Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

[Heathen Hammer]

That's up to municipalities to decide.

Municipalities should not decide to ban activities that are also livelihood for some people. Again, in the context of the actual legislature it is quite clear that government wasn't justified and should be blamed for provoking protests against itself.

[antaeus]

Municipalities should not decide to ban activities that are also livelihood for some people.

And here we have heathen advocating the removal of all law. I for one look forward to becoming wealthy as a hitman. In this new world where murder for cash is acceptable.

We're way past argument to absurdity now...

Because the world is full of individuals with their own motivations, situations etc... governments make decisions that spur protest every single day. If they were to govern by 100% approval, government wouldn't happen. In this case a few thousand protesters nation wide is actually a minor blip of disapproval that media have latched onto because it sells subscriptions and advert clicks. If I wasn't a compassionate person I'd say let these people gather. Darwin award of the year. Who cares about a fringe group of rednecks who must have their freedom at the cost of their health. But I'm an empathetic and compassionate person, and their actions will put people at risk who aren't in the protests. That's where they cross the line into selfishness and where I lose any care for their freedoms.

[Love Mountain]

Municipalities should not decide to ban activities that are also livelihood for some people. Again, in the context of the actual legislature it is quite clear that government wasn't justified and should be blamed for provoking protests against itself.

Which legislature?

Also.

Compagnie Francaise de Navigation a Vapeur v. Louisiana Board of Health

No courts have revisited, reconsidered or modified Compagnie Francaise since it was handed down. It is cited in later opinions and commentary as holding constitutional the power to quarantine. The Supreme Court referred to it as such, quoting it at length, in 1913's Minnesota Rate Cases[36] It has also been cited that way in a Minnesota Law Review article.[10] In 2016 New Jersey federal district judge Kevin McNulty cited Compagnie Francaise, among other cases, in holding that existing case law on quarantines was sufficient to sustain state officials' defense of qualified immunity in a suit against them brought by Kaci Hickox, a nurse quarantined for 80 hours after she showed a fever upon her return to Newark International Airport from Sierra Leone, where she had been treating victims of the 2014 Ebola outbreak. "I do not find that prior quarantine case law establishes any unconstitutionality" in how she was dealt with, McNulty wrote.[37]

Four years later, as the possibility of that year's coronavirus pandemic coming to the U.S. loomed, The Atlantic cited Compagnie Francaise as establishing the broad nature of the quarantine power, "the most extreme use of government power over people who have committed no crime." It noted that, as it was at that time, the federal government still largely delegates that power to state and local authorities, which it was concerned could complicate a centralized response to any outbreak.

[Coughdrop addict]

BBC short 1-minute video on the Michigan protest.

Not sure what the Confederate flag has to do with what some TWC members claimed were concerns over "constitutional rights" or whatever. Or why you need to chant "lock her up".

Because the Confederate flag has always been the symbol of selfish, evil people who only desire to hurt others. And as for "lock her up" that too is typical of them. Any woman who dares think she is a man's equal or tells them no is a direct threat to their tender egos. I guarantee they'd be doing honor killings of their female family members if the practice wasn't associated with Islam.

Meh. Her tone is irrelevant. She is correct. People gathering in groups during a pandemic will place themselves at increased risk. If that's what they want to do, fine, freedum and all. whatever. But they are also putting anybody they might transmit to unknowingly at risk too. So by all means, have a cry about being talked down to by a politician. When you're behaving like an idiot and putting other people at risk, you shouldn't expect anything better.

They don't care who might get infected. They're being inconvenienced and that means the whole thing must be an evil plot by (insert right wing boogeyman). Part of it can be explained by many right wing voters believing in insane conspiracy theories, along with a lack of critical thinking ability and general lack of understanding how the world works and things interact with each other. But there is another, darker factor at work. One that goes to the very heart of the left/right split. Many on the right think the lock downs and social distancing must be part of some evil plot because they literally cannot understand why anyone would care about the lives of other people. Because of their culture-wide sociopathy they simply cannot comprehend why anyone would sacrifice for the good of someone else.

[Heathen Hammer]

And here we have heathen advocating the removal of all law. I for one look forward to becoming wealthy as a hitman. In this new world where murder for cash is acceptable.

You could literally supply every farm in the region with all that straw. Or comparing fishing to being a hitman is Olympic level of mental acrobatics.
"Agent 47, the briefcase with the lures is on the second floor, good luck."

Which legislature?

The one protests are against.

[Coughdrop addict]

As if the lockdown protests weren't insane enough.
Michigan Sheriffs Refuse to Enforce Governor’s “Overstepping” Lockdown Orders

If this nonsense by conservatives keeps up, Governor Whitmer may be forced to activate the National Guard and declare martial law.

[Muizer]

[B][SIZE=2]B. Not all populations are equally large. As such, to even it out I use deaths per million of inhabitants instead of number of deaths. UK, Italy and Germany all range in the 60-80M while USA is ~330M

I wonder what you'd get if you plotted China in there. I'm guessing its vast population would dilute the Wuhan death toll to insignificance.

As for the metric of deaths by corona, that's a dodgy stat. In my country, the numbers reported are only the numbers of people who were tested positive. There's an alternative metric being assembled which measures what I will loosely translate as "excess mortality". That is, the number of deaths in the population compared to the average deaths in the same period of the year. This suggests actual deaths ascribable to corona are far higher. Maybe twice what is being counted. Point being, taking deaths of confirmed cases as a metric introduces the country's testing policy as a variable.

[Love Mountain]

The one protests are against.

Spell it out for us.

[Cyclops]

I wonder what you'd get if you plotted China in there. I'm guessing its vast population would dilute the Wuhan death toll to insignificance.

As for the metric of deaths by corona, that's a dodgy stat. In my country, the numbers reported are only the numbers of people who were tested positive. There's an alternative metric being assembled which measures what I will loosely translate as "excess mortality". That is, the number of deaths in the population compared to the average deaths in the same period of the year. This suggests actual deaths ascribable to corona are far higher. Maybe twice what is being counted. Point being, taking deaths of confirmed cases as a metric introduces the country's testing policy as a variable.

The metrics are a difficult point for non STEMs like me, I understand the basics like per capita and per million, but I only see fuzzily how it pertains beyond that.

Comparing the apples and oranges further, should we break down Europe by nation or by region? I mean North Italy seemed to be harder hit than the South, was that a function of more old people surviving past their 70's? A more connected population? More urban vs rural inhabitants? More oversea's travellers returning and going to cafes?

I suspect the US is worth unpacking in this way too. Overall the numbers are much better than Europe's worst but how bad is say New York, taken as a city? As a state? I would not believe the Dakotas face anything like New York's experience as a state or city, or New Orleans say. My impression is New York is getting a little apocalyptic, and an easy answer would be some smug comment about free healthcare but it can't be that simple.

In my country our reasonable biosecurity and sea borders have given us a very slow start to this thing (still early days of course). We are highly urbanised so if and when it gets out (and I think its when, not if) we face something more like a New York than a Dakota.

Sadly with any vaccine over a year away its more about let it burn slowly than locking it away until we can shoot it: our economy would collapse if we had to wait 12-24 more months locked down and we're cashed up with Chinese resource bucks. I don't see anyone keeping it in the box forever, so do we burn it fast or slow? I'm in favour of slow but I see the validity of the fast burn case: get the dying over with, smash your health system hard for a month or two and build the herd immunity. Its a defensible strategy if your leadership can survive the political consequences.

In my home state the premier folded to the teacher's unions and shut the schools: the federal plan seems to have been implicitly to leave the kids in school to get slowly infected (with some inevitable leakage into their family groups) to build a base layer herd immunity. Now we need another plan to gradually infect the whole population slowly.

[sumskilz]

I wonder what you'd get if you plotted China in there. I'm guessing its vast population would dilute the Wuhan death toll to insignificance.

I'm guessing their numbers are BS.

As for the metric of deaths by corona, that's a dodgy stat. In my country, the numbers reported are only the numbers of people who were tested positive. There's an alternative metric being assembled which measures what I will loosely translate as "excess mortality". That is, the number of deaths in the population compared to the average deaths in the same period of the year. This suggests actual deaths ascribable to corona are far higher. Maybe twice what is being counted. Point being, taking deaths of confirmed cases as a metric introduces the country's testing policy as a variable.

Deaths per million is much better than cases per million for reducing distortions due to differences in testing. That said, excess deaths per million would be even better.

Although it may introduce another distortion. Stricter lockdowns mean less deaths from other causes. Less driving means less car accidents, greater efforts to reduce the spread of COVID-19 will likewise reduce deaths from other infectious diseases, and so forth.

EDIT:

The metrics are a difficult point for non STEMs like me, I understand the basics like per capita and per million, but I only see fuzzily how it pertains beyond that.

Comparing the apples and oranges further, should we break down Europe by nation or by region? I mean North Italy seemed to be harder hit than the South, was that a function of more old people surviving past their 70's? A more connected population? More urban vs rural inhabitants? More oversea's travellers returning and going to cafes?

Two factors you're touching on there - interconnectedness and comorbidity risk. After advanced age, the most significant risk factor (of those thus far identified) is obesity.

[antaeus]

In my country our reasonable biosecurity and sea borders have given us a very slow start to this thing (still early days of course). We are highly urbanised so if and when it gets out (and I think its when, not if) we face something more like a New York than a Dakota.

Sadly with any vaccine over a year away its more about let it burn slowly than locking it away until we can shoot it: our economy would collapse if we had to wait 12-24 more months locked down and we're cashed up with Chinese resource bucks. I don't see anyone keeping it in the box forever, so do we burn it fast or slow? I'm in favour of slow but I see the validity of the fast burn case: get the dying over with, smash your health system hard for a month or two and build the herd immunity. Its a defensible strategy if your leadership can survive the political consequences.

Apart from there being no real evidence that herd immunity is a likely outcome yet. Does the antibody count go the way or SARS or the common cold. Would you knowingly throw away millions of lives on that gamble? I can easily see us a year down the track, with an effective treatment coming online, and no genuine herd immunity having developed... And the heads of those leaders who toyed with herd immunity well and truly on spikes, while the leaders who tried to eliminate it from the outset up for nobel prizes. Could go the other way, but that's a gamble.

As for Australia... the majority of your white middle class Australians live comfortable in 3 bedroom homes with 2 cars and a back yard in the suburbs. It's not exactly living 2000 people to a building in Queens. So yes... if you're going to start looking into variances in spread rate like that... then California is probably a better comparison.

[Stario]

Many of us are overstepping lock-down laws & striking etc. as we should be!
We know that Corona virus deaths numbers are BS!
Places like Italy for example are reporting Influenza deaths as Corona virus deaths just because Patients dying from Influenza also had Corona. Who knows what other deaths those governmental cronies are attributing as corona virus just so that they can takeaway our liberty + livelihoods.
In Italy only 12% of covid-19 deaths lists covid-19 as cause!!!

[Muizer]

Deaths per million is much better than cases per million for reducing distortions due to differences in testing. That said, excess deaths per million would be even better.

Hm, well I guess it also really depends on what exactly you want to measure. If it is the effectiveness of measures, the you have to take into account almost all of them operate on reducing the chance of transmission.

The following is the number of covid19 hospital admissions (cumulative) in the Netherlands (source)



This pattern was already in place by the time the first cases were being reported. The pattern largely reflects chance: people returning home from holidays in N Italy (from locations where the pandemic hadn't yet surfaced there either) and subsequently partaking in Carnival festivities, which happen to be celebrated particularly in the South). There was another introduction to the South that can be traced just across the border to Germany in the same timeframe. This happened in the brief window when the virus was still largely under the radar.

None of this reflects a difference in policy. If anything measures were scaled up earlier in the south. In the North they are still tracking and tracing.

Moreover, the pattern is quite stable, despite the fact that measures are now rolled out across the country. And that's becaus measures impact transmission rates, and these need to be multiplied by the number of active cases.

In other words, the 'baseline' on which measures act is going to vary greatly from place to place and with it the tally of cases and deaths.

[Stario]

As of March 20, 2020 and out of a sample of 3,200 patients treated for Coronavirus, there are only 6 patients with no previous disease who died of Coronavirus and represent only 1.2% of the sample above mentioned.

"The sample from a statistical point of view is quite significant and if we extend these results to the totality of the data collected at national level which as of today ( reference: March 25, 2020 ) report a total deaths equal to 7503 and then it will turn out that 1.2% of 7503 is 90, which means that with a good statistical approximation so far throughout Italy only 90 Italians with no previous disease have died of Coronavirus."

[PointOfViewGun]

As of March 20, 2020 and out of a sample of 3,200 patients treated for Coronavirus, there are only 6 patients with no previous disease who died of Coronavirus and represent only 1.2% of the sample above mentioned.

"The sample from a statistical point of view is quite significant and if we extend these results to the totality of the data collected at national level which as of today ( reference: March 25, 2020 ) report a total deaths equal to 7503 and then it will turn out that 1.2% of 7503 is 90, which means that with a good statistical approximation so far throughout Italy only 90 Italians with no previous disease have died of Coronavirus."

So?

[Stario]

So?

Welcome to the craziest Orwellian regime ever seen in Italy since the birth of the Italian Republic, 2 June 1946. Mr Benito would be proud!!!

[sumskilz]

Hm, well I guess it also really depends on what exactly you want to measure. If it is the effectiveness of measures, the you have to take into account almost all of them operate on reducing the chance of transmission.

The following is the number of covid19 hospital admissions (cumulative) in the Netherlands (source)



This pattern was already in place by the time the first cases were being reported. The pattern largely reflects chance: people returning home from holidays in N Italy (from locations where the pandemic hadn't yet surfaced there either) and subsequently partaking in Carnival festivities, which happen to be celebrated particularly in the South). There was another introduction to the South that can be traced just across the border to Germany in the same timeframe. This happened in the brief window when the virus was still largely under the radar.

None of this reflects a difference in policy. If anything measures were scaled up earlier in the south. In the North they are still tracking and tracing.

Moreover, the pattern is quite stable, despite the fact that measures are now rolled out across the country. And that's becaus measures impact transmission rates, and these need to be multiplied by the number of active cases.

In other words, the 'baseline' on which measures act is going to vary greatly from place to place and with it the tally of cases and deaths.

All these caveats are along the same lines of what I had previously brought up with alhoon. The comparisons are interesting, but there are so many factors to control for, many of which aren't quantifiable in any clear way.

[Heathen Hammer]

Spell it out for us.

So you haven't read the original article posted about the protests? That shows.

[PointOfViewGun]

Welcome to the craziest Orwellian regime ever seen in Italy since the birth of the Italian Republic, 2 June 1946. Mr Benito would be proud!!!

Whats the connection? I'd like to have a decently coherent response please.

[Gaidin]

Whats the connection? I'd like to have a decently coherent response please.

Personally I can't take him seriously when he can't even name a proper novel.