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Thread: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

  1. #81
    Gigantus's Avatar I am thinking more about running away now then I did as a kid, but by the time I put my teeth in, my glasses on and find my car keys I forget why I am going.
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    I personally don't think the economic fallout is worth a virus that has a CFR of 1% (that's about the same odds as dying as a result of injuries sustained in an automobile accident in the US).
    The analogy only works if that rate is achieved while everyone is in a car at the same time 18 hours a day without regards (or base understanding) of the traffic rules.

    I do however agree with your earlier stance of not relying on vaccination when dealing with that vaccinated for sickness on a daily\professional base as there is a good chance that you may transfer the sickness. Not to do so would be negligence.




  2. #82
    Copperknickers II's Avatar quaeri, si sapis
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Ye I suspect depression, mental health, suicide rates, domestic violence (already seeing a HUGE surge over the last few weeks) etc. will go through the roof as people loose their employment, loose the 'roof over their heads', loose their business, face bankruptcy & personal/family relationships deteriorate as a result of the economic pressure.
    Indeed. Although it's worth taking into account the flip side of that, which is that this situation might actually do some good too. There's some evidence to suggest that economic crises actually reduce the overall mortality rate - nobody knows exactly why, but perhaps because a situation like this reduces pollution, puts a temporary end to bullying in schools, allows many overworked professionals some rest, allows working parents to spend more time with their children, and also greatly reduces the incidence of traffic deaths. Speaking of which...

    I personally don't think the economic fallout is worth a virus that has a CFR of 1% (that's about the same odds as dying as a result of injuries sustained in an automobile accident in the US).
    What do you mean 'the same odds as dying in an automobile accident'? Do you mean 1% of deaths in the USA are linked to car accidents, or that 1% of people involved in car accidents die? Or that 1% of car drivers will die in a car accident? At any rate you're talking total nonsense. Around 35,000 Americans die every year in car accidents. The current death figures after just 2 months of the Coronavirus outbreak in Italy, a country with 1/6th the population of the US, is 10,000. Four times more Americans died from Coronavirus yesterday than died in car accidents, even at this early stage in the pandemic. So this idea that this virus is in any way comparable to car accidents is an insult to your own intelligence.
    A new mobile phone tower went up in a town in the USA, and the local newspaper asked a number of people what they thought of it. Some said they noticed their cellphone reception was better. Some said they noticed the tower was affecting their health.

    A local administrator was asked to comment. He nodded sagely, and said simply: "Wow. And think about how much more pronounced these effects will be once the tower is actually operational."

  3. #83
    antaeus's Avatar Whataboutery
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Copperknickers II View Post
    What do you mean 'the same odds as dying in an automobile accident'? Do you mean 1% of deaths in the USA are linked to car accidents, or that 1% of people involved in car accidents die? Or that 1% of car drivers will die in a car accident? At any rate you're talking total nonsense. Around 35,000 Americans die every year in car accidents. The current death figures after just 2 months of the Coronavirus outbreak in Italy, a country with 1/6th the population of the US, is 10,000. Four times more Americans died from Coronavirus yesterday than died in car accidents, even at this early stage in the pandemic. So this idea that this virus is in any way comparable to car accidents is an insult to your own intelligence.
    Sigh. I thought we had moved on from the "it only kills 1% of people" thing when we realised that the 1% is in fact people. With families, loved ones, jobs, friends, etc etc. And that 1% is on top of usual deaths from car accidents and such like. And that 1% turns into 4-10% when the exponential growth potential of a 2+ reproduction rate is realised on modern developed health care systems.

    All I see when I see someone say "only 1% of people die, it's not worth the economic fallout" is sociopathy.

    The one good thing to come out of this thing, is that it is revealing very clearly, who are sociopathic a@#$h%$#s
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  4. #84

    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    I'm more interested on the effect this will have on the national psyche; will the american people be more likely to accept fascism if the death toll gets as much as 200,000? If these military style outbreak tens in Central Park become a traumatic sign of the times?


    Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Deaths Could Exceed 200,000; Social Distancing Guidelines Extended


    Americans were advised to avoid nonessential travel and gatherings of more than 10 people until at least April 30. Deaths nationwide approached 2,500, with more than 1,000 in New York. Spain asked the nation to go into “hibernation.
    Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/w...gtype=Homepage

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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    Sigh. I thought we had moved on from the "it only kills 1% of people" thing when we realised that the 1% is in fact people. With families, loved ones, jobs, friends, etc etc. And that 1% is on top of usual deaths from car accidents and such like. And that 1% turns into 4-10% when the exponential growth potential of a 2+ reproduction rate is realised on modern developed health care systems.

    All I see when I see someone say "only 1% of people die, it's not worth the economic fallout" is sociopathy.

    The one good thing to come out of this thing, is that it is revealing very clearly, who are sociopathic a@#$h%$#s
    You do have to take into consideration that the Coronavirus is subtracting from other causes of death. For a significant number of the virus' victims, the proximate cause of death will be infirmity or an underlying heath condition. In these cases, the virus is essentially acting as a secondary infection which finally overcomes the victim's ability to resist rather than as a root cause of death. Separating out these victims (who died with, rather than because of the virus) from those for whom the virus was fatal in and of itself, is a difficult task. Equally, and since you mentioned it, I'm certain that deaths from road traffic accidents will be significantly reduced as a result of the quarantine/isolation taking place in many countries. So even if the death rate is 1% (I'm sure it will vary country to country), there are too many complications to simply state that recorded Covid-19 deaths are "on top of usual deaths".

    Secondly, and on the question of the "economic fallout", the obvious point is that if the global economy is significantly damaged by this crisis, then the health services that millions rely on will also be damaged. If you listen to the socialists in the UK, they will argue that there were >10,000 avoidable deaths per annum as a result of austerity; if gov'ts are forced to revisit significant spending cuts in order to finance their virus bailouts, then it's possible that those who're being saved by the economic shutdown are costing others further down the line.

  6. #86
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    You do have to take into consideration that the Coronavirus is subtracting from other causes of death. For a significant number of the virus' victims, the proximate cause of death will be infirmity or an underlying heath condition. In these cases, the virus is essentially acting as a secondary infection which finally overcomes the victim's ability to resist rather than as a root cause of death. Separating out these victims (who died with, rather than because of the virus) from those for whom the virus was fatal in and of itself, is a difficult task.
    Ye I agree.
    Here there has been x1 deaths over 60, one death over 80, all other death over 70. I did a bit of research on some of the individuals & all had underlying health conditions -as you said the virus is acting as the final contributing factor rather than the root cause of death. Over here at least- the mortality rate of healthy individuals and/or just by virtue of being under 60 is 0%
    Now there is no doubt this will change- we are bound to have a case where a child or a young adult dies sooner or later. But I am willing to bet the majority of such cases will have underlying health problems.

    Secondly, and on the question of the "economic fallout", the obvious point is that if the global economy is significantly damaged by this crisis, then the health services that millions rely on will also be damaged. If you listen to the socialists in the UK, they will argue that there were >10,000 avoidable deaths per annum as a result of austerity; if gov'ts are forced to revisit significant spending cuts in order to finance their virus bailouts, then it's possible that those who're being saved by the economic shutdown are costing others further down the line.
    The economic fallout is looking likely to be worse than the pandemic. But I guess that remains to bee seen...

    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantus View Post
    I do however agree with your earlier stance of not relying on vaccination when dealing with that vaccinated for sickness on a daily\professional base as there is a good chance that you may transfer the sickness. Not to do so would be negligence.
    I personally think it should always be around 'informed consent' -allowing the individual(s) decide what 'drugs' they want/don't want to put in their bodies/ what the best approach should be etc. Forcing drugs on people without their consent would also be negligent the way I see it.
    Last edited by Stario; March 30, 2020 at 08:18 AM.

  7. #87
    Copperknickers II's Avatar quaeri, si sapis
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cope View Post
    You do have to take into consideration that the Coronavirus is subtracting from other causes of death. For a significant number of the virus' victims, the proximate cause of death will be infirmity or an underlying heath condition. In these cases, the virus is essentially acting as a secondary infection which finally overcomes the victim's ability to resist rather than as a root cause of death. Separating out these victims (who died with, rather than because of the virus) from those for whom the virus was fatal in and of itself, is a difficult task.
    Very true. Although if even 25% of the deaths are directly attributable to Covid19* it's still a horrendous number bearing in mind the rate of increase. And then you have the phenomenon of indirect deaths caused by pressure on medical systems which may already have added some unaccounted for deaths in places like China and Italy. Once the full number starts getting into the millions (and that is by now virtually guaranteed as far as I can see unless this global quarantine produces a near miracle) it doesn't make much of a difference whether the real final death toll is 10 million or 30 million. It would still be worse than most international wars in human history at that point.

    *That's a terrible name for a disease isn't it? I'm gonna start calling it batflu instead. Or pangolinfluenza.

    Secondly, and on the question of the "economic fallout", the obvious point is that if the global economy is significantly damaged by this crisis, then the health services that millions rely on will also be damaged. If you listen to the socialists in the UK, they will argue that there were >10,000 avoidable deaths per annum as a result of austerity; if gov'ts are forced to revisit significant spending cuts in order to finance their virus bailouts, then it's possible that those who're being saved by the economic shutdown are costing others further down the line.
    That would be contingent on the government using 2008-style bailouts and public spending cuts as a way of dealing with the crisis. There are other options.
    A new mobile phone tower went up in a town in the USA, and the local newspaper asked a number of people what they thought of it. Some said they noticed their cellphone reception was better. Some said they noticed the tower was affecting their health.

    A local administrator was asked to comment. He nodded sagely, and said simply: "Wow. And think about how much more pronounced these effects will be once the tower is actually operational."

  8. #88
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Copperknickers II View Post
    Very true. Although if even 25% of the deaths are directly attributable to Covid19* it's still a horrendous number bearing in mind the rate of increase. And then you have the phenomenon of indirect deaths caused by pressure on medical systems which may already have added some unaccounted for deaths in places like China and Italy. Once the full number starts getting into the millions (and that is by now virtually guaranteed as far as I can see unless this global quarantine produces a near miracle) it doesn't make much of a difference whether the real final death toll is 10 million or 30 million. It would still be worse than most international wars in human history at that point.
    But still nothing out of the ordinary by the standards of disease (~10m people die each year from cancer, for instance). In the end, you'd have to compare the deaths caused by COVID-19 to the deaths caused by other strands of seasonal flu to get an idea of its potency (again noting that Coronavirus deaths will be subtracting from other causes of death). Of course the problem with this is that we don't know how many people have or will go untested (particularly the asymptomatic) or for how many victims the virus was the proximate cause of death.

    That would be contingent on the government using 2008-style bailouts and public spending cuts as a way of dealing with the crisis. There are other options.
    No matter how you look at it, everything has to be paid for. That doesn't necessarily mean that nationalized healthcare services will suffer, but they may.

  9. #89
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Some interesting stats here comparing MERS, SARS, INFLUENZA, Covid-19.

    MERS= 35% death rate (2,500 cases)
    SARS= 10% death rate (8,000 cases)
    COVID= 4% current death rate. ( currently about 37,200 deaths +786,200 cases)
    INFLUENZA - up to 650,000 deaths per year; 5 million cases annually

    "Codiv-19 dwarfed by a much more lethal killer INFLUENZA - up to 650,000 deaths per year; 5 million cases annually."

    Something also worth considering (as already stated in this tread), covid-19 is not the primary root cause of death (this is the other real dishonesty here)- in majority of cases it is ongoing chronic heart disease, respiratory disease, obesity, diabetes, cancer etc.

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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Something also worth considering (as already stated in this tread), covid-19 is not the primary root cause of death (this is the other real dishonesty here)- in majority of cases it is ongoing chronic heart disease, respiratory disease, obesity, diabetes, cancer etc.
    Go to Italy and tell the people who are suffocating, that they are dying because they`re fat.
    Your argument with the primary root cause of death can also be used on the People who died by Influenza... something you omit, wonder why?

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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Morifea View Post
    Go to Italy and tell the people who are suffocating, that they are dying because they`re fat.
    I would be happy to.

    Quote Originally Posted by Morifea
    Your argument with the primary root cause of death can also be used on the People who died by Influenza... something you omit, wonder why?
    NO! my argument is that Both MERS + SARS have a much greater CFR of 35% & 10% respectively. While influenza results of around 650,000 death + 5 million cases annually. But we don't loose our liberty/democracy, allow governments unrepresented power to detain us, ruin the economy, & ruin millions of lives as millions possibly BILLIONS will loose they employment, business, & face loosing the 'roof over their heads'- this is the real tragedy here- AND the scaremongers as always did a fine job here. :-<

    But I suspect things will change real soon- Australia for example is predicted to reach unemployment rates of upto 6 million- not too shabby! for a population of about 25 million -I am sure the sheeple mob will soon realise the real impact of covid-19- as these same people struggle to keep the 'roof over their heads'.
    Last edited by Stario; March 31, 2020 at 03:16 AM.

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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    @stario: In Germany, it is devided in if someone has died with Corona or through Corona. Only the latter are counted. There are measures in our statistics, to make sure that somebody who has only two weeks to live because of sepsis, cancer, or god knows what won`t be found in the Corona- statistic. Other Nations are counting different, but thats one of the Reasons the German numbers of Dead are comparatively low.

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    antaeus's Avatar Whataboutery
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    But I suspect things will change real soon- Australia for example is predicted to reach unemployment rates of upto 6 million- not too shabby! for a population of about 25 million -I am sure the sheeple mob will soon realise the real impact of covid-19- as these same people struggle to keep the 'roof over their heads'.
    Australia has also initiated a moratorium on rental evictions and mortgage repayment holidays for those who are financially affected so no problem keeping the roof... and introduced wage subsidies for employees who's jobs are threatened or lost through CV-19 - and backdated it - so not so much of an angry jobless sheeple mob.

    If you're going to bring up a country as an example, then read the latest news in that country. I would have accepted you worrying about how Australia is going to pay for it's brand new crippling debt, what is the status of hundreds of thousands of backpackers and temporary workers trapped in the country or maybe ask the question why so many Australians seem intent on going to the beach during a pandemic...

    But you didn't bring them up did you... because you didn't think to look too deeply into your random example... and you didn't consider that a number of the posters here live with the reality you're randomly pulling out of your hat.

    It's a lack of thought which is also reflected in your core argument, that COVID-19 isn't as bad as all these other things because of absolute numbers of cases or absolute death rates. Which is stupid - the issue has never been absolute figures, but rather the potential for very quick exponential growth that can create localised crises. Go back and revise your argument based on speed of transmission and growth potential and we'll have a conversation. Until then you're just spitting into the wind.
    Last edited by alhoon; March 31, 2020 at 12:46 PM. Reason: Comment removed
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    mishkin's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Something also worth considering (as already stated in this tread), covid-19 is not the primary root cause of death (this is the other real dishonesty here)- in majority of cases it is ongoing chronic heart disease, respiratory disease, obesity, diabetes, cancer etc.
    Yes, lets be honest, suddenly a large part of the geriatric population and hundreds of health personnel have simpy decided to die now.
    So, because you are lukewarm, and neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth. (Revelation 3:16).

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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by mishkin View Post
    Yes, lets be honest, suddenly a large part of the geriatric population and hundreds of health personnel have simpy decided to die now.
    Oh no. They didn't decide to die. Their chronic illnesses killed them all. At the same time. While they had a flu. No connection of course.
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    Australia has also initiated a moratorium on rental evictions and mortgage repayment holidays for those who are financially affected so no problem keeping the roof... and introduced wage subsidies for employees who's jobs are threatened or lost through CV-19 - and backdated it - so not so much of an angry jobless sheeple mob.
    We know that fiscal expansion, not austerity, is the best response so this is a a good start, albeit some issues still need to be ironed out (but no doubt this is a good things -no argument here).
    We also know that a countries GDP impacts on the over all health care system & therefore overall health of that said country. It is a real possibility that the mortality rate as a result of the economic fallout/depression -resulting in a downturn in the health care system, will far surpass the mortality rate of covid-19 over the long run. It is looking very much the case thus far as if 'the cure will be worse than the disease'.


    Some more interesting statistics from S. Korea
    as of 24th March -8961 confirmed cases; 111 deaths

    > age of 80 CFR = 11.6%; 70s age group CFR= 6.3%; 60's age group CFR = 1.5%; those in their 50s CFR= 0.4%; one 40 year old patient died; one 30 year old patient died -the death rate here for both 30s + 40s = 0.1% CFR;
    NO deaths
    for age group 20s & teens.

    Clearly as already stated in this thread it is the other co-morbidities/underlying health problems such as obesity, respiratory disease, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, being immuno-supressed (such as the decline we see in people >70- at this age the immune system starts to go in to sharp decline etc), greatly contributing to who lives or dies.
    Covid-19 is just the last contributing factor that finally overwhelms the individual & not the sole cause of death- if you're going to blame a death on covid-19 you can just as likely blame the same death on chronic respiratory disease or cancer. These mortality statistics are therefore intellectually dishonest. As we can see young presumably healthy individuals have a near 0% CFR

    We should therefore seek strategies on how to isolate (lock-down if needed) the over 60's age group; & strategies on how to provide nutrition etc. to them without infecting them while they are in lock-down etc.
    While informing the rest of the population on the importance of good hygiene + PPE (such as wearing of masks in public- which WHO is actually discouraging?!), the aim would therefore be to flatten the curve as a result of natural immunity/herd immunity.

    It will probably be years for a vaccine to be developed -a much shorter goal would then be encouraging individuals who recovered from the virus to donate blood- we could for example take convalescent plasma from the blood of those that have already recovered from covid-19 & use the antibodies within the blood of recovered individuals to fight the virus/giving those at high risk such convalescent plasma etc.

    These draconian blanket lock-downs for everyone, every business & industry, to force the economy into a depression is absurd!? The lost of liberty/democracy, & most importantly peoples livelihood as they face years (not months) of unemployment, the loss of their business, home etc. will do more damage in the long run IMO.


    Australia has also initiated a moratorium on rental evictions and mortgage repayment holidays for those who are financially affected so no problem keeping the roof.
    Announcement on rent policy has been delayed x3 times already. REAL PEOPLE, REAL EVICTIONS! Unemployment reaching 1 million (not too shabby for a country with only 25 million population; & it's still early days -the prediction is around 6 million eventually unemployed -that's nearly a 1/4 of entire population!!!). Domestic violence up by 35%, & robberies (mainly looting of closed businesses/premises also sky-rocketing up). All of a sudden covid-19 DOESN'T look so frightening now does it?!
    Last edited by Stario; March 31, 2020 at 11:14 AM.

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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Covid-19 is just the last contributing factor...not the sole cause of death
    Can you stop the spread of misinformation? there are risk groups in every age group, indeed, but the smaller number of severe cases among young people doesn't disprove the fact that, for example, in the US, unexpectedly there is a high number of serious cases in younger adults; around 40% percent of the patients that required hospitalization were between the ages of 20 and 54.
    Clinicians who care for adults should be aware that COVID-19 can result in severe disease among persons of all ages, says the CDC report, titled Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). "Social distancing is recommended for all ages to slow the spread of the virus"

    Of the more than 500 people known to be hospitalized, 18% were 45-54 years and 20% were aged 20-44 years. Of those admitted to intensive care, 36% were aged 45-64 years and 12% were aged 20-44 years.




    I wasn't expecting this, but Russia now reports that nearly 40% of patients younger than 40 years old are on respirators. Well, that's the Russian way of lying. Or, who knows, there is a "communist comorbidity" that affects the brain function.


    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    All of a sudden covid-19 DOESN'T look so frightening now does it?!
    That's the reason why Facebook and Instagram Follow Twitter in Deleting Bolsonaro posts

    ----------
    A very useful link, John Hopkins. Up-to-date Coronavirus COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) | Johns Hopkins ABX ...
    Adults 20–44 account for 20% of hospitalizations, 12% of ICU admissions.
    ----

    What we need right now, apart from drugs, vaccines, beds, medical staff, intensive care, etc.
    1- Massive coronavirus testing with rapid tests kids FDA approves a coronavirus test that can give results in 5 ...
    It will ship next week. Doesn't need a lab.
    2- We already have - How specific are they?- IgA showing higher sensitivity,
    SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody responses in COVID-19 patients
    3- Use 1 and 2 together.
    4- Clinically cured/no disease with high levels of specific antibodies? go work. Periodic serologic testing to monitor antibodies concentrations.

    My two cents.
    Edit,
    expert reaction to plans for self isolation for over 70s.

    Last edited by Ludicus; March 31, 2020 at 12:49 PM.
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    Keep in mind that ToS apply everywhere in the site, even in the comments you leave in your post.
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    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    More,
    The Imperial College study concluded that if the epidemic was not aggressively contained, half a million people would die in the UK — and more than 2m in the US
    The coronavirus study that rocked the UK and US
    Five charts highlight why Imperial College’s research radically changed government policy. An Imperial College coronavirus model has had a profound impact on public policy since its results were shared with British and American official
    The researchers conclude suppression is "the only viable strategy" at the moment.(sic). Stay indoors if you want to save many lives and prevent health systems from being overwhelmed.







    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  20. #100

    Default Re: COVID-19: A bloody battle or a long war?

    You guys seem to be falling into the trap of simple statistics. Just because it kills less people doesn't picture the entirety of its effects. A disease can not be measured simply by how many people it kills. An other important, perhaps more important, factor is hospitalization rate. With COVID19 the price is much steeper compared to flu. When you're comparing COVID19 numbers with flu numbers keep in mind that you're not comparing average or per capita numbers. You're comparing 12 months long data with a month long data. If you're somehow pointing out that its not COVID19 but the underlying conditions that killed those people then you're ignoring the fact that if everyone stayed home for two weeks most of those deaths would not occur. Hospitals would not get clogged with patients. Doctors and nurses would not have to face being killed because of this virus. The least that COVID19 does is to create avoidable death. Those people that argue in such manner are usually the ones that have been untouched by the pandemic so far.

    Just because there is an economic cost for quarantining everyone doesn't make the pandemic less scary. It just shows how ignorant we are in the face of nature. The longer we prolong the quarantine measures the more people we basically kill and the more damage we do to the economy. If back in February, or even early March, everyone enacted a two weeks quarantine, this whole thing would be already over and the damage to the economy would be minimal. So, if some people find the effects of taking action that we were supposed to have taken weeks ago damaging the economy more scary than the virus itself their mentality that they're defending is the problem that's causing people to die.
    The Armenian Issue
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    "We're nice mainly because we're rich and comfortable."

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