President Biden's first term in office

[Coughdrop addict]

In case anyone was wondering why the right has been so furious and pushing the 'dementia' lie so hard:

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/us-...gdp-g7-nations

The United States economy grew faster than any other large advanced economy last year — by a wide margin — and is on track to do so again in 2024.
Why it matters: America's outperformance is rooted in its distinctive structural strengths, policy choices, and some luck. It reflects a fundamental resilience in the world's largest economy that is easy to overlook amid the nation's problems.
By the numbers: U.S. GDP looks to have grown 2.5% in 2023, according to the IMF's hot-off-the-presses World Economic Outlook, the highest among the G7 economies (Japan was second at 1.9%).

• IMF economists forecast similarly best-in-class growth this year, with 2.1% U.S. growth (second place: Canada at 1.4%).

State of play: All countries were dealing with the same problems of post-pandemic inflation and high interest rates meant to combat it. But the U.S. managed to achieve solid growth in spite of those headwinds.

• Strong growth in the U.S. labor force was one factor — both due to more Americans choosing to enter the workforce and a surge in immigration.
• The U.S. also experienced strong productivity growth fueled by an innovative corporate sector and, Biden administration officials argue, big federal investments in infrastructure and manufacturing capacity.

Not only that, but the fact that President Biden has steered the nation and the world away from the recession republicans were desperately hoping for has broken their hearts:

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/30/imf...rowth-forecast

Gone are the gloomy warnings of an imminent global recession. Economists at the International Monetary Fund see improving results, on both inflation and growth, compared with just a few months ago.
Why it matters: The world survived the great inflation shock better than many had anticipated. Price pressures have receded, and high interest rates didn't crush global activity.

• Now central banks are turning an eye toward lowering those interest rates — possibly further relieving any lingering strain on the global economy.

Driving the news: The IMF says the global economy will likely grow 3.1% this year, with a similar rate of growth in 2025, according to its latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday morning.

• The 2024 growth is a slight upgrade (of 0.2 percentage points) from what forecasters anticipated in October, thanks to resilience in the U.S. economy and stronger activity in developing and emerging market nations.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Back on earth, 2/3 of Democrats wish Biden weren’t the nominee, half wish he were primaried by a better candidate, and voters favor Trump over Biden on the economy by 20 points. On immigration, the margin is 30 points.

https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...l_2424-release

[Coughdrop addict]

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...-biden-1869763

So when you say "Earth" you mean "deep red state rural areas with more cows than people" correct?

Also: https://www.newsweek.com/bidenomics-...states-1865405

Inflation has slowed. The unemployment rate at 3.7 percent has dropped to its lowest level in decades and last year the economy grew by 2.5 percent. On Wednesday, the private sector added more than 100,000 jobs while wages also went up, according to research institute ADP, both slower than in previous months but a signal that the economy was achieving a soft landing. This is the scenario where the Federal Reserve's hiking of rates helped cool inflation without doing too much damage to the economy.

It's very telling how upon hearing good economic news the right's first response is to vehemently deny it.

[Coughdrop addict]

https://apnews.com/article/hunter-bi...a4b8841ce2689b

WASHINGTON (AP) — An FBI informant has been charged with fabricating a multimillion-dollar bribery scheme involving President Joe Biden, his son Hunter and a Ukrainian energy company, a claim that is central to the Republican impeachment inquiry in Congress.
Alexander Smirnov falsely reported to the FBI in June 2020 that executives associated with the Ukrainian energy company Burisma paid Hunter and Joe Biden $5 million each in 2015 or 2016, prosecutors said in an indictment. Smirnov told his handler that an executive claimed to have hired Hunter Biden to “protect us, through his dad, from all kinds of problems,” according to court documents.
Prosecutors say Smirnov in fact had only routine business dealings with the company in 2017 and made the bribery allegations after he “expressed bias” against Joe Biden while he was a presidential candidate.

Will anyone be surprised when it turns out Smirnov is on Putin's payroll?

[alhoon]

Less than 9 months to the elections. Check the states that Biden won by less than 5% in 2020 (you can see who they were here: https://www.270towin.com/ )
and check the polling data from them here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...024/wisconsin/

Most of them are slowly turning to Trump. It is not set in stone of course, and there could be mistakes. But there's an undeniable trend that Biden is losing votes in the places he needs them the most.
Even if not all the polls favoring Trump are correct... he still seems poised to take 270 easier than Biden.

Add to this that Trump Favorability is 43% at the moment while Biden's is less than 40%
Trump's scandals don't seem to weigh him down as the Democrat Lawfare continues. Biden's missteps are costing him though.

[alhoon]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/big-chang...163929278.html

The New York Times say it this time. And they give numbers.
Things are bad for Biden right now. Yes, there's time to correct the course and yes, Trump's legal issues may block him from running. But since I started saying "things are not good for Biden" 4 months ago, things have actually got worse for Biden.

There are posters that think Biden has been awesome from democrats' perspective. Well, many democrats disagree. But it's not like Democrats are going to vote for TRUMP, not enough to turn the election compared to 2020 anyway.

BUT:
"Overall, 19% of registered voters in the Times/Siena survey have an unfavorable view of both candidates — a group sometimes referred to as “double haters.” These voters say they backed Biden by a 3-to-1 margin among those who voted in 2020, but now he holds the support of less than half."

It was 19%, 3-to-1. So about 15% to 4% in 2020.
Now, it is "less than half." Let's say that is 9% and 10% for Trump. That's a 6% increase, in total votes for Trump at this point. Let's assume many will return to Biden, turning this from 15/4 to 12% / 7%

Weeeell... In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin, Pensylvannia, Arizona and another state I forget by less than 1.5%. And Biden's numbers would reasonably be 3% less if the election was held right now.
And that means, Trump would have won all those states. Which means Trump would have won the election. Barely (like 272 electors or something, I don't remember off the top of my head), but he would have won.

[Coughdrop addict]

I think things will align themselves in Biden and Democrat's favor as the election draws closer for three big reasons:

-The Republicans have basically already run the 2024 campaign and have no ammo left. They tried their Hunter Biden smears and failed. They tried to shut down the government and failed. They tried to impeach Biden with the testimony of Russian and Chinese agents and failed. They made a big deal about the "wide open border" and thanks to Trump's big mouth were exposed as having no interest in fixing the "problem". They have been lying nonstop about how bad the economy is and it is actually doing great. Plus there is just no way around the issues of abortion, Trump's criminality, and Trump's kowtowing to Putin for them.

-The only thing they have to run on is culture war nonsense that appeals to the base, but the party already has their vote regardless. They need moderates and as many right-leaning Democrats as they can get. And when their big talking points are a hysterical fear of trans people (who have no impact on the average American's everyday life), racist tirades about Hispanics poisoning the nation's pure white blood (as an aside many Americans know someone who is Hispanic and telling them their neighbor, friend, co-worker, or family member is a sub human who should be thrown out of the country is more likely to gain one an enemy and a black eye than a voter), and -of course- how the election was stolen from poor persecuted Trump and we all need to send him our money to dry his tears with; they are very unlikely to attract those two groups in any number.

-Not only is Biden far outpacing Trump in raising money for his campaign, but at least half of everything Trump has raised goes to his legal fees. He is out of money and now he is trying to take control of the RNC to strip it for salvage, which will cripple the Republican bid to take back the Senate.

[alhoon]

1 and 2 are true but... you overestimate, grossly, the role money plays in these elections. For the primaries, money matters a lot. For the general... not so much. After all, Trump gets free TV time because he can't let himself fall out of the new cycle for more than a couple of weeks.

[conon394]

1 and 2 are true but... you overestimate, grossly, the role money plays in these elections. For the primaries, money matters a lot. For the general... not so much. After all, Trump gets free TV time because he can't let himself fall out of the new cycle for more than a couple of weeks.

Money matters a lot in the General in terms of ground game and voter turn out etc. Hailey is not wrong the republicans are on the cusp of shooting themselves in the neck by letting Trump control the RNC and use it for his law fee piggy bank.

Also I see no reason to even read Times poll now. They are skewed in the questioning and demographic, and are heavily messaged via R. They exist as far as I can tell just to get click bait horse race headlines. I mean really there latest one wants to over 36% rural votes as even remotely valid? You what I think rural olds still answer their land line and for all their R work the NYT does care to adjust for that - because gosh than we loose a Biden is too old headline. I mean honestly Dean Phillips gets what over 10% - compared to his non existent numbers in the actual primary voting? Really they are just making stuff up its easy to do with R.

[alhoon]

Biden did better in the parts I watched from the State of the Union than I expected. Quite better. I also loved the "You can’t love your country only when you win.” quote.

[Pontifex Maximus]

also loved the "You can’t love your country only when you win.” quote.

The most ironic component of the night, since democrats have denied the legitimacy of ever election they have lost since the year 2000 with various Supreme Court cases and conspiracy theories.

Biden's speech was as predictable as it was awful. He called half of America Nazis, virtue signaled about the number 1 satanic sacrament of abortion and then lied about how badly his economy is going. The only thing Biden has going for him is at least he isn't Kamala Kackles Harris who despite saying nothing during the hour long propaganda spoon feeding speech nevertheless managed to still somehow come across as completely unlikable.

[Coughdrop addict]

https://newrepublic.com/post/179789/...-exit-strategy

Despite drumbeating for more than a year to impeach Joe Biden, House Republicans have quietly begun looking for an off-ramp in the face of an overwhelming lack of evidence against the president—and a rapidly shrinking majority in the chamber.
Republicans have accused Biden and his son Hunter of corruption and influence peddling, but their lengthy investigation has failed to turn up any proof of the president’s wrongdoing. In fact, the biggest criminal act revealed during the course of the probe was committed by the GOP’s own star witness, Alexander Smirnov. The Department of Justice has accused him of making up the allegations against the Biden family that jump-started the whole impeachment effort.

While their humiliation is a good start, Biden should now direct the DoJ to start investigating Comer and his fellows in the Putin caucus to find just how much they were being paid to do this.

[Lord Thesaurian]

The Democrats already demonstrated that you don’t need conclusive evidence to impeach a president. I haven’t seen any serious effort by Republicans to advance impeachment articles in the House anyway, but that should not be construed as exculpatory, given we already know Biden has lied repeatedly about having no knowledge of and no involvement in the family grift. Whether or not it’s specifically illegal to peddle political influence through family members is another matter.

[Coughdrop addict]

Trump's capacity for avoiding truth has even spread to his minions, as they deceive themselves trying to justify the ridiculous things they believe so they don't have to face the reality of Trump and their party's pathological dishonesty.

Trump got caught withholding over $400m in military aid to Ukraine in an attempt to extort Zelenskyy for a phony investigation of Hunter Biden, and later tried to overthrow the US Government. Impeachment was the least of what he deserved. He should have been charged with treason.

There was no "influence peddling". The Trump Criminal Cartel paid the Russian spy $600,000 to make up the slanderous and defamatory statements against Hunter Biden that he told to the FBI. E. Jean Carroll's settlement should be loose change compared to Hunter's lawsuit. The whole world saw what they did to him. Comer, Jordan and many others need to be named as co-defendants.

[alhoon]

Trump's capacity for avoiding truth has even spread to his minions, as they deceive themselves trying to justify the ridiculous things they believe so they don't have to face the reality of Trump and their party's pathological dishonesty.

Trump got caught withholding over $400m in military aid to Ukraine in an attempt to extort Zelenskyy for a phony investigation of Hunter Biden, and later tried to overthrow the US Government. Impeachment was the least of what he deserved. He should have been charged with treason.

There was no "influence peddling". The Trump Criminal Cartel paid the Russian spy $600,000 to make up the slanderous and defamatory statements against Hunter Biden that he told to the FBI. E. Jean Carroll's settlement should be loose change compared to Hunter's lawsuit. The whole world saw what they did to him. Comer, Jordan and many others need to be named as co-defendants.

Has Trump been found guilty in a court of law about these?

[Coughdrop addict]

No because laws only apply to those without the magic R next to their name.

He is clearly guilty though, and if he were anyone else would be at the very least spending the rest of his life in prison.

[Lord Thesaurian]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...o-deal-with-h/

Serious allegations. I wonder what “Russian connection” will be uncovered to discredit Bobulinski’s testimony.

https://oversight.house.gov/blog/wsj...ling-business/

Democrats responded with the usual deflection:

Democrats said the evidence suggests they should impeach Mr. Trump a third time.

Lol