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Thread: IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy, Western Mouthpieces Conspicuously Silent

  1. #21
    antaeus's Avatar Whataboutery
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    Default Re: IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy, Western Mouthpieces Conspicuously Silent

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    I was exaggerating to make a point. The Chinese standard of living outside the major metropolises is a far cry from most of the average standard of living in economically trailing countries like Rich Korea, Sweden, or Switzerland. What I was trying to illustrate is that being first is meaningless if the prosperity of the average Joe, or average Liu in this case, comes second to macroeconomic indicators.
    I think this is a red herring.

    China is a country that is growing over the long term. Poverty is reducing in line with that growth in the long term. If there is still poverty, then that just means they have more growth do do. It should be understood that they're going to start from a poor place, and end up at a wealthier place.

    Absolute levels don't matter (with all due respect to the rural poor). What matters is the trend. Is the trend moving towards more poverty or less? Are less advantaged people's lives getting better over the long term?


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  2. #22
    Sir Adrian's Avatar the Imperishable
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    Default Re: IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy, Western Mouthpieces Conspicuously Silent

    No it's not. The Chinese economy is structured in a way that incentivizes immediate revenue, and immediate results so the party would look good, over long term investment. However, while this approach is indeed immensely profitable, automation does not wait for anyone and in 15-20 years time that Chinese worker who can assemble 60 iPhones per hour suddenly becomes unneeded. And it's not like China can automate its economy either. You can't pull 400 million jobs out of your ass in the span of 25 years, regardless of who you are.

    Investment in human resources is bad. Due to the way Chinese society is currently structured, very much like Romanian society in the 80s in fact, stats and numbers are more important than actual substance. Constructors and contractors are incentivized to cut corners, skimp on quality and generally focused on output over anything else. Dopctors are judged by number of patients treated, not by quality of care. Teachers are judged by class average not by general knowledge of the students. If you entire class gets top scores every year, if you finish that bridge in 1 week, if you build a city in 1 month you make the party look good, and you look good, and if you look good you advance further up the nomenclature. This is called tukhta, and it has gotten to such a level in China that students are expected to cheat in exams to get good grades and builders are expected to skimp on materials. In fact cheating in Chinese school is endemic. And you know what cheating and plagiarism today means? And extremely unskilled workforce tomorrow.

    And lets not even mention that large tracts of the economy still rely on fossil fuels with no signs of wanting to modernize or even a hint of the possibility to do so, as closing down the coal plants and other energy inefficient sectors would be bad for the party as it would create a lot of unemployment.

    The consumer market is extremely isolationist and focuses highly on foreign business creating jobs in China, rather than the other way around. Any perturbation in the parent economy will have a leverage effect in the Chinese economy. If the western economies take a hit and people stop buying the new iPhone, and apple suddenly has to close up several factories, you'll have several thousand families starve to death.

    Let's not forget what the 2008 crash did to China. The only reason it recovered is because it is a dictatorship where a human life is less important that a container of electronics.
    Last edited by Sir Adrian; October 21, 2020 at 09:38 PM.
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  3. #23
    antaeus's Avatar Whataboutery
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    Default Re: IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy, Western Mouthpieces Conspicuously Silent

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    No it's not. The Chinese economy is structured in a way that incentivizes immediate revenue, and immediate results so the party would look good, over long term investment. However, while this approach is indeed immensely profitable, automation does not wait for anyone and in 15-20 years time that Chinese worker who can assemble 60 iPhones per hour suddenly becomes unneeded. And it's not like China can automate its economy either. You can't pull 400 million jobs out of your ass in the span of 25 years, regardless of who you are.

    Investment in human resources is bad. Due to the way Chinese society is currently structured, very much like Romanian society in the 80s in fact, stats and numbers are more important than actual substance. Constructors and contractors are incentivized to cut corners, skimp on quality and generally focused on output over anything else. Dopctors are judged by number of patients treated, not by quality of care. Teachers are judged by class average not by general knowledge of the students. If you entire class gets top scores every year, if you finish that bridge in 1 week, if you build a city in 1 month you make the party look good, and you look good, and if you look good you advance further up the nomenclature. This is called tukhta, and it has gotten to such a level in China that students are expected to cheat in exams to get good grades and builders are expected to skimp on materials. In fact cheating in Chinese school is endemic. And you know what cheating and plagiarism today means? And extremely unskilled workforce tomorrow.

    And lets not even mention that large tracts of the economy still rely on fossil fuels with no signs of wanting to modernize or even a hint of the possibility to do so, as closing down the coal plants and other energy inefficient sectors would be bad for the party as it would create a lot of unemployment.

    The consumer market is extremely isolationist and focuses highly on foreign business creating jobs in China, rather than the other way around. Any perturbation in the parent economy will have a leverage effect in the Chinese economy. If the western economies take a hit and people stop buying the new iPhone, and apple suddenly has to close up several factories, you'll have several thousand families starve to death.

    Let's not forget what the 2008 crash did to China. The only reason it recovered is because it is a dictatorship where a human life is less important that a container of electronics.
    That's a nice well worded response. And I agree with all those problems you list. But your response doesn't address the most important part of the post it is responding to:

    The long term trend, is that China is growing. Not grown.
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  4. #24
    Gigantus's Avatar I am thinking more about running away now then I did as a kid, but by the time I put my teeth in, my glasses on and find my car keys I forget why I am going.
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    Default Re: IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy, Western Mouthpieces Conspicuously Silent

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    I was exaggerating to make a point.
    The only point you made is that you are willing to use ridiculous exaggeration instead of factual arguments to draw attention to your statement.

    It does quite a number on the credibility of any comment following your equivalent of shouting 'SEX' in a crowded room, especially if those comments are not referenced.




  5. #25

    Default Re: IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy, Western Mouthpieces Conspicuously Silent

    I've made this point before, but it could use repeating.

    If China was as wonderful and naturally superior as Exarch desperately wants us to believe, he wouldn't have to be here trying to make us believe that.

    To add to what Settra said, China also faces the same problems as any oligarchic dictatorship:

    -While in a western democracy the unexpected death of the leader is at worst a slight bump in the long run, with a clear line of succession and a military sworn to prevent power grabs, in a dictatorship the death of the leader often triggers a scramble for the throne that can easily lead to civil war, as happened often in China's history.

    -In a western democracy a bad leader is a temporary problem, with regular elections to remove incompetents or the unpopular greatly reducing the appeal of revolution. In a dictatorship the nation is often stuck with a bad leader, with revolution the ONLY way of getting rid of them.

  6. #26
    Sir Adrian's Avatar the Imperishable
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    Default Re: IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy, Western Mouthpieces Conspicuously Silent

    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantus View Post
    The only point you made is that you are willing to use ridiculous exaggeration instead of factual arguments to draw attention to your statement.
    Yes, it's called hyperbole: you make an obviously exaggerated claim to better underline the point. I did not expect for a second there was anybody here who would take 50% literacy rate seriously.

    I'm sorry you did not understand what I was trying to get across, I'll try to be less subtle next time.


    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    That's a nice well worded response. And I agree with all those problems you list. But your response doesn't address the most important part of the post it is responding to:

    The long term trend, is that China is growing. Not grown.
    China is growing today, that does not means China will be growing tomorrow. Trends are not good macroeconomic indicators because trends do not offer any guarantee. The mortgage market was growing in 2006, until it stopped.
    Last edited by Sir Adrian; October 22, 2020 at 07:23 AM.
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  7. #27
    Papay's Avatar Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy, Western Mouthpieces Conspicuously Silent


  8. #28
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy, Western Mouthpieces Conspicuously Silent

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    What I was trying to illustrate is that being first is meaningless if the prosperity of the average Joe, or average Liu in this case, comes second to macroeconomic indicators.
    Well, that's one way to look at it. But the communist way of looking at it puts the weight on the masses and the macroeconomic indicators.
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