Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

[Dekhatres]

just a flu bro

[Ukiah]

These videos show infected people collapsing to the ground in Wuhan, China.

[sumskilz]

These videos show infected people collapsing to the ground in Wuhan, China.

I assume that's mostly due to hypoxia. The virus uses ACE2 receptors to enter cells, which are particularly present in the lungs, but also in the lining of blood vessels, so in addition to not getting enough oxygen into the bloodstream, transportation within the circulatory system might also be compromised.

A lot of people need to be hospitalized for this reason, so that's why quarantine is important to slow (if not stop) the spread, because the percentage of fatalities is likely to increase if the healthcare system gets overwhelmed (as it no doubt already is in China).

[swabian]

The actual outbreak is probably unproblematic, but the Chinese leadership thinks it's a good idea to scare their own population into submission. Not much are being given.

[Stario]

The actual outbreak is probably unproblematic, but the Chinese leadership thinks it's a good idea to scare their own population into submission. Not much are being given.

AND while at it purge a few doctors, lawyers & anyone deemed an enemy of the communist party.
Ironically the county with the most deaths outside China is Iran with 10 deaths (last time i checked).

[Heathen Hammer]

I wonder when will our dear legacy media and woke progressives state that all those videos is just Russian/4chan/alt-right propaganda, that Chinese government is our friend and that there is nothing to fear.

[B. W.]

Hmmm, it remains to be seen whether the Covid19 disease will eventually kill more people than the Chairman Mao Virus, but one thing is for sure; 2020 will no doubt be a bad year for the financial markets:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/globa...don-t-act-fast

I haven't been able to find out how much of Wall Street investment is in those Chinese factories but it is a certainty the the figure is substantial; this would include pension fund investments and 401Ks.

Keep a close eye on the financial markets. 2020 could be a bumpy ride.

[Prodromos]

Amazing how much damage one bowl of bat soup can do.

[swabian]

I hope the cute Chinese media lady is alright, though.

[Dekhatres]

gentlemen, place your bets

[sumskilz]

From the Associated Press - Health officials worry as untraceable virus clusters emerge:

In South Korea, Singapore and Iran, clusters of infections are leading to a jump in cases of the new viral illness outside China. But it’s not the numbers that are worrying experts: It’s that increasingly they can’t trace where the clusters started.

World Health Organization officials said China’s crackdown on parts of the country bought time for the rest of the world to prepare for the new virus. But as hot spots emerge around the globe, trouble finding each source — the first patient who sparks every new cluster — might signal the disease has begun spreading too widely for tried-and-true public health steps to stamp it out.

“A number of spot fires, occurring around the world is a sign that things are ticking along, and what we are going to have here is probably a pandemic,” said Ian Mackay, who studies viruses at Australia’s University of Queensland.

The reason this is happening is due to the long infectious incubation period and/or infectious asymptomatic cases. In my somewhat educated opinion, what would need to be done to contain it is not being done for economic reasons, but this is short-sighted even if one's primary concern is economic, since the long term economic cost of a global pandemic will obviously be higher.

The article goes on:

The newest red flag: Iran has reported 28 cases, including five deaths, in just days. The cluster began in the city of Qom, a popular religious destination, but it’s not clear how. Worse, infected travelers from Iran already have been discovered in Lebanon and Canada.

The number of deaths is disproportionately high relative to the number of cases (at least compared to what we know from other countries). One could speculate that the virus in Iran has mutated to become more virulent, which is well within the realm of possibility, but the much more likely explanation is that there are many more cases in Iran than the 28 detected. Yesterday Iranians across the country were waiting inline on election day. I will not be surprised if in two to three weeks, the virus there is completely out of control.

[Cyclops]

Iran and South Korea seem to be a couple of worst case scenarios I am afraid, looks like it's off and running. Just saw a report some if the SK cases are linked to mega-church rallies.

There was a round up on Australian state media tonight (4 Corners hell of of a program) and Hubei is becoming a nightmare: people dead on hospital floors as staff are overwhelmed, doctors evacuated as supplies run out, apartment buildings welded shut (!), authorities forcing their way into homes to take temperatures and drag away anyone with an elevated temperature for quarantine, people shrieking for help and no one to come.

That temperature thing is worrisome as it seems to increase the number of victims if not the spread: there's a lot of conditions which cause a temperature. Mrs Cyclops "runs hot" as does Cyclops Jnr (we have to explain this to his doctors every flipping time) so if I was in Wuhan a half my family would be forced into a camp with the infected and not enough doctors.

The damage to the Chinese leadership is immense people are actually posting criticism online, unthinkable three months ago. This bloke Xie made a power play to remove his term limits based on populism fed by economic growth. That wheel has turned and if his own party don't get him I thinking the People will.

Sad days, China may have released a pandemic with their paranoid secrecy.

edit- good point about economic agendas Sumskiz, it was raised in the media tonight: Australia has some quarantine measures in place but a health specialist stated they could not be maintained indefinitely. In countries where economic performance is more closely linked to regime stabilty like China and Sth Korea the political leadership has less focus on biology. I guess it's less of an issue in Iran, as the regime has survived economic duress for decades. Religious ideology maybe more of a threat to biosecurity there.

[conon394]

The number of deaths is disproportionately high relative to the number of cases (at least compared to what we know from other countries). One could speculate that the virus in Iran has mutated to become more virulent, which is well within the realm of possibility, but the much more likely explanation is that there are many more cases in Iran than the 28 detected. Yesterday Iranians across the country were waiting inline on election day. I will not be surprised if in two to three weeks, the virus there is completely out of control.

Hard not to think you have an authoritarian government shoving stuff under the rug as the easiest answer. That being said I did read a analysis that pointed out you might see mortality spike in poor countries. The reason that while the CDC now say the China data is a 2.3% mortality rate the rate of cases requiring ICU time is something like 15-20%. That second could easily overwhelm a poor nation's medical infrastructure.

[Flinn]

Out of curiosity, does anyone have figures about how many deaths from the "regular flue" there have been in China during this period? I mean, having any comparison with Coronavirus would be awesome.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I have no numbers for China, but in the Flu season of 2017/2018 25.100 people died because of Flu estimately in Germany (1674 deaths laboratory confirmed).

https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infect...y_2018-19.html

https://influenza.rki.de/Saisonberichte/2018.pdf

Up to 650000 deaths per year worldwide (WHO).

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail...-flu-each-year

[sumskilz]

Hard not to think you have an authoritarian government shoving stuff under the rug as the easiest answer. That being said I did read a analysis that pointed out you might see mortality spike in poor countries. The reason that while the CDC now say the China data is a 2.3% mortality rate the rate of cases requiring ICU time is something like 15-20%. That second could easily overwhelm a poor nation's medical infrastructure.

Yeah, seems that's probably the case:

A staggering 50 people have died in the Iranian city of Qom from the new coronavirus this month, Iran’s semiofficial ILNA news agency reported on Monday.

The new death toll is significantly higher than the latest number of confirmed cases of infections that Iranian officials had reported just a few hours earlier and which stood at just 12 deaths out of 47 cases, according to state TV.

A lawmaker from Qom, Ahmad Amiriabadi Farahani, was quoted in ILNA saying that more than 250 people are in quarantined in the city, which is a popular place of religious study for Shiites from across Iran and other countries.

He said the 50 deaths date as far back as February 13. Iran, however, first officially reported cases of the virus and its first deaths on February 19.

Speaking to ILNA, Farahani said the situation in Qom is “not good.”

“I think performance of the administration in controlling the virus has not been successful,” he said, referring to the government of President Hassan Rouhani.

“None of the nurses have access to proper protective gears,” Farahani said, adding that some health care specialists had left the city. “So far, I have seen any particular action to confront corona by the administration.”

Out of curiosity, does anyone have figures about how many deaths from the "regular flue" there have been in China during this period? I mean, having any comparison with Coronavirus would be awesome.

The likelihood is that more people are dying of seasonal flu there than usual, since pneumonia is the most common fatal flu complication, so they'd be competing for the same treatment as Coronavirus patients. Normal flu case fatality rate is 0.1%.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Covid-19 is actual a potential danger for people with weak immune system and will be potential more dangerous for places, where the population is already weakened by famine.

It would be a disaster for East Africa, where big swarms of locusts are destroying the harvest right now.

An influenza or covid 19 epidemy in a few months there will be fatal.

[Flinn]

I have no numbers for China, but in the Flu season of 2017/2018 25.100 people died because of Flu estimately in Germany (1674 deaths laboratory confirmed).

https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infect...y_2018-19.html

https://influenza.rki.de/Saisonberichte/2018.pdf

Up to 650000 deaths per year worldwide (WHO).

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail...-flu-each-year

Tnx that's the kind of info I was looking for in general

The likelihood is that more people are dying of seasonal flu there than usual, since pneumonia is the most common fatal flu complication, so they'd be competing for the same treatment as Coronavirus patients. Normal flu case fatality rate is 0.1%.

Thank to you as well! Is suppose this 0.1% is considering deaths of affected people, not on worldwide population (or that would mean that we have 7 millions deaths roughly every year).
Anyone who's expert, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I suppose that the level of treat posed by a virus/disease is dependent on both the infectiousness and the fatality rate. I remember reading sometimes ago that diseases with very high mortality rate (above 50%) aren't likely to spread around much do to dramatic decrease of possible infections

However, if anyone has any figures about the regular flu in China (or any other seasonal, typical disease like measles) compared with Coronavirus, that would be great to know and to get a real picture about how serious this disease is.

[sumskilz]

Is suppose this 0.1% is considering deaths of affected people

Correct, so the comparison is 0.1% to 2.3% as far as we currently know, but as Conon mentioned, 15-20% of cases are serious enough to require intensive treatment. What does the case mortality rate look like when they don't get it?

There is also a complication in accurately making an estimate:

The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]

(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).

In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be:

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).

Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide.

If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get:

813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).

With a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator:

Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and estimating T=7).

Anyone who's expert, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I suppose that the level of treat posed by a virus/disease is dependent on both the infectiousness and the fatality rate. I remember reading sometimes ago that diseases with very high mortality rate (above 50%) aren't likely to spread around much do to dramatic decrease of possible infections

There are some other factors, but if patients aren't contagious before they're symptomatic, and the disease is quite virulent, people tend to die or become incapacitated too quickly to spread it far and wide. MERS is another coronavirus. Its case fatality rate is about 37%, but it's easier to contain for the aforementioned reasons.

Covid-19 is certainly much more contagious than a regular flu.

[Flinn]

Covid-19 is certainly much more contagious than a regular flu.

I see, another question then, if you don't mind: what defines a pandemic?

The point is, here in Italy news is using this world to define the Covid-19, but while I can make myself an idea of what "pandemic" means, I'd like to understand how really aggressive it is.. I mean, from my ignorance in the matter, if I think about a pandemic, I think of Black Death or Spanish flu, which killed millions and millions of people.. so is there any way to define a disease on its final outcome more than on it's diffusion? (which is what being pandemic is all about, I guess).