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Thread: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

  1. #21
    EmperorBatman999's Avatar I say, what, what?
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    I’m still opposed to total lockdowns. The voluntary lockdowns here seem good be working well for the most part, I hardly see anyone out and about in my city despite freedom of movement.

    The disease will pass eventually, but we have to preserve our political principles because they are persistent basis of our society.

  2. #22
    Bantu Chieftain's Avatar Semisalis
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    They dont work here. We got a lot of trash that emigrated and some came back now with the virus on themselves. These should be thrown in total lockdown from day 1.
    And i say trash because they only have the primary school, cant write or speak properly, and so on...

  3. #23
    Stario's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    so if it is the Black Death (like) then things will collapse.
    Only the black death had a mortality rate of 30-60%; while covid-19 is on the scale of 1%. Septicemic plague in untreated individuals had a 100% mortality rate. So this is clearly not "Black Death like".

  4. #24
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    The disease will eventually work its course. There will be a long fight with waves of activity during the traditional seasons (Fall, Winter). Unfortunately this is a particularly infectious and deadly strain. This is not going to be pleasant.

    I was looking at some current projections for fatalities here in Texas, and the publication I was looking at (ref here if I can find it), suggest that there will be ~400k+ deaths in Texas if we do not shelter in place, immediately. I find this type of information to be disturbing. I believe that this was the information that the Dallas mayor was looking at when he issued his shelter in place order yesterday.

    There is alot we still need to learn about this virus. It appears to be a particularly virulent strain with equally lethal effects. The John Hopkins website I am following currently puts the global death rate at around 5%. That is a shockingly high number. Its R0 number was recently upgraded from an R2-3 to R5-6. That is even more disturbing, particularly since many of the scenarios I just mentioned were using the R2 number.

    And based on the location of its origin I am not convinced this virus is the product of natural selection either.



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  5. #25
    Mithradates's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Van Zandt View Post
    And based on the location of its origin I am not convinced this virus is the product of natural selection either.
    COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin

    The scientists found that the RBD portion of the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins had evolved to effectively target a molecular feature on the outside of human cells called ACE2, a receptor involved in regulating blood pressure. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was so effective at binding the human cells, in fact, that the scientists concluded it was the result of natural selection and not the product of genetic engineering.

  6. #26

    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by makanyane View Post
    This piece Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance I think makes a very strong case for maximum suppression (bloody battle) at the moment.
    This is the best article I've read on the topic.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    while covid-19 is on the scale of 1%.
    In Italy, more than 9% of those confirmed infected with COVID-19 have already died. So the case fatality rate there is considerably greater than 9% unless there is a significant number of undetected cases, but even that would need to be weighed against the evidence that as much as two thirds of COVID-19 deaths aren't being classified as such due to lack of confirmation:

    Provincial mayors are sounding an alarm that the virus-related toll fails to reflect a spike in deaths in the general population among those who have not been tested. Last week alone, 400 people died in Bergamo and 12 neighboring towns — four times the number who died the same week the previous year, according to the Bergamo mayor’s office. Only 91 of those had tested positive for the virus...

    “We believe the true numbers (of COVID-19-related deaths) are hidden,” said Francesco Alleva, spokesman for Bergamo’s mayor. “Because many people are dying at home or in structures for the elderly, and they have never been tested for the virus.”
    Being as low as 1% depends on healthcare systems not getting overwhelmed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Van Zandt View Post
    Its R0 number was recently upgraded from an R2-3 to R5-6.
    That increases the cost to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity generally occurs when the percentage of the population who have never been infected multiplied by the R0 is greater than 1, so for R2 herd immunity is achieved when >50% are infected, whereas for R6 herd immunity requires >83% to be infected. That is if herd immunity to coronaviruses can even be achieved long-term:

    "With many infectious diseases, a person can develop immunity against a specific strain after exposure or infection," Amira Roess, a professor of Global Health and Epidemiology at George Mason University, told Business Insider. "Often, that person will not get sick again upon subsequent exposure to it."

    But in the case of the new coronavirus, according to Zhan, doctors don't think the antibodies patients develop are strong or long-lasting enough to keep them from contracting the disease again.

    "Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs," Philip Tierno, a professor at the NYU School of Medicine, told Reuters.
    There is evidence from in vitro studies and animal models that indicate that not only can you get reinfected with SARS after awhile, but that it's more deadly the second time, because of antibody dependent enhancement. That's not enough evidence to assume anything about COVID-19, but in my opinion, not being sure is cause for caution.
    Last edited by sumskilz; March 23, 2020 at 01:33 PM.
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    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  7. #27
    Stario's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by sumzkills
    In Italy, more than 9% of those confirmed infected with COVID-19 have already died. So the case fatality rate there is considerably greater than 9% unless there is a significant number of undetected cases
    I believe the latter is true. For example as late into the outbreak (codiv-19 had been around since November), as of March 8 -Italy has carried out only 826 test per million people as opposed to South Korea with 3692 tests per million people. So until this late stage in the outbreak Italy has missed most of its population- that are now probably fully recovered & we will never know!?
    Some simple mathematics will show: 826/ 1,000,000= 0.08 =8% SO Italy has missed 92% of its population.

    Now if we look at the CFR of leading countries in testing for covid-19 -such as S. Korea we get a different picture- S. Korea's CFR for example is roughly 1.2%. IMO countries such as S. Korea are better examples of getting closer to the real CFR figure (but no doubt they will also still be missing ALOT of cases). So I think its somewhat safe to say the real CFR will probably be closer to 0.5-1%.
    Last edited by Stario; March 23, 2020 at 06:47 PM.

  8. #28
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    It's not like there is any country capable of hospitalizing even 1% of its entire population at the same time for coronavirus (remember also that there are many other people sick with other illnesses in the hospitals). Of course it sucks for those who won't die from the virus, and it isn't always the case that the governments have your own best interest in mind either (actually, it almost never is the case), yet with no containment it seems likely you'd see tens of thousands dead each day, which is rather scary itself.
    Going by what italian doctors say, there are many in critical condition who are in their 20s and 30s, and one has to suppose that only a minority there had a compromised immune system from the start.
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  9. #29
    EmperorBatman999's Avatar I say, what, what?
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    I believe the latter is true. For example as late into the outbreak (codiv-19 had been around since November), as of March 8 -Italy has carried out only 826 test per million people as opposed to South Korea with 3692 tests per million people. So until this late stage in the outbreak Italy has missed most of its population- that are now probably fully recovered & we will never know!?
    Some simple mathematics will show: 826/ 1,000,000= 0.08 =8% SO Italy has missed 92% of its population.

    Now if we look at the CFR of leading countries in testing for covid-19 -such as S. Korea we get a different picture- S. Korea's CFR for example is roughly 1.2%. IMO countries such as S. Korea are better examples of getting closer to the real CFR figure (but no doubt they will also still be missing ALOT of cases). So I think its somewhat safe to say the real CFR will probably be closer to 0.5-1%.
    One thing too is that a lot of people with minor symptoms won't go get a test. I know that I, along with a number of other family members and friends, have made a pact not to go to the doctor for a test unless we have a case so bad we need hospitalization. We refuse to be part of the statistic.

  10. #30
    antaeus's Avatar Whataboutery
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    The hard part, is that any measures put in place, will not show either success or failure for the 3 week infection cycle.

    So lock everything down, your numbers will still climb for weeks - doubling every 3-5 days. Hard to hold your nerve politically in that situation.

    Only the last 3 days have we seen Italy's death rate slow. Maybe that's a sign of social isolation put in place weeks ago working. Maybe it's an anomaly.
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  11. #31
    Stario's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    It's not like there is any country capable of hospitalizing even 1% of its entire population at the same time for coronavirus (remember also that there are many other people sick with other illnesses in the hospitals). Of course it sucks for those who won't die from the virus, and it isn't always the case that the governments have your own best interest in mind either (actually, it almost never is the case), yet with no containment it seems likely you'd see tens of thousands dead each day, which is rather scary itself.
    Going by what italian doctors say, there are many in critical condition who are in their 20s and 30s, and one has to suppose that only a minority there had a compromised immune system from the start.
    Ye if don't flatten the curve the pandemic will not last as long but more people will die as health-care systems around the world buckle under the immense pressure.
    On the other-hand Covid-19 already mutated on more than one occasions & there are now at least two strains active- the longer this goes on the more chance the virus has to mutate again- which will mean people already immune to the virus could get reinfected for a second time and/or the virus could come back deadlier/more resistant etc...sometimes what is bad is good -if we didn't try to flatten the curve we would probably be over the apex coming down by now like China appears to be...


    But what is most concerning is the curtailing of our liberties.

    "...those calling for lockdowns should be careful what they wish for. The scenes in various European cities – in which people are only allowed to leave the house for a few essential reasons – are unlike anything we’ve seen in modern times. Plus there is no telling when such restrictions will be lifted once imposed...
    government is also preparing to bounce through a bill that will hand it unprecedented new powers to restrict our liberties.
    The Coronavirus Bill, published yesterday, would hand the state terrifyingly broad powers...‘the bill will enable the police and immigration officers to detain a person, for a limited period, who is, or may be, infectious and to take them to a suitable place to enable screening and assessment’.
    ...the lack of safeguards here are particularly worrying. The powers envisaged would only expire after two years."

    So these unlimited powers conceded to the government to detain any individual would last for 2 years!? The Fuhrer would be proud of you ENGLAND!!! This is much more scarier than covid-19.
    Last edited by Stario; March 24, 2020 at 10:47 AM.

  12. #32
    Copperknickers II's Avatar quaeri, si sapis
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    But what is most concerning is the curtailing of our liberties.

    "...those calling for lockdowns should be careful what they wish for. The scenes in various European cities – in which people are only allowed to leave the house for a few essential reasons – are unlike anything we’ve seen in modern times. Plus there is no telling when such restrictions will be lifted once imposed...
    [I]government is also preparing to bounce through a bill that will hand it unprecedented new powers to restrict our liberties.
    The Coronavirus Bill, published yesterday, would hand the state terrifyingly broad powers...‘the bill will enable the police and immigration officers to detain a person, for a limited period, who is, or may be, infectious and to take them to a suitable place to enable screening and assessment’.
    ...the lack of safeguards here are particularly worrying. The powers envisaged would only expire after two years."
    It's certainly a very interesting development. It's crazy how people are willing to tolerate a level of societal suppression which would have been labelled as the actions of a tyrannical dictator of the worst order just a few weeks ago. But this is not a few weeks ago. The situation now is something like a war footing (literally, in the case of France). Still I think it's justified, and whilst we should keep watch on exactly what precedent these legal powers will set, I don't think there's any cause for concern at present - these are not authoritarian diktats of a crazy Fascist, they're simply enforcing the greater good. Of course such powers can easily go too far, but if the 20th century taught us anything it's that extremist ideology is what leads to abuse, not curtailment of freedom per se, and we are lucky that in Europe we don't have any extremist ideologues either on the Left or Right in power, at least that I'm aware of. The exception is Orban's Hungary. Populists pose their own dangers to the public good, but I think that we have more to fear from incompetence than malice as regards Boris Johnson, Conte, Babis, Morawiecki, Matovic, and any others I missed.
    A new mobile phone tower went up in a town in the USA, and the local newspaper asked a number of people what they thought of it. Some said they noticed their cellphone reception was better. Some said they noticed the tower was affecting their health.

    A local administrator was asked to comment. He nodded sagely, and said simply: "Wow. And think about how much more pronounced these effects will be once the tower is actually operational."

  13. #33
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    its really not worth worrying too much about & ruining the economy
    I wonder why there aren't enough ventilators to cope with the coronavirus.

    Factories in China work 24/7 to build ventilators for Italy, US
    There's literally no country in the world that doesn't want to buy a ventilator from China right now
    I guess you are trolling, there is no other way to put it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    But what is most concerning is the curtailing of our liberties.
    No, what is even more concerning is the total disregard for the life of your countrymen.
    John Stuart Mill's Harm Principle:the harm principle states that the only actions that can be prevented are ones that create harm. In other words, a person can do whatever he wants as long as his actions do not harm others.

    ------
    ------
    As far as today is concerned,
    Active cases , Top Three
    Italy- 54,030
    USA- 50,702
    Spain -33.082
    Serious, critical ill, Top Three
    Italy -3,393
    France - 2,516
    Spain - 2,355
    Last edited by Ludicus; March 24, 2020 at 03:16 PM.
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  14. #34
    EmperorBatman999's Avatar I say, what, what?
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    If Spain got locked down fairly early in their infection period in reaction to Italy going into national lockdown, and have been in quarantine now for nearly three weeks, why have infection and especially death rates not gone down? I noticed that this topic has been largely avoided...

  15. #35
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by EmperorBatman999 View Post
    If Spain got locked down fairly early in their infection period..
    From 0 to nearly 40,000 infected in just 24 days in Spain, but I'm not surprised. March 8,thousands march in Spain on women's day despite coronavirus fears


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  16. #36
    antaeus's Avatar Whataboutery
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    From 0 to nearly 40,000 infected in just 24 days in Spain, but I'm not surprised. March 8,thousands march in Spain on women's day despite coronavirus fears
    More likely the spike was a result of the upswing of testing picking up more existing cases. This is supported by research that works backwards from death rates to predict more accurate infection rates. Based on Spain's death rate, they should have many tens of thousands more cases, untested - broadly spreading in the community. Not just because of one march.

    This is a repeat pattern too. Countries with higher death rates relative to case numbers tend to be under detecting cases - and assuming they have 2 cases instead of 2000 (e.g. Italy). Undetected cases are what are leading to the compounding effect of death rates in hospitals. No time to prepare, no planning for where hot spots might occur, no ability to pre-locate and pre-train resources.

    The answer as to why Spain's infection rates haven't yet gone down? They probably had more cases than they thought - so it's spreading within family groups and close associates, and places that are exempt such as work and health care. This is added to the 3 or 4 week turnaround time to notice a drop in cases. The disease takes a week or 2 to show symptoms, and up to month to kill, therefore there's a large delay period where reported cases will climb even as actual cases (including unreported) will drop.

    This was seen in China, and South Korea - where there is clear evidence that shutdowns work - they just take weeks to show it.

    And countries with lower death rates and higher infection rates are more thorough testers - Germany, South Korea etc.
    Last edited by antaeus; March 25, 2020 at 03:24 AM.
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  17. #37
    mishkin's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    From 0 to nearly 40,000 infected in just 24 days in Spain, but I'm not surprised. March 8,thousands march in Spain on women's day despite coronavirus fears
    In Spain there was no coronavirus fear in early March, I believe that in no other European country either. I think for once we (spaniards) are not behind in tackling a problem and it seems surprising to me the responsibility of the people accepting the measures taken (not spartan, but quite severe measures for what this population is, if you know what I mean). Whats your point exactly Ludicus?

    Edit for funny bit: On the same day, March 8, the alt-right/fascist party Vox held a congress in an auditorium (9000 people). At least their leader and one of its top members were infected.
    Last edited by mishkin; March 25, 2020 at 06:00 AM.
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  18. #38

    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by EmperorBatman999 View Post
    If Spain got locked down fairly early in their infection period in reaction to Italy going into national lockdown, and have been in quarantine now for nearly three weeks, why have infection and especially death rates not gone down? I noticed that this topic has been largely avoided...
    A lock down was announced about 10 days ago. Given how they were relaxed before hand, especially with the Women's March on March 8th, with about 2 weeks of incubation time in mind, its likely the cases haven't peaked yet.
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  19. #39
    mishkin's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Authorities say the bad news will start this week in spain.
    So, because you are lukewarm, and neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth. (Revelation 3:16).

  20. #40
    antaeus's Avatar Whataboutery
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    A lock down was announced about 10 days ago. Given how they were relaxed before hand, especially with the Women's March on March 8th, with about 2 weeks of incubation time in mind, its likely the cases haven't peaked yet.
    Like concerts around the world, a march wouldn't be a great vector for a virus. I'm sure it has become a popular beatup because its a womens march.

    But this disease is primarily transferred through surface contact, which is why it goes through families, retirement homes, public transport etc. A bunch of people not hugging, not touching stuff, but walking along isn't as efficient. And it's a red herring which takes focus away from real causes of transfer within the home.
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