View Poll Results: Who would you vote for in the 2020 US Presidential elections?

Voters
78. You may not vote on this poll
  • Donald Trump - Mike Pence (Republicans)

    34 43.59%
  • Joe Biden - Kamala Harris (Democrats)

    37 47.44%
  • Jo Jorgensen - Spike Cohen (Libertarians)

    4 5.13%
  • Howie Hawkins - Angela Walker (Greens)

    0 0%
  • Other (please, specify)

    3 3.85%
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Thread: USA elections 2020 - 2021

  1. #1881
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    Wait, what?

    Trump won't win NY, but ... what?!?!
    Who made the wife of a PotUS, twice senator of the state and presidential candidate against the running ticket an elector?!

    OMG, you are right!
    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/p...or/6065216002/
    I wouldn't rule out Trump winning New York State. Outside the city the state is pretty much red. Taken in context with the fact that nearly everyone in the city is angry at its left-wing mayor and combined with the fact that 10s of thousands died because Cuomo sent Covid patients to nursing homes and there is a good chance that Trump can win it. Heck, I'd put money on it. People in the city are pissed at Dems right now with the lockdowns and restrictions. People can't pay their rent, much less eat. It's not likely people will vote for something they're being destroyed by...oh wait. I forgot we're talking about Democrats.

    If Trump does win New York, it will be glorious knowing Hillary will be choking on her on vomit because she'll have to vote for Trump. Knowing it's a position she sought after makes it even better.

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    Here's what I think is going to happen to Trumpism, in 4 steps:

    1. Losses.
    The death of a cult of personality begins with losses. Anyone who has been paying attention at all will know it's been one loss after another with these groups ever since Trump won:

    First, they lost on The Wall. They tried to frame this loss as anything but what it was, but the truth was obvious to anyone looking: Trump supporters lost a lot. They were scammed out of their money by Bannon and other con artists, outed as xenophobes who irrationally hated and feared people with dark skin. The result was Trump supporters doubling down and claiming a win when they didn't actually have one.

    If the wall was a defeat, BLM was a punch in the gut. We saw hand-wringing and arguments that it was overturning the natural order and was the end of days. Predictions of white male genocide were thrown about with abandon. None of that has proven true and this, again, has Trumpism doubling down and getting even crazier in pursuit of ideological purity, arguing that BLM is a communist plot, when everyone familiar knows the reason is a brutal police culture that sees deadly violence as the first and often only tactic when dealing with Black suspects.

    Covid-19 is the third time they've gotten exposed. They parroted everything Trump said: that it was a hoax, nothing more than a cold, was going to miraculously go away, that whatever he was pushing this week would cure it, ect. They deflected to Obama, blamed everyone but Trump for how bad things have gotten, anything to distract from Trump's abysmal handling of the pandemic. Then Woodward's book revealed Trump had lied through his teeth, knew it was serious, and simply couldn't care less how many Americans died. The result has been, again, more doubling down, this time to the point where they've chased away too many moderates and begun an unstoppable slide into extremism.

    2.Circular Firing Squads
    Once the dust settles from the election, Trumpists will be looking, desperately, for someone to scapegoat for the loss. It will start with blaming the usual suspects - women, minorities, LGBT people, and of course zillions of illegal votes - but that will soon lose effect because the victory will clearly involve white men in addition to other groups and will be such a massive landslide that even they will realize it couldn't have been all illegal votes. So they will have to cast a wider and wider net. It just has to be someone else's fault!

    Why won't they admit that their ideology led to the loss? Because Trumpism sees the world in black and white. You're either with them or you are the enemy, and being with them means complete capitulation to the party line as embodied by the leader. But when the party line leads to loss after loss, it gets harder to justify, especially when that party line begins with delusional thinking such as believing half the country are communists.

    When the dust settles, and the group is forced to confront the realization that their own ideology led to the loss, they will react differently depending on who is involved. Rank and file members will head for greener pastures or suggest changing the party line. The true believers have no choice, as we've seen, but to double down. They feel like giving even an inch of ground is surrendering the moral righteousness of their cause. This will inevitably lead to fracturing as the rank and file point out the obvious, which is that they're losing. The leadership will crack down hard on such talk, but this only causes more of it, and soon nothing can silence the sheer volume of dissent.

    It's critical to note that unlike most stable movements, Trumpism is extremely reliant on force of personality to keep all of the various groups working together. Trump is practically worshiped, as is anyone he supports. This central focus tends to result in very powerful leaders, but also acts as an Achilles' heel. If one of the leaders is discredited it forces them to circle the wagons and waste resources and time defending someone who would have been cut loose anywhere else (Flynn for instance), sacrificing their credibility in the process. If one of the leaders is discredited to the point that even Trump supporters can no longer defend them (such as Bannon), it can shake the group to it's core. If two leaders come into conflict - even just through skirmishing of their clique - it can lead to an outright schism.

    In addition, Trumpist's default state is a delusional belief that they are being oppressed by a society that doesn't appreciate their greatness. Any time something doesn't go their way, their mind interprets the setback as a deliberate act of oppression by someone out to get them.

    Which brings us to what will happen next. As they circle and desperately look for anything to blame for the loss, the inevitable will happen: the various groups of Trump supporters will begin to make war with one another, blaming everyone but themselves for the loss, and the alliance they so carefully built-up over the last few years will crumble. It will be Republicans verses white supremacists verses incels verses trolls verses alt-right verses Qanon verses fundamentalists verses Alex Jones followers verses Limbaugh listeners verses Hannity viewers verses the dozens of other little sub-cultures united only by their adoration of Trump and malicious impulses to harm others. As the infighting starts their greatest strength, the unified voting block, is lost.

    3. A House Divided

    This starts when Biden is sworn in, and is the beginning of the end for Trumpism. We've already started to see a bit of it, with groups openly advocating violence and civil war and accusing everyone but Trump of anything and everything. They'll echo chamber hard, marinating in their own bitterness and self-righteousness and growing ever more extreme and hateful in their rhetoric. This leads to a constant climate of fear, outrage, and siege mentality, resulting in an endless cycle of internal purges and witch hunts. Eventually even mildly critical voices will be chased out, leading to even more extreme rhetoric and behavior. This will do nothing for their public image, which will continue to deteriorate as the faithful act more and more crazy. Many will be arrested for plotting mass shootings and other terrorist attacks.

    At this point if he hasn't already Trump will flee the country. The smarter Republicans in the government will see the writing on the wall, grab all the money they can, and get out before things get even worse. While this is happening the wars between the Trumpist groups will intensify and soon they'll constantly be at one anothers throats, abandoning whatever they originally purported to care about in favor of attacking other Trumpist groups, believing that if they can rid themselves of infidels and heretics, they'll be vindicated. They'll blame one another, they'll accuse one another of being pedophiles and communists, and in some cases, they'll shoot one another.

    Finally, the worst part comes: Without Trump to hold things together or any ability to provide a unified voting block, their biggest asset has been lost, and at this point Putin and the other billionaires who fund them will abandon them - just like they did with the Tea Party once it was no longer useful. This spells certain death and leads to the last step.

    4. The Collapse

    Trumpism in its final phase dies with a whimper, ultimately being reduced to nothing more than a joke, same as the Christian Coalition and Tea Party before it, and for the exact same reasons. Whether it was the Christian Coalition's members getting caught soliciting gay sex or paying for a mistress' abortion, to the Tea Party becoming synonymous with Birtherism and Orly Taitz, this step marks the end of anyone being able to take them seriously or caring what they have to say.

    By this point the money has dried up, they've been abandoned by the establishment and left to wither away, and the bulk of their leadership has gone off in search of a new host organism or become so crazy that they're indistinguishable from David Icke.

    They will not be missed.
    Someone's been spending too much time reading Mother Jones.

  2. #1882
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Just in! The DOJ has confirmed that there is an active corruption investigation involving Joe Biden and his son's business dealings with Chinese energy firms:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OquV...U3RfQg&index=3

  3. #1883

    Default USA elections 2020

    Not a single charge has been filed.

    Hackers stole $2m from Trump reelection fund, claims Wisconsin GOP

    Republican officials in Wisconsin say that hackers stole $2.3m from an account being used to help reelect Donald Trump.

    State party chairman Andrew Hitt said that the suspicious activity was noticed on 22 October and that the FBI is now investigating.

    I'm going to go out on a limb and say it was a Republican who did it. They're all trying to get whatever they can before being out of power for the next few decades.
    Last edited by Abdülmecid I; October 30, 2020 at 08:36 AM. Reason: Merged and insulting.

  4. #1884
    Sir Adrian's Avatar the Imperishable
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Now where did I hear that out of power BS before? Ah, yes, the 2016 elections. You're lying to yourself if you think either party will be out of power.
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  5. #1885
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    I wouldn't rule out Trump winning New York State. Outside the city the state is pretty much red. Taken in context with the fact that nearly everyone in the city is angry at its left-wing mayor and combined with the fact that 10s of thousands died because Cuomo sent Covid patients to nursing homes and there is a good chance that Trump can win it. Heck, I'd put money on it. People in the city are pissed at Dems right now with the lockdowns and restrictions. People can't pay their rent, much less eat. It's not likely people will vote for something they're being destroyed by...oh wait. I forgot we're talking about Democrats.
    Yes, but outside the city there are fewer people than inside the city. Also people angry at Cuomo means he will lose to the next democrat governor since they are also angry at Trump.
    Trump has virtually no chance to win New York State as it is one of the most anti-Trump places in USA. If Trump wins, there would be huge protests in USA.
    You know, people called democrats protesting that other people voted someone they didn't like.

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    If Trump does win New York, it will be glorious knowing Hillary will be choking on her on vomit because she'll have to vote for Trump. Knowing it's a position she sought after makes it even better.
    Nope. If Trump wins New York, the republicans will put up the electors. Hillary would be an elector only if the Democrats win.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
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  6. #1886
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    Nope. If Trump wins New York, the republicans will put up the electors. Hillary would be an elector only if the Democrats win.
    Well, I'm not going to argue that point. The water concerning electors, especially in New York, is just too muddy.

    In past elections there have been, on some occasions, faithless electors. In the event that Trump, or Biden, wins the election in enough states and there are enough faithless electors to give the election to the losing candidate then one possible solution would be civil war if the Supreme Court did not make things right.

    The Court did take some action in that respect last spring, but in my opinion they didn't go far enough. Like I said, there have been faithless electors in the past, but they did not impact the outcome. In the event that they ever do, that will result in a very sour situation.

  7. #1887
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    If you don't worry too much about the hurt feelings of the 3% of the loud ultraprogressives, or the rights of illegal immigrants are treated but want to ensure that attacks like these would be reduced in your country as well as a continued toughening of measures against immigration, then Trump should be the one you vote for.

    On the other hand, his record in dealing with national disasters is very bad, from immediate (California fires), to short-term (COVID) to in-the-making (environment and climate change). So...
    it's not an easy decision, I give you that.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
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  8. #1888

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Settra View Post
    Now where did I hear that out of power BS before? Ah, yes, the 2016 elections. You're lying to yourself if you think either party will be out of power.
    They have every sign of a dying party.

    What does the Republican Party even stand for anymore? You all have tossed aside one long-proclaimed standard after another to let Trump off the hook, repeatedly changed your minds on things that used to be dear to you to agree with whatever he wants for no other reason than because he wants it. If all you stand for is blind adoration of and obedience to Trump, then you don't really stand for anything.

    This utter lack of values is reflected in how Republicans argue. No attempt is made to convince anyone of your point of view, instead you just attack "the enemy". Hence the frantic and outlandish accusations leveled at Democrats and Democratic voters. When's the last time a Republican had a plan or idea, or said anything that wasn't some variant of "Praise Trump! Anything I don't like is a communist conspiracy and anyone who doesn't do what I say is a pedophile!"?

    But don't take my word for it. Trump is already making excuses for the loss.

    It will take an entire identity make-over for the GOP to survive once Trump is gone, and so far signs point to them being unwilling to do that.

  9. #1889
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    As the early voting has increased a lot, that means that the "bring the vote out" advantage of Republicans is lessened. As the difference in the (at least registered) early voters between Trump and Biden decreases from +20 for Biden to +14, the advantage for Trump by the (assumed) 2% of lost votes also lessens. These are actually minor changes but these minor changes push the totals in significant ways as many races are close.

    Here is my new predictions, after accounting for a 75% votes being early vote and decreased the (assumed) advantage of Republicans to bring their supporters to the voting booth.




    As you can see, there's still a significant chance (about 1/8) that the result would be a virtual tie (269-272 electors for the winner) which means the Rogue Electors may be deciding the vote.
    However, Trump's chances are reduced as more people vote. My simulations still give him a significant chance to win, but he's the underdog again.

    Biden: 245 - 307 (90% confidence)
    Trump: 231 - 290 (90% confidence)
    Most probable outcome: Trump 262 electors, Biden 276 electors.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
    "Angry Uncle Gordon" describes me well.
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  10. #1890

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    It will take an entire identity make-over for the GOP to survive once Trump is gone, and so far signs point to them being unwilling to do that.
    Not just this. But they haven't progressively adapted to generational change as time moves on. Sure, since the 70s the Boomers and mostly Generation X has been the voting block of interest, but that's changing. The Boomers are dying. The Millenials now are half the work force. Generation Z is starting to vote in both off-year elections and Presidential Elections. Are Republicans adapting to the needs of younger voters? No. This was one of the underlined problems in the 2012 document of why they lost the 2012 Election. But in 2016 they focused like a laser on the older voters. And it even turns out in this election they've driven the older voters away so that instead of winning them by twenty or thirty, it's an even split on who's going to win that demographic.

    This is not how you adapt to the future. It's how you whither at the vine.
    One thing is for certain: the more profoundly baffled you have been in your life, the more open your mind becomes to new ideas.
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    Let's think the unthinkable, let's do the undoable. Let us prepare to grapple with the ineffable itself, and see if we may not eff it after all.

  11. #1891
    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    I found this analysis from NTV quite fitting, i have translated it:

    Sex, power, banana republic - Trump has canceled the Republicans


    A party has to show unity if it wants to govern. Doesn't it matter who leads them? The consequences of this thinking can be seen among the Republicans under Trump. He recognized the possibilities - and abused them.

    Before the post-election frenzy hits the United States and the world, then either panic reporting continues for four years or eased eulogies are sung in response to Trump's conqueror, there is still time to answer a question: What has happened in the political United States in the past four years ? What about the Republicans? Why did they follow Trump? This man who has been denied presidential skills. Whose diplomacy is hardly one. Which often does not formulate a straight sentence.

    It is not an accident that someone like Trump is in the White House. It is also no coincidence that there has been so little resistance from within the own party. Trump was and is a product of conditions, not their cause. Even if the president loses the election, that will not have changed.

    Republicans have been in a permanent right-wing upheaval for decades. Trump is doing nothing new when he defames the Democrats as traitors, frauds, sick or corrupt radical left. At least since the 1980s under President Ronald Reagan, it has been customary for Republicans to deliberately break norms and thereby attract attention. At that time, Newt Gingrich, as a member of the House of Representatives, was training his party colleagues to use such terms in political discussions.

    What is more radical about Trump is that he carried these things into the White House. And its toughness: if you don't sprint, you'll be fired. By condoning or supporting this approach, the Republicans have torn the fig leaf of the content away from themselves and allowed Trump to cancel them, to shut them down completely. Ultimately, they are mouth dead. Political ideas, even values, are not the primary goal of Republicans. But the vehicle to power: Trump.

    Little content, no compromises

    Abortions, deportations, the death penalty, possession of weapons: the party is sticking to goals that belong in the field of white identity politics or that can be reconciled with belief-driven convictions. The party did not open up, but instead drew walls to voter groups like Latinos or blacks. You can find that good because so many fringes of US society are still involved. That is not in the interests of the country. It hinders development instead of promoting it. With me or against us, a political question cannot be broken down more easily. Trump has made it more open than ever.

    Even when Gingrich became the Republican spokesman in the House of Representatives decades ago, he was clamoring against the Democrats: "There will be no compromise." After all, the United States was to be freed from the enemy on his party's crusade. Today, Gingrich is considered one of the political pioneers for Trump. With "fake it until you make it" he got into the highest office in the USA, one of the most powerful positions in the world. Sex stories that would have broken the neck of others could not harm him. Many Americans do not care about the self-enrichment of the whole family. Even the once red rag Russia was not only unimportant in the end, but is no longer a red rag: polls show that Republican voters have an increasingly positive image of the former archenemy Russia.

    The Republicans hide their substantive emptiness in the depths of eternal polarization. An open discussion about topics does not take place (anymore). That the US is running into more debt than ever before? Not so bad. That they were once the free trade party? Well, not anymore. That you support a president who acts with corrupt practices, permanent lies and thereby neo-aristocratic-infantile? Apparently legitimate. And if it is also racists and conspiracy theorists who secure the privileges for the millionaires' club called the Senate, then so be it. This is the only way to lower taxes for yourself, to appoint suitable judges to the Supreme Court and to reintroduce the ban on abortion. The end of staying in power justifies the means.

    Radicalization for decades

    With their ideologization, the Republicans paste up every internal contradiction and criticism of Trump. The marketplace of ideas is deserted. For decades they have been pursuing a policy that has made the distribution of property increasingly unequal; just think of the steep trickle-down theory that more wealth in the rich automatically seeps through to the lower income groups. Trump helped her and other Republican classics experience a renaissance, despite all evidence of their ineffectiveness for social welfare. The Republicans are turning voter anger at the resulting social decline into support for themselves.

    Trump tossed them a few breadcrumbs on the major tax reform as a thank you and pushed the party's historical responsibility aside by serving racist resentment. All of this can be found awesome. But it's incredibly cynical.

    After the radicalization with Gingrich, the ultra-conservative Tea Party emerged as a reaction to Barack Obama's presidency and the financial crisis. The Republicans didn't really manage to contain this wing - radicalization continued. Trump's victory and the years since then mark yet another upheaval. Forces were given a face that had previously remained hidden: paranoiacs, conspiracy theorists, racists and others who were sometimes openly violent.

    The number of hate groups in the US has increased by hundreds over the past few years. The fact that a president and an entire party are in common with some of them has an explosive quality. No wonder that in the election year to date, the number of first-time gun owners has increased by at least 40 percent, in no section of the population more than among African Americans who feel threatened. White and black militias sometimes march through the streets at the same time.

    Blacklists of opponents

    There are Republicans who have spoken out against US President Trump over the years. But hardly anyone still holds a relevant political office. The past four years have turned the party into the compliant entity of a corrupt entrepreneur. Politicians who once laughed at him or insulted him are now among his fellow campaigners. They are afraid that one of Trump's fingers will press the red cancel button if they don't keep putting honey around his mouth.

    When Trump hadn't won, there were armies of Republicans who spoke contemptuously about him. Trump's aides collected these statements and blacklisted their names. Hardly anyone got a job after that. Others adapted. A prominent example is the formerly rebellious Senator Lindsey Graham, who has not spoken a critical word since a meal with Trump; apparently because he sees better chances for his third re-election. He has served in the Senate for South Carolina since 2002. Graham is now hanging out with the president on his golf courses, where tax money is pouring into Trump's pockets through the accommodation of the Secret Service bodyguards.

    Jeff Flake, on the other hand, a former Republican Senator from Arizona, did not hide his views even after the election. He called his party's development a "race to the bottom to see who can be meaner and crazier," and announced that he would not run for another term in 2018. It is no longer enough to be conservative: "You have to be malicious." Malicious in the sense of Trump's egomaniacal thirst for recognition. Flake no longer wanted to support that. The Senator also published a statement entitled "Conscience of a Conservative". A provocation: This is also the name of a book by Barry Goldwater, a role model for the Republican right from Arizona and a defeated presidential candidate from 1964.

    The former senator himself is indicative of the consequences of the departure from principles. US journalists wanted to know whether Flake's exit from politics was final; he didn't want to rule that out. When it comes to the question alone, the striving for power lurks behind the curtain as the overriding motive: What if he only attacked Trump to position himself for the time after that? The example shows how the loss of confidence falls back on all Republicans. That could be a huge problem for the party.

    There are now a few more critical voices from the party. But these are mainly due to Trump's mixed prospects for re-election and the threat of a loss of power. Republican Senator Ben Sasse actually put Trump down in a phone call with voters: The president throws money out the window, kissing dictators' buttocks, being completely self-absorbed and much more. One look at the polls shows that the Nebraska Senator can afford it. His re-election is considered safe.

    Quirky family show

    A government run according to Trump's gusto, in which relatives sit in central positions, an antiquated political system and meanwhile also economic instability: The USA now gives the impression of a banana republic. Democratic principles and rules are only a part of many tools there. Sometimes they are useful. Sometimes not. There are plenty of examples, as in nearby Latin America, of the conditions this promises: corrupt institutions, beneficiary political and economic elites, a weak middle class and an angry, impoverished, but more or less powerless majority.

    The belief that the United States Constitution was designed to prevent this from happening is more legend than reality. With someone like Trump, she is simply overwhelmed. He recognized the possibilities and used them. Trump has proclaimed several times that he can do anything he wants, after all, he is the president. When courts argue with laws or human rights, he berates them. He shamelessly exploits injustices and instabilities in the electoral system - even if this is nothing new to the Republicans. The bright spot in the constitution is the limitation of the president to two terms. But even that Trump has already questioned. The dangerous thing is that with him you never really know how seriously he means something and at some point you don't listen so carefully.

    Since his election there have been plenty of omissions about how incapable he is as president, that he will behave like a toddler and thereby simply dismantle himself. With a view to his whereabouts in the White House, that could actually happen through a troublemaker named Corona. Criticism within the party was meek. There is no party program for 2020 and beyond. Just an oath of loyalty.

    The nomination for Trump's second term was a bizarre family show in the midst of the pandemic, in which he himself - unusual in the choreography of these nomination party conventions - made his daily appearance and was cheered by sons, daughters and wife. And everyone told their horror tales of the threat of conformity, socialism and the approaching demise of the USA.

    Just given up

    If the Republicans still had a backbone of values ​​and content, they would at least have confronted this president with constructive criticism from time to time, even if it was at the cost of breaking. That would not have harmed their stated goals. Vice President Mike Pence, who would have been promoted to the White House, has so far not distinguished himself as a progressive, on the contrary: He acts like a machine that constantly repeats conservative core ideologies.

    The extent to which this party submitted and surrendered was also shown when the Republican senators in the impeachment proceedings against Trump did not even want to hear witnesses and were apparently so ashamed that they fled the building from journalists. "Congress has failed as an institution," analyzed a Republican senator. It was a rare admission. High-ranking Republicans have defined their pursuit of power as the highest goal, promoted Trump and thus allowed themselves to be dismantled.

    Lying and demagogic, corrupt and hostile to the institutions, a party whose sole purpose seems to be to praise the president; this is how one could balance the past four years. Or like this: a leader defines reality so that everyone acts on it. Trump has abused this principle for himself. And the Republicans willingly followed him.

    https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-ha...e22131908.html
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  12. #1892
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Look thats laying it on pretty thick: it reads more like a "hmm [incumbent] may lose, lets try and smear the smell of loser onto the rest of his party". The criticism of Pence (a conservative Pentecostal) of "not actually being a progressive" is weird, i mean his very unprogressive faction was instrumental in getting a Republican elected, why would anyone expect him to be a progressive?

    It reminds me of some of the back and forth about Bill Clinton ca. 1999. Wasn't there a similar critique after the fiasco-laden final year of Bush II?

    The US system is extremely robust and can survive abuse by the involved partiers because it works for the people who matter. As a US ally with family there I'd like to see ordinary US citizens do better. The Democrats as much as the Republicans made Trump (and have resisted serious reform), both can bear some blame here.

    In a Byzantine two party system slow decay is the same as waiting your turn. I mean what meaningful change have the Democrats made since 2016? They are literally recycling Obama's campaign from 2008. "The other guy stinks, don't fall down the stairs, great posters, hey we saved democracy". OK Obama was a coherent public speaker which helped offset prejudice against him being part-African.

    The importance of the Presidency as we have seen is over-rated by many people: a reality TV clown has been "running" the show for four years and the place is only burning down slowly. The republicans got their seat on the SC, gridlock has prevented much movement on important issues. Politicians have played the race card for their own benefit, and inequality has led to serious unrest. Its not that different to the last five presidencies.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  13. #1893
    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Well the Democrats have at least ideas (green deal yes or no for example). Where are the visions of the Republicans except turning the wheel back( abolition of abortion or of Obamacare or of Environment laws)? The only interests they care for since the rule of the 'vice president' Cheney is tax cuts for big business und cheap oil.And no Constitution is unbreakable. It will be interesting if the republican SC will veto every law of a possible President Biden. Or nullify his election.
    Last edited by Morticia Iunia Bruti; November 01, 2020 at 03:51 PM.
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
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    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  14. #1894
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    As the early voting has increased a lot, that means that the "bring the vote out" advantage of Republicans is lessened. As the difference in the (at least registered) early voters between Trump and Biden decreases from +20 for Biden to +14, the advantage for Trump by the (assumed) 2% of lost votes also lessens. These are actually minor changes but these minor changes push the totals in significant ways as many races are close.

    Here is my new predictions, after accounting for a 75% votes being early vote and decreased the (assumed) advantage of Republicans to bring their supporters to the voting booth.




    As you can see, there's still a significant chance (about 1/8) that the result would be a virtual tie (269-272 electors for the winner) which means the Rogue Electors may be deciding the vote.
    However, Trump's chances are reduced as more people vote. My simulations still give him a significant chance to win, but he's the underdog again.

    Biden: 245 - 307 (90% confidence)
    Trump: 231 - 290 (90% confidence)
    Most probable outcome: Trump 262 electors, Biden 276 electors.
    And then there is this:

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...-donald-trump/

    Trump wins in a landslide. If Trump has 30% of black vote, as the article says, there is no way to victory for Biden.

    By the way, I forgot to mention this. State Electors are elected after the Nov. 3rd election, which makes the fact that Hillary hhas already been elected somewhat strange.

    Quote Originally Posted by Morticia Iunia Bruti View Post
    I found this analysis from NTV quite fitting, i have translated it:

    Sex, power, banana republic - Trump has canceled the Republicans


    A party has to show unity if it wants to govern. Doesn't it matter who leads them? The consequences of this thinking can be seen among the Republicans under Trump. He recognized the possibilities - and abused them.

    Before the post-election frenzy hits the United States and the world, then either panic reporting continues for four years or eased eulogies are sung in response to Trump's conqueror, there is still time to answer a question: What has happened in the political United States in the past four years ? What about the Republicans? Why did they follow Trump? This man who has been denied presidential skills. Whose diplomacy is hardly one. Which often does not formulate a straight sentence.

    It is not an accident that someone like Trump is in the White House. It is also no coincidence that there has been so little resistance from within the own party. Trump was and is a product of conditions, not their cause. Even if the president loses the election, that will not have changed.

    Republicans have been in a permanent right-wing upheaval for decades. Trump is doing nothing new when he defames the Democrats as traitors, frauds, sick or corrupt radical left. At least since the 1980s under President Ronald Reagan, it has been customary for Republicans to deliberately break norms and thereby attract attention. At that time, Newt Gingrich, as a member of the House of Representatives, was training his party colleagues to use such terms in political discussions.

    What is more radical about Trump is that he carried these things into the White House. And its toughness: if you don't sprint, you'll be fired. By condoning or supporting this approach, the Republicans have torn the fig leaf of the content away from themselves and allowed Trump to cancel them, to shut them down completely. Ultimately, they are mouth dead. Political ideas, even values, are not the primary goal of Republicans. But the vehicle to power: Trump.

    Little content, no compromises

    Abortions, deportations, the death penalty, possession of weapons: the party is sticking to goals that belong in the field of white identity politics or that can be reconciled with belief-driven convictions. The party did not open up, but instead drew walls to voter groups like Latinos or blacks. You can find that good because so many fringes of US society are still involved. That is not in the interests of the country. It hinders development instead of promoting it. With me or against us, a political question cannot be broken down more easily. Trump has made it more open than ever.

    Even when Gingrich became the Republican spokesman in the House of Representatives decades ago, he was clamoring against the Democrats: "There will be no compromise." After all, the United States was to be freed from the enemy on his party's crusade. Today, Gingrich is considered one of the political pioneers for Trump. With "fake it until you make it" he got into the highest office in the USA, one of the most powerful positions in the world. Sex stories that would have broken the neck of others could not harm him. Many Americans do not care about the self-enrichment of the whole family. Even the once red rag Russia was not only unimportant in the end, but is no longer a red rag: polls show that Republican voters have an increasingly positive image of the former archenemy Russia.

    The Republicans hide their substantive emptiness in the depths of eternal polarization. An open discussion about topics does not take place (anymore). That the US is running into more debt than ever before? Not so bad. That they were once the free trade party? Well, not anymore. That you support a president who acts with corrupt practices, permanent lies and thereby neo-aristocratic-infantile? Apparently legitimate. And if it is also racists and conspiracy theorists who secure the privileges for the millionaires' club called the Senate, then so be it. This is the only way to lower taxes for yourself, to appoint suitable judges to the Supreme Court and to reintroduce the ban on abortion. The end of staying in power justifies the means.

    Radicalization for decades

    With their ideologization, the Republicans paste up every internal contradiction and criticism of Trump. The marketplace of ideas is deserted. For decades they have been pursuing a policy that has made the distribution of property increasingly unequal; just think of the steep trickle-down theory that more wealth in the rich automatically seeps through to the lower income groups. Trump helped her and other Republican classics experience a renaissance, despite all evidence of their ineffectiveness for social welfare. The Republicans are turning voter anger at the resulting social decline into support for themselves.

    Trump tossed them a few breadcrumbs on the major tax reform as a thank you and pushed the party's historical responsibility aside by serving racist resentment. All of this can be found awesome. But it's incredibly cynical.

    After the radicalization with Gingrich, the ultra-conservative Tea Party emerged as a reaction to Barack Obama's presidency and the financial crisis. The Republicans didn't really manage to contain this wing - radicalization continued. Trump's victory and the years since then mark yet another upheaval. Forces were given a face that had previously remained hidden: paranoiacs, conspiracy theorists, racists and others who were sometimes openly violent.

    The number of hate groups in the US has increased by hundreds over the past few years. The fact that a president and an entire party are in common with some of them has an explosive quality. No wonder that in the election year to date, the number of first-time gun owners has increased by at least 40 percent, in no section of the population more than among African Americans who feel threatened. White and black militias sometimes march through the streets at the same time.

    Blacklists of opponents

    There are Republicans who have spoken out against US President Trump over the years. But hardly anyone still holds a relevant political office. The past four years have turned the party into the compliant entity of a corrupt entrepreneur. Politicians who once laughed at him or insulted him are now among his fellow campaigners. They are afraid that one of Trump's fingers will press the red cancel button if they don't keep putting honey around his mouth.

    When Trump hadn't won, there were armies of Republicans who spoke contemptuously about him. Trump's aides collected these statements and blacklisted their names. Hardly anyone got a job after that. Others adapted. A prominent example is the formerly rebellious Senator Lindsey Graham, who has not spoken a critical word since a meal with Trump; apparently because he sees better chances for his third re-election. He has served in the Senate for South Carolina since 2002. Graham is now hanging out with the president on his golf courses, where tax money is pouring into Trump's pockets through the accommodation of the Secret Service bodyguards.

    Jeff Flake, on the other hand, a former Republican Senator from Arizona, did not hide his views even after the election. He called his party's development a "race to the bottom to see who can be meaner and crazier," and announced that he would not run for another term in 2018. It is no longer enough to be conservative: "You have to be malicious." Malicious in the sense of Trump's egomaniacal thirst for recognition. Flake no longer wanted to support that. The Senator also published a statement entitled "Conscience of a Conservative". A provocation: This is also the name of a book by Barry Goldwater, a role model for the Republican right from Arizona and a defeated presidential candidate from 1964.

    The former senator himself is indicative of the consequences of the departure from principles. US journalists wanted to know whether Flake's exit from politics was final; he didn't want to rule that out. When it comes to the question alone, the striving for power lurks behind the curtain as the overriding motive: What if he only attacked Trump to position himself for the time after that? The example shows how the loss of confidence falls back on all Republicans. That could be a huge problem for the party.

    There are now a few more critical voices from the party. But these are mainly due to Trump's mixed prospects for re-election and the threat of a loss of power. Republican Senator Ben Sasse actually put Trump down in a phone call with voters: The president throws money out the window, kissing dictators' buttocks, being completely self-absorbed and much more. One look at the polls shows that the Nebraska Senator can afford it. His re-election is considered safe.

    Quirky family show

    A government run according to Trump's gusto, in which relatives sit in central positions, an antiquated political system and meanwhile also economic instability: The USA now gives the impression of a banana republic. Democratic principles and rules are only a part of many tools there. Sometimes they are useful. Sometimes not. There are plenty of examples, as in nearby Latin America, of the conditions this promises: corrupt institutions, beneficiary political and economic elites, a weak middle class and an angry, impoverished, but more or less powerless majority.

    The belief that the United States Constitution was designed to prevent this from happening is more legend than reality. With someone like Trump, she is simply overwhelmed. He recognized the possibilities and used them. Trump has proclaimed several times that he can do anything he wants, after all, he is the president. When courts argue with laws or human rights, he berates them. He shamelessly exploits injustices and instabilities in the electoral system - even if this is nothing new to the Republicans. The bright spot in the constitution is the limitation of the president to two terms. But even that Trump has already questioned. The dangerous thing is that with him you never really know how seriously he means something and at some point you don't listen so carefully.

    Since his election there have been plenty of omissions about how incapable he is as president, that he will behave like a toddler and thereby simply dismantle himself. With a view to his whereabouts in the White House, that could actually happen through a troublemaker named Corona. Criticism within the party was meek. There is no party program for 2020 and beyond. Just an oath of loyalty.

    The nomination for Trump's second term was a bizarre family show in the midst of the pandemic, in which he himself - unusual in the choreography of these nomination party conventions - made his daily appearance and was cheered by sons, daughters and wife. And everyone told their horror tales of the threat of conformity, socialism and the approaching demise of the USA.

    Just given up

    If the Republicans still had a backbone of values ​​and content, they would at least have confronted this president with constructive criticism from time to time, even if it was at the cost of breaking. That would not have harmed their stated goals. Vice President Mike Pence, who would have been promoted to the White House, has so far not distinguished himself as a progressive, on the contrary: He acts like a machine that constantly repeats conservative core ideologies.

    The extent to which this party submitted and surrendered was also shown when the Republican senators in the impeachment proceedings against Trump did not even want to hear witnesses and were apparently so ashamed that they fled the building from journalists. "Congress has failed as an institution," analyzed a Republican senator. It was a rare admission. High-ranking Republicans have defined their pursuit of power as the highest goal, promoted Trump and thus allowed themselves to be dismantled.

    Lying and demagogic, corrupt and hostile to the institutions, a party whose sole purpose seems to be to praise the president; this is how one could balance the past four years. Or like this: a leader defines reality so that everyone acts on it. Trump has abused this principle for himself. And the Republicans willingly followed him.

    https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Trump-ha...e22131908.html
    The German that wrote that obviously knows very little about US citizens. He/she is just regurgitating left-wing globalist talking points. Trump achievements are numerous. He cut over 900 Obama government regulations, built 400 miles of border wall and nearly stopped illegal drug smuggling, has engineered peace deals in the Middle East that were previously considered impossible, got the US out of the Paris climate rip-off, forced the EU nations in NATO to pump in 400 billion of the cost, eliminated the individual mandate in Obama Care, etc. etc.

    In other words, the article is nothing but pap and drivel.

  15. #1895

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Ultimately the Republican party stands for one thing, lust for power over others. Every action they take is designed to keep "inferiors" in "their place". And now that they can no longer win legitimately, they have resorted to outright cheating and begging hostile foreign powers for help.

    It is not outside the realm of possibility that Trump's hand-picked stooges on the Supreme Court will nullify a clear Biden victory and declare Trump king for life. Or he will publicly beg Putin to invade the country to keep him in power. Or launch a nuke out of sheer evil spite.

    achievements are numerous. He cut over 900 Obama government regulations, built 400 miles of border wall and nearly stopped illegal drug smuggling, has engineered peace deals in the Middle East that were previously considered impossible,
    Not a word of that is true.
    Last edited by Coughdrop addict; November 01, 2020 at 04:10 PM.

  16. #1896

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by B. W. View Post
    And then there is this:

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...-donald-trump/

    Trump wins in a landslide. If Trump has 30% of black vote, as the article says, there is no way to victory for Biden.
    Even if Trump gets more blacks on his side this time, don't underestimate the stupidity and masochism of white voters.


    By the way, I forgot to mention this. State Electors are elected after the Nov. 3rd election, which makes the fact that Hillary hhas already been elected somewhat strange.
    I'm sure that's pure coincidence.


    The German that wrote that obviously knows very little about US citizens. He/she is just regurgitating left-wing globalist talking points. Trump achievements are numerous. He cut over 900 Obama government regulations, built 400 miles of border wall and nearly stopped illegal drug smuggling, has engineered peace deals in the Middle East that were previously considered impossible, got the US out of the Paris climate rip-off, forced the EU nations in NATO to pump in 400 billion of the cost, eliminated the individual mandate in Obama Care, etc. etc.

    In other words, the article is nothing but pap and drivel.
    Don't be surprised. Virtually any article written in a mainstream German news outlet about the US in general and Trump in particular is dogshit and either a complete fabrication or a massive distortion. I think I've only seen one article that was somewhat factually correct, and that was an interview. That one guy that was actually caught making stuff up was not an isolated incident.


    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    Ultimately the Republican party stands for one thing, lust for power over others. Every action they take is designed to keep "inferiors" in "their place". And now that they can no longer win legitimately, they have resorted to outright cheating and begging hostile foreign powers for help.
    That sounds like massive projection.


    It is not outside the realm of possibility that Trump's hand-picked stooges on the Supreme Court will nullify a clear Biden victory and declare Trump king for life. Or he will publicly beg Putin to invade the country to keep him in power. Or launch a nuke out of sheer evil spite.
    Yeah, that doesn't sound deranged at all. But hey, even if you were right, Trump is old. He's gonna be unfit for office in a few years (incidentally, kind of like Biden is right now). So even if he got a third term, how long do you think he could last?

  17. #1897

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Trump plans to declare victory if he takes election night lead: Axios

    Trump and his collaborators have a plan to forcefully hold power. That much is obvious.

    This is to be expected, since Trump has been priming his followers for that for months. Trump's a sociopath and extreme narcissist, and is physically incapable of taking responsibility for anything or admitting defeat. Also, he has to face the prospect that he may be indicted once he is not president anymore. There are ongoing investigations about him and Trump Organization at the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York.

    Thus, Trump has strong incentives to stay in power, using all means available to him. He will declare victory, and in the case that the continuing vote count turns against him, he will try to invalidate the election. He even may attempt a coup to stay in power.

    Please Trump supporters, when Trump tells you to start shooting to keep him in power, ignore him. Despite what you have been told, he isn't worth throwing your lives away.
    Last edited by Coughdrop addict; November 01, 2020 at 04:48 PM.

  18. #1898
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    Ultimately the Republican party stands for one thing, lust for power over others. Every action they take is designed to keep "inferiors" in "their place". And now that they can no longer win legitimately, they have resorted to outright cheating and begging hostile foreign powers for help.

    It is not outside the realm of possibility that Trump's hand-picked stooges on the Supreme Court will nullify a clear Biden victory and declare Trump king for life. Or he will publicly beg Putin to invade the country to keep him in power. Or launch a nuke out of sheer evil spite.
    Trump is the first president in decades that hasn't increased Americans fighting overseas. Now you're claiming he will start a nuclear war. This is completely delusional.


    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    Not a word of that is true.
    Just one example of reality you are ignoring. Even leftwing media admits this is true:

    https://www.khou.com/article/news/ve...b-11d1e418a824

  19. #1899
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    Ultimately the Republican party stands for one thing, lust for power over others. Every action they take is designed to keep "inferiors" in "their place". And now that they can no longer win legitimately, they have resorted to outright cheating and begging hostile foreign powers for help.
    I don't think that is fair. The GOP does stand for a number of legitimate beliefs, many of which Trump has actually progressed... lower taxes... smaller government... etc etc.

    For me the thing is, that if the GOP loses the Senate and the presidency... That will be all 3 in one term. I don't think they will have to soul search their policy - as mentioned earlier in the thread, with a few exceptions Trump has advanced classic conservative policy. I think the GOP will have to do some soul searching over how they have progressed their agenda. Voters haven't been turned away by the tax cuts or border wall. They've been turned off by zero-sum orange man misogynist racist talk - the border and foreign walls affect other people. Covid affects everyone, and Trump has played that hand with his traditional orange man bluster, and it has really turned away middle voters. If the GOP wants to revive, they're going to have to somehow unhinge themselves from the orange man wagon and start being less zero-sum again. They'll have their chance early, because Biden seems to be looking to have several in his team.

    That is, if the polls are correct. And we'll see later in the week.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MARENOSTRUM

  20. #1900

    Default Re: USA elections 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    I don't think that is fair. The GOP does stand for a number of legitimate beliefs, many of which Trump has actually progressed... lower taxes... smaller government... etc etc.

    For me the thing is, that if the GOP loses the Senate and the presidency... That will be all 3 in one term. I don't think they will have to soul search their policy - as mentioned earlier in the thread, with a few exceptions Trump has advanced classic conservative policy. I think the GOP will have to do some soul searching over how they have progressed their agenda. Voters haven't been turned away by the tax cuts or border wall. They've been turned off by zero-sum orange man misogynist racist talk - the border and foreign walls affect other people.
    I disagree. The billionaire tax cuts confirmed for many what liberals have always said, that the end goal of Republicanism is that all wealth be concentrated in the hands of a tiny oligarchy who pay no taxes, while everyone else is reduced to wretched poverty and de-facto serfdom. In other words, Republicans want to replicate Russia in America.

    The wall turned many away from Trump because they could see it for what it was, pandering to racists who want a whites only ethnostate. We clearly saw the parallels between the wall and a plan some of the Nazi's had to pin up the Slavs behind the Urals to slaughter at their leisure and keep successive generations "sharp", and justify an eternal police state.

    So no, Trump's actions are not an outlier. If anything, Trump embodies everything the Republican Party believes in. He just sees no need to hide it.

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