USA elections 2020 - 2021

[Sir Adrian]

Imagine if Biden won this election and Trump ran again in 2024, basically as Biden 2.0, in terms of age and mental acuity

And who would support him? Let's be real, if Trump loses he is done with politics.

[alhoon]

To save time: The state to watch is Pennsylvania. Whomever wins Pennsylvania, wins.
What I mean is: If Trump wins Florida and loses Pennsylvania, he most probably loses. If Biden wins Pennsylvania he most probably wins.
I.e. if you have to watch ONE race, watch Pennsylvania. It will tell you all you need to know.

And who would support him?

If he loses in anything but a landslide?
The same people that supported him in 2015. Especially as they become angrier and angrier with Biden/Harris agenda and the economic stagnation. What I mean is that 80% of Republicans are happy with Trump. Trump will blame everything from 2021 to 2024 to his political opponents and as such he will some of them back. As such, he will quickly sweep the primaries with talk of "stolen elections".
After he secures the primaries, he will have an easy sailing to the 2nd term. Remember, in 2024 he WON'T be government, he will be the guy on the outside criticizing the government and Biden would be the one apologizing and explaining. What I mean is that if Trump loses with 260 electors too Biden's 280, Candidate Trump firing broadsides at the democrats for years will earn those 10 electors back.

You have to understand this Settra:
Obama in 2016 was wrong to have faith in the American people. One should never have faith in the electorate.
Everywhere in the world many of the voters are selfish. Many of the voters are naive. Many of the voters are stupid. And in USA, a great many of them are rightfully disgusted with the democrats.

[Alastor]

Weeks to get the results? You guys sound awfully cautious.

I predict a Biden victory tonight. Perhaps even a landslide.

[alhoon]

Weeks to get the results? You guys sound awfully cautious.

I predict a Biden victory tonight. Perhaps even a landslide.

And I predict whomever wins, will win with at most 15 electors.

Biden is also very likely to lose Florida. ~25% of vote in, the "Early stages that would give Biden an advantage because of mail voting" ... and Trump is ahead.

[Alastor]

And I predict whomever wins, will win with at most 15 electors.

Biden is also very likely to lose Florida. ~25% of vote in, the "Early stages that would give Biden an advantage because of mail voting" ... and Trump is ahead.

I lean more towards a Biden landslide than anything, we shall see.

Trump is likely to have a lead in many places early on as the results are turned in by county and the less populated counties will get their results counted first. Considering Trump is more popular in rural areas it makes sense to have that lead, but as the bigger urban centers start being called that will likely change.

[alhoon]

I lean more towards a Biden landslide than anything, we shall see.

Trump is likely to have a lead in many places early on as the results are turned in by county and the less populated counties will get their results counted first. Considering Trump is more popular in rural areas it makes sense to have that lead, but as the bigger urban centers start being called that will likely change.

It already did!
However, I don't see a strong enough advantage from Biden in Florida. Which is very surprising. When I say "I expect Trump to win Florida" I mean by 1% or something.
6 million votes in, out of expected 10-11M or something most of them postal votes. I kinda expected Biden to have like a +10 there.

[swabian]

Oh, right. There was something. My hope is on Biden. Full stop.

[alhoon]

Can someone tell me why ABC gives different results than BI?
It's not the small difference in votes. When BI was at 8 million votes, they had the result as B52, T48. ABC at 8M has it as B51, T49.

[antaeus]

Are they actual results or exit polls?

Are they using the same systems to process the results feed?

How long is a piece of string?

[Sir Adrian]

If he loses in anything but a landslide?
The same people that supported him in 2015. Especially as they become angrier and angrier with Biden/Harris agenda and the economic stagnation. What I mean is that 80% of Republicans are happy with Trump. Trump will blame everything from 2021 to 2024 to his political opponents and as such he will some of them back. As such, he will quickly sweep the primaries with talk of "stolen elections".
After he secures the primaries, he will have an easy sailing to the 2nd term. Remember, in 2024 he WON'T be government, he will be the guy on the outside criticizing the government and Biden would be the one apologizing and explaining. What I mean is that if Trump loses with 260 electors too Biden's 280, Candidate Trump firing broadsides at the democrats for years will earn those 10 electors back.

You have to understand this Settra:
Obama in 2016 was wrong to have faith in the American people. One should never have faith in the electorate.
Everywhere in the world many of the voters are selfish. Many of the voters are naive. Many of the voters are stupid. And in USA, a great many of them are rightfully disgusted with the democrats.

Yes, but why would the Republican party support him over someone younger, more energetic and with a better reputation. The only reason he was supported now is because he is the incumbent

[alhoon]

Yes, but why would the Republican party support him over someone younger, more energetic and with a better reputation. The only reason he was supported now is because he is the incumbent

Primaries. They will fight him tooth and nail and the voters will vote for him, exactly like in 2015.

Also, Trump won Florida according to BI. But IMO, it's a bit early to call.

[Alastor]

Biden has a lead in Texas. A lot of focus on Florida but if Biden actually wins Texas that's gonna be a political earthquake.

Houston and Dallas seem to be pushing Biden ahead currently.

[AsariCommando]

Biden has a lead in Texas. A lot of focus on Florida but if Biden actually wins Texas that's gonna be a political earthquake.

Houston and Dallas seem to be pushing Biden ahead currently.

Narrowly ahead with ~55% counted. Hopefully he pulls it through and we know the winner tonight. Trump needs to lose by a landslide to make it clear that fascism isn't acceptable.

[alhoon]

Biden has a lead in Texas. A lot of focus on Florida but if Biden actually wins Texas that's gonna be a political earthquake.

Very unlikely. But if Biden wins Texas, then the Republicans are over for a decade.

[Prodromos]

Looks like Hispanics are set to deliver Florida to Trump.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/stat...95907960254465

“We must have gotten obliterated by Hispanics.... defund the police killed us,” says top Miami Dem, citing a BLM backlash

Waving Che Guevara flags, even though it was by just a few, gets lots of attention in a community that sees him as a symbol of totalitarian butchery

Losing Florida has dropped Biden’s chances of winning the presidency in FiveThirtyEight’s model from 89 percent to 66 percent.

[alhoon]

Losing Florida has dropped Biden’s chances of winning the presidency in FiveThirtyEight’s model from 89 percent to 66 percent.

Which, should be noted, is what alhoon's prediction said.

[Prodromos]

Cocaine Mitch just won reelection. Democrats spent like $100 million against him

Edit: Looks like Cornyn has won reelection in Texas

[Nebaki]

Biden has a lead in Texas. A lot of focus on Florida but if Biden actually wins Texas that's gonna be a political earthquake.

Stop talking Hoax please Biden has not the lead in Texas. What is your Source Greek City Times?

[antaeus]

Very unlikely. But if Biden wins Texas, then the Republicans are over for a decade.

That would be the election right there. If it ends similarly to how it's sitting right now, it would be all over.

It would also be a really good hint to Republicans that their future lies in core conservative values rather than loud orange men from New York.

But realistically, I'd say city votes probably come in earlier than rural ones, so I'd expect to see Trump edge it later in the day.

I'd be more interested in Arizona later on. Even if Trump won PA, Texas, Kansas and NC which are all leaning Biden at this early stage, Arizona would do it for Biden. He seems to have a plethora of options.

On the other hand, if Trump clawed back Texas, Kansas and NC - which is entirely possible given how close they are then he has a pathway through PA and Arizona.

[Alastor]

Stop talking Hoax please Biden has not the lead in Texas. What is your Source Greek City Times?

The BBC actually, what the hell is the Greek City Times? Also WTF is your problem?

Trump has now caught up to Biden in Texas, with 2/3 of the votes counted.

Austin also went to Biden with over 70%. Even if Trump wins Texas this time, I'm wondering if the Republican hold on Texas will last. The urban centers seem to be leaning Democrat and as their population increases, how long before the whole state turns blue.