POTF 29 - Winner and Runner-Up

[Aexodus]

The winner of POTF 29 was Lord Oda Nobunaga, earning 1 competition point and 5 rep points for the second time in a row. Great job!

Winning Post

Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

We are forgetting the 1889-1890 Flu pandemic. It started somewhere in Siberia or Central Asia and spread across Europe and to major North America ports and cities. The end result was about 1 million deaths. What is more surprising is that this flu didn't spread to Asia or South America. Taking a look at major Flu outbreaks: 1889-1890 Asian Flu - 1 million death toll 1918 Flu/Spanish Flu - probably over 20 million 1957-1958 Asian Flu - probably 4 million deaths 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu - probably 4 million killed 2002-2004 SARS outbreak - more than 774 deaths, a couple random cases being discovered every once in a while 2009 Swine Flu outbreak - something like 500,000 deaths 2012 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (aka MERS or Camel Flu) - 866 deaths, to date no vaccine and is still ongoing 2019-???? COVID pandemic (aka SARS2 electric boogaloo) - to date probably more than 300,000 deaths, no vaccine If anything this shows the resilience of the Corona virus and its ability to adapt in order to spread rapidly and take on multiple hosts. A few of these the virus was able to use snakes, bats, birds, camels and pigs as hosts, mutate and then spread to Humans (it mutated to acquire these hosts as well). In the really destructive cases the virus was able to spread very rapidly and mutate to become more deadly. Those cases with really high death tolls are mostly the result of improper containment methods and poor hygiene. SARS for example was contained and eliminated very rapidly, and for some reason it did not spread as quickly to other parts of the world (probably the virus is slower than the others), and did not kill as many people because the death rate was low. Generally these things have a death rate of maximum 1%, with the Spanish Flu being the exception at a potential 2% or 4% (since they couldn't really keep track of this on a global or even regional scale, some suggest a number as high as 10% death rate among the infected). The one advantage that COVID19 has is that it spreads and mutates extremely quickly. Containment was also handled very poorly in most countries. Despite taking a huge hit, many Asian countries were prepared because they had learned from the SARS outbreak. But the ability of COVID19 to spread far outclasses that of SARS. The 100 year time span from Spanish Flu to COVID19 I think is largely coincidental. But it shows us how these Corona viruses can spread and mutate, and keep coming back in waves. The issue both in 1919 and 2019 was just that the powers at be did an extremely poor job of containing the virus. Granted in 1919 this concept was somewhat new and what with WW1... I don't know what their excuse is in 2019. Complacency I guess, too long since there was a major outbreak or crisis of any kind. I should have included the number of infections above, but anyway this gets the basic point across. Though it is somewhat strange that the deadliest strains tend to come from Asia, even the Spanish Flu has been suggested to have started in Manchuria. It could be a matter of bad hygiene but I don't know. The reason why Corona viruses do not tend to devastate hotter regions like the Middle East is because they struggle to survive in hotter climates, while generally thriving in drier cold climates, they also struggle in a wet atmosphere like South America or South East Asia. Perhaps the MERS outbreak shows that these viruses are capable of adapting to these desert climates, and then potentially other circumstances as well. Or perhaps... they are sentient, they are evolving, and they are coming for us.

Runner-up this week is Cope. Until next time folks.

Runner Up Post

Death of George Floyd and Subsequent Riots.

A prima facie viewing of George Floyd's death justified Chauvin's arrest. I had speculated that the cause of death was asphyxiation caused by the pressure being exerted on the victim's neck, though the preliminary results of the initial autopsy suggests that this was not the case. Nevertheless, as it is doubtlessly the case that the medical specifics will be hotly contested moving forward (the family have already sought an independent examination), these first findings should be viewed with all due scepticism. As far as the protests are concerned, I fully support the right of all people to exercise their 1A rights - particularly regarding instances of state tyranny. Violence and the destruction of innocent people's property, however, are neither acceptable nor helpful. The US's enemies are already circling, hoping to exploit Floyd's death to encourage further instability.