View Poll Results: Who would you vote for in the 2020 US Presidential elections?

Voters
78. You may not vote on this poll
  • Donald Trump - Mike Pence (Republicans)

    34 43.59%
  • Joe Biden - Kamala Harris (Democrats)

    37 47.44%
  • Jo Jorgensen - Spike Cohen (Libertarians)

    4 5.13%
  • Howie Hawkins - Angela Walker (Greens)

    0 0%
  • Other (please, specify)

    3 3.85%
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Thread: USA elections 2020 - 2021

  1. #1781
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Was drinking my morning coffee, checking how the debate went, avoided partisan news and went to BBC.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54645608

    So... they both lied their butts off but Trump lied... LESS?!?!?
    What the... I really didn't expect that.
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  2. #1782

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Biden was humiliated at some point. "Joe, who built the cages?". *Silence*
    Moderator was good.

    I think Trump really managed to deliver the message to Americans which is follows "this guy is about to do so many great things but he did not do any of it when he was vice-president, why?".

  3. #1783

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    The bar was set so low for Trump tonight. Basically he only had to remember to put on pants and not leer at Ivanka, but he still lost.

    I get the feeling Trump even knows this Hunter Biden stuff is weak. He didn't go hard on it and left a lot of "maybe....perhaps...."

  4. #1784
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Vardano View Post
    I think Trump really managed to deliver the message to Americans which is follows "this guy is about to do so many great things but he did not do any of it when he was vice-president, why?".
    Uh... because he was there to deliver someone else's vision? What a stupid thing to say. Do you think Pence has had any say what so ever over things Trump wants to do? SMH.

    Either way... it was definitely a better debate. It was nice to see discussion!

    AP have done a fairly good fact check...

    Trump's biggest lies and obfuscations? Almost anything to do with Coronavirus, migrants, climate change, his taxes, Hunter Biden...

    Biden's biggest lies and obfuscations? Poor Boys, Obamacare and ironically, Coronavirus.

    There was nothing new here. Nobody will change their vote over it. Although, with Trump being so far behind in the polls, he really needed something big to come out of this debate. Nothing did. So even though I think Trump probably had the better debate, Biden will come away better off out of it.


    Quote Originally Posted by tgoodenow View Post
    Biden shotgun blast to his own foot:

    “Would he close down the oil industry?” Trump asked. “Would you close down the oil industry?”

    “I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” Biden responded.

    What an idiotic thing to say 12 days before an election.
    Seems like a well calculated play for the middle/undecided voters to me. Given that up to 2/3 of American voters would prefer politicians to do more about carbon emissions. And that middle or weakly partisan voters tend to lean towards climate change being at least somewhat important when deciding how they'll vote..
    Last edited by antaeus; October 23, 2020 at 07:59 AM.
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  5. #1785
    Sir Adrian's Avatar the Imperishable
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by tgoodenow View Post
    Joe Biden came for a wrestling match and instead got man handled in a policy debate. Moderator neutrality and debate format were the best situation I've seen since I' started following politics in 2008. Would prefer full cutaway from non-speaking candidate during two minutes of mute as well.

    Biden shotgun blast to his own foot:

    “Would he close down the oil industry?” Trump asked. “Would you close down the oil industry?”

    “I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” Biden responded.

    What an idiotic thing to say 12 days before an election.

    And yet transitioning from oil is a process that whoever wins will have to start taking seriously. There are about 42 years of oil left - unless we discover some massive new fields somewhere. That means that America has 30 year frame in which it can cut oil completely and be able to comfortably manage the economic side-effects.
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  6. #1786

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Vardano View Post
    Biden was humiliated at some point. "Joe, who built the cages?". *Silence*
    Moderator was good.
    I think Trump really managed to deliver the message to Americans which is follows "this guy is about to do so many great things but he did not do any of it when he was vice-president, why?".
    So, we, the Americans, don't know the difference between a president and a vice president?


    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    Was drinking my morning coffee, checking how the debate went, avoided partisan news and went to BBC.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54645608
    So... they both lied their butts off but Trump lied... LESS?!?!?
    What the... I really didn't expect that.


    Where in that article does it say that?
    Last edited by PointOfViewGun; October 23, 2020 at 08:00 AM.
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  7. #1787

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    I have no idea what this "Critical Race Theory" is,
    I don't believe you. But just for the sale of argument, imagine National Socialism, only with some of the vocabulary exchanged.


    but it sounds like something completely unrelated to the fact that Trump supporters worship a conman who despises them.
    And that makes them different from Harris/Biden supporters how?


    Nice try. The public now knows-because the committee Marco Rubio leads has told us-that Vladimir Putin's government targeted U.S. elections for the express purpose of helping elevate Trump to power. We also know the Republican's political operation sought Russian assistance, embraced Russian assistance, capitalized on Russian assistance, lied about Russian assistance, and took steps to obstruct the investigation into Russian assistance.

    During the 2016 campaign, Trump's campaign chairman was in direct, frequent, and secret communication with a Russian intelligence officer, tasked by the Kremlin with helping run Moscow's influence operations abroad. Trump's operation shared internal information with the Russian operative during its attack on our elections.

    The same Senate Intelligence Committee report documented the Trump campaign's willingness to assist the Russian attack on our election, amplifying the leaks of Democratic materials stolen by Kremlin-linked operatives, and highlighted "coordination" between Team Trump and Wikileaks, which was responsible for releasing the documents stolen by Russia.

    The report at one point literally describes a "direct tie between senior Trump Campaign officials and the Russian intelligence services."

    That's not the assessment of news organizations or Democratic lawmakers exclusively; it's a quote from the report issued by the Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee.
    And that makes this recent scoop Russia's doing, too? Where's the evidence? And how is it different from the other side getting help from abroad?

  8. #1788
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    There are about 42 years of oil left - unless we discover some massive new fields somewhere.
    Completely and utterly wrong.

    1. Oil reserves:
    How much oil is left depends on... the price of oil. For those of us that were old enough to be in the mineral resources engineering in 2001, we were told that "world economy would crush if oil remained above 30$ per barrel! As such, the remaining reserves are for 20-25 years because there's NO WAY we would get the oil that costs more. "
    Woops.

    Apparently, now if oil drops to 30-40$ per barrel it is huge concern.


    2: consumption fluctuates.
    As such we don't know how much oil we will consume in the future.

    3: We can make oil from coal deposits. We can also make biodiesel.


    So, no, we don't have "oil for just 42 years".
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
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  9. #1789
    Sir Adrian's Avatar the Imperishable
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Oil reserves do not depend on the price of oil, the price of oil depends on oil reserves. Making a commodity more expensive does not render it immune to scarcity. The entire correlation at 1. is a false equivalency. If a commodity is scarce and in demand it will be produced / mined no matter the cost because your profit margin is guaranteed regardless if it costs 30 dollars per barrel or 150.


    Right now the totality of all oil sources on earth, that we know of, amount to ~43 times the oil consumption for the whole year of 2016. Yes consumption does fluctuate, but so far consumption has always increased, which is why I said America has 30 years to get off oil neatly. As does every other country in the world.


    Biodiesel and LNG are not oil, they're fuel alternatives. However the problem is larger since oil is not used only for fuel. Last year 27% of the oil consumption was used to make 13 critical non-fuel commodities, such as various plastics, electronic parts, etc. You need to find replacements for that too. You can't just grow a field of rape and be rid of your oil addiction.

    Right now the EU is looking at several ways of replacing oil almost completely by 2045, and the next president should start doing the same while there is time to explore solutions and gradually phase it out.
    Last edited by Sir Adrian; October 23, 2020 at 08:57 AM.
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  10. #1790
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    Oil reserves do not depend on the price of oil, the price of oil depends on oil reserves.

    This is wrong. Reserves is defined as the economically profitable part of the deposit. As prices raise, more and more oil reservoirs are becoming reserves and greater parts of existing reservoirs are considered reserves.
    I will tell you this: From an oil reservoir about 20% of the reserves is taken using conventional means. The unconventional means of exploitation are expensive and require at the time an oil price of 60$-70$ per barrel.

    Do you remember all those doom & gloom predictions of the 70s that said that oil will end up in the 80s? They were right. The oil they meant, the one you could take by simply drilling and not by pumping, has indeed been eclipsed. However, the price of oil in the 80s rose many-fold ... so pumping became a very lucrative method and the reserves were quadrupled.
    Because it was profitable to do it.
    "Nobody could predict that oil would go above 10$ per barrel!!!!111oneoneone" scream the disgraced doom-and-gloomers as we laugh at them.

    Those 2016x43 reserves you mention, assume an oil price below 70$/barrel. If you put the price per barrel at 150$-200$ per barrel, believe me the size of oil reserves explodes.


    See here.


    The reason the Saudis kicked down the price of oil barrel in 2014 and the reason the USA oil industry was crying and pulling their hairs about it was not to hit the Russians. It was because the Saudis wanted to put severe pressure on USA's shale oil that is very expensive to be drilled.

    And yes, Fracking is unconventional oil production method. It allows you take a larger part of the reservoir but it is very expensive... or very polluting. If you hear Fracking with the price of oil below 40$/barrel and it is profitable, there are crimes against humanity taking place there.
    You need at the very least 50$/barrel and I would say 70$ per barrel to do Fracking right.

    Also, if you ban Fracking in USA, the USA oil reserves will fall and sharply. The oil doesn't disappear, but since you cannot legally extract it, it stops being reserves.

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    Biodiesel and LNG are not oil, they're fuel alternatives.
    LNG yes, Synthetic oil, no. Biodiesel... perhaps. I would still call it oil. It is a similar mix of the same liquid hydrocarbons like the oil you produce from the refinery.
    Last edited by alhoon; October 23, 2020 at 01:29 PM.
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  11. #1791

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Biden started strong but seemed to peter out in the second half. His answer on criminal justice was incredibly weak; I expect it'll cost him with black voters, but that might not matter if he improves enough on Hillary's numbers with white voters. He was also somewhat weak on 'climate change' and immigration, but on everything else he seemed to wipe the floor with Trump. Overall it was probably Biden's (and Trump's) strongest debate performance to date.

    Hard to say who'll win the election, though. Biden is a lot weaker than the polls would suggest. Not as weak as Hillary was in 2016, but I think Trump is still favored to win, mainly because he's the incumbent and the Democratic Party is just too far left for many people's taste.
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  12. #1792
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Prodromos View Post
    Hard to say who'll win the election, though. Biden is a lot weaker than the polls would suggest. Not as weak as Hillary was in 2016, but I think Trump is still favored to win, mainly because he's the incumbent and the Democratic Party is just too far left for many people's taste.
    I still think that Trump has 1/3 to win.

    But the reason Biden is weaker has to do in my opinion mainly with the way the elections are handled:
    The postal vote.

    47 million votes so far out of an expected 160 million voters.
    But from we hear from various articles based on registered Democrats and Republicans, the Democrats are heavily outpacing the Republicans in postal vote.

    As such, let's say that by the elections, 100 Million people vote in person and 60M by mail.
    From the 60M that vote by mail, I would expect Trump to have 20M or so votes and Biden to have 40M or so votes. A great lead of 40M votes for Biden...

    And then, comes the problems with the postal vote. Aside of it being a more difficult process (the envelop should be sealed correctly in another envelop etc) you have the hostility of the incumbent and the Republican machine against it.
    So, I fully expect that 10M of these postal votes would be considered invalid for various reasons or not be counted on time etc.
    That means Trump loses 3M votes and Biden loses 7M votes.
    That's a net loss of 4M votes for Biden.
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  13. #1793

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidin View Post
    You don't win the presidency by attacking the candidate's son. Plain and simple.

    I want you to remember one simple fact from 2016. One simple fact. It wasn't Crooked Chelsea he was screaming at every rally.

    If the best he has is Crooked Hunter he's lost already.
    Hunter's emails show that Joe was involved in his corrupt dealings in Ukraine and China, essentially using his position as VP to enrich himself. Makes perfect sense to attack Biden over that. It sound like someone is just salty over evidence being presented that their favored Democrat candidate is a corrupt politician.

  14. #1794
    Sir Adrian's Avatar the Imperishable
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    This is wrong. Reserves is defined as the economically profitable part of the deposit. As prices raise, more and more oil reservoirs are becoming reserves and greater parts of existing reservoirs are considered reserves.
    I will tell you this: From an oil reservoir about 20% of the reserves is taken using conventional means. The unconventional means of exploitation are expensive and require at the time an oil price of 60$-70$ per barrel.
    Hold up one second. I think we are talking of different things here. When I hear the word reserve, that means to me a resource that is surveyed and quantified but is purposefully being kept from extraction.

    Synthetic oil, no
    Has synthetic oil ever successfully covered for a shortage of natural oil so far?
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  15. #1795
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    Hold up one second. I think we are talking of different things here. When I hear the word reserve, that means to me a resource that is surveyed and quantified but is purposefully being kept from extraction.
    Whether the surveyed resource would be extracted though, depends on whether it is profitable and legal to do so.
    And profitability very much depends on the price of the commodity. Virtually all current oil fields would not be considered reserves 40 years ago when the price per barrel was like 2-3$. They were not being counted. See here an article of 1975. Back then, we considered just 103B metric tons (650 billion barrels) as reserves, with a consumption of 2.8B/year.
    Now, 45 years from that doom & gloom prediction, the reserves are considered 1650 Billion barrels!!!!
    I.e. the reserves jumped from 650B barrels to 1650 billion barrels in 45 years.

    When we say a reservoir has been "Exhausted" nowdays we mean that we have taken like 25%-30% from the oil in place and left the 70% because it was too expensive to extract.



    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    Has synthetic oil ever successfully covered for a shortage of natural oil so far?
    Some history books would lie and tell you that the Germans used it successfully. (Wikipedia: In total, CTL provided 92% of Germany's air fuel and over 50% of its petroleum supply in the 1940s.)
    My answer is "no, certainly not."

    However that were are not producing synthetic oil in significant quantities does not mean we cannot. It simply means it is not profitable (and very polluting).

    The reason EU is moving away from oil is mostly because of emissions and secondary because oil is becoming too expensive.

    But as far as oil is concerned? If environmental regulations are set aside, we can have oil for as long as humanity exists.
    Which will not be for long if we set environmental regulations aside and start liquifying coal.
    Last edited by alhoon; October 23, 2020 at 03:47 PM.
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  16. #1796

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    But as far as oil is concerned? If environmental regulations are set aside, we can have oil for as long as humanity exists.
    Which will not be for long if we set environmental regulations aside and start liquifying coal.
    I love your catch-22s.

    The dirty secret to all this is transitions actually take a good while to do. Researching new technology. Then making new technology cheap enough to be viable. Then replacing current technology with new technology.

    You know what American companies are investing a lot in solar because they know, whether they like it or not, we're moving away from fossil fuels? Oil companies. Of course, we're not yet at that last stage of replacing their technology so, their workers in numbers don't really know that. But if you read the tech news... They're transitioning to becoming power(source) companies. Not oil companies. Whether that power source is oil or solar panels, they're transitioning to working it for money.

    The American fossil fuel companies not smart enough to make that transition? Fine with me, they can go out of business while their workers send their resumes to the ones smart enough to have made that transition.
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  17. #1797

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    The simplier explanation is that solar and wind power are not sustainable and are essentially a type of sneak oil peddled to the public by fossil companies to distract from the actual solution, which is clean and safe nuclear power.

  18. #1798

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    The simplier explanation is that solar and wind power are not sustainable and are essentially a type of sneak oil peddled to the public by fossil companies to distract from the actual solution, which is clean and safe nuclear power.
    Problem being nobody wants a huge ass nuclear power plant so no new ones with good safety features are being built. The newest one that exists got built in something like the 80s without anything resembling modern safety features. And its getting a bit old for what it's trying to do.

    Now, if you built them as small as what powers a nuclear submarine and spread them around the area...
    One thing is for certain: the more profoundly baffled you have been in your life, the more open your mind becomes to new ideas.
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  19. #1799

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidin View Post
    The dirty secret to all this is transitions actually take a good while to do. Researching new technology. Then making new technology cheap enough to be viable. Then replacing current technology with new technology.
    Well yes, but this is (as far as I understand) the point where Biden screwed the pooch in the debate. He should've emphasized that transitions take time and that even with him forcing the issue, getting off oil would take a long time, probably decades, and would be a gradual process. Enough time for the workforce to adapt. After all, he's now, in the actual election, vying for votes from normal people, not lunatics who want 100% "sustainable" energy NOW (or else the planet is doomed!!!11).

  20. #1800
    alhoon's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/u...biden-won.html

    Is that kind of threat even legal in the USA?
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