# Thread: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

1. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

What makes it very contagious? We already had a bunch of people who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 flying to non-Chinese countries. I'm referring to the first few cases that have already been a month since they arrived in their destination countries. In all those cases they arrived in their respective countries without being detected to contain the virus. There haven't been a lot of cases revolving around those individuals due to being confined to a plane for hours. If those people could not spread the virus to the cabin what makes this virus highly contagious?

Originally Posted by Flinn
I see, another question then, if you don't mind: what defines a pandemic?

The point is, here in Italy news is using this world to define the Covid-19, but while I can make myself an idea of what "pandemic" means, I'd like to understand how really aggressive it is.. I mean, from my ignorance in the matter, if I think about a pandemic, I think of Black Death or Spanish flu, which killed millions and millions of people.. so is there any way to define a disease on its final outcome more than on it's diffusion? (which is what being pandemic is all about, I guess).

I think it's not a pandemic yet because its mainly in China. If countries like Iran, Japan, South Korea or Italy starts to show rapid spread of the virus like China have been then it will likely be called a pandemic.

2. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

An epidemic, which spreads about several continent or worldwide. Epidemic are multiple cases of a sickness in a region. But thats not necessary a deadly sickness.

In Italy all deads are old people (70+) with already health problems.

I think you personally are not in an actual danger, as you are probably younger and healthy.

3. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

@ PofG, thanks for the input mate; it's interesting how "the rate of spread" defines what pandemic is

Originally Posted by Carmen Sylva
I think you personally are not in an actual danger, as you are probably younger and healthy.
I'm not concerned about myself, I stopped bothering about death long ago (you know me being a Dudeist and all that ), but since I have a "public role" as a public admin, people seem to be expecting me to have an opinion on this... which I have of course, but since it's my opinion (which is largely based on my interpretation of life and humanity in general) and it's biased, I was just looking around for alternative figures compared to those that the news are giving in Italy (you can guess that I don't have much trust in Italian news .

However, from what I've gathered, I think I can safely say that this Covid-19 seems to be a virus only slightly more "aggressive" than regular flu, and that it's not really necessary to apply all those restrictive measures and that those general hygienic measures (like washing your hands regularly, etc) are a good prophylaxis in any case..

4. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Originally Posted by Flinn
I mean, from my ignorance in the matter, if I think about a pandemic, I think of Black Death or Spanish flu, which killed millions and millions of people.. so is there any way to define a disease on its final outcome more than on it's diffusion? (which is what being pandemic is all about, I guess).
The reproductive number (R0) of Covid-19 is currently thought to be in the 2 to 3 range. That is the average number of people each infected person subsequently infects. That is similar to Spanish flu. Some early reports placed Covid-19 at 1.4, almost as low as seasonal flu which is 1.3. Other studies have put it as high as 6.6. In any case, that number has to be brought bellow 1 in order to contain it. If it is not contained, it will kill millions. Imagine if the R0 is really almost as low as the flu, even then it will still kill more than 23 times as many people annually as the flu does.

5. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Originally Posted by sumskilz
The reproductive number (R0) of Covid-19 is currently thought to be in the 2 to 3 range. That is the average number of people each infected person subsequently infects. That is similar to Spanish flu. Some early reports placed Covid-19 at 1.4, almost as low as seasonal flu which is 1.3. Other studies have put it as high as 6.6. In any case, that number has to be brought bellow 1 in order to contain it. If it is not contained, it will kill millions. Imagine if the R0 is really almost as low as the flu, even then it will still kill more than 23 times as many people annually as the flu does.
mm I see, so if one would like to make a raw estimations, considering a worst case scenario where the Covid-19 spreads everywhere around the world, how many deads? It's purely speculative, just to understand the potential compared to other past pandemics

6. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Originally Posted by Flinn
mm I see, so if one would like to make a raw estimations, considering a worst case scenario where the Covid-19 spreads everywhere around the world, how many deads? It's purely speculative, just to understand the potential compared to other past pandemics
Given it rate of infection...10-100 million range as it spreads, I suppose. But it's impossible to predict as with such massive spread, mutations are likely to occur and change variables. But even worse, it'll most likely become a staple of seasonal flus and will score tens to hundreds of thousands annually.

7. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Originally Posted by Flinn
mm I see, so if one would like to make a raw estimations, considering a worst case scenario where the Covid-19 spreads everywhere around the world, how many deads? It's purely speculative, just to understand the potential compared to other past pandemics
If it indeed has a similar R0 to Spanish Flu which is estimated to have infected 27% of the world population and hospital ICUs don't get overwhelmed, then 46.7 million (7,530,000,000 x .27 x .023). I don't know how to estimate what will happen if ICUs are overwhelmed, so that's not really worse case scenario. I think it's more the expected scenario if the current data is correct and the disease isn't contained. The way to prevent that is to reduce the R0 low enough to either contain it or at least give researchers more time to develop treatments.

It could also be much worse if Covid-19 has the same characteristic as observed in its relative SARS while testing vaccines on animals. That is antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), which makes the second time you're infected much more likely to kill you. It would explain why young doctors are dying. That may or may not be far-fetched, but I'd rather we not gamble on it.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by Sar1n
But even worse, it'll most likely become a staple of seasonal flus and will score tens to hundreds of thousands annually.
I think this would be enough to lower life expectancy worldwide for the foreseeable future.

8. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Finally someone is broadcasting the truth about WHO. It is about time. Most of the governments of the world followed WHO's advise back in January and took a reactionary approach to containment instead of a preemptive approach and we are seeing the results of those decisions.

9. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Originally Posted by B. W.
Finally someone is broadcasting the truth about WHO. It is about time. Most of the governments of the world followed WHO's advise back in January and took a reactionary approach to containment instead of a preemptive approach and we are seeing the results of those decisions.

You know hindsight is always 20/20.

What exactly was the head the WHO going to do criticize china and achieve what. The new virus is different from SARS that is clear now but was it clear in the breach where CHina's response would have been effective? IS U Tube guy a virologist? An Epidemiologist?

But anyway since you don't like over paid bureaucrats I sure you happy Trump has cut and wants to cut more CDC funding. Before pointing at China remember the US is less prepared than it was 4 years ago to deal with a pandemic.

10. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Originally Posted by sumskilz
... I don't know how to estimate what will happen if ICUs are overwhelmed...

Well with Ebola (note I'm not comparing this disease to Ebola, just the logistic effects) the hospitals were effectively knocked out in some areas because of protective equipment being used up, staff getting sick and capacity being exceeded (which is happening in Wuhan already). That lead to a spike in all mortalities as hosptials were unavailable to treat existing threats as well as the pandemic, hence the bodies in the streets and on hospital floors.

There was massive economic contraction as well especially in urban services (even in largely agrarian economies with poor transport nets) and governments ability to react was diminished. Western countries have higher dam walls against epidemics but further to fall economically, and essentially naïve populations when it comes survival without support services.

Originally Posted by sumskilz
It could also be much worse if Covid-19 has the same characteristic as observed in its relative SARS while testing vaccines on animals. That is antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), which makes the second time you're infected much more likely to kill you. It would explain why young doctors are dying. That may or may not be far-fetched, but I'd rather we not gamble on it.

That's an horrendous prospect. Mostly we've seen elderly patients with a bunch of comorbidities dying but if the young can get slammed (as was the case with the Spanish Flu for different reasons) the economic and social damage is multiplied: if they are health workers multiply it again.

Originally Posted by sumskilz

I think this would be enough to lower life expectancy worldwide for the foreseeable future.
Indeed, if the disease becomes endemic and the chance of death is increased by reinfection then we'll be slowing down population growth.

A lot of politicians struggle with their time horizons. If economic damage would occur short ort long term they'll take long term over short because they tend to focus on the next vote rather than the next generation. A mate of mine in Railway logistics worked with the State Minister for transports (an actuary so capable of long term thinking) who told him flatly if something wasn't an issue in the next fortnight it wasn't an issue. I'm thinking the current President has a similar horizon.

11. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Originally Posted by conon394
You know hindsight is always 20/20.

What exactly was the head the WHO going to do criticize china and achieve what. The new virus is different from SARS that is clear now but was it clear in the breach where CHina's response would have been effective? IS U Tube guy a virologist? An Epidemiologist?

But anyway since you don't like over paid bureaucrats I sure you happy Trump has cut and wants to cut more CDC funding. Before pointing at China remember the US is less prepared than it was 4 years ago to deal with a pandemic.
Leftist defends corrupt Marxist...not surprising.

Leftist blames problem on Trump...not surprising.

Leftist lies and claims Trump cut CDC budget...not surprising.

Trump's proposed budget cuts the EPA and HHS (mostly salaried positions filled by Democrats). Language in the proposed budget forbids cutting funding to the CDC.

Reporting that the director of WHO is corrupt doesn't require a virologist, just an honest journalist.

12. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Leftist defends corrupt Marxist...not surprising.
Leftist points out that the WHO has no police pore no ability to override China's internal authority. What exactly would you say he should have done. Attack China and only encourage a oligarchy to double down on hiding the problem?

Leftist blames problem on Trump...not surprising.
Not blame. Simply a fact every trump budget has systematically attempted to cut funding for us government science support (either direct employment or funding of research) - unless its directly military.

Leftist lies and claims Trump cut CDC budget...not surprising.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/11/2...ng-coronavirus

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisette.../#2a15eb5c18da

nuf said. Also of course he dissembled the infrastructure Obama put in place after the West African Ebola outbreak. Of course because Obama implemented a sensible policy to coordinate US agencies in a epidemic/pandemic event (run by actual professional - gasp deep state and not political hacks )- but you know fake American president...

Trump's proposed budget cuts the EPA and HHS (mostly salaried positions filled by Democrats). Language in the proposed budget forbids cutting funding to the CDC.
Not true, but even if were great maybe i can just die from a toxic emissions or bad water.

Leftist would prefer the CDC was active in the Congo now and escorted my the USMC if necessary. Because you know the longer Ebola festers in humans but is not quite wiped out the longer it has to mutate (new hosts, new method of spreading). Also you know soft power. And finally sorry the wall is not going to stop a pandemic.

13. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Originally Posted by conon394
Leftist points out that the WHO has no police pore no ability to override China's internal authority. What exactly would you say he should have done. Attack China and only encourage a oligarchy to double down on hiding the problem?

Not blame. Simply a fact every trump budget has systematically attempted to cut funding for us government science support (either direct employment or funding of research) - unless its directly military.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/11/2...ng-coronavirus

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisette.../#2a15eb5c18da

nuf said. Also of course he dissembled the infrastructure Obama put in place after the West African Ebola outbreak. Of course because Obama implemented a sensible policy to coordinate US agencies in a epidemic/pandemic event (run by actual professional - gasp deep state and not political hacks )- but you know fake American president...

Not true, but even if were great maybe i can just die from a toxic emissions or bad water.

Leftist would prefer the CDC was active in the Congo now and escorted my the USMC if necessary. Because you know the longer Ebola festers in humans but is not quite wiped out the longer it has to mutate (new hosts, new method of spreading). Also you know soft power. And finally sorry the wall is not going to stop a pandemic.
There you go again. The search engines are full of left-wing media sites spreading this lie hoping to make some political cash on the virus outbreak. Of course, if you really wanted to know the truth you could read Trump's budget proposal for yourself:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/0...get-fy2020.pdf

From the budget proposal:

The Budget provides $476 million for CDC to continue current activities in support of all 50 Statesand Territories, as well as local jurisdictions, to track and prevent overdose deaths. CDC would prioritize expanding support to States and Territories to collect and report real-time overdose and robustoverdose mortality data. The Budget also provides$58 million for CDC to address the infectious disease consequences of the opioid epidemic. Approximately 95 percent of new Hepatitis C infections andone of every seven new HIV infections is due to injection drug use. CDC would focus on areas most atrisk for outbreaks of HIV and hepatitis due to injection drug use.

In the meantime, WHO has decided not to call this outbreak a "pandemic" despite the fact that it meets the stated WHO criteria for an outbreak.

And least I forget, Trump has asked Congress for an immediate 2.5 billion to address the virus issue.

More from the budget. Of course I wouldn't expect your sources to print the truth, so I'll do it for them:

Prioritizes Critical Health Research. The Budget provides $33 billion to improve public health byadvancing knowledge of living systems to tackle majorhealth challenges and improve diagnosis, prevention,and treatment of diseases and disorders. With this investment, NIH would continue to address the opioidepidemic, make progress on developing a universal flu vaccine, and support the next generation ofresearchers. NIH has provided upfront funding for certain projects in recent years and would continue this approach in 2019 and 2020 to facilitate efficient management of NIH resources acrossmultiple years. The Budget also supports cutting-edge intramural research by addressing the backlogof repair and improvement across NIH facilities. In addition, the Budget includes a new, dedicatedeffort to support research and develop new treatments for childhood cancer. Cancer is the leadingcause of death from disease among children and adolescents in the United States. The basic biology ofchildhood cancers is not fully understood and differs from that of adult cancers. The Budget includesincreased funding and an innovative initiative to enable the Nation’s best researchers and doctors tolearn from every child with cancer, providing the opportunity to comprehend finally the unique causesand the best cures for childhood cancer.Strengthens Health Services for American Indians and Alaska Natives. The Budget expands access to direct health services for American Indians and Alaska Natives by funding the staffing and operations of new facilities and extending services to newly recognized Tribes. In addition,the Budget boosts recruitment and retention efforts for qualified health professionals by fundingcompetitive employment packages for positions with high vacancies and building new staff quartersat remote sites. The Budget also begins a multiyear effort to modernize the Indian Health Service’selectronic health record (EHR) system to promote interoperability between Federal health systems,as the Department of Veterans Affairs transitions to a new EHR system.Enhances Emergency Preparedness and Health Security. Infectious disease outbreakswhether naturally occurring, such as an influenza pandemic, deliberate, or accidental, remain a serious threat to the U.S. homeland. HHS undertakes a variety of activities to prevent, mitigate, andrespond to outbreaks and other public health threats. The Budget continues support for a variety ofpreparedness and response programs across HHS.Game-changing Progresson HIV DrugsWith advances in research and development, biomedical tools are now available toend the HIV epidemic in America. HIV antiretroviral therapy has progressed substantiallyfrom the drugs available in the 1990s. Whatwere formerly multi-pill, high-toxicity regimens have progressed to more potent, onepill per day regimens with few side effects.In addition, there is now a groundbreakingsingle pill, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP),which is proven to prevent HIV transmission.There are more than 1.2 million Americansat high risk for HIV for whom PrEP is indicated, yet only about 10 percent are currentlyon preventive therapy.BUDGET OF THE U. S. GOVERNMENT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2020 47The Budget includes an increase of$10 million for the Strategic National Stockpile, comparedto 2019 enacted, to enhance medical preparedness for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats. The Budget supports priority HHS biodefense and emergency preparedness such as theBiomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, BioShield, and pandemic influenza. Thisfunding would enable HHS to continue to build on investments to protect the civilian population inthe event of public health emergencies related to infectious disease outbreaks, and other man-madecrises.As newly evolved strains of drug-resistant influenza viruses emerge that pose a significant threatto public health, as seen with the 2017 H7N9 avian influenza outbreak in China, the Budget continues to build on previous investments in pandemic preparedness and response capacity. Through theAssistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response and the Office of Global Affairs, the Budget provides $260 million to support investments in critical domestic influenza vaccine manufacturing facility infrastructure, continue the advanced research and development of improved vaccines, therapeutics, and rapid in-home diagnostics, and support international pandemic preparedness. The Budgetalso includes an increase of$10 million for CDC’s influenza activities compared to 2019 enactedto support vaccine effectiveness studies, help expand the production capacity of cell-grown vaccinecandidates, and undertake other high priority flu activities in support of the Administration’s effortsto modernize influenza vaccines. The Budget also includes $50 million within CDC to build up theInfectious Diseases Rapid Response Reserve Fund. These funds provide needed flexibility for HHSagencies to quickly respond to emerging health threats as they arise.The Budget includes$100 million to support CDC’s global health security activities, an increase of\$50 million compared to 2019 enacted. The Global Health Security Agenda is a multiyear global initiative to reduce infectious disease threats by strengthening the capacity of other countries to containoutbreaks at their source. Containing the spread of deadly infectious diseases through efficient biodefense capabilities is vital to protect the homeland and preserve U.S. national and economic security.CDC will implement a regional hub office model, allowing staff to more efficiently work in multiplecountries in a region, as needed, to support health security priorities. CDC will primarily focus itsactivities on areas where it has seen the most success: lab and diagnostic capacity; surveillance systems; training of disease detectives; and establishing strong emergency operation centers.

14. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

China prevents US owner company from shipping face masks back to the US proving Trump was right all along about China:

https://theconservativetreehouse.com...mic-contagion/

15. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

From the budget proposal document you are referencing - a drop in the total allocated budget from 6.8b to a proposed 5.2b (1.6b\23% - probably to support the tax cuts that are supposed to pay for itself, or is it for the army budget increase?):

You may want to have a look at the budget proposal from 2018 that already cut down the budget by 1.2b (17%) from the previous year before highlighting the paltry 475m left now for the CDC.

But the man is gonna look good requesting 2.5b emergency funding after culling even more then that during his tenure, that's the important thing, right? "We have the corona virus under control"

16. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

Originally Posted by Gigantus
From the budget proposal document you are referencing - a drop in the total allocated budget from 6.8b to a proposed 5.2b (1.6b\23% - probably to support the tax cuts that are supposed to pay for itself, or is it for the army budget increase?):

You may want to have a look at the budget proposal from 2018 that already cut down the budget by 1.2b (17%) from the previous year before highlighting the paltry 475m left now for the CDC.

But the man is gonna look good requesting 2.5b emergency funding after culling even more then that during his tenure, that's the important thing, right? "We have the corona virus under control"
Do Democrats have any shame? That budget was not the omnibus bill that was passed by Democrats who controlled the House before the bill was sent to the Senate for ratification. It is as I said, the 2019-2020 budget did not contain a cut for the CDC. The 2.5 billion emergency request is far and above the so-called cuts that would have taken place in the 2018 budget...meaning the press releases cited by 394 were lying.

It is difficult to express in words how despicable it is for the Democrats and their political allies in the media to try and cash in politically on an epidemic that might end up killing millions of people.

One thing I noted in the video from the White House that said 3M had been prevented from shipping the face masks to the US: if Trump is requesting an emergency manufacturing of several billion face masks from four companies they recognize that the situation could become very serious indeed.

The fact that China prevented the shipments to the US is going to reverberate to other nations who have their entire supply for medical equipment tied up in Chinese production. This will not end well for the Chinese. These are the very things that Trump has been warning about.

Oh, and by the way, you should have read the budget proposal. It includes 100 million to the CDC for the purpose of global pandemic control...a 50 million dollar increase.

I wonder how many other countries in the world are making that kind of contribution? Answer: None!

17. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

All that anger about me pointing out facts from a document you reference yourself? Or from the other document from the same source?

I am not up to date on the face mask issue, the link you provide in post #134 does not have any details about it, only an observation that not having control over a country means, wait for it, that you do not have control over what they tell you to do (or not) - have you got anything else, eg some official comments from China for the reason? An observation of my own here: patriotism seldom appeals to shareholders, benefits like low production costs do - which all boils down to production in China instead of US.. But then wasting taxpayer's money on incentives for shareholders' benefit to get production back to US isn't the kind of thing that makes a good election story.

Can't make heads or tails about your claim of a 50m increase in global pandemic control from the document you linked - care to link me to the detailed budget version you seem to be referring to? I guess it's part of the 'Global Health' section in the CDC budget? Which was at 425m back in 2016, a 12% increase after\over 4 years appears to barely beat inflation, so I would call that par for the course - nothing to brag about.

I am not too much into the gritty details of American politics (no voting right isn't an incentive), but isn't it the president that signs (or not) the budget? Which means taking credit for it also means having to take blame for it.

PS - I don't give a if the president is democrat or republican, I simply despise anyone that habitually denigrates anyone that doesn't agree with him. The amazing, and ever increasing number of misleading and false statements to further his ambitions is just the cherry on top of it. I am sure there could be candidates deserving my ire on the other of the political divide as well, but their light simply will simply vanish in the glare of Trump's super nova in that aspect.
Maybe we can try again without the hyperbole and grand standing and stick to the corona virus matter? I promise not to point out the issues I have with the president in return.

18. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

What do you guys think? Don't shoot the messenger (me).

And he talked about the impact on the global economy.

Also...

19. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

The search engines are full of left-wing media sites spreading this lie hoping to make some political cash on the virus outbreak. Of course, if you really wanted to know the truth you could read Trump's budget proposal for yourself:
I did not realize Forbes was left wing media in your eyes.

20. ## Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

You should know at this point, Conon, that "left wing media" just means anything that disputes whatever the current right wing talking point or conspiracy is. Anything that hasn't been specifically said by Trump is left wing. And sometimes even stuff Trump says is left win too if it contradicts things that the more recent Trump has said when he comes down off his Sudafed high.

I genuinely am amazed every day by the lengths people go through and the hoops they'll jump through to try to argue that Trump isn't a deranged, mentally ill, and incompetent grifter.

How has this become a political topic? If there's anything that humanity should be able to unite behind it should be a global pandemic or an alien invasion.

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