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Thread: USA elections 2020

  1. #201
    RedGuard's Avatar Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Biden was for TPP what are you on about. He still is, he just backtracked because he wants to win an election (in theory).

    neither party is tough on china because they see the writing on the wall.

    you're never going to have hawks on china because corporate america literally handed them thier balls on a silver platter. And China isn't stupid enough to start a shooting war with a U.S. ally, thats a neo-con wet dream, nothing more. We have people here on TWC frothing at the mouth for China to send tanks to Hong Kong, or navally invade Taiwan, but real life isn't Total War.

  2. #202
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by RedGuard View Post
    We have people here on TWC frothing at the mouth for China to send tanks to Hong Kong, or navally invade Taiwan, but real life isn't Total War.
    Speaking of "real life", care to name a single person on TWC "frothing at the mouth for China to send tanks to Hong Kong"?

  3. #203
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    they know who they are. The ones that support a new cold war. You know the kind of people that think America stands for Truth, Freedom, and Justice, and everyone else is a post-modern neo-marxist or a russian bot.

  4. #204
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by RedGuard View Post
    they know who they are. The ones that support a new cold war. You know the kind of people that think America stands for Truth, Freedom, and Justice, and everyone else is a post-modern neo-marxist or a russian bot.
    So no one? And does opposing Chinese actions in Hong Kong and Chinese actions and behavior against US allies make a person a neo-con?

  5. #205
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    So no one? And does opposing Chinese actions in Hong Kong and Chinese actions and behavior against US allies make a person a neo-con?
    supporting U.S. interventionism makes one a neo-con. Hong Kong isn't a U.S. ally, but even if it was, what does Hong Kong have to do with the United States? Are you willing to die to support Hong Kong's rights or should they do that themselves? which the majority don't even seem to want to do.

  6. #206
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by RedGuard View Post
    supporting U.S. interventionism makes one a neo-con.
    No it doesn't. Interventionism has existed for decades before that nifty buzzword was ever conned. Neo-conservatism has actual definition and its much much more than just inerventionism.

    Hong Kong isn't a U.S. ally, but even if it was, what does Hong Kong have to do with the United States?
    Plenty of financial interests and American citizens living in Hong Kong that could be affected by the current actions China is taking.

    Are you willing to die to support Hong Kong's rights or should they do that themselves? which the majority don't even seem to want to do.
    Who's says anyone needs to die to support Hong Kong's rights? You seem to have a rather simplistic view of this situation. I can think of many ways to confront China without ever having to fire a shot.
    Last edited by Vanoi; May 26, 2020 at 09:56 PM.

  7. #207

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by RedGuard View Post
    supporting U.S. interventionism makes one a neo-con. Hong Kong isn't a U.S. ally, but even if it was, what does Hong Kong have to do with the United States? Are you willing to die to support Hong Kong's rights or should they do that themselves? which the majority don't even seem to want to do.
    I don't support most foreign wars (Afghanistan, iffy, certainly should leave there now). I don't have to be a neocon to support the independence of persons from authoritarian dictators. The US certainly won't get involved in a shooting war with China, but I do hope Chinese oppression leads to economic realignment across the world where China is shunned. Should've happened after they invaded Tibet.

  8. #208
    RedGuard's Avatar Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    No it doesn't. Interventionism has existed for decades before that nifty buzzword was ever conned. Neo-conservatism has actual definition and its much much more than just inerventionism.
    thats one of hte hallmarks of neo conservativism though.


    Plenty of financial interests and American citizens living in Hong Kong that could be affected by the current actions China is taking.
    so here you give away the game too easily. America is only for democracy when it benefits U.S. capital, when it doesn't a right wing dictatorship like Thailand will suffice. China is so powerful because it was largely co-created by U.S. capital, and now they want to complain when the chickens come home to roost.


    Who's says anyone needs to die to support Hong Kong's rights? You seem to have a rather simplistic view of this situation. I can think of many ways to confront China without ever having to fire a shot.
    The problem is if a sizeable portion of them aren't at least willing to die for their cause, then they can forget about independence. And if Indpendence is not what they are for, then whats the point in even taking them seriously. Catalonia on the other hand has people that are actually nationalists. Hong Kong is a whining baby that is throwing a temper-tantrum that its no longer the most important economic city in china anymore and won't be again. Some of them want Trump and the USA to intervene to stop China, so that they can once again be a colony, but they aren't willing to fight for themselves, so them. Not to mention helping them would damage the USA's relationship with China for no reason when we are the benefactors of China's continued success. SO thus the political and economic factors are completely contradictory and made that way on purpose. Also many of the so called protestors aren't even chinese at this point. Nothing kills a protest movement faster than success.
    Last edited by RedGuard; May 27, 2020 at 01:15 AM.

  9. #209
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by RedGuard View Post
    they know who they are. The ones that support a new cold war. You know the kind of people that think America stands for Truth, Freedom, and Justice, and everyone else is a post-modern neo-marxist or a russian bot.
    This sounds suspiciously like a caricature. I wonder why that is.

  10. #210
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by RedGuard View Post
    thats one of hte hallmarks of neo conservativism though.
    Do you know how many ideologies have interventionism of some sort as a founding principle?


    so here you give away the game too easily. America is only for democracy when it benefits U.S. capital, when it doesn't a right wing dictatorship like Thailand will suffice.
    Welcome to reality. I didn't give anything away. In fact promoting democracy is not one of the reasons i mentioned earlier in confronting China.

    China is so powerful because it was largely co-created by U.S. capital, and now they want to complain when the chickens come home to roost.
    Ok?


    The problem is if a sizeable portion of them aren't at least willing to die for their cause,
    They don't need to.

    then they can forget about independence. And if Indpendence is not what they are for, then whats the point in even taking them seriously.
    See above. Already mentioned US interests in Hong Kong.


    Catalonia on the other hand has people that are actually nationalists. Hong Kong is a whining baby that is throwing a temper-tantrum that its no longer the most important economic city in china anymore and won't be again. Some of them want Trump and the USA to intervene to stop China, so that they can once again be a colony, but they aren't willing to fight for themselves, so them. Not to mention helping them would damage the USA's relationship with China for no reason when we are the benefactors of China's continued success. SO thus the political and economic factors are completely contradictory and made that way on purpose. Also many of the so called protestors aren't even chinese at this point. Nothing kills a protest movement faster than success.
    No one, not even Trump has advocated for military intervention or a colony in China.

    Do you have a sourve for ypur claim that the protesters in Hong Kong aren't even Chinese? Seems like a claim by you.

    I don't care about US-Chinese relations. As i pointed out and you ignored, China also has problems various with US allies in the region like Japan, or Taiwan, or India. This is going to hurt relations with China no matter. I see no reason to abandon US allies for the sake of China.

  11. #211
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

    So... At this point in time, compared to other PotUSes at the same day in their presidency Trump is:
    - A little less popular than Obama was (~5% difference)
    - Marginally less popular than Bush 2 was (~2% difference)
    - quite less popular than Clinton (big difference)
    - A little more popular than Bush 1 was (~3% difference)
    - quite less popular than Reagan (big difference)
    - A little more popular than Carter was (~3% difference)

    As such, Trump, at this point, is at the precipice. He's marginally more popular than recent presidents that LOST the election in their first term and less popular (from a little to a lot) to presidents that WON the election in their first term.

    As Trump's base is solid it is not easy to write him off whatever he does. But he doesn't have this in the bag yet like Clinton or Reagan did. If the other side coalesces strongly around the other old man that speaks nicer, he may lose.

    We will see what the future would bring.
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  12. #212
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

    So... At this point in time, compared to other PotUSes at the same day in their presidency Trump is:
    - A little less popular than Obama was (~5% difference)
    - Marginally less popular than Bush 2 was (~2% difference)
    - quite less popular than Clinton (big difference)
    - A little more popular than Bush 1 was (~3% difference)
    - quite less popular than Reagan (big difference)
    - A little more popular than Carter was (~3% difference)
    Its always so dumbfounding for a non-Yank like myself to see Bush I (knowledgeable and competent) was deeply unpopular and some of the stupidest presidents like Bush II and Reagan so popular. Well intentioned Carter who was trying to wean the US off its oil addiction is castigated.

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    As such, Trump, at this point, is at the precipice. He's marginally more popular than recent presidents that LOST the election in their first term and less popular (from a little to a lot) to presidents that WON the election in their first term.
    Bush II's popularity plummeted not because of his corrupt oil grab but because the economy tanked (the work a lot of presidents from both sides). Trump didn't make the Coironavirus crash but I think he will be made to pay.

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    As Trump's base is solid it is not easy to write him off whatever he does. But he doesn't have this in the bag yet like Clinton or Reagan did. If the other side coalesces strongly around the other old man that speaks nicer, he may lose.
    Trump's base got him over the line after a pretty intricate and unlikely developments. Of course the US does love an incumbent,, but they love money more and Trump happened to be around for the COVID 19 crash and I think he will get the blame however unfairly.

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    We will see what the future would bring.
    Frankly there's not much difference between the two parties right now. The Republicans mysteriously failed to vote down the ACA when they had the numbers, and the Democrats kept up Bush II's oil wars with gusto.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  13. #213

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    I
    Bush II's popularity plummeted not because of his corrupt oil grab but because the economy tanked (the work a lot of presidents from both sides). Trump didn't make the Coironavirus crash but I think he will be made to pay.



    Trump's base got him over the line after a pretty intricate and unlikely developments. Of course the US does love an incumbent,, but they love money more and Trump happened to be around for the COVID 19 crash and I think he will get the blame however unfairly.
    Bush II actually ran a campaign in 2004. Like, a legitimately good one. Trump's rote answer to everything economy, coronavirus, or George Floyd is legitimately "Stoke the base". Look, I'm not exactly a campaign professional, but in all the years I've just sat on the sidelines and watched, I've never not seen a nominee get their base. Trump shouldn't need to just stoke his base. He needs to campaign for the center that isn't defaulting for him.

    But, as you note with the way Bush I and Carter got hit(well, Carter more got hit for his missteps in Iran, not his economy), Trump really needs a pretty nice looking soap box to do more than stoke his base.

    Frankly there's not much difference between the two parties right now. The Republicans mysteriously failed to vote down the ACA when they had the numbers, and the Democrats kept up Bush II's oil wars with gusto.
    There's a trick cooked into the ACA that people don't account for when you make these statements. It's really easy to repeal, but it's hard to replace. There are a lot of red states that actually use the ACA and give their voters easy and simpler access to at least basic insurance. Every time they considered repealing it they never had anything to replace it with. I can't ever stop saying this. Governing is hard. If they want those offices they should be ready to do some work. Governing is hard.
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  14. #214
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    America Is in a New Cold War and This Time the Communists Might Win

    China's explicit desire to dominate the industries of the future is bad news for foreign multinational companies that have staked so much on the allure of the China market. If China's steep rise up the technology ladder continues, American and other foreign multinationals are likely to get turfed out of the market entirely. "China 2025 is all about replacing anything that American companies sell of any value, just taking the Americans out of that," says Stewart Paterson, author of China, Trade and Power, Why the West's Economic Engagement Has Failed.
    Donald Trump's tariffs, and China's public desire to dominate key industries, have pushed American multinational and U.S. policymakers to ask: should the U.S. get an economic divorce from Beijing? And if so, what would that look like?

    A smarter U.S. strategy than "divorce" is "economic distancing," says John Lee, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank. The goal of U.S. industrial policy should be "ensuring that China is not in a position to dominate key technologies and assume the leading role in dominating supply and value chains for these emerging technologies," he says. Rationing access to large and advanced markets is critical. "It becomes much more challenging [for Beijing] if China's access to markets in the U.S. Europe and East Asia is restricted, and it is denied key inputs from those areas."

    That presumes coordination with allies, which has not been a Trump administration strong suit. But that would change under a President Joe Biden. Even before the pandemic, key European and Asian allies were souring on their relations with China. That includes Canada as well. A former senior Canadian official said Ottawa wanted to work with Trump and the Europeans to map out a tougher, united front on trade. The only problem? "You were sanctioning our steel exports on 'national security grounds,'" this official says. "We are a NATO ally, for godssake!"

    The opportunity to work more closely to form a united front versus Beijing is something Biden advisers are intent on doing. A reconfigured Trans Pacific Partnership, which Barack Obama pushed, is likely the first order of business in a Biden administration—this time more explicitly targeted at excluding Beijing from free trade deals among U.S. allies.
    That is, if there is a Biden administration.

    https://www.newsweek.com/2020/06/05/...n-1504447.html
    Confronting Beijing must be a priority in this and every national election for the foreseeable future. Biden and every future candidate must make this case and follow through. Otherwise, the election of the POTUS will not alter the current trajectory.

  15. #215

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    In an unusual departure from its normal proceedings, the Biden campaign managed to make the news the other day and briefly hold the attention of the electorate by conferring with the Governor of Pennsylvania on how best to address our current difficulties.

    From which, one offers this as a soupçon

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Last edited by skh1; June 01, 2020 at 07:16 PM. Reason: Grammatical improvements
    "They took back all the airports." - President Donald J. Trump, July 4, 2019
    "You're a lying dog-faced pony soldier." - former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., February 9, 2020


  16. #216
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Frankly there's not much difference between the two parties right now. The Republicans mysteriously failed to vote down the ACA when they had the numbers, and the Democrats kept up Bush II's oil wars with gusto.
    Actually, you are not wrong there.


    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Confronting Beijing must be a priority in this and every national election for the foreseeable future. Biden and every future candidate must make this case and follow through. Otherwise, the election of the POTUS will not alter the current trajectory.
    I am not sure that the PotUS office, by itself, has the power to do much about it. You need more than tariffs to do that.
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  17. #217
    Legio_Italica's Avatar Lost in Limbo
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Plans are being discussed for former Vice President Joe Biden to attend the funeral services for George Floyd next Tuesday in Houston, but the arrangements have not been finalized, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    A Biden campaign spokesman on Tuesday declined to comment on whether there were plans to attend the funeral. An attorney for Floyd's family, Ben Crump, said Tuesday, "We understand that Vice President Biden will be in attendance." CNN has reached out directly to Crump for comment.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/polit...den/index.html
    I guess Biden saw Trump awkwardly posing in front of a DC church with a Bible and thought, “You call THAT a shameless photo op? You ain’t seen nothin yet!”

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    I am not sure that the PotUS office, by itself, has the power to do much about it. You need more than tariffs to do that.
    Of course. Congress and every Administration must work in unison. Sanctions. Divestment. Build the Pacific version of NATO that is just waiting to be created amongst those US allies directly threatened by Beijing. Give Taiwan every aid and support, up to and including nukes if their government desires them. Until the balance of power is restored in the region, there will be no refuge from the Politburo’s designs.

  18. #218
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Build the Pacific version of NATO that is just waiting to be created amongst those US allies directly threatened by Beijing. Give Taiwan every aid and support, up to and including nukes if their government desires them. Until the balance of power is restored in the region, there will be no refuge from the Politburo’s designs.
    This single Sentences has more political value then anything the white house has done the last three years. The only possible way to keep China in check and nullify North Korea.

  19. #219

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post

    I am not sure that the PotUS office, by itself, has the power to do much about it. You need more than tariffs to do that.
    Congress has spent 60 years signing powers over to the Presidency by law, but even then. To really do anything, all three branches would have to work in lockstep. Just picture the courts disagreeing with what they're doing.
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  20. #220
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post

    Of course. Congress and every Administration must work in unison. Sanctions. Divestment. Build the Pacific version of NATO that is just waiting to be created amongst those US allies directly threatened by Beijing. Give Taiwan every aid and support, up to and including nukes if their government desires them. Until the balance of power is restored in the region, there will be no refuge from the Politburo’s designs.
    Yes. I can applaud when a liberal says something sensible. The first step is to level the trade field and then start bringing jobs back to the west.

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