War drums; beating softly for now

[B. W.]

Many people aren't aware that China has cast a covetous eye towards Taiwan since the 1940s. For at least two decades they have had the stated goal of "unification" with Taiwan. The same, of course, goes for Hong Cong. In preparation for a military operation China has been building up its military offensive capabilities for two decades and it routinely conducts military operations in the south China Sea, but never before at this level:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...ruggle-taiwan/

Now it goes without saying that China would rather take over Taiwan peacefully such as it did with Hong Cong by making promises it never plans to keep; just ask the people of Hong Cong about that. The recent elections in Taiwan have driven a spike through those Chinese aspirations of a peaceful takeover. Not only that, in spite of 5,000 years of common language and culture, the Taiwanese have taken to calling themselves just that; Taiwanese.

Any occupation of Taiwan will not take place peacefully, the Taiwanese will not allow that.

China for its part has some dramatic internal problems to deal with that would cause it major trouble if a war (invasion) of Taiwan should last more than a week or so. It has some weaknesses. Four regions, in particular, are not majority Han Chinese (the ruling majority in China). In order to diminish the internal threats China has pursued a policy of Han colonization in those regions and this has been somewhat successful in at least two regions; leaving the minority there as second class citizens (southern China).

The other two regions are an area of western China that has a large Uyghur Muslim population and Tibet. The colonization by the Han has been somewhat successful in the Uyghur region, but it requires a large military presence to secure it. In the event of a war those troops would have to remain there to preserve stability in a very hostile population; presently, upwards of 2,000,000 Uyghurs are undergoing "rehabilitation".

Colonization of Tibet just really hasn't happened because the Han seem to have an aversion to the high altitude. However, it is a sparsely inhabited region and control there shouldn't be too difficult as long as repressive measures don't get too extreme.

China has other problems as well. Western banks have avoided buying into the Chinese banking system. This was prudent, given that Chinese banking debt is around 40 trillion. For two decades the Chinese have spent lavishly on a facade of infrastructure and even more heavily on their military. In other words, they have spent faster than they've made money.

The new reality for the Chinese is that after the Covid-19 crisis is over many nations are going to be rethinking their investments and the cost of doing business with China. Maybe they should just call it the Han Virus. In addition to that there are many who are already calling for reparations against China for the ruination of the world economy.

During the course of two decades China has bought into the infrastructure and property of a number of nations. They own vast tracts of Australia's farm and ranching and industry. Italy as well and they are making huge inroads in Africa.

Things are in motion to change the course of the Chinese economic model and this model is dependent on the creation of 11,000,000 new jobs a year. In short, if China is to realize its goal of reuniting Taiwan it will have to be soon; perhaps this year.

So, in summation, although this was a very brief description of the current situation, what do you think the chances are that China will make a military move on Taiwan? Also, consider that one of the US carrier groups assigned to protect the South China Sea is out of operation and the other is also experiencing the same problems that plagued the first one.

I should also add that China doesn't really have an army or navy. Those forces are part of the CCP; part of the party apparatus and are predominately Han. Those forces do not have any recent history of dealing the fog of war. The last time they engage US forces was in Korea. When they did, they had the advantage of absolute surprise and overwhelming numbers. They did succeed in driving back the American forces several hundred miles until they could regroup. But in the end, they were pushed back and they lost 10 soldiers for every American soldier they killed.

Comments anyone? Do you think the Chinese will do something incredibly stupid or give up on their stated goal of reunification?

[RedGuard]

just because you have a fantasy of going to war with china doesn't mean we have to share it here.

China has been isolating Taiwan for years now. It would be retarded for them to attack Taiwan at this point, Taiwan is too busy losing allies themselves.

Taiwan is a proxy for the United States at any rate. Without the UN and IMF propping it up it probably would have already unified with China again peacefully

hopefully in the future this goal will be achieved, with Taiwan returning to its rightful state as a backwater province in the Chinese Communist Empire

[B. W.]

just because you have a fantasy of going to war with china doesn't mean we have to share it here.

China has been isolating Taiwan for years now. It would be retarded for them to attack Taiwan at this point, Taiwan is too busy losing allies themselves.

Taiwan is a proxy for the United States at any rate. Without the UN and IMF propping it up it probably would have already unified with China again peacefully

hopefully in the future this goal will be achieved, with Taiwan returning to its rightful state as a backwater province in the Chinese Communist Empire

Only in your dreams do I have a fantasy of going to war with China. China has a stated goal of "reuniting" Taiwan by 2025.

Why China has a problem with people who choose to live in a democracy?

[Daruwind]

Public image is number one for China. So unless they are sure for 120% of success, they will not attack because possible failure would shake China more than anything else. Plus one thing is to persecute population with police and cameras and second to invade island. Imagine pictures of dead people and such stuff on internet...nonono, china has to avoid that. So until they can grasp Taiwan in quick calm way. They won´t move. It is the very same reason internat chinese propaganda is as it is. Legitimicy of regime is build upon bamboo legs with lots hidden skeletons of that long two digits yearly growth.

And because you can be never sure about military especially as their experience is quite low...

Plus they probably know the second they start using real power to push chinese interest, the whole region will shift against them. Simple logic, China is large and has large areas of interent. But hardly can compete versus all around.

[B. W.]

Public image is number one for China. So unless they are sure for 120% of success, they will not attack because possible failure would shake China more than anything else. Plus one thing is to persecute population with police and cameras and second to invade island. Imagine pictures of dead people and such stuff on internet...nonono, china has to avoid that. So until they can grasp Taiwan in quick calm way. They won´t move. It is the very same reason internat chinese propaganda is as it is. Legitimicy of regime is build upon bamboo legs with lots hidden skeletons of that long two digits yearly growth.

And because you can be never sure about military especially as their experience is quite low...

Plus they probably know the second they start using real power to push chinese interest, the whole region will shift against them. Simple logic, China is large and has large areas of interent. But hardly can compete versus all around.

I tend to agree with that assessment. That's the reason I said it would have to done swiftly.

The one thing that bothers me is that the CCP is counting on China being the big supplier to the world as it has been. They have to have this and job creation to maintain their economic model.

That is going to change. Even the "elites" who have prospered unbelievably at the expense of their fellow countrymen during the last two decades by embracing China economically have their limits. The previous model of "just in time supply" is going to change. What that change will look like is unknown, but it will be different and it won't be as beneficial to China as it has been.

With China's debt and the world clamoring for reparations, the situation in China could become desperate as their economic model crumbles. There are plenty of examples in the past where tyrannical regimes have tried to play on nationalistic ambitions to take the public's eye off domestic problems; Argentina comes to mind.

China does possess tens of thousands of shore to ship missiles that were obtained for the very purpose of keeping US carrier forces out of range if an invasion of Taiwan were to take place. The US, of course has planned for this.

So the question remains, will the CCP do something truly stupid?

[Heathen Hammer]

No need for military escalations, just put them in economic full nelson. Sanction China, give tax cuts to businesses that cut ties with it, fine businesses that do not, perhaps nationalize property of Chinese nationals and sell it to domestic market for cents to a dollar. Have alphabet agencies become useful for once by looking into ties between domestic elites and Chinese government as well.

[Prodromos]

An ultra-nationalist state threatens to invade a neighboring democracy with the aim of ethnic reunification while systematically exterminating minorities within its own territory? I think I've seen this movie before.

Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but the best way of maintaining peace is through strength. As the greatest political leader in human history once said, "We know only too well that war comes not when the forces of freedom are strong, but when they are weak. It is then that tyrants are tempted."

[Heathen Hammer]

You had to ruin a valid point by quoting Reagan, under whom CIA (under leadership of Bush sr.) was providing assistance to literal terrorists, drug cartels and mass-murdering death squads.

[Lord Thesaurian]

An ultra-nationalist state threatens to invade a neighboring democracy with the aim of ethnic reunification while systematically exterminating minorities within its own territory? I think I've seen this movie before.

Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but the best way of maintaining peace is through strength. As the greatest political leader in human history once said, "We know only too well that war comes not when the forces of freedom are strong, but when they are weak. It is then that tyrants are tempted."

Greatest political leader ever? Nah. But he was a great speaker when he wanted to be:



"As for the enemies of freedom, those who are potential adversaries, they will be reminded that peace is the highest aspiration of the American people. We will negotiate for it, sacrifice for it; we will not surrender for it, now or ever."

As long as we have our freedom at home, Red China can only nip at our heels. But if we erode our institutions in pursuit of nationalistic fantasies, we will have nothing left to fight for. Militarily, the Politburo has historically and currently attempted to use its missiles as a form of gun boat diplomacy, just like North Korea, but more specifically to intimidate neighbors and deter US and allied navies. We’ve been down this road many times, and each time, we emerged victorious. Now, as ever, the struggle depends not on our enemies, but on the will of the American people to maintain peace through strength - or not.

[Heathen Hammer]

Greatest political leader ever? Nah. But he was a great speaker when he wanted to be:



"As for the enemies of freedom, those who are potential adversaries, they will be reminded that peace is the highest aspiration of the American people. We will negotiate for it, sacrifice for it; we will not surrender for it, now or ever."

As long as we have our freedom at home, Red China can only nip at our heels. But if we erode our institutions in pursuit of nationalistic fantasies, we will have nothing left to fight for. Militarily, the Politburo has historically and currently attempted to use its missiles as a form of gun boat diplomacy, just like North Korea, but more specifically to intimidate neighbors and deter US and allied navies. We’ve been down this road many times, and each time, we emerged victorious. Now, as ever, the struggle depends not on our enemies, but on the will of the American people to maintain peace through strength - or not.

American people don't owe you their taxes for globalist tinpot neocon fantasies of "maintaining peace through strength". I already described how to deal with China without the need to feed the parasite that is American military-industrial complex:

Sanction China, give tax cuts to businesses that cut ties with it, fine businesses that do not, perhaps nationalize property of Chinese nationals and sell it to domestic market for cents to a dollar. Have alphabet agencies become useful for once by looking into ties between domestic elites and Chinese government as well.

Chinese know that wasting money on building more planes and other military junk or expanding useless military bases around the world won't harm China in any way, as all that garbage won't be used anyways, as China is a nuclear power. Now if you take their money, if you start arresting Hollywood and media higher-ups on Chinese payroll, that will harm them.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Expansion of the PLA’s Global Reach
The mutually reinforcing nature of China’s commercial and military activities abroad
To date, China has primarily relied on its economic power to cultivate influence in its immediate neighborhood and beyond. Under the banner of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has pledged to invest more than $1 trillion in infrastructure investment across 60 plus countries. Given China’s growing interests abroad, the PLA Navy (PLAN) has begun developing capabilities to operate in the far seas. It opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti near a Chinese-operated port in 2017 and has demonstrated both the will and ability to protect Chinese interests and citizens in foreign countries, as evidenced by the noncombatant evacuation operations it carried out in Libya and Yemen in recent years. In addition, many of China’s infrastructure investments seem to be driven in part by strategic concerns, with an eye on expanding the reach of China’s military abroad. For instance, Chinese analysts have called for investing in commercial ports in order to use these sites first for civilian purposes and then as strategic support points for the PLAN.
Increasing military presence and activities in the East and South China Seas
In addition to expanding its military in support of, or through commercial activities, Beijing has also directly increased its military presence in the East and South China Seas. In the East China Sea, Beijing regularly uses maritime law enforcement ships and aircraft to assert its sovereignty claims over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands which are claimed by both Japan and China. In the South China Sea, Beijing has steadily engaged in land reclamation and the construction of military outposts in the Spratly Islands. According to recent reports, China has now installed anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missile systems, and military jamming equipment on a few of the disputed features. Given the increasing militarization of these territories, U.S. Navy Admiral Philip Davidson writes that “China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”

https://www.pacificcouncil.org/newsr...tary-expansion

Yet China is not Russia or Iran, and trying to impose an extensive sanctions regime on Beijing would be both unwise and ultimately ineffective. Given China’s global economic importance—notwithstanding its recent economic troubles—U.S. policymakers would struggle to attract the international support required to implement an extensive sanctions regime in response to cyber attacks or regional coercion. In addition, unlike the Russian or Iranian economies, which are dependent on energy exports, the Chinese economy is highly diversified and would be much more resilient to sanctions. Even if such sanctions could be constructed, China has the economic heft and political influence to hit back and do real damage to both U.S. companies and broader U.S. interests. If Beijing viewed extensive economic sanctions as an effort to undermine the economic basis of the Chinese Communist Party’s rule—particularly in the aftermath of China’s recent economic stumbles—Beijing’s response could be highly escalatory. In short, China’s global importance and its enormous economy inoculate it against the type of extensive sanctions levied on Russia and Iran.

ERECTING EXTENSIVE sanctions against China would be unwise and infeasible, but more limited sanctions may shape Chinese behavior with fewer negative effects. In particular, measures designed to deter internationally recognized “bad conduct” by Chinese individuals, companies and agencies—particularly those who commit economic espionage—could be effective. On the other hand, sanctions are likely to be less useful in maritime disputes involving ambiguous territorial claims.
When considering specific sanctions, policymakers should ask five questions. First, do existing authorities provide mechanisms for sanctioning the actors responsible? Second, would sanctions be sufficiently powerful to compel these or future actors to change their behavior? Third, would foreign partners cooperate in levying such sanctions? Fourth, how might the adversary respond and how damaging would these responses be? Fifth and finally, would the imposition of sanctions reinforce or undermine norms of good conduct and strengthen or weaken the long-term viability of the overall U.S. sanctions position? The answers to these questions vary depending on the specific sanctions under consideration

https://nationalinterest.org/feature...on-china-15285

[Heathen Hammer]

The elephant in the room is the current pandemic of Chinese virus, that originated from China and spread around the world because of socialist Chinese government. Without a doubt, international community would be for the most part fine with putting economic sanctions on Chin after what it has done. Sanctioning China would be incredibly popular and Japan is already paying its companies to pull out of it.

.....
American corporations in Western countries: "Racism is bad, if you are racist we will close your bank account, have you fired and de-person you"
American corporations in marxist China: "W-w-w-why yes, racism is a-okay comrades!"
This goes to illustrate my point that this isn't China itself, but Western political and corporate establishments bending over for the socialist regime in China.

[Gromovnik]

Oh, the irony...

[Cyclops]

Taiwan is a rebel province of China, maintaining its separate existence solely by force of US arms as leverage for use in other arenas.

Talk of "freedom" in this context is stupid (as stupid as calling Reagan "the greatest leader in human history") or cynical, the place was under martial law for decades and only escape conquest because Stalin tricked the US and China into fighting over Korea.

In terms of truth and justice it is a Chinese province for the brutal oligarchs of Beijing to do with as they will. The US fleets in the region keep the Chinese at bay in what amounts to a perpetual wedgie.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Taiwan is a rebel province of China, maintaining its separate existence solely by force of US arms as leverage for use in other arenas.

In terms of truth and justice it is a Chinese province for the brutal oligarchs of Beijing to do with as they will. The US fleets in the region keep the Chinese at bay in what amounts to a perpetual wedgie.

To be clear the above is an explicitly pro-CCP viewpoint. Asserting the right of the CCP to dominate or even occupy its neighbors, be they independent nations or Chinese governments in exile, has nothing to do with truth or justice. Thus referencing “freedom” in the context of curtailing authoritarian expansion is not only appropriate but inevitable.

[Heathen Hammer]

Taiwan is a rebel province of China, maintaining its separate existence solely by force of US arms as leverage for use in other arenas.

Talk of "freedom" in this context is stupid (as stupid as calling Reagan "the greatest leader in human history") or cynical, the place was under martial law for decades and only escape conquest because Stalin tricked the US and China into fighting over Korea.

In terms of truth and justice it is a Chinese province for the brutal oligarchs of Beijing to do with as they will. The US fleets in the region keep the Chinese at bay in what amounts to a perpetual wedgie.

Having alphabet agencies become not useless for once and look into who in US upper eschelons (Hollywood higher-ups, financial elites, Democrat brass) is on China's payroll could be far more detrimental for Beijing then moving some rust buckets back and forth at taxpayer's great expense.

[SNTMATTER123]

Mhm. We need to end this ridiculous capitalist [read treasonous]- chinese order. ban those in hollywood who took chinese money, ban foreign governments and their proxies from involving themselves in americas arts. its ridiculous that we allow freedom of speech and expression-- something meant to make us better and experience the totality of the human experience-- to be used as propaganda for a totaltarian government that seeks our destruction. Freedom of speech should not be a loaded gun at our heads.

Reduce the globalization of supply chains, nationalize mines and other natural resource projects and do a norway style fund to the people. End mindless consumerist capitalism that does nothing but destroy the planet, empower the rich and the chinese, and destroy our families and our souls.

in actual reality nothing will be done due to a childish and inert population-- that is, until we have nothing left but to act. Prepare for more and more decline, and then a sharp uptick in violence.

[Heathen Hammer]

Mhm. We need to end this ridiculous capitalist [read treasonous]- chinese order. ban those in hollywood who took chinese money, ban foreign governments and their proxies from involving themselves in americas arts. its ridiculous that we allow freedom of speech and expression-- something meant to make us better and experience the totality of the human experience-- to be used as propaganda for a totaltarian government that seeks our destruction. Freedom of speech should not be a loaded gun at our heads.

Reduce the globalization of supply chains, nationalize mines and other natural resource projects and do a norway style fund to the people. End mindless consumerist capitalism that does nothing but destroy the planet, empower the rich and the chinese, and destroy our families and our souls.

in actual reality nothing will be done due to a childish and inert population-- that is, until we have nothing left but to act. Prepare for more and more decline, and then a sharp uptick in violence.

I agree with most of your post, but freedom of speech must remain unquestionable.
Instead of preventing them from speaking, all it takes is publicizing their ties with the regime in China, be it Hollywood executive, Democrat brass or silicon valley CEO.

[SNTMATTER123]

I agree with most of your post, but freedom of speech must remain unquestionable.
Instead of preventing them from speaking, all it takes is publicizing their ties with the regime in China, be it Hollywood executive, Democrat brass or silicon valley CEO.

How does that work on practical terms? The media are so in bed with China, they would only half report it at best, likely putting their own spin on it. Take bloomberg for instance, the connection between the elites, media, and china are so indelible-- I dont see how you can think such reasonable and light measures are going to be effective at all.

Freedom of speech, sure. But we banned Communists from participating in the arts during the height of the cold war --- no doubt that entire era went too far, but the basic logic was sound. If you want to beat an enemy you need to at least understand in an unified sense that they are your enemy, and you cant do that when they're bribing your artists, your journalists, and every other meaningful institution within your society.

[Heathen Hammer]

How does that work on practical terms? The media are so in bed with China, they would only half report it at best, likely putting their own spin on it. Take bloomberg for instance, the connection between the elites, media, and china are so indelible-- I dont see how you can think such reasonable and light measures are going to be effective at all.

Freedom of speech, sure. But we banned Communists from participating in the arts during the height of the cold war --- no doubt that entire era went too far, but the basic logic was sound. If you want to beat an enemy you need to at least understand in an unified sense that they are your enemy, and you cant do that when they're bribing your artists, your journalists, and every other meaningful institution within your society.

If a government official is pandering to China in his professional capacity, then he must face the legal responsibility for such actions. However when we prosecute speech we create a very dangerous precedent, which is why any limits to free speech must be unacceptable in a society that fancies itself civilized. If media panders to China, then its ties to China must be actively publicized and its journalistic credibility destroyed. Companies that refuse to pull out of China must be subjected to fines, I'm also okay with nationalizing businesses and real estate owned by Chinese citizens so it can be sold to domestic market for pennies to a dollar.