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Thread: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

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    Roma_Victrix's Avatar Call me Ishmael
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    Default Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Given the current Coronavirus epidemic, now seems like a good time to bring up the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 that, during the waning days of WWI, managed to kill 50 million people around the world. It's called the "Spanish" flu because Spain was one of the few countries reporting accurate numbers, leading many press organizations to leave the impression that Spain was one of the few countries actually being hit the hardest by it. In reality virtually everyone was getting smacked in the dick, but the horrendous casualties of WWI and distraction of that conflict was enough to leave a false impression in the public mind.

    Anyway, here's an excellent documentary on the topic by Cambridge University, right out of the bat stating that the casualties from this epidemic were greater than all the military and civilian casualties caused by the First World War:


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    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Interestingly one of the early victims of the Spanish Flu in the US was Fredrick Trump, which died on 29 May 1918.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Trump
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Quote Originally Posted by Morticia Iunia Bruti View Post
    Interestingly one of the early victims of the Spanish Flu in the US was Fredrick Trump, which died on 29 May 1918.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Trump
    Well, time is a flat circle, and history repeats itself. Excellent point. Now his grandson is dealing with Coronavirus and may be exposed to it because of Bolsonaro.

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    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Well at least today medical professionals know that there is a new disease spreading and wouldn't diagnose it quickly as a simple pneumonia and at least the population is better nourished than during the Great War. But as in 1918 there is a misconception about the disease as a only local disease (1918: the Spanish Flu, today: the chinese/european virus), while its already an pandemic.

    Misconceptions seem to repeat too.
    Last edited by Morticia Iunia Bruti; March 14, 2020 at 04:56 PM.
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    And if there is anything this pandemic has shown us is how thinly veiled our civilized behaviour is. Corona has yet to display its full potential and people are freaking out worldwide, fighting almost to the death over commodities like toilet paper. I'm not denouncing caution, for that is absolutely essential, I'm calling out the hoarders and those who are panicking. Sincere concern towards this worldwide problem is called for, panic is never wanted and is detrimental to the efforts to contain this disease. Everyone needs to keep calm and take their responsibility. Here in Belgium we had "lockdown-parties" last night, going out to the bar for one last night because they are closing for the next three weeks (minimum). A ridiculous thing to do if you ask me. We just have to sit it out, be responsible and we'll be fine.

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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    I agree. People should stay calm and not just close everything because the world is a much better place now comparing to 1918. Back in 1918, hundreds of millions of people lived in extreme poverty and had no access to any level of modern medical facilities. Tens of millions of children and seniors were malnourished and could not withstand any infectious disease. Epidemiology has also gone a long away since 1918.

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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Quote Originally Posted by realIK17 View Post
    I agree. People should stay calm and not just close everything because the world is a much better place now comparing to 1918. Back in 1918, hundreds of millions of people lived in extreme poverty and had no access to any level of modern medical facilities. Tens of millions of children and seniors were malnourished and could not withstand any infectious disease. Epidemiology has also gone a long away since 1918.

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    Not to turn this into a political debate instead of a historical one, but it's worth pointing out that the current US healthcare system is already under loads of stress and in many cases unfeasible during a pandemic. Hospitals are not only clustered mostly around urban areas with rural residents still having very poor access to nearby facilities that are sometimes more than an hour's drive away, but the hospitals that do exist are often short of staff versus the amount of patients, lacking medical supplies, and operate in many cases like "medicine hotels" where people pay such exorbitant rates through for-profit private health insurance companies that they feel entitled to be treated extremely well. This is going to be a shock when ICUs are overwhelmed with thousands more patients than current maximum capacities can handle and we simply do not have enough beds and ventilators for everyone that will come looking for help. Nearby hotels and other places with beds will undoubtedly be swamped as temporary care facilities for sick and dying patients.

    Meanwhile, poor people who either don't have Medicaid, aren't old enough for Medicare, and are simply uninsured will drop like flies as younger working class people act as carriers for this contagious disease but cannot afford to skip a day of work for paid sick leave. The current bill that passed through the House of Reps only covers 20% of the workforce. Younger people are going to spread the disease like wildfire and kill tons of middle aged and elderly people as a result, while even some young people will die if they have poor immune systems and respiratory issues. Younger people also often have no health insurance. Our entire society and functioning economy is screwed if we continue this without universal healthcare coverage. Countries like South Korea already have single-payer universal healthcare and they have been able to afford giving broad testing because they don't have private insurance companies who are more interested in how to make a profit from this instead of testing as many people as possible via public funding. We still have a bill in the house that offers free testing, but it is not yet approved by the Senate, which has been out for recess this weekend thanks to Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell. We don't even have enough tests to administer broad-based testing right away and we made the situation worse by rejecting World Health Organization testing kits weeks ago.

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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Quote Originally Posted by Roma_Victrix View Post
    Not to turn this into a political debate instead of a historical one, but it's worth pointing out that the current US healthcare system is already under loads of stress and in many cases unfeasible during a pandemic. Hospitals are not only clustered mostly around urban areas with rural residents still having very poor access to nearby facilities that are sometimes more than an hour's drive away, but the hospitals that do exist are often short of staff versus the amount of patients, lacking medical supplies, and operate in many cases like "medicine hotels" where people pay such exorbitant rates through for-profit private health insurance companies that they feel entitled to be treated extremely well. This is going to be a shock when ICUs are overwhelmed with thousands more patients than current maximum capacities can handle and we simply do not have enough beds and ventilators for everyone that will come looking for help. Nearby hotels and other places with beds will undoubtedly be swamped as temporary care facilities for sick and dying patients.

    Meanwhile, poor people who either don't have Medicaid, aren't old enough for Medicare, and are simply uninsured will drop like flies as younger working class people act as carriers for this contagious disease but cannot afford to skip a day of work for paid sick leave. The current bill that passed through the House of Reps only covers 20% of the workforce. Younger people are going to spread the disease like wildfire and kill tons of middle aged and elderly people as a result, while even some young people will die if they have poor immune systems and respiratory issues. Younger people also often have no health insurance. Our entire society and functioning economy is screwed if we continue this without universal healthcare coverage. Countries like South Korea already have single-payer universal healthcare and they have been able to afford giving broad testing because they don't have private insurance companies who are more interested in how to make a profit from this instead of testing as many people as possible via public funding. We still have a bill in the house that offers free testing, but it is not yet approved by the Senate, which has been out for recess this weekend thanks to Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell. We don't even have enough tests to administer broad-based testing right away and we made the situation worse by rejecting World Health Organization testing kits weeks ago.
    While I agree this is a serious medical issue, I think the real question is:

    Can the current quarantine measures actually contain the virus? If you look at the countries that are currently in lockdown such as Spain and Italy, I would say no. There comes a critical point when the disease obtains escape velocity and simply cannot be controlled anymore with quarantine measures it will simply circulate through the entire population. I believe we've already past that point and nothing we can do can stop the disease.

    At this point, I think the healthcare damage has been done and this talk of "flattening the curve" won't actually do much to soften the impact. Basically, we're going to get hit with the full force of the disease anyway so there's no point in strangling the economy along the way.

    There was a time for strict quarantine and lockdowns, and that was when you had the first few 10 to 100 cases in a country. When that happens, you should basically close down entire cities with the help of the army, force everybody home, put infected people into monitored house arrest until they get better, and do temperature screenings. Europe missed that critical window, and now the geenie is out of the bottle and there's nothing you can do to bring it back in until it does it's thing.

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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Quote Originally Posted by Spyrith View Post
    While I agree this is a serious medical issue, I think the real question is:

    Can the current quarantine measures actually contain the virus? If you look at the countries that are currently in lockdown such as Spain and Italy, I would say no. There comes a critical point when the disease obtains escape velocity and simply cannot be controlled anymore with quarantine measures it will simply circulate through the entire population. I believe we've already past that point and nothing we can do can stop the disease.

    At this point, I think the healthcare damage has been done and this talk of "flattening the curve" won't actually do much to soften the impact. Basically, we're going to get hit with the full force of the disease anyway so there's no point in strangling the economy along the way.

    There was a time for strict quarantine and lockdowns, and that was when you had the first few 10 to 100 cases in a country. When that happens, you should basically close down entire cities with the help of the army, force everybody home, put infected people into monitored house arrest until they get better, and do temperature screenings. Europe missed that critical window, and now the geenie is out of the bottle and there's nothing you can do to bring it back in until it does it's thing.
    You are somewhat mistaken, but this is the appropriate thread for that discussion.
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    We are forgetting the 1889-1890 Flu pandemic. It started somewhere in Siberia or Central Asia and spread across Europe and to major North America ports and cities. The end result was about 1 million deaths. What is more surprising is that this flu didn't spread to Asia or South America.

    Taking a look at major Flu outbreaks:
    1889-1890 Asian Flu - 1 million death toll
    1918 Flu/Spanish Flu - probably over 20 million
    1957-1958 Asian Flu - probably 4 million deaths
    1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu - probably 4 million killed
    2002-2004 SARS outbreak - more than 774 deaths, a couple random cases being discovered every once in a while
    2009 Swine Flu outbreak - something like 500,000 deaths
    2012 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (aka MERS or Camel Flu) - 866 deaths, to date no vaccine and is still ongoing
    2019-???? COVID pandemic (aka SARS2 electric boogaloo) - to date probably more than 300,000 deaths, no vaccine


    If anything this shows the resilience of the Corona virus and its ability to adapt in order to spread rapidly and take on multiple hosts. A few of these the virus was able to use snakes, bats, birds, camels and pigs as hosts, mutate and then spread to Humans (it mutated to acquire these hosts as well).

    In the really destructive cases the virus was able to spread very rapidly and mutate to become more deadly. Those cases with really high death tolls are mostly the result of improper containment methods and poor hygiene. SARS for example was contained and eliminated very rapidly, and for some reason it did not spread as quickly to other parts of the world (probably the virus is slower than the others), and did not kill as many people because the death rate was low. Generally these things have a death rate of maximum 1%, with the Spanish Flu being the exception at a potential 2% or 4% (since they couldn't really keep track of this on a global or even regional scale, some suggest a number as high as 10% death rate among the infected).

    The one advantage that COVID19 has is that it spreads and mutates extremely quickly. Containment was also handled very poorly in most countries. Despite taking a huge hit, many Asian countries were prepared because they had learned from the SARS outbreak. But the ability of COVID19 to spread far outclasses that of SARS. The 100 year time span from Spanish Flu to COVID19 I think is largely coincidental. But it shows us how these Corona viruses can spread and mutate, and keep coming back in waves.

    The issue both in 1919 and 2019 was just that the powers at be did an extremely poor job of containing the virus. Granted in 1919 this concept was somewhat new and what with WW1... I don't know what their excuse is in 2019. Complacency I guess, too long since there was a major outbreak or crisis of any kind. I should have included the number of infections above, but anyway this gets the basic point across.

    Though it is somewhat strange that the deadliest strains tend to come from Asia, even the Spanish Flu has been suggested to have started in Manchuria. It could be a matter of bad hygiene but I don't know. The reason why Corona viruses do not tend to devastate hotter regions like the Middle East is because they struggle to survive in hotter climates, while generally thriving in drier cold climates, they also struggle in a wet atmosphere like South America or South East Asia. Perhaps the MERS outbreak shows that these viruses are capable of adapting to these desert climates, and then potentially other circumstances as well.

    Or perhaps... they are sentient, they are evolving, and they are coming for us.

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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Oda Nobunaga View Post
    If anything this shows the resilience of the Corona virus and its ability to adapt in order to spread rapidly and take on multiple hosts. A few of these the virus was able to use snakes, bats, birds, camels and pigs as hosts, mutate and then spread to Humans (it mutated to acquire these hosts as well).
    It doesn't help us that COVID has asymptomatic transmission for at least a week if not the entire life of the virus for some people where the others...don't nearly to the scale of COVID-19.
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidin View Post
    It doesn't help us that COVID has asymptomatic transmission for at least a week if not the entire life of the virus for some people where the others...don't nearly to the scale of COVID-19.
    That too. Which is why COVID19 stands out. But is somehow not as deadly as the Spanish Flu.

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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    It’s technically not as deadly but when it spreads so much faster that’s something of a moot point.
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidin View Post
    It’s technically not as deadly but when it spreads so much faster that’s something of a moot point.
    That has largely to do with improper safety methods. The infection to death rate is still much lower than the Spanish Flu. Which the latter infected about as many or more people than COVID19. The numbers for COVID19 will go up so long as people continue to interact and move around. Which will make COVID seem more lethal than it really is.

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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    And well, we can throw words like deadly around. But lets face it. Nobody likes being in the ICU. Much less in the ICU and on a ventilator. That screws you up. And even if you don't need a ventilator, lets just say you're not running top speed for the rest of your life even if the doctor can mark you recovered in your file. There's a distinct lightish to darkish gray area in here depending on the symptoms they've notice that you manage to show. It can be a hilariously grim roll of the dice. Whereas every other flu, it was...at least somewhat...predictable.
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    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Oda Nobunaga View Post
    That has largely to do with improper safety methods. The infection to death rate is still much lower than the Spanish Flu. Which the latter infected about as many or more people than COVID19. The numbers for COVID19 will go up so long as people continue to interact and move around. Which will make COVID seem more lethal than it really is.
    Is it however? The problem in the US is we spent a lot effort make medical care a free market next quarter profit expensive CEO kinda thing. Even if in the long run This COVID is not as deadly it might well be for the US over time since the system has not been designed with slack capacity (invisible hand says that is a waste) and of course how many uninsured die because they never go for treatment or get tested. Would 1918 be as bad with no world war and modern medicine? Also we won't really know till the fall see if we have a second wave.
    Last edited by conon394; May 23, 2020 at 03:58 PM.
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Is it however? The problem in the US is we spent a lot effort make medical care a free market next quarter profit expensive CEO kinda thing. Even if in the long run This COVID is not as deadly it might well be for the US over time since the system has not been designed with slack capacity (invisible hand says that is a waste) and of course how many uninsured die because they never go for treatment or get tested. Would 1918 be as bad with no world war and modern medicine? Also we won't really know till the fall see if we have a second wave.
    I think the casualty rate in the US is already being under reported, since I've read reports like these, and others where deaths at nursing homes aren't being as vigorously reported and people dying suddenly before they can get tested, even young people with health conditions that get indirectly exacerbated by having this disease that toys with the immune system: Why America is probably undercounting coronavirus deaths

    The Spanish Flu death rates were perhaps mistakenly and in some cases deliberately under counted by media and governments around the world, hence the impression that Spain was the hardest hit due to the more neutral and accurate reporting. History tends to repeat itself, I guess. However, with our more advanced study of epidemiology, this time we are clearly way better prepared for pandemics as a global community. I don't think we'll see as many as 20 million dead like the Spanish Flu, even with the inevitable resurgence in autumn.

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    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    even with the inevitable resurgence in autumn
    You are going to wait that long? With too few places willing to don masks and do social distancing and anti vaxx types already spreading idiocy before we have any effective treatment and no reason to believe you anything but short resistance - months (there is reason you get that Covid common cold every year) not that many maybe 2
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    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

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    Lord Oda Nobunaga's Avatar 大信皇帝
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    Default Re: Spanish Flu, 1918, which killed 50 million people around the globe

    It is probably being under reported everywhere. Sometimes they even report deaths as being from complications or some other illness. America has probably surpassed 98,000 deaths. China sure as heck doesn't have less than 5,000, at the very least 40,000 or 50,000, if not about the same as the United States. When it comes to how many cases there are that largely depends on if people seek medical treatment or if they develop symptoms. Otherwise it cannot be reported.
    Last edited by Lord Oda Nobunaga; June 01, 2020 at 08:04 AM.

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