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Thread: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

  1. #1
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Dear all, as a tangent of the USA elections, I would like to talk specifically about the polls.
    Here is a good an comprehensive analysis done after the fact, as news stations try to explain why the polls were wrong again. https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-the-p...234138787.html

    It covers what I had to say (reminder, I was saying those things for weeks ) very well, with one small but important difference:
    The Pollsters, the actual people that did the math not the reporters that reported on the results or the political analysts that based their prediction on the polls, were aware that their data were suspect. If you read between the lines of what pollsters and experienced politicians (including Biden's campaign!) were saying you would see that they were shaky.
    Many reporters wrote about how this is because of the 2016 spectrum, and to a point, they are right. However, that's up to a point.

    The pollsters got their models based on some assumptions that they were not 100% sure of and they were not hiding it. Just read how cautious 538 were about their predictions. They were always saying "We see Biden as +5 in Florida if our data is correct" but they were aware that the polling samples were not the best and that there were underlying assumptions.
    I.e. while for many reporters, pundits and people on the street the news that Trump increased his appeal with minorities was a surprise, for some people on the ground gathering the data it was not. It is just that many people ignored what didn't align with their vision.

    There were things like this that made the Biden Campaign, mistrust the headlines and made the serious pollsters cautious.
    But if you want to do your job, you can't adjust based on "gut feeling". You cannot simply say "We know that the people not picking up the phone are Trump voters". You have to prove it first. And it is hard to prove. So, you simply try to work around it by trying to make a better sample.
    But there are only so many ways you can skin a rabbit. The toolset is not infinite. As such, pollsters were aware that they could again be very wrong.

    Another issue is that people, even pundits and policy-makers do not know how to read polls well. Again, Biden's campaign had the advantage here; they knew the numbers were a bit too favorable to them. Biden himself is in this game for 40 years and knows that.
    Democrat senators? Nope, they were not aware and now they sit there looking for answers as to why they lost the elections.

    A great problem, in my opinion that is not in the article above with the polls is that they gave too much weight on race. This is especially jarring for people that claim they are not seeing skin color and treat all people the same.
    You see, a black person is not just a black person. He or she may also be religious. He or she will be low, middle or high income. He or she will own a business, be employed somewhere or be unemployed.
    It was foolish to think that the race-tainted summer would push minorities towards Biden. A black shopkeeper that has his store looted will be angry at the protesters. A religious Latina that is shocked and appalled by free abortions would vote for Pence despite Trump saying mean things about some other Latinos once a while. A Middle-Easterner caring about his employment prospects in the post-lockdown era would look more favorably to Trump.
    I am not talking about single-issue voters here. On the contrary, I am talking about pundits treating minority voters as single-issue voters and that issue being race.


    So, what do you think?
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    Sir Adrian's Avatar the Imperishable
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    The average voter does not generally answer polls, only the hardliners do, and because the MSM is biased, it naturally tended twoards polling the democratic hardliners more than the republican hardliners.
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    The average voter does not generally answer polls, only the hardliners do, and because the MSM is biased, it naturally tended twoards polling the democratic hardliners more than the republican hardliners.
    Not really, no. Polls conducted for Fox News or even by the Republican campaigns were showing a pro-Biden bias. The Republicans did not expect to make inroads on the house and were worried about several senate races that weren't even close.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
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    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    You're wrong alhoon. Wrong.

    As everyone now recognises media polling was election interference... in the truest sense of that word (sic)... by powerful special interests... these...s.. really phony polls - I have to call them phony polls... fake polls - were designed to keep our voters... at home create the illusion of momentum... for... Mr Biden... and diminish Republican's ability to raise funds. They were what's called "suppression polls" everyone knows that now.
    Everyone knows.
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Who the hell said that? Speaking about the validity of the polls, Showing Biden at +10 to +15 would DISSUADE some Democrats from going to vote, considering they had this in the bag. Happened in 2016.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Oops forgot to mention. Donald Trump, about an hour ago.

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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    Oops forgot to mention. Donald Trump, about an hour ago.
    :/ Should have guessed. Nobody else talks as much crap with as much confidence like the outgoing (probably) president of the USA.

    If I reply to this: "As everyone now recognizes media polling was election interference... [...] knows that now" with
    "OK Boomer" am I an ageist?
    Last edited by alhoon; November 06, 2020 at 12:37 AM.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
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    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Now that we have a few more votes counted...

    At the same time as the remaining states are drifting towards Biden since election day, his lead over Trump in the total vote count has grown from 1% to close to 3%.

    With only about 65% of California counted, where Biden is sitting on 65%, and a bunch of other declared Biden states with decent numbers of votes still to count (New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland etc), and most of the declared Trump states almost finished their counts, I think we're likely to see the gap between Biden and Trump continue to open.

    (Without doing the math) I'm not thinking it will make it to 4%, but if Biden does end up with 300+ electors, and a 6 million vote lead overall, it does start to appear more in line with some of the pre-election predictions.

    The poll averages have tended to hover in the 5-8% range for most of the year with plenty of outliers either side, which means they've definitely over estimated in line with your post alhoon. But I think when it settles, we're going to see that they over estimated by 2-4% rather than 6-8.

    And yes, you're being ageist.
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    The poll averages have tended to hover in the 5-8% range for most of the year with plenty of outliers either side, which means they've definitely over estimated in line with your post alhoon. But I think when it settles, we're going to see that they over estimated by 2-4% rather than 6-8.
    You mean, more or less like my estimation?
    4% overestimation of Biden is not bad. Put in the secret Trump vote (The ones saying they will vote for Biden and changing their minds / the ones that lied) and you are at 2-3% overestimation. Then add in the Trumpeteers that think the whole media are an evil empire so they don't reply to pollsters and you get down to 0-1% overestimation.

    And again, before you say pollsters corrected for the "they didn't answer the phone". The correction HAS TO BE along the lines of what you see in the numbers, not your gut feeling. Else you're reading tea-leaves.
    Pollsters cannot say "And we know these are Trump's voters". All they can do is include more of the demographics that are expected to tell pollsters "#### off" so that they will get some of them to answer. I.e. if you expect that 10% of white unemployed blue-collar workers are going to tell you to bugger off, you add more of them to your demographics. Sure, the Blue-collars that will answer the phone are MORE LIKELY to be Biden's white unemployed Blue-collar workers but that's the BEST you can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    And yes, you're being ageist.
    OK boomer. <=== Joke
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    Who the hell said that? Speaking about the validity of the polls, Showing Biden at +10 to +15 would DISSUADE some Democrats from going to vote, considering they had this in the bag. Happened in 2016.
    I thought so too. But then I figured: I come from a country with mandatory preferential voting and where everyone who attends the voting booth gets a free sausage sandwich, so what would I know about the things that keep people from voting?

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    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    What country still has mandatory voting?
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
    "Angry Uncle Gordon" describes me well.
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    Miles
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Australia. Also you say that like that practice is getting rarer.

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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    I find the idea of mandatory voting unacceptable, but I appreciate having learned the term "democracy sausage". The internet also tells me that North Korea has mandatory voting, although with a slight twist - there is only one candidate on the ballot for each office.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


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    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    I find the idea of mandatory voting unacceptable, but I appreciate having learned the term "democracy sausage". The internet also tells me that North Korea has mandatory voting, although with a slight twist - there is only one candidate on the ballot for each office.
    In Australia's case it was ironic. Until surprisingly recently it was only mandatory for White Australians. For indigenous Australians it was optional, or not allowed or any number of other ambiguous combinations of abusive confusion. But that's a story for another thread and another day.
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Quote Originally Posted by Swiss Army Cheese View Post
    Australia. Also you say that like that practice is getting rarer.
    We used to have mandatory voting up to 10-15 years ago in Greece. I remember cause I had to get a note from the police that I was away from my voting district for studies, else I would have to go all the way back home to vote.
    Nowdays, I simply moved my voting rights to where I live so problem solved. As such, BRING BACK MANDATORY VOTING!
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
    "Angry Uncle Gordon" describes me well.
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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    People underestimate racism. It’s ubiquitous. Like this thread.

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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    You'd want competent racists, not scam artists.
    Eats, shoots, and leaves.

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    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    Humans love scam artists. Is what it is. Meh

  19. #19

    Default Re: A good analysis of why the polls underestimated Trump again

    An interesting article regarding this very topic appeared in the news just today:
    Dem pollsters acknowledge ‘major errors’ in 2020 polling - POLITICO

    … from which we learn:

    A group of top Democratic Party pollsters are set to release a public statement Tuesday acknowledging “major errors” in their 2020 polling — errors that left party officials stunned by election results that failed to come close to expectations in November.In an unusual move, five of the party’s biggest polling firms have spent the past few months working together to explore what went wrong last year and how it can be fixed. It’s part of an effort to understand why — despite data showing Joe Biden well ahead of former President Donald Trump, and Democrats poised to increase their House majority — the party won the presidency, the Senate and House by extremely narrow margins.


    […]


    The memo floats at least three possible causes: late movement toward Trump and Republican candidates that polls conducted in the run-up to the election failed to catch, the Covid pandemic causing people who stayed home to answer the phone at a greater rate than those who did not follow restrictions, and the decline of social trust and faith in institutions.
    Apparently not considered as a possible cause was that more people wanted to vote for Trump and did not want to vote for Biden than was generally presumed. But perhaps such a thought was regarded as too outré to warrant consideration.

    If desired, deeper analyses may be found here:
    https://www.aapor.org/Publications-M...mine-Poll.aspx
    And here:
    https://www.democracydocket.com/2021...21-and-beyond/

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