It's actually quite a nasty business - I don't like to get into slippery slope conversations, but it is definitely part of a process that eventually enables the doing of abhorrent things. Parroting name calling by politicians speaks to a particular weakness of character - I think B.W. is better than that, and can handle a political conversation without the need to dehumanise opponents.
    It's a derisory nickname for a person in a position of immense power. Somehow I doubt Sleepy Joe feels tormented. He did square up to CornPop after all.



  9. #589
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
    Moderator Emeritus

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Chania, Greece
    Posts
    24,756

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Mask removals and rubbing shoulders in USA:
    The big mistake of Biden, that will cost several thousands of lives. With a good vaccine, you have 80%-90% or so chance to not be infected when exposed to Covid. Sounds good right?
    Well, if you're exposed to Covid five times the chance to not be infected is 0.9^5 = 60%. Still good, right?
    Well, while it is still good, it means that if you're an idiot like Bidet suggests and walk around with no mask and go to theatres etc etc you still have a good chance to get infected. And you will infect others. Sure, it will slow down (weekly cases drop by about 15%-20%) but not as much as if Bidet was not idiotically throwing the mask away and saying "socialize, we're done".

    We are not done.
    Sure, things are getting better but just because of this Trump-like idiocy, Bidet will slow down the recovery. Instead of 25%-30% cases less per week, USA will have 15%-20% cases less per week.
    Which means that there would be like 50K cases per week in mid July instead of 15K cases per week!

    As such, Biden killed about 10000 Americans that didn't have to die.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
    "Angry Uncle Gordon" describes me well.
    _______________________________________________________
    Beta-tester for Darthmod Empire, the default modification for Empire Total War that does not ask for your money behind patreon.
    Developer of Causa Belli submod for Darthmod, headed by Hammeredalways and a ton of other people.
    Developer of LtC: Random maps submod for Lands to Conquer (that brings a multitude of random maps and other features).

  10. #590

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    Mask removals and rubbing shoulders in USA:
    The big mistake of Biden, that will cost several thousands of lives. With a good vaccine, you have 80%-90% or so chance to not be infected when exposed to Covid. Sounds good right?
    Well, if you're exposed to Covid five times the chance to not be infected is 0.9^5 = 60%. Still good, right?
    Well, while it is still good, it means that if you're an idiot like Bidet suggests and walk around with no mask and go to theatres etc etc you still have a good chance to get infected. And you will infect others. Sure, it will slow down (weekly cases drop by about 15%-20%) but not as much as if Bidet was not idiotically throwing the mask away and saying "socialize, we're done".

    We are not done.
    Sure, things are getting better but just because of this Trump-like idiocy, Bidet will slow down the recovery. Instead of 25%-30% cases less per week, USA will have 15%-20% cases less per week.
    Which means that there would be like 50K cases per week in mid July instead of 15K cases per week!

    As such, Biden killed about 10000 Americans that didn't have to die.

    You should be made aware that your calculations are a bit off. The problem is that most people don't understand what 95% efficacy actually means. It does not mean that 5% will still get infected.

    When used in medical terms, the word efficacy has a totally different meaning than saying something is 95% effective. I was confused about this also until I looked it up.

    Anyway, if I understand this correctly, First one has to start with the rate of infection with no vaccine and then apply the efficacy rate to that. You end up with an infection rate of something like .04%. That's four 100ths of a percent.

    Here's a link that explains it better than I can.

    https://www.livescience.com/covid-19...explained.html

    One of the problems we had in the US is that the CDC was telling people that they had to continue wearing masks after being fully vaccinated. They were still saying this as late as a day or two ago. It was pointed out by numerous doctors and epidemiologists that they were in fact denying the science in keeping vaccinated people from resuming some sort of normal life. This was the mixed message being sent out that in effect also discouraged a lot of people on the fence from getting vaccinated.

    Even the legacy news was questioning this for a change. So the CDC in just the last few day totally reversed the vaccinated guidelines policy--prompted by the administration of course.

    This was mostly political at its heart. Recently, the new jobs report came out indicated that it had missed its one million new jobs estimate by by 75%.

    Across the country businesses are complaining that they have jobs that that nobody will even come in and interview for. Some places are even offering a $50 bonus just to come in and fill out an application.

    It suddenly hit home with the Biden administration that one of the reasons was the masking mandate that was not following the science to begin with. Of course, another and possibly more important reason is the fact that when you pay people to not work they won't. This is the effect of the ill advised and mismanaged covid relief bill recently passed which extended unemployment payments until September.

    Of course both Biden and his press secretary have said that if people turn down valid work they won't get unemployment but anybody who had ever drawn unemployment knows that the authorities have no way to really control this and never even check for it. It's just too easy to game the system.

    Still, by revising the mask mandates immediately they could correct one aspect of the problem so that's basically why overnight the CDC made the change in policy for fully vaccinated citizens. It has nothing to do with the science since that had not changed at all for some time.

    It's a belated effort to get more businesses back up and running, encourage more people to go back to work, and finally to encourage even more people to get vaccinated.

    Cheers
    Last edited by Forward Observer; May 16, 2021 at 04:34 AM. Reason: clarity
    Artillery brings dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl!

  11. #591
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
    Moderator Emeritus

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Chania, Greece
    Posts
    24,756

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Quote Originally Posted by Forward Observer View Post
    You should be made aware that your calculations are a bit off. The problem is that most people don't understand what 95% efficacy actually means. It does not mean that 5% will still get infected.
    Cheers
    I read a scientific paper about it. What 90% efficacy means is that if you have a 1.3% chance to get CoVID, it goes down by 90% to 0.13%. However, for all intents and purposes of my calculations, the 90% is the protection you get in case you come in contact with CoVID in a case you would get infected which is an assumption but not much off.
    What I mean is that if 10000 people that now have CoVID were vaccinated by Moderna when they came in contact with the disease, 9000 of them would not develop CoVID (that time - they may have caught the disease later).

    One could argue that my assumption assumes 100% chance to get covid if you come in contact with it, but that's not true.


    The problems that study showcases, which I plan to show in a thread sometime, is that we don't know the chance of unvaccinated infection. Pfizer claims 90% at 0.9% chance to get CoVID (i.e. the chance to catch it drops to about 0.1%) Astrazeneca claimed 75% ... at 1.8% chance to get covid! I.e. with Astra Zeneca, the chance to get covid was 0.45% and they said "Nice, that's 75%"
    However, if we apply Pfizer's 0.9%, then Astrazeneca goes at 50% efficacy.
    That said, we cannot apply Pfizer's 0.9% to Astrazeneca, because it was different populations thus quite different chance for covid infections. Astrazeneca was called out and lowered their efficacy to 65% or something.


    Anyway, my point here is: I took efficacy into account when I made the prediction and then pushed the prediction downwards because I did rough calculations and because USA has higher spread rates, thus higher original chance, so the vaccines are a bit more efficient and because as the disease retreats, the chance to come into contact with a sick person is lower.


    TL;DR:
    I took efficacy into account and
    So the CDC in just the last few day totally reversed the vaccinated guidelines policy--prompted by the administration of course.
    is Biden's big mistake that will cost 10000 lives. The CDC was right to be hesitant to reverse, but political pressure and arm-twisting led them to condemn 10000 people to die needlessly from CoVID.

    It is exactly that pressure I am commenting on here. It is not against the science, it is very, very dangerous to tell people to throw the masks and resume activities.
    Last edited by alhoon; May 16, 2021 at 05:14 AM.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
    "Angry Uncle Gordon" describes me well.
    _______________________________________________________
    Beta-tester for Darthmod Empire, the default modification for Empire Total War that does not ask for your money behind patreon.
    Developer of Causa Belli submod for Darthmod, headed by Hammeredalways and a ton of other people.
    Developer of LtC: Random maps submod for Lands to Conquer (that brings a multitude of random maps and other features).

  12. #592
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Colfax WA, neat I have a barn and 49 acres - I have 2 horses, 15 chickens - but no more pigs
    Posts
    16,794

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    @ Alhoon but you are playing with the infection numbers not the sever illness to hospitalization to death numbers which are all of them (the vaccines) vary much orders of magnitude lower than the front infection number (as is the potential to transmit). I don't where you live. And I will admit that on a road to pick up my son college last month WA was pretty solid in both mask wearing and doing it effectively and business enforcement of it. By comparison in SE Idaho where I live use and use proper never got above 30%. I going to randomly speculate the same could likely be said of a lot of the US. The simple fact mask wearing became politicized I rather see focus on getting people shots that worrying about a admittedly useful public health measure that has become a political virtue signalizing item and will simply not be used in sufficient and effective ways in the USA.
    Last edited by conon394; May 17, 2021 at 07:13 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  13. #593
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Bayou country
    Posts
    3,717

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Border agents seized enough fentanyl to kill every person in New York State. This represents only a fraction of what has actually gotten through due to loose enforcement. The cartels are getting rich under Xiden. Has anyone seen his border czar?

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...il-over-april/

  14. #594
    Indefinitely Banned
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    lala
    Posts
    4,273

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    Border agents seized enough fentanyl to kill every person in New York State. This represents only a fraction of what has actually gotten through due to loose enforcement. The cartels are getting rich under Xiden. Has anyone seen his border czar?

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...il-over-april/
    I have to agree with BW here. Breitbart is for idiots.

  15. #595

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    @Alhoon

    Once again, according to the link I posted, both the Moderna and the Pfizer vaccines scored a 94-95% efficacy in their trials and not 90% Those are the main two vaccines that have been used in the US. Here are the direct quotes from the site I linked that plainly states that the actual rate of infection is .04% after being vaccinated. .04% is 4/100ths of a percent. The lifting of the mask mandate is only for those people who have been vaccinated. They don't show the actual math to get that percent but I am assuming that may be due to a lot complexities they don't have the space to present.

    One common misunderstanding is that 95% efficacy means that in the Pfizer clinical trial, 5% of vaccinated people got COVID. But that's not true; the actual percentage of vaccinated people in the Pfizer (and Moderna) trials who got COVID-19 was about a hundred times less than that: 0.04%.
    That's 40 people per 100,000 who may get covid or 400 per million. Regardless, the current average death rate per infection is only .66% which works out to 2.64 people per million.(0.66% of 400) The death rate due to the disease has fallen since the start of the pandemic as explained here.

    https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/89750

    The average death rate used came from this link

    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327

    This explanation comes up with .05% or 500 people per million who will get the disease. They do mention a time period of 3 months.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...inkback-header

    Using either number of people who will contract the disease per million multiplied times the death rate.

    400 infections per million x .66% death rate=2.64 deaths per million
    500 infections per million x .66% death rate=3.3 deaths per million


    Right now we have 122 million people who have been vaccinated. Using the numbers above (3.3 deaths per M x 122 M) only 402 of those vaccinated run the risk of death if they catch the disease after taking off their masks.

    That's 402 people and not 10,000 out of those who have been vaccinated. Even if you multiply my total by 10 contacts you still get less that half the number you came up with.

    The first link doesn't use any sort of metric that looks at how many times one comes in contact with someone who has the disease so maybe that's not a factor to consider or it's factored in already. The second link that came up with .05% did mention that the trials were over a 3 month period.

    Out of a million people, 8697 are going to die from all causes annually anyway so 3.3 deaths more per million is a pretty acceptable number if we can get back to work and start functioning again as a working economy.

    Even if we use your number of 10,000 and divide that by the 122 million that have been inoculated that's only 88 deaths per million so even that number could be acceptable.

    The point is that there are all kind of risk assessments that have to be made to go about our everyday lives. We could for example reduce the Interstate speed limits in the US down from 70 to 30 miles per hour and save maybe 30,000 lives of the 37,000 killed each year but could we still function as a working economy? Probably not.

    Cheers

    P.S.

    I finally found a good explanation of how the efficacy rate is established. The example given was for some 44,361 people who were in the trials for the Pfizer vaccine. It wasn't that complex at all.

    Half were given a placebo and half were given the vaccine.

    The half given the vaccine had an infection rate of 8 people or 0.04%
    The half given the placebo had and infection rate of 162 people or 0.74%

    That's a 0.7 % reduction for those vaccinated (0.74% minus 0.04%)

    Efficacy is calculated as follows

    A 0.7% reduction for those vaccinated divided by the non-vaccinated rate 0.74% or (0.7%/0.74%) = .9459 or 95% rounded off.

    The point is that a 95% efficacy does not mean that you only have a 95% chance of not being infected as you claimed in your initial post. The rate of infection is either 0.04% or 0.05% according to who one listens to. That means your chance of not being infected is 99.96% or 99.95% around 14 days after being fully vaccinated with either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines. Multiply that by the current average death rate from covid and the numbers are quite small like I indicated above.

    Here's the link

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/13/l...-efficacy.html
    Last edited by Forward Observer; May 16, 2021 at 08:28 PM. Reason: fix links
    Artillery brings dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl!

  16. #596
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
    Moderator Emeritus

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Chania, Greece
    Posts
    24,756

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    I am aware of what you're saying but you ignore a key issue: According to Pfizer the chance to get covid without a vaccine was taken as 0.74%. I know how efficacy was calculated, I read scientific papers about it.
    The 0.74% figure that dropped to 0.04% reflects "how many have got the virus". I.e. Pfizer went by "by the time of my report, out of a 22150 people, 0.74% got Covid."
    But to use that figure in future calculations implies that the chance to get covid remains at 0.74%. Which is not true as it is very much affected by how many have covid etc.


    To put it simply: Without the Vaccine, you have according to Pfizer's studies, 0.74% had chance to get covid in a period of time (I think 40-50 weeks?).
    With the Vaccine (according to Pfizer's early predictions) you had 0.04% chance to get Covid in the same period of time.
    HOWEVER that implicitly assumes a 0.74% chance to catch Covid when you're not vaccinated.
    Without the Vaccines, that 0.74% would grow to 1% then to 2% then 5% then to 10% then to 25% etc.

    That's why they present efficacy. Because the "Chance to catch covid unvaccinated" (or vaccinated) is always changing and it heavily depends on how you live and how spread Covid is in your area.
    Efficacy shows you how much the chance to catch covid drops for the vaccinated people.


    What I mean is that the chance to get virus is there. Yes, not every unvaccinated person would catch CoVID. Vaccines would slow down the infections and all.
    But thanks to Biden's new rules, the redaction would be slower.

    There are also several other issues with what you present.
    - The death ratio is frankly, currently unknown
    - As more people participated, Pfizer and Moderna had to downgrade their early figures for efficacy


    please please, ignore Biden's hasty "victory achieved" policies and wear your mask until the cases in your area drop significantly

    Even the NYT article points out some issues.
    Just check the numbers: Applying it to the whole population of USA with 0.74% chance = 2.5 million cases. But USA has 33 million cases! Why? Because the 0.74% chance is not 'forever' is "for the 40 days of the study".
    Last edited by alhoon; May 18, 2021 at 09:40 AM.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
    "Angry Uncle Gordon" describes me well.
    _______________________________________________________
    Beta-tester for Darthmod Empire, the default modification for Empire Total War that does not ask for your money behind patreon.
    Developer of Causa Belli submod for Darthmod, headed by Hammeredalways and a ton of other people.
    Developer of LtC: Random maps submod for Lands to Conquer (that brings a multitude of random maps and other features).

  17. #597

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    @Alhoon

    I'm not ignoring any key issue----the point you are ignoring is that the mask mandate is only being lifted for those who have been fully vaccinated. There is little chance of a vaccinated person catching, much less spreading, the disease. Consequently the now 123 million Americans who have been vaccinated run very little risk (4/100 of a percent from the trials Pfizer trials) of becoming infected. I thought the Moderna was the same but it appears to now have an 86% efficacy.

    Of course those numbers could be higher based on the unvaccinated rate being higher than the trials. Let's say for example that the Pfizer is 10x higher or 4/10ths of a percent for those vaccinated.

    Thus we get .4% times a million or 4000 people times a .66% fatality rate which equals 26.4 people who will die per million. Remember if the trials are of any significance, that number is closer to 2.6 people per million.

    I posted two different links pertaining to the current estimated average death rate so contrary to your claim that we don't know what it is, we can still estimate it with the current stats.

    Also remember that 8697 people per million die each year already from all causes. 26.4 people more is just not a significant factor when calculating risk aversion.

    I can't speak to those who still have not been vaccinated, but basically the mask mandates still remains in effect for them.

    I'm 75 years old, so I got the vaccine back in February right after the frontline workers and nursing home residents. However, I also do about 10 miles everyday on a mountain bike (weather permitting) and I have never worn a mask when biking since I was simply not coming closer than 5 or more meters to any other people. However, occasionally I still see this same other biker out riding while wearing a mask but no helmet. This has to be the epitome of stupidity. I guess it's not any more stupid than the people I see alone driving in their car while also wearing a mask. Unfortunately, it seems that now wearing a mask for many has become a psychological crutch.

    Biden has not declared any sort of victory with relaxing the mask mandates for vaccinated people. Most stores and businesses still require masks for any who want to enter because they do not have the capacity to check or know who has and who has not been vaccinated. I still wear a mask then due to the store's rules and out of courtesy to others.

    The only science that now says otherwise is the "political" science of authoritarian bureaucracy. People like our own prominent bureaucratic mouthpiece--Dr. Fauci who should have been fired months ago. The lady who is now the CDC head has been lying her teeth off from day one but then she's just another incompetent sycophantic bureaucrat appointed by Joe Biden. I've already given my opinion of his administration's unbound incompetence.

    Look, I don't think either of us are experts on this matter and we could debate the numbers for hours on end, but we can still use a little common sense to analyze the information available and form our own opinions. I'm just choosing a more optimistic side of the equation.

    At my age, I realize that I'm not bulletproof like I thought I was when I was 25 or 30. However, at the same time, I've had a good run so I've learn to not live in fear of the alternative.

    Cheers
    Last edited by Forward Observer; May 18, 2021 at 03:17 PM. Reason: grammar and clarity
    Artillery brings dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl!

  18. #598
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
    Moderator Emeritus

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Chania, Greece
    Posts
    24,756

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    Quote Originally Posted by Forward Observer View Post
    Also remember that 8697 people per million die each year already from all causes. 26.4 people more is just not a significant factor when calculating risk aversion.
    That's 26.4 people per million each month though. The 0.74% was not "per year". It was "during the 40 days trial" and when they conducted these trials, the numbers of infected people were much less, which means that 0.74% is higher now.

    Quote Originally Posted by Forward Observer View Post
    I posted two different links pertaining to the current estimated average death rate so contrary to your claim that we don't know what it is, we can still estimate it with the current stats.
    The death rate estimations are not accurate though. But that's not my point. My point is that the 95% efficacy is not as concrete as you may think.
    Furthermore, the chance to get Covid if you're vaccinated is not 0.04% without any kind of mask.
    It is "5% chance of the chance to catch Covid in the first place". This means that to enjoy that 0.04% chance you have to take care and wear a mask. Else, it is not 0.04%, it is higher.

    Example:
    If you pass next to someone that has covid and he coughs... you have a 1-2% chance to get Covid if you have the vaccine and instead of 30%-40% chance. That's what the Vaccine does. It divides the chance to get covid by 20. I.e. 100% becomes 5%, 50% becomes 2.5% and 0.74% becomes 0.04%.

    If you drink from the cup of someone with covid, you may well catch covid, vaccine or not.
    If you enter the train without a mask next to three people with covid that are coughing, you have a high chance to catch covid, vaccine or not.

    Being vaccinated and being moderately careful, means you have that 0.04% chance to get covid every 40 days. Being vaccinated and going carefree to bars and theatres and visiting your covid-sick relatives in hospitals has a much higher chance, because it is living dangerously*.

    Also, let me add another key issue: The variants. We still don't know how efficient the vaccines are against the variants.


    I still see this same other biker out riding while wearing a mask but no helmet.
    *Well, living dangerously but not as dangerously as that guy. I agree with you.

    Speaking of helms, let's discuss about a different example:
    Wearing a helmet and pads etc when you bike is good. That's like being vaccinated. Now, being thus protected, would you carefree go over an oil spill? Just because your helmet and pads would probably save you from any injury due to fall?
    I guess you would not. It is good to have the helm and pads in case you don't see the oil spill but you would still try to avoid it.

    And Biden more or less said: "People with helms and pads! Feel free to ride through spilled oil pools on the road! You have nothing to fear, because even if you fall, you will not get hurt!"
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
    "Angry Uncle Gordon" describes me well.
    _______________________________________________________
    Beta-tester for Darthmod Empire, the default modification for Empire Total War that does not ask for your money behind patreon.
    Developer of Causa Belli submod for Darthmod, headed by Hammeredalways and a ton of other people.
    Developer of LtC: Random maps submod for Lands to Conquer (that brings a multitude of random maps and other features).

  19. #599

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    The trials were not just for 40 days but at least for 90 days according to one of the links I posted but that may be irrelevant anyway. Correction: according to the dates I found, Pfizer started in May with the first of 3 phases done globally with only a few hundred then gradually added more with each phase to get to the 44k that was the final total. The last of the 2nd doses did not happen to a majority until November. That means that the trials must have stretched over 6 to 7 months. The infections of 8 people for the inoculated and 162 people for the placebo group appear to have happened over that period with most at the tail end.

    The point I want to make is that efficacy does not establish a monthly or periodic additional infection which you keep trying to indicate that it does. Vaccines simply don't appear to work that way. The word immunization stems from the word immune.

    If you inoculate 22,000 people and only 8 get covid then that's pretty much it after 6 or 6 months. Theoretically the rest are now immune to the virus--at least for a period much longer than just a month. There's not going to be 8 more per month forever. Now, for those taking the placebo it might be a different story. Nowhere in the documentation I have read for the trials does it mention that the rates of infection after inoculation are periodic. They are pretty much a one time or at least of a limited time factor.


    Here is the the most telling element of your very first post

    Mask removals and rubbing shoulders in USA:
    The big mistake of Biden, that will cost several thousands of lives. With a good vaccine, you have 80%-90% or so chance to not be infected when exposed to Covid. Sounds good right?
    Well, if you're exposed to Covid five times the chance to not be infected is 0.9^5 = 60%. Still good, right?
    Well, while it is still good, it means that if you're an idiot like Bidet suggests and walk around with no mask and go to theatres etc etc you still have a good chance to get infected. And you will infect others. Sure, it will slow down (weekly cases drop by about 15%-20%) but not as much as if Bidet was not idiotically throwing the mask away and saying "socialize, we're done".
    First, as previously stated, you seem to ignore that the reversal of the masking mandate was only for those who have been fully inoculated. These are people who theoretically will not resist getting infected other than a small number of people--nor will they infect anyone else.

    Then your next statement makes it appear that you had no idea what efficacy meant at the time. You don't even use the word but instead just used the percentage of 90% as a raw chance. A 90% efficacy does not mean that your chances of not being infected are 90% as you stated initially.

    Using the Pfizer trials to back into a 90% efficacy would simply now mean that 16 people or .08% rather than .04% actual out of the 21,830 vaccinated would have contracted the disease. This means that only .08% of those vaccinated would have been infected and 99.92% who would not have infected. There is no scientific basis whatsoever to think that .08% more would get infected the next month and every month after. This is double what was in the example before, but I also gave an example if the number was multiplied by 10 which to keep the same efficacy would also mean ten times the number in the placebo group. That would seem to cover a pretty high infection rate over all but still with a acceptable death toll.

    As stated before, when one gets immunized some percentage are theoretically immune to infection for a substantial period of time no matter how many times they are exposed---sometimes forever--as say in the polio vaccine.

    The percentage of the people in the trials who contracted the disease after inoculation are theoretically a one time statistic for that particular group. Of course the percentage established will eventually apply to all who get innoculated but it should remain an overall percentage and not a monthly number of brand new infections for the same group of people.

    Of course some vaccines wear off with time. That's why we get a flu vaccine each year and those vaccines are adjusted year to year to cover new strains. We don't really know that right now about Covid. Maybe annually, but hopefully, maybe never again. Of course, who knows what the CCP will come up with in the future to give to the world. Still, nobody is getting vaccinated for the Spanish flu or Sars these days--at least not that I'm aware of.

    If we are to believe your hypothesis of infection then we have to get innoculated every few months to be safe and I'm pretty sure that is simply not the case.

    If you can't accept any of this then let's just agree that we disagree.

    Cheers

    P.S. Here's some info on how long they think the immunity will last. They do mention that the efficacy might be adjusted at some point in the future.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article...id-19-vaccine/

    pertinent quote

    How long does the immune memory last?
    It’s hard to say at this point, because the clinical trials weren’t set up to answer that question, and in any case, they only began dispensing second doses of the vaccine four months ago. The WHO says that a minimum of six months would be acceptable. It will become clearer as time marches on and the volunteers continue to be monitored. Sahin says he expects protection to last “months or even years”. Given what we know about natural immunity that looks about right, says Eleanor Riley at the University of Edinburgh in the UK. She envisages people needing annual boosters, at worst.


    Last edited by Forward Observer; May 19, 2021 at 01:46 AM. Reason: grammar and clarity, also add Post Script
    Artillery brings dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl!

  20. #600

    Default Re: President Biden's 100 first days in office

    I saw a Ben Garrison cartoon using the "Xiden" moniker. So we have a genuine Garrison fan here, it seems. Which is hilarious.
    Optio, Legio I Latina

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •