View Poll Results: Who would you vote for in the 2020 US Presidential elections?

Voters
65. You may not vote on this poll
  • Donald Trump - Mike Pence (Republicans)

    28 43.08%
  • Joe Biden - Kamala Harris (Democrats)

    31 47.69%
  • Jo Jorgensen - Spike Cohen (Libertarians)

    3 4.62%
  • Howie Hawkins - Angela Walker (Greens)

    0 0%
  • Other (please, specify)

    3 4.62%
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Thread: USA elections 2020

  1. #1861

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    MAGA scrambles to repair the Hunter Biden narrative

    Weeks ago, when Rudy Giuluani first threw the contents of Hunter Biden’s alleged laptop online, he promised a trove of even more damning information 10 days before the election.

    Yet with less than a week to go, Giuliani, President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, is still moving down the conservative media food chain, looking for takers.

    The Wall Street Journal and Fox News have both reported finding no evidence that former Vice President Joe Biden benefited from the Hunter Biden business dealings that have drawn scrutiny. More explicitly pro-Trump media outlets — OAN, Breitbart, Newsmax — have mostly shied away from publishing fresher, more salacious allegations. And conservative talking heads — pundits, politicians and loud MAGA Twitter personalities alike — have been more focused on the meta narrative around the laptop, arguing that mainstream media, social media companies and the deep state are conspiring to prevent President Donald Trump’s reelection by suppressing the story.
    Between frantic cries to have Biden arrested, accusing him of everything from child molestation to treason, Republicans still haven't managed to find a shred of proof of any wrongdoing. Even Trump's followers are getting impatient. There were supposed to be mass arrests by now.

    Of course those of us who don't worship infantile buffoons known the reason there's been no arrests is there's NO CRIME to arrest anyone over. The laptop BS is just that... BS. It's a Russian propaganda operation and everyone in the DOJ and FBI knows it. Rudy is more likely to end up in prison than Hunter Biden.

    You'd think after all the failed conspiracy theories the right has drudged up over the last 30 or so years, all of them going nowhere, their voters might one day wake up and wonder "Am I being lied to?"

  2. #1862

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Between frantic cries to have Biden arrested, accusing him of everything from child molestation to treason, Republicans still haven't managed to find a shred of proof of any wrongdoing.
    Um, what?

  3. #1863
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    So the voter turnout seems very large, is that really bad for Trump's chances?

    He's an offensive candidate and conventional wisdom is he won last time by keeping the voter turnout small so base mobilisation was more significant.

    If this is so then the Democrats choice of a flavourless pawn as candidate looks effective. Biden won't keep many people home, his corruption and nepotism is familiar and comfortable for most people in the US.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  4. #1864
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Some serious Analysis of Election probabilities

    Elector (and winning) results based on 50000 simulations.
    I got the poll aggregates from 538 at 28th of October 2020. I made a number of "voter blocks" equal to 350 + electors x50. I.e. Pennsylvania (20 electors) has 1350 "voter blocks" while Alaska (3 electors) has 500 "voter blocks". I assigned to each "voter block" a chance to vote for Trump, Biden or independent based on the aggregate state polls of 538.
    I adjusted based on a few assumptions.

    Whomever wins the state, wins the electors. For Nebraska and Maine, each district gives one elector and the state winner gets the state's 2 electors.
    Then, I tallied the electors for each candidate. No state was won by independents. Sorry West, Sorry Libertarians, Sorry Greens. Better luck next time.

    Assumptions:

    • 1% "hidden" Trump vote (I.e. voters that said they will vote for Biden but will vote for Trump)
    • slightly higher enthusiasm for Republicans and ability to "bring out" their voters. I.e. slightly more Republican leaning voters would actually vote than Democrat leaning ones.
    • About 2% of the mailed votes will be considered invalid or arrive to late to count. Of these, 60% will be for Biden and 40% for Trump.
    • The Republicans will not stop the counting of mailed votes, at least in states that matter.


    NOTE: I consider as a "tie" everything below 273 electors. I.e. if the "winner" ends up with 269-272 electors, it will be the rogue electors of the electoral college that will call the election.




    As you can see, in the 2020 USA elections there's a 13% chance that the rogue electors will be the ones deciding the election.
    Last edited by alhoon; October 28, 2020 at 06:49 PM.
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  5. #1865
    antaeus's Avatar Whataboutery
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Only a splash of outcome bias there eh 'hoon?

    Your source website gives Trump an 11 in 100 chance of winning based on their exhaustive simulations. Did you just keep tweaking the numbers until you got a draw?
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MARENOSTRUM

  6. #1866

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    MAGA scrambles to repair the Hunter Biden narrative



    Between frantic cries to have Biden arrested, accusing him of everything from child molestation to treason, Republicans still haven't managed to find a shred of proof of any wrongdoing. Even Trump's followers are getting impatient. There were supposed to be mass arrests by now.

    Of course those of us who don't worship infantile buffoons known the reason there's been no arrests is there's NO CRIME to arrest anyone over. The laptop BS is just that... BS. It's a Russian propaganda operation and everyone in the DOJ and FBI knows it. Rudy is more likely to end up in prison than Hunter Biden.

    You'd think after all the failed conspiracy theories the right has drudged up over the last 30 or so years, all of them going nowhere, their voters might one day wake up and wonder "Am I being lied to?"
    You obviously haven't watched the video of Hunter Biden getting a footjob. It is clearly his laptop. If one of Trump's kids had these types of pictures out there, they would be splattered all over the newspapers. Tony Bobulinski interview confirms so much of the Biden corruption. The MSM refuses to cover it while Facebook and Twitter are on a rampage muting conservatives pages to prevent it from spreading.

  7. #1867
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    Only a splash of outcome bias there eh 'hoon?

    Your source website gives Trump an 11 in 100 chance of winning based on their exhaustive simulations. Did you just keep tweaking the numbers until you got a draw?
    Nope. I said exactly what I did.
    My source cannot openly account for "The Republicans will cheat more than the Democrats" and "The Rural areas, heavily republican have a much easier time voting in person than COVID-hit cities that the Democrats rely on"

    They DO ACCOUNT for population density, but I don't think they calculated the COVID problems to voting well enough.
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  8. #1868

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    538's numbers just got thrown out of wack and so did everybody else's because Barret stood back from the NC case and let them keep counting absentee ballets that came in for 9 days as long as they were marked by election day.

    So if you're gonna get into an argument with numbers, wait a day or five.
    One thing is for certain: the more profoundly baffled you have been in your life, the more open your mind becomes to new ideas.
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  9. #1869

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by tgoodenow View Post
    You obviously haven't watched the video of Hunter Biden getting a footjob. It is clearly his laptop.
    I have a just as credible picture of Trump performing unspeakable acts on a donkey:

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


    Rudy himself said there was a "50/50 chance" his source was a Russian agent. He was then caught with his hand down his pants thinking he was about to get lucky with a girl he was told was 15. So forgive me if I don't believe a word you or him have to say.

    If one of Trump's kids had these types of pictures out there, they would be splattered all over the newspapers.
    You don't suppose that might be because Trump is the president and his kids work in the White House? Nah, must just be everyone picking on the poor oppressed billionaires again. It sure is hard being born rich huh?

    Tony Bobulinski interview confirms so much of the Biden corruption.
    Lie lie and lie some more. He lost out on a deal and this is his revenge. He's as petty and twisted as a Trump.

    The MSM refuses to cover it
    Like how they refused to cover Obama being a secret Kenyan Muslim? Here's the thing, the media is under no obligation to cover the latest Republican/Russian smear job.

    while Facebook and Twitter are on a rampage muting conservatives pages to prevent it from spreading.
    See above. These companies are tired of being used to promote your baseless slanders.

    I mean, by now, aren't you just a little embarrassed by how these things turn out? You were saying that Sessions was going to indict Clinton. Then it was the Horowitz investigation. Then it was Bash and the unmasking. Then it was "just you wait! Durham is going to indict everyone!"

    And now you're surprised voters don't believe or care about this?

    Just accept it, you got nothing, you'll get nothing, its yet another conspiracy hoax you ate up.
    Last edited by Coughdrop addict; October 29, 2020 at 04:13 AM.

  10. #1870
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidin View Post
    538's numbers just got thrown out of wack and so did everybody else's because Barret stood back from the NC case and let them keep counting absentee ballets that came in for 9 days as long as they were marked by election day.

    So if you're gonna get into an argument with numbers, wait a day or five.
    Well, my predictions remain the same regardless.
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  11. #1871

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Your predictions never account for change of variables. It’s why they never modify.
    One thing is for certain: the more profoundly baffled you have been in your life, the more open your mind becomes to new ideas.
    -Neil deGrasse Tyson

    Let's think the unthinkable, let's do the undoable. Let us prepare to grapple with the ineffable itself, and see if we may not eff it after all.

  12. #1872
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    A black city councilman in Flint, Mich. has endorsed Trump. He is a lifelong Democrat:

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...ndorses-trump/

    It's just more proof that all those polls that are giving Biden "X" percentage of the black vote might be way off.

    @Alhoon, post#1864. If I'm not mistaken Hillary Clinton is an Elector for the state of New York. If Trump wins the state and she gives her vote to Biden things could get sour pretty quick.

  13. #1873
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidin View Post
    Your predictions never account for change of variables. It’s why they never modify.
    Never is a big word... I will simply do option 2 you said above.

    wait a day or five
    I will wait a few days and run it again at 1st of November.
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  14. #1874
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post

    @Alhoon, post#1864. If I'm not mistaken Hillary Clinton is an Elector for the state of New York.
    Wait, what?

    Trump won't win NY, but ... what?!?!
    Who made the wife of a PotUS, twice senator of the state and presidential candidate against the running ticket an elector?!

    OMG, you are right!
    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/p...or/6065216002/
    Last edited by alhoon; October 29, 2020 at 02:30 PM.
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  15. #1875
    Legio_Italica's Avatar Lost in Limbo
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Hardly surprising. Electors are chosen by the state political parties. Itís the main reason faithless electors arenít much of a thing. Pros and cons Iím sure.

  16. #1876

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by tgoodenow View Post
    You obviously haven't watched the video of Hunter Biden getting a footjob. It is clearly his laptop. If one of Trump's kids had these types of pictures out there, they would be splattered all over the newspapers. Tony Bobulinski interview confirms so much of the Biden corruption. The MSM refuses to cover it while Facebook and Twitter are on a rampage muting conservatives pages to prevent it from spreading.
    Ironically, idiotic attempts by journos and Sillicon Valley CEOs to cover up Hunter story is the reason why it spread like wildfire. Biden's campaign would have been hurt much less, if they admitted the truth of those allegations, Joe publicly denounced Hunter and apologized for his involvements in corrupt foreign schemes. But instead they decided to double-down on the whole "its fake" narrative despite the fact that evidence of the opposite is freely available on the Internet, mainly thanks to attention drawn to the leaks by the failed censorship attempts.
    The question here is whether this lack of rationality stems from bioleninist negative selection over the last few years within the Democrat party brass, or they simply assumed that losing an election is better then potentially compromising Communist China, who is a major supporter of Democrats in USA, as the leaks have shown.

  17. #1877
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Hardly surprising. Electors are chosen by the state political parties. Itís the main reason faithless electors arenít much of a thing. Pros and cons Iím sure.
    True, my father also pointed out that. He told me "Yes, the democrats are putting the most biased electors they can so they would make sure their party gets their votes. I assume the same for the Republicans".

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Ironically, idiotic attempts by journos and Sillicon Valley CEOs to cover up Hunter story is the reason why it spread like wildfire. Biden's campaign would have been hurt much less, if they admitted the truth of those allegations, Joe publicly denounced Hunter and apologized for his involvements in corrupt foreign schemes. But instead they decided to double-down on the whole "its fake" narrative despite the fact that evidence of the opposite is freely available on the Internet, mainly thanks to attention drawn to the leaks by the failed censorship attempts.
    The question here is whether this lack of rationality stems from bioleninist negative selection over the last few years within the Democrat party brass, or they simply assumed that losing an election is better then potentially compromising Communist China, who is a major supporter of Democrats in USA, as the leaks have shown.


    I disagree with about everything in this post.
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  18. #1878

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    I disagree with about everything in this post.
    Censorship never works. Censoring any content is, well, advertising it. Facebook and Twitter made it out of their way that everyone knows about Hunter's laptop and its contents. Disagree with it all you want, but information suppression doesn't really work the way censorship supporters think it would work. Even in 2016 they never really got to the point where they'd try and censor Wikileaks.

  19. #1879

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Censorship never works. Censoring any content is, well, advertising it. Facebook and Twitter made it out of their way that everyone knows about Hunter's laptop and its contents. Disagree with it all you want, but information suppression doesn't really work the way censorship supporters think it would work. Even in 2016 they never really got to the point where they'd try and censor Wikileaks.
    If your side thinks they're really censoring someone they need legislators with the balls to legislate instead of pontificate and ironically undeletedly tweet out that pontification for brownie points with voters. Until then, CEOs get to make their own policy as long as that policy doesn't break the law. Don't like that, change the law.
    One thing is for certain: the more profoundly baffled you have been in your life, the more open your mind becomes to new ideas.
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  20. #1880

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Here's what I think is going to happen to Trumpism, in 4 steps:

    1. Losses.
    The death of a cult of personality begins with losses. Anyone who has been paying attention at all will know it's been one loss after another with these groups ever since Trump won:

    First, they lost on The Wall. They tried to frame this loss as anything but what it was, but the truth was obvious to anyone looking: Trump supporters lost a lot. They were scammed out of their money by Bannon and other con artists, outed as xenophobes who irrationally hated and feared people with dark skin. The result was Trump supporters doubling down and claiming a win when they didn't actually have one.

    If the wall was a defeat, BLM was a punch in the gut. We saw hand-wringing and arguments that it was overturning the natural order and was the end of days. Predictions of white male genocide were thrown about with abandon. None of that has proven true and this, again, has Trumpism doubling down and getting even crazier in pursuit of ideological purity, arguing that BLM is a communist plot, when everyone familiar knows the reason is a brutal police culture that sees deadly violence as the first and often only tactic when dealing with Black suspects.

    Covid-19 is the third time they've gotten exposed. They parroted everything Trump said: that it was a hoax, nothing more than a cold, was going to miraculously go away, that whatever he was pushing this week would cure it, ect. They deflected to Obama, blamed everyone but Trump for how bad things have gotten, anything to distract from Trump's abysmal handling of the pandemic. Then Woodward's book revealed Trump had lied through his teeth, knew it was serious, and simply couldn't care less how many Americans died. The result has been, again, more doubling down, this time to the point where they've chased away too many moderates and begun an unstoppable slide into extremism.

    2.Circular Firing Squads
    Once the dust settles from the election, Trumpists will be looking, desperately, for someone to scapegoat for the loss. It will start with blaming the usual suspects - women, minorities, LGBT people, and of course zillions of illegal votes - but that will soon lose effect because the victory will clearly involve white men in addition to other groups and will be such a massive landslide that even they will realize it couldn't have been all illegal votes. So they will have to cast a wider and wider net. It just has to be someone else's fault!

    Why won't they admit that their ideology led to the loss? Because Trumpism sees the world in black and white. You're either with them or you are the enemy, and being with them means complete capitulation to the party line as embodied by the leader. But when the party line leads to loss after loss, it gets harder to justify, especially when that party line begins with delusional thinking such as believing half the country are communists.

    When the dust settles, and the group is forced to confront the realization that their own ideology led to the loss, they will react differently depending on who is involved. Rank and file members will head for greener pastures or suggest changing the party line. The true believers have no choice, as we've seen, but to double down. They feel like giving even an inch of ground is surrendering the moral righteousness of their cause. This will inevitably lead to fracturing as the rank and file point out the obvious, which is that they're losing. The leadership will crack down hard on such talk, but this only causes more of it, and soon nothing can silence the sheer volume of dissent.

    It's critical to note that unlike most stable movements, Trumpism is extremely reliant on force of personality to keep all of the various groups working together. Trump is practically worshiped, as is anyone he supports. This central focus tends to result in very powerful leaders, but also acts as an Achilles' heel. If one of the leaders is discredited it forces them to circle the wagons and waste resources and time defending someone who would have been cut loose anywhere else (Flynn for instance), sacrificing their credibility in the process. If one of the leaders is discredited to the point that even Trump supporters can no longer defend them (such as Bannon), it can shake the group to it's core. If two leaders come into conflict - even just through skirmishing of their clique - it can lead to an outright schism.

    In addition, Trumpist's default state is a delusional belief that they are being oppressed by a society that doesn't appreciate their greatness. Any time something doesn't go their way, their mind interprets the setback as a deliberate act of oppression by someone out to get them.

    Which brings us to what will happen next. As they circle and desperately look for anything to blame for the loss, the inevitable will happen: the various groups of Trump supporters will begin to make war with one another, blaming everyone but themselves for the loss, and the alliance they so carefully built-up over the last few years will crumble. It will be Republicans verses white supremacists verses incels verses trolls verses alt-right verses Qanon verses fundamentalists verses Alex Jones followers verses Limbaugh listeners verses Hannity viewers verses the dozens of other little sub-cultures united only by their adoration of Trump and malicious impulses to harm others. As the infighting starts their greatest strength, the unified voting block, is lost.

    3. A House Divided

    This starts when Biden is sworn in, and is the beginning of the end for Trumpism. We've already started to see a bit of it, with groups openly advocating violence and civil war and accusing everyone but Trump of anything and everything. They'll echo chamber hard, marinating in their own bitterness and self-righteousness and growing ever more extreme and hateful in their rhetoric. This leads to a constant climate of fear, outrage, and siege mentality, resulting in an endless cycle of internal purges and witch hunts. Eventually even mildly critical voices will be chased out, leading to even more extreme rhetoric and behavior. This will do nothing for their public image, which will continue to deteriorate as the faithful act more and more crazy. Many will be arrested for plotting mass shootings and other terrorist attacks.

    At this point if he hasn't already Trump will flee the country. The smarter Republicans in the government will see the writing on the wall, grab all the money they can, and get out before things get even worse. While this is happening the wars between the Trumpist groups will intensify and soon they'll constantly be at one anothers throats, abandoning whatever they originally purported to care about in favor of attacking other Trumpist groups, believing that if they can rid themselves of infidels and heretics, they'll be vindicated. They'll blame one another, they'll accuse one another of being pedophiles and communists, and in some cases, they'll shoot one another.

    Finally, the worst part comes: Without Trump to hold things together or any ability to provide a unified voting block, their biggest asset has been lost, and at this point Putin and the other billionaires who fund them will abandon them - just like they did with the Tea Party once it was no longer useful. This spells certain death and leads to the last step.

    4. The Collapse

    Trumpism in its final phase dies with a whimper, ultimately being reduced to nothing more than a joke, same as the Christian Coalition and Tea Party before it, and for the exact same reasons. Whether it was the Christian Coalition's members getting caught soliciting gay sex or paying for a mistress' abortion, to the Tea Party becoming synonymous with Birtherism and Orly Taitz, this step marks the end of anyone being able to take them seriously or caring what they have to say.

    By this point the money has dried up, they've been abandoned by the establishment and left to wither away, and the bulk of their leadership has gone off in search of a new host organism or become so crazy that they're indistinguishable from David Icke.

    They will not be missed.

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