Azerbaijan-Armenia war over Nagorno Karabakh

[PointOfViewGun]

@POVG
Mostly common sense.

Armenia has nothing to gain from a conflict in this particular moment. In terms of personnel and equipment they are overmatched (No russian army to back them up this time), their relations with Russia are at an all-time low so if they ask for help, they are either going to get ignored or it will come at the cost of a much greater russian influence in its internal affairs. Additionally, any goodwill left with the rest of the world as far as this conflict is concerted is going kaboom, if they are the aggressors.

Every side has something to gain. Russia gets to sell more weapons as each side is destroying their Russian made weapons. Azerbaijan gets to take back its own territory occupied by Armenia. Armenia gets to play the victim internationally just like they are now. Armenia knows that they can't win this conflict through force. It's obvious that Azerbaijan will not back away from its legal claim on its own territory. To justify Armenian occupation of not just Karabakh but of Azerbaijani territory larger than Karabakh itself they need to present Azerbaijan as the aggressor. Armenia has good support especially in France and USA due to Armenian diaspora, despite attempted or successful terror attacks from an Armenian group in either of these countries. Armenia could very well be trying to paint Azerbaijan as the aggressor and through the Turkish angle they might be hoping that a country like France will recognize Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

It has been said that information of terrorists from Syria transferred by Turkey to Azerbaijan is "Armenian propaganda".
Times article:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...ians-wz6cqjc57
Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rkeys-ambition
Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...source=twitter

This is yet an other embarrassing moment for journalism. It resembles the same kind of news making when the New York Times was reporting massacres of Armenians in remote Ottoman villages with no telegram infrastructure only a day or two after the incident allegedly happened. In this particular case a similar level of journalism standards are used. A few random Syrians make this claim and suddenly its enough to report it as a fact. There was a random footage of random people with rifles riding a dirty random pickup truck earlier as well. Any sensible journalist would now how senseless these claims are. Azerbaijan is in no need of fighters, especially poorly equipped poor fighters that don't speak their language. Moreover, to transform these pickups full of fighters to Azerbaijan they'd have to pass through Iran or Georgia. This is merely a show of lack of standards when anything Turkey is involved.

[ioannis76]

The CHP's deputy (the CHP is the main opposition party of Turkey) voiced the claims that Turkey is helping Azerbaijan with weapons and jihadists.

https://www.duvarenglish.com/diploma...to-azerbaijan/

Turkish gov’t slams main opposition deputy for voicing claim that Turkey sent jihadists to Azerbaijan

And the AKP deputy Chair Bulent Turan denied the claim, by... verifying it:

AKP Group Deputy Chair Bülent Turan said that the CHP is “unnational,” while asking, “Did the CHP become a party of Armenia?” “Our nation and the state stands with Azerbaijan no matter what the CHP says,” Turan said.

But I guess they were expressing their own personal opinions...

[Drtad]

@POVG
Mostly common sense.

Armenia has nothing to gain from a conflict in this particular moment. In terms of personnel and equipment they are overmatched (No russian army to back them up this time), their relations with Russia are at an all-time low so if they ask for help, they are either going to get ignored or it will come at the cost of a much greater russian influence in its internal affairs. Additionally, any goodwill left with the rest of the world as far as this conflict is concerted is going kaboom, if they are the aggressors.

The other aspect of this common sense is that Armenia and NKR are ok with the gunfire locators and observers on the border, but Azerbaijan is not (see the Royce-Engels proposals and the Chu amendment regarding these, I posted about them earlier). Of course, this is due to the fact that war is not a viable solution for Armenia and the NKR, but Azerbaijan is completely fine with war being a viable option. War should never be a viable option.

Also, regarding the Syrian jihadists - Azerbaijan has been using jihadists since the 90s to fight Armenia, so it is misleading to suggest that it's ridiculous for them to want to use them now. They used them in the 90s quite a bit.

https://web.archive.org/web/20160305...f-Global-Jihad

[dogukan]

I do not think there is ANY point in debating who started the conflict.
To any observer, it should be clear as day that this was a planned offensive of Azerbaijan. The propaganda in the early days that Armenia started it was to suddenly create a cause for a reaction to make sure everyone in their countries are on board.

I think the idea was that with Turkey's aid, especially through the UAV superiority, Azerbaijan would simply blitz into the area breaking various key positions and thrashing long established Armenians defences through the newly acquaired UAVs, giving a significant edge to Azerbaijan over the demographically dying poor Armenia. The simple idea of establishing facts on the ground that we can see everywhere in the world nowadays.
However, although there is a fog of war, that seems to have failed miserably. And the Soviet style warfare of both sides simply turned into a meat grinder where hundreds of 20-somethings died over exchange of a couple of mountain villages. In just 2-3 days. The amount of waste is crazy when you think about it.

I personally doubt the conflict will last long as the rest of the world intervenes. So it was a key part of the offensive to quickly take as many locations as possible before the defenses were mobilized. This seems to have failed so far but we will see. Time is not on the Turkish-side.

I believe this is far more for a political action of Turkey than Azerbaijan's strategy.
For those interested, let me give you a bunch of dots, connect them however you want.

1 - Azeri dictator had been cornered badly for some time now with increasing unrest in his country and loss of the youth the a more pro-West ideaology than the traditional Eurasianist stance. There's been a lot of movement while the corruption and repression in the country reached ridiculously annoying levels (not to mention the domino effects of such events like in Belarus). It's been known that flaring conflict with Armenia always works to suppress the opposition under a nationalist fervor.

2 - Erdoğan in Turkey has been losing ground left and right. His extreme nationalist coalition created with MHP and Eurasianist-militarists has been stuck for some time. The country is in a dire situation economically and people are honestly getting fed up with the same leadership talking the same bs everyday. This is why in the past few years Erdoğan has been increasingly feeding off of conflicts. With the new militarist-expansionist coalition his power rests on, he became far more eager to jump into an anti-western stance, against diplomacy.

- The first target were the Kurds in Syria. After a few victories which turned to him as nationalist votes, a status quo has been reached where even the Americans and Russians are at the edge of agreeing to something. The Kurds are rapidly headed towards some form of official recognition, which is, to be frank, a thing enough to drive Turkish nationalists to severe craze and bloodthirst. There is no way a government can explain the new status of Kurds in Syria to the kurd-hating public in Turkey.

- Along with the Eurasianist faction dominant in Navy, Turkey then went onto enforce a highly expansionist, maximalist strategy in the seas. Eurasianists agreed to back the political Islamists in Libya as Erdoğan lost any state entity as ally. The nationalist fervor that declared we will declare Libya in a week got stuck in Sirte after mocking Egypt, Haftar and France for a week. Ottoman ties to Libya were brought up from history while people talked about Libyan's being the successors of the Turkish janissaries that were there.

-Not to mention, a while back, Sudanese Islamist leader was ousted and Turkey's settling plans there went away along with that. Another defeat for the aggressive faction that needs a victory.

- Conflict with Greece suddenly flared up bringing the countries to the edge of war. The whole country was readied for a war mentally while the opportunity was taken to suppress and divide opposition, declaring any anti-war stance as treachery. Like I said, this is the new norm in Turkey, Erdoğan and Bahçeli needs the aggression to rule and legitimize their political positions as well as their arbitrary arrests as well as closings of institutions related to opposition. The West saw the bluff of Erdoğan this time and put it's weight behind Greece. Another retreat, another let down for the war-hungry nationalist public.

Meanwhile, due to the summer clashes, Turkey had moved more into Azerbaijan. The new toys of the military-industrial complex really boldened the Azeris. Likely, Turkey gave more assurances to Azeris to get them out of the Russian sphere. The MHP and Eurasianists both have ties to the "deep state" of Azerbaijan, and even though we thought it was a fantasy for so long, the Turanist spirit is still there and alive with 50+ year old people. Especially within the security circles who have basically taken control of both the countries. Genocidal Turkish deep state figures from the 1990s who are known for arranging the mystery murders of tens of thousands of people were very active in Azerbaijan (they also launched a coup attempt back in the day in 1995 I think, but it failed). Today they are back as a consequence of the deal between AKP and Eurasianists.
The military exercises there were also used to bolster the nationalist fervor of the public while Turkish army increased its control of Azeri command.



So, let's see now.
* Turkey i stuck in every corner and needs a military victory asap. Erdğan has to give back to MHP nationalists and the opposition nationalists of CHP and İYİ parti can be converted over an issue with Armenians. Any anti-war reaction of opposition would be enough declare public enemy traitors.
* The day before the operation, a sudden arresting operation was launched on the pro-Kurd party over a 6 year issue where the innocence of those who are arrested was not only obvious but also confirmed by courts. Interestingly, one of the arrested was Ayhan Bilgen, a person known to be a very dove figure with no ties to Kurdish movement's more radical background. He is the mayor of Kars, the city neighbouring Armenia.
* I follow A LOT of pro-government figures online. You do not have to take my word for it, but a week before the operation, Azeris were already saying that the October will be the time for liberation of Karabakh.
* The Turkish army has been exercising in Azerbaijan FOR MONTHS. A lot of personnel and equipment was moved there during the process under the guise of the exercise. I mean...come on
* Cherry on top: The evening of the operations, "Awakening, the Greak Seljukids" TV show was launched on the state TV: A very nationalist, warmongering state propaganda show that emphasizes our ties to obviously the Azeris and the East

And suddenly, Armenians who are weak, poor, in no position for an offense against a numerically superior enemy with severe firepower differences, backed by a boldened Turkey, 1 month before the elections in USA (which means USA is busy, just like when Turkey started its offensive on Kurds before the US elections back in 2016) makes an "attack" on Azerbaijan.

As we say in Turkey: "yersen".

Turkey has really lost it. I am afraid we are headed towards a very dark path that is already costly for us. And it will likely lead to worst things. The West seems to have given up on Turkey with the ideological mindset in this country.


Next up, if things go really bad, Turkey will use the PKK card as expected, as is tradition to screw everything in any area. This will be to create a basis for direct Turkish intervention and pressure the sides even further. Though I doubt it will have an affect, but Turkey really is running out of options at this rate of burning diplomatic bridges.

[Vardano]

Quick rundown of countries involved in the conflict.




*This is the part of fresh interview. Father of Aliev was ruling in Azerbaijan since 80s, then after his death in 2003 the reign was passed to his son.

Aliev called Pashinyan a dictator and promised to stop him.
"If the international community cannot stop the insane dictator (Pashinyan), then Azerbaijan will stop them. Azerbaijan will show them their place and restore its territorial integrity," Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev said today.

*Turkey is ready to provide Azerbaijan with direct military support in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. This was stated by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu.
“Turkey fully supports Azerbaijan. The time has come to fundamentally solve the problem of the Armenian occupation” the minister said.

[Tureuki]

Someone tell Pashinyan and Aliyev that they should consider my idea.

-Outer lowlands of Karabakh should be entirely ceded to Azerbaijan, since these are where most of dislocated Azerbaijanis are from.
-Inner area should retain autonomy under Azerbaijani authority, it will continue to have a redesigned flag of its own, bilingual signs, tv channels and newspapers, it will have its own police and gendarmerie who will be funded through local income, but will get rid of heavy weaponry, Azerbaijan will not freely establish military bases, bases will be located on a select few predetermined locations as a symbolic presence of Azerbaijani authority. International observers will monitor the situation.
-Armenia will allow building of a highway that connects mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan that is only open to civilian transport and will have no Armenian control unless its a proven national security concern.
-Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia will reestablish proper diplomatic relationships, Turkey will open the Armenian borders.

[Vardano]

This can turn out to be very ugly for normal Azeri people.

According to @wargonzo, Turkish mercenaries, who arrived in Azerbaijan from Syria, were placed in border villages, where they began to establish their own order - that is, to force women to wear hijabs, and generally to force them to live according to Sharia law. The local Azerbaijani population reacted badly to radical trends and revolted. To resolve the conflict, Aliev had to send special forces there.

[Drtad]

Someone tell Pashinyan and Aliyev that they should consider my idea.

-Outer lowlands of Karabakh should be entirely ceded to Azerbaijan, since these are where most of dislocated Azerbaijanis are from.
-Inner area should retain autonomy under Azerbaijani authority, it will continue to have a redesigned flag of its own, bilingual signs, tv channels and newspapers, it will have its own police and gendarmerie who will be funded through local income, but will get rid of heavy weaponry, Azerbaijan will not freely establish military bases, bases will be located on a select few predetermined locations as a symbolic presence of Azerbaijani authority. International observers will monitor the situation.
-Armenia will allow building of a highway that connects mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan that is only open to civilian transport and will have no Armenian control unless its a proven national security concern.
-Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia will reestablish proper diplomatic relationships, Turkey will open the Armenian borders.

This proposal doesn't take into account dislocated Armenians from Azerbaijan. Again, the same issue arises - Azerbaijan has proven time and time again that it does not value the lives of Armenians, which is the whole reason for this conflict. That is why war is a viable solution for them (which also means they don't value the lives of their own people, especially minorities like Lezgis, Avars and Talyshis). Since Azerbaijan's government does not value the lives of Armenians, why should they allow the territory to be returned to Azerbaijan? That does not make any sense.

[dogukan]

Armenians are fighting a war of survival. That is why the world is so sympathetic to their case even though they are somewhat in the wrong here due to their expanded Artaskh.

Turkey and Azerbaijan want to connect and if possible completely get rid of Armenia or leave them to their isolated demise. The whole world can see this. Armenians, more so. Hence their fierce resistance. This does not have to be a murderous genocide, but to create the conditions for the destruction on this nation much like what happened to Assyrians.

The solution of the whole Karabakh situation therefore goes as far as facing with the genocide claims and all sides coming to honest clear with guarantees of no future conflict and peaceful integration.

[Tureuki]

Nothing can be done about the dislocated Armenians from Azerbaijan proper and dislocated Azerbaijanis from Armenia proper now, this is about Karabakh, Armenians of Karabakh are not dislocated, Azerbaijanis are.

The whole reason for this conflict is the fact that Armenian stance gives the Azerbaijani side no choice. There is no viable diplomatic proposal at all, Azerbaijanis are fed with hatred and rage based indoctrines because it is made so easy, an Azerbaijani dissident that advocates for a peaceful solution cannot come up with a meaningful argument that can sooth the masses with bruised national pride. If the Armenian side takes a step back in a controlled manner under close observation of the international authorities, this might shake the moral ground of Azerbaijani militaristic outcry, giving the common people options. I know it has its risks for the Armenian side, that's why i suggested only a symbolic Azerbaijani military presence, Armenians would still have their own police and gendarmarie that would remain as a deterrant force.

[Vardano]

This morning, at around 10:30, Turkish F-16 fighters took off from the airfield of the Azerbaijani city of Ganja and covered the actions of the Azerbaijani aviation and drones that attacked the settlements of Vardenis, Mets Masrik and Sotk in Armenia itself: Ministry of Defense


Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down SU-25 of Armenian Air Force: Ministry of Defense of Armenia. The pilot died.

[Vanoi]

Those Russians better intervene as Armenia stands no chance against both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

[Vardano]

I already mentioned about coldness in Russia-Armenia relations. Armenia is poor country but not weak. Ministry of defense in Armenia is more than confident that Azerbaijan in no threat to national security at all. That is why Armenia stated they won't requesting help in CSTO and still did not.
Putin obviously wants Armenia to ask for a help to show to Armenia that revolution and positive changes mean nothing when you deal with real war and to show to people in Armenia that it is Russia and not US here to help when it is needed the most.

*On the left is the commander of the pro-Turkish group "Sultan Murad", which fought in Syria against the Kurds and the Syrian army, on the right is the famous terrorist Abu Khamsha. Now they are in Azerbaijan and are fighting against Armenia and Artsakh.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Tureuki]

Have some shame buddy

https://twitter.com/abo33amsha/statu...93576741924864

Turkish F-16s did not shoot down any Armenian aircraft, Armenia relentlessly tries to convince the world that Turkey is directly involved in order to receive an international intervention, yeah sounds like they are sure that they can repel the Azerbaijanis.

[swabian]

Putin is a trap. Countries that count on him end up like Chechenya; with a despicable sausage of a common criminal psycho in charge, who in turn keeps the population from developing and growing to become a problem for Putin.

[Nebaki]

@Dogukan

Love how you turn things again and blaming turkish nationals while for example that one known guy in this Topic is making fully armenian propaganda even caming with some turkish merc. hoax while without any airborne it´s not even possible for Turkey reaching Azerbaijan - how they even should be there?

But how it comes you are even ignoring the Jihadis from Iran which are just the Shi'a extremism while Azerbaijan is totally the opposite of it - how is your view about the People that got were expelled 30 years ago from Nagorno Karabakh region?

Armenians are fighting a war of survival. That is why the world is so sympathetic to their case even though they are somewhat in the wrong here due to their expanded Artaskh.

Turkey and Azerbaijan want to connect and if possible completely get rid of Armenia or leave them to their isolated demise. The whole world can see this. Armenians, more so. Hence their fierce resistance. This does not have to be a murderous genocide, but to create the conditions for the destruction on this nation much like what happened to Assyrians.

The solution of the whole Karabakh situation therefore goes as far as facing with the genocide claims and all sides coming to honest clear with guarantees of no future conflict and peaceful integration.

*On the left is the commander of the pro-Turkish group "Sultan Murad", which fought in Syria against the Kurds and the Syrian army, on the right is the famous terrorist Abu Khamsha. Now they are in Azerbaijan and are fighting against Armenia and Artsakh.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Can you please stop making armenian Propaganda? even armenian officials are blaming themselve by sharing same things again over their social media accounts. With some Google Image Search your claim will turns out as hoax. But maybe you can give us more information why armenian are siding now with Iranian Hezbollah? How much did you pay them to fight against Shia Muslims like Azerbaijan or are still having the willing to ignore that fact?

[Gaius Baltar]

What is the military balance here? How does each country stand in terms of troops, tanks, planes, artillery, etc.?

[Drtad]

There is no viable diplomatic proposal at all, Azerbaijanis are fed with hatred and rage based indoctrines because it is made so easy, an Azerbaijani dissident that advocates for a peaceful solution cannot come up with a meaningful argument that can sooth the masses with bruised national pride. If the Armenian side takes a step back in a controlled manner under close observation of the international authorities, this might shake the moral ground of Azerbaijani militaristic outcry, giving the common people options. I know it has its risks for the Armenian side, that's why i suggested only a symbolic Azerbaijani military presence, Armenians would still have their own police and gendarmarie that would remain as a deterrant force.

Yes, it does have risks for the Armenian side to do that, which is why they don't. Why would Armenia willingly put peoples' lives at risk? That's not a viable solution. First of all, the gunfire locators and observers must be put in place at the line of contact (which Armenia agrees with and Azerbaijan doesn't want). That is the most important thing right now that's needed to deter violence. Lives are on the line - Armenian and Azeri lives. War is NOT a viable solution.

[swabian]

@Zandt: Pfff... sorry. I don't think anybody knows, not even they themselves. edit: knowing this kind of stuff is of course an absolute luxury.

[Nebaki]

What is the military balance here? How does each country stand in terms of troops, tanks, planes, artillery, etc.?

Azerbaijan

- support from Israel and Turkey

Armenia

- support from Iran, S. Arabia and Russia

They are using mostly same equipment but Azerbaijan got more modern stuff and more Weapons aswell.