USA elections 2020 - 2021

[alhoon]

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin...Biden absolutely needs at least one of these states and it's not looking too good for him on that front.

On the contrary, if we take the Blue Shift into account, it does look good for Biden when it comes to Michigan and Wisconsin. He will probably get Michigan and has very good chances to get Wisconsin... by 1%-2%.


But Pennsylvania will decide the election and at this point, it's a toss-up. Yes, with Trump 15% over Biden at half votes counted, it's a tossup. The number of registered democrat voter ballots for Biden that are yet to be counted are staggering.

[Prodromos]

It's still pretty early. Wait for the mail in votes

[the_mango55]

So as predicted, we won’t know the winner on election night. Looks good for Biden based on the outstanding votes but nothing is certain.

[irontaino]

On the contrary, if we take the Blue Shift into account, it does look good for Biden when it comes to Michigan and Wisconsin. He will probably get Michigan and has very good chances to get Wisconsin... by 1%-2%.


But Pennsylvania will decide the election and at this point, it's a toss-up. Yes, with Trump 15% over Biden at half votes counted, it's a tossup. The number of registered democrat voter ballots for Biden that are yet to be counted are staggering.

True. Apparently, the sheer volume of absentee and mail-in ballots means we may not know the full result tonight.

[alhoon]

True. Apparently, the sheer volume of absentee and mail-in ballots means we may not know the full result tonight.

It practically guarantees we won't

[the_mango55]

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin...Biden absolutely needs at least one of these states and it's not looking too good for him on that front.

This post is all kinds of wrong. Biden needs two of those states, Ohio isn’t even in play for Biden anymore, and the other three are absolutely looking pretty good for him.

Those states have the opposite situation of states like NC and Florida. Those southern states count early votes first then adds Election Day votes, which shows a Biden lead getting chipped away. The Rust Belt states on the other hand count the election day votes first, and are not allowed to count mail in votes until after, for some reason. So even though Trump has a lead now, you’ll see that Chip away in the coming days.

Edit: somehow apparently Georgia is back in play?

[alhoon]

Georgia is not back in. Trump is +7% at 81% of the vote.

[the_mango55]

Georgia is not back in. Trump is +7% at 81% of the vote.

They haven’t counted any votes in Fulton county (Atlanta) because of a pipe bursting. I doubt it swings blue but it’s still in play.

[alhoon]

They haven’t counted any votes in Fulton county (Atlanta) because of a pipe bursting. I doubt it swings blue but it’s still in play.

760K votes remaining and Trump is 240K votes ahead. Biden needs 66% of the remaining votes to flip it.

Seems to me it will probably end up at 268 Trump, 272 Biden and it will be the decision of the Rogue Electors that will count. Still remains to be seen for the not-so-big chance that Trump wins Michigan or Nevada / Biden wins Georgia or NC.

[Coughdrop addict]

And Trump has already declared victory and is trying to stop vote counting, and his vile deplorables are already cheering and calling for liberals to commit suicide.

[DaVinci]

Just the press conference a few minutes ago with no. 45: He declared victory and further that he won't accept the election results in case the election is not won. Exactly what he already stated few weeks ago, he repeated it right now. It cannot get more un-american and un-democratic.

[alhoon]

Just the press conference a few minutes ago with no. 45: He declared victory and further that he won't accept the election results in case the election is not won. Exactly what he already stated few weeks ago, he repeated it right now. It cannot get more un-american and un-democratic.

Can I have a link for that? I believe he would do that, but I want to read it.

[Coughdrop addict]

Can I have a link for that? I believe he would do that, but I want to read it.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11...ready-have-won

[antaeus]

Can I have a link for that? I believe he would do that, but I want to read it.

It was broadcast on virtually every network. No exaggeration and no hyperbole.

Pretty heavy dog whistle...

[alhoon]

It was broadcast on virtually every network. No exaggeration and no hyperbole.

Dog whistle of the century.

I am watching the election map, not checking the networks. I will do so.

On the contrary, if we take the Blue Shift into account, it does look good for Biden when it comes to Michigan and Wisconsin. He will probably get Michigan and has very good chances to get Wisconsin... by 1%-2%.

But Pennsylvania will decide the election and at this point, it's a toss-up. Yes, with Trump 15% over Biden at half votes counted, it's a tossup. The number of registered democrat voter ballots for Biden that are yet to be counted are staggering.

True. Apparently, the sheer volume of absentee and mail-in ballots means we may not know the full result tonight.

It practically guarantees we won't

The blue shift is slow in materializing. At the time, it seems probable that Trump will win one of Michigan or Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
And with Pennsylvania... the presidency.
It is not certain yet, but at this point, it is the most plausible scenario. With 74% of the vote in Pennsylvania counted (according to abc) Trump is ahead 13 points. Biden needs to get ~70% of the remaining vote to get Pennsylvania. It is not impossible, considering the size of the democrats that voted by mail but it is not probable.
What I mean is that if it was indeed 70% at the vote-by-mail, Biden would have been closer to Trump by now. As such, the most probable conclusion is that vote-by-mail, while favorable to Biden is not THAT favorable.

Thus, Trump will probably win Pennsylvania ... and with it, the Presidency.

[PointOfViewGun]

According to ABC live coverage, of the 2.5 million mail-in votes in Pennsylvania only 500 thousand were counted so far which had 78% going to Biden. If that trend continues he's pound to win Pennsylvania.

[DaVinci]

It doesn't matter much ... even if the election maths show in result a narrow victory for Biden (i don't count with that!), no. 45 will go to the court. The constitutional crisis is clearly announced. And no. 45 prepared it well recently with the now-majority in the Supreme Court.

[alhoon]

According to ABC live coverage, of the 2.5 million mail-in votes in Pennsylvania only 500 thousand were counted so far which had 78% going to Biden. If that trend continues he's pound to win Pennsylvania.

This doesn't add up PoVG.
5250 votes = 74% counted. At most 1.8M votes remain. If Biden had 78% in the mailed-in votes, then the difference wouldn't be that great as it stands. It may be that Biden indeed has a 70% in the mailed in votes, but it is not too likely. And Biden needs 70% of the remaining votes to win Pennsylvania.

[PointOfViewGun]

This doesn't add up PoVG.
5250 votes = 74% counted. At most 1.8M votes remain. If Biden had 78% in the mailed-in votes, then the difference wouldn't be that great as it stands. It may be that Biden indeed has a 70% in the mailed in votes, but it is not too likely. And Biden needs 70% of the remaining votes to win Pennsylvania.

The votes keep changing as we speak so don't expect full accuracy from them. So far, about 5.25 million votes counted. According to Guardian that's 64% of votes to be counted. That leaves about 2.95 million votes. The difference at the moment between Biden and Trump is 677 thousand. If there are 2 million votes remaining to be counted from the mail-in votes and Biden gets 78% of them then he'd get about 1.12 million more votes than Trump would get in the mail-in ballots. That's enough to close in the gap.

[alhoon]

The votes keep changing as we speak so don't expect full accuracy from them. So far, about 5.25 million votes counted. According to Guardian that's 64% of votes to be counted. That leaves about 2.95 million votes. The difference at the moment between Biden and Trump is 677 thousand. If there are 2 million votes remaining to be counted from the mail-in votes and Biden gets 78% of them then he'd get about 1.12 million more votes than Trump would get in the mail-in ballots. That's enough to close in the gap.

Of course, but there's a lot of ifs there PoVG.
If the vote is 64% and not 74% as abc gives it. If Biden has 78% of the vote-by-mail. If there are indeed 2 million votes remaining . If the remaining votes are counted on time and the courts don't stop the recount similar to how they gave Florida to Bush2 in 2000.

It is possible that Biden wins Pennsylvania, but not that likely. I would say... 35% for Biden to win.