Originally Posted by
Gaidin
The US is very broken. It's just that time in it's history.
Did you look at history antaeus? You don't just ask for what you want to be fixed. Something has to actually demonstrate itself to be broken to the point that the government fixes itself. That's how the US breaks and fixes itself. And I mean, literally, since its inception it has broken itself at least six times counting its formation. It's just a matter of what the parties are and whether you were alive close enough to well...shudder.
The US has had six party systems, or, to say, six eras where party competition was somewhat stable. That is, both in balance of power, and in between the types of issues they fought over. Eras: 1796-1820, 1832-1856, 1868-1892, 1896-1928, 1932-1968, 1980-current. The transitions were led from the top down, typically catalyzed by societal crises. The first five party systems lasted, by this count, 24, 24, 24, 32, and 36 years.... a nice regularity, with length expending as people lived longer. By this pattern, be ready.
On this pattern there are four major periods of democratic transformation in the United Sates, not counting today. The Revolutionary War(Monarchy to self-governance), the 1830s(major expansion of the franchise to nonpropertied white males), the Progressive Era(major expansion of franchise to women), the Depression, and the 1960s(voting rights and enfranchisement of Black people re poll taxes, plus some governence reforms), and generally now. There's a regular pattern, with some kind of transformation coming about every 60 years or so. The United States is due for a wate of democratic transformation.
Now, past performance is no way we can bet on future returns. There are elements of current US politics that make our draws for another transformation and renewal deeply random. But the lessons have value. They can tell us what looks like a map, what looks like we haven't been, and what updates we need to keep the US working.
Now, everybody knows about the US's first-past-the-post system. That gives it a two national party structure for political competition. In turn, two parties have had to be big-ten coalitians, theoretically. But these are hard to maintain over long periods of time, as allies on certain issues, are enemies on others. Demographics change, altering the relative balances of power, both within parties and between parties. Voting loyalties, however, tend to stick. Breaking from the party comes at a high cost if the opposing party can't meet your demands either. MAJOR EVENT. Econimic depression. Conflict over race. BIG THING.
Let's look at history.
Back in 1832-1856 the system was based on a mostly balanced competition between the frontier based Democratic Party founded by Andrew Jackson and Martin Van Buren, against the more industry friendly Whig Party. The parties argued between themselves over canals and tariffs. Internally, over slavery, since both had northern and southern groups. When the westward expansion made the slavery question unavoidable, both parties split, and a civil war and a new alignment emerged.
The rest is history.
Almost a century later, the party system of 1932-1968 came together in response to the shock of the Great Depression. Democrats dominated with the New Deal Coalition, both Northern and Southern, but divided on how to send ONLY to white people. The coalition held as long as civil rights was a local issue. The Civil Rights Revolution of the 1960s jettisoned the Southern conservatives from the Democratic Party and the success of the New Deal shifted the politics of redistribution.
The rest is history.
That both parties are fractured does not harald a realignment. Division is a constant in America. What does signal a potential realignment is the lack of any substantive arguments about the big questions that have defined partisan conflict throughout US History: The role of government, the regulation of economy, or the United States role in the world. Instead this election is about why the other party would destroy democracy and the country, in narratives with race.
Each time, amendments were passed. Each time, laws were passed. Each time, life in America changed. But is it guaranteed? Who knows? How will it change?