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Thread: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

  1. #41
    Praeses
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Well we've had a wave "don't panic, here's some simple steps" emails from schools and workplaces here. Meanwhile the shops have sold out of face masks,

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    ...
    I’ve heard that book was uncomfortably prescient in some aspects...
    Well the disaster that hit in 2007 wasn't a zombie plague, it was the sub prime lending crisis but the US was paralysed by forever wars and a complete lack of political will to act so he did get the "state of unreadiness" right. luckily this scenario is nothing like Oryx and Crake, probably the best plague book I've read.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  2. #42

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Well we've had a wave "don't panic, here's some simple steps" emails from schools and workplaces here.
    Israel has now banned all flights from China and instituted a two week quarantine at home for anyone who has been there recently.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Meanwhile the shops have sold out of face masks
    I'm pretty sure those masks are much more effective if they're on the person who has the virus than if you wear them yourself.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  3. #43
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Just when we thought it wouldn't be that big of a deal, WHO declares a global crisis:

    http://news.trust.org/item/20200130224918-c4gqz

  4. #44
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    Israel has now banned all flights from China and instituted a two week quarantine at home for anyone who has been there recently.
    Almost impossible for us to do as we have so many Chinese people (including secondary and tertiary students) who are coming back to school here after visiting Wuhan for LNR. Money talks, and our vaunted biosecurity gets to be quiet for a bit.

    Newspapers are reporting some private schools urging students returning from China to remain at home, contradicting all levels of Government who urge everyone who feels well to go about their business...

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    I'm pretty sure those masks are much more effective if they're on the person who has the virus than if you wear them yourself.
    There's a few sorts, apparently the ones with the little disc filters work better (obviously won't stop a virus but would delay a water droplet), Mrs Cyclops gets the real deal at her health institution (she also gets a week off paid if she gets a headache/runny nose).

    As you say cloth and paper might catch some droplets at the source: in my experience I sweat past those in few minutes (I guess I wear them in labourious circumstances eg cleaning my mouldy books out of the shed) so if I were infected I'd be better off in a plastic bag really.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  5. #45

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    I’ve been wearing latex gloves and a disposable P100 cup respirator on the train for the past week, and plan to do so until it’s over. Always people coughing and sneezing all over, packed like sardines. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t. I figure it’s better than nothing.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  6. #46
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.


  7. #47
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Common Soldier View Post
    Maybe China's response wasn't perfect, but it was an improvement over its response to SARS, which shows it learned something. I am not convinced the US response would have been any better.
    Quite right.Let's summarize,
    -In December 2019, an outbreak of apparently viral pneumonia of unknown etiology emerged in the city of Wuhan, in the Chinese province of Hubei.
    -On January 9, 2020, the Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization (WHO) announced the discovery of a novel coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, which was confirmed as the agent responsible for the pneumonia cases.
    -Over the weekend of January 11-12, the Chinese authorities shared the full sequence of the coronavirus genome.
    Published in the Lancet on 24 January, A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health ... - The Lancet
    - On Friday January 24, late in the morning, the Institut Pasteur received samples of three suspected cases
    - On January 30, The Institut Pasteur obtains and shares the whole sequence of the virus, becoming the first institution in Europe to sequence the virus since the start of the outbreak.

    -----
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    can someone explain why in the US, sanitary authorities ask evacuees to stay just three days in a military base. " the risk is very low, they are not in quarantine order". Watch the video. https://youtu.be/uz_1vNLuKyw

    An optimistic approach.
    Finally! they have changed their minds. The Trump administration has declared a public health emergency. From the news,
    The action means that U.S. citizens who have been in Hubei province China in the past 14 days will be subject to 14 days of mandatory quarantine if they travel back to the United States.Earlier Friday, federal officials announced that American citizens who had evacuated from Wuhan earlier in the week would be quarantined for 14 days at March Air Reserve Base in Southern California.
    The action represents the first time in 50 years the U.S. has instituted a quarantine order.
    Legio, my friend: I make all your words mine: "I suppose the mea culpas are underway and heads will roll"
    Last edited by Ludicus; January 31, 2020 at 05:57 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
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  8. #48

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Legio, my friend: I make all your words mine: "I suppose the mea culpas are underway and heads will roll"
    My friend, I understand that as a lefty you may be enamored with or defensive of the Chinese model, but I’m not sure how your comments relate to my post. The fact remains that the Chinese tried and failed to cover this all up in the first place, so they shouldn’t be getting any pats on the back for doing a 180 after the disease has spread all over the world and they must save face. If the US quarantines 50 million+ people after arresting and censoring her own citizens for trying to alert the public regarding a dangerous disease, you will indeed have my concession that perhaps I was wrong to hold up the US as an alternative to the authoritarian model.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  9. #49
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    My friend, I understand that as a lefty you may be enamored with or defensive of the Chinese model.
    Read my posts.Google Portugal, Socialist Party. We fought and defeated the communist threat. I am not communist.That being said, the distinguished characteristic of the fanatic is his highly simplified/rigidly held view of his favorite enemy. Here, in fact, there are communists in the Parliament, democratically elected. Portugal parliamentary election 2019: Who are the main parties
    List of communist parties represented in European Parliament

    So, respecting the will of the people, there can be no doubt, lies at the heart of any democratic system, unless you want to change the system. One more thing: defeat Trump at the ballot box,instead of impeaching him.

    I was wrong to hold up the US as an alternative to the authoritarian model.
    No, you are not wrong, the US is the paradigm of a free country. A great country, and the next President will be Sanders, against the will of the DNC.

    China is a communist/capitalist country.Well, Bolsonaro in China says: I'm in a capitalist country"
    Some marxists are not happy, Chinese masses caught between disease & dictatorship
    Some capitalists are not happy.Coronavirus and the Panic Epidemic - The New York Times
    What about the the scientific community ?WHO Praises China as Country That Deserves 'Gratitude and

    -----
    Quote Originally Posted by Aexodus View Post
    I highly doubt they actually care about keeping the public safe in national crises
    What do you think they eat for breakfast? little babies.
    Last edited by Ludicus; January 31, 2020 at 07:18 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  10. #50

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    This is not good news (PDF):

    Abstract: We estimate the effective reproduction number for 2019-nCoV based on the daily reported27 cases from China CDC. The results indicate that 2019-nCoV has a higher effective28 reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate.
    It's a preprint, so not yet peer-reviewed, but if the data they have is correct, the model is correct. Considering the long infectious latency period, this is going to make it very difficult to contain:



    R0 is the average number of people each infected person passes the disease on to. Normal seasonal flu is about 1.3 for example.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  11. #51
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    I've heard the fully insane version of that rumour, that China is kicking off WW3 from Wuhan because apparently it's best to roll out biological attacks on your own territory. Hardly a weapons grade virus. "Lets kill all the elderly smokers and diabetics, that will bring them to their knees".

    Talking it over with the missus and the real threat is twofold. 1. The only effective treatments are extremely resource intensive. Intubation, monitored breathing management, and slightly tricky drug regimes (for some reason the usual steroid treatments aren't automatically indicated with ARDS type pneumonia) not to mention a bloody arduous PPE regime. Old men tend to be politically able to demand resources so there's a chance (given Sumskilz worrying preliminary modelling on infection rates) that health services will be literally overwhelmed and then General morbidity goes up because all the nurses are off sick. Then a bunch of people will die from type A flu for lack of care and the bodies will really stack up.

    So while almost all the casualties were pretty much locks to die soon (average age is over 50, lots of smokers, heaps of comorbidities including lots of fungal infections) the slightly increased numbers happening in a short period who demand pretty expensive care presents logistical problems for health services.

    2. The other problem is the possibility of mutation into something quicker or otherwise more deadly.

    Things are quite bad enough without that happening. If it's anything as infectious as suggested a lot of people will die for lack of adequate care.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  12. #52
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by JP226 View Post
    So fitting that a bunch of thieving Chinese stole the virus from a Canadian lab and then couldn’t contain it. Wait til this filters over to Africa with the Chinese holdings there.

    A literal article that no one knew about at the time coming back to haunt us...

    https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5307424?__t...mpression=true
    None of that follows from the article in question.

    But before you get to happy enjoy the fact Trump has systemically killed US pandemic response.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31...ency-response/

    2. The other problem is the possibility of mutation into something quicker or otherwise more deadly.
    Yep good thing nobody seems to care about the now rather persistent Ebola outbreak in the DRC. One has to wonder if the fact its affecting only poor black people in what I believe our glorious leader calls sh-t countries that there is no mass vaccination effort only selective. The longer it stays about in humans at low level the longer the chance for a jump by the virus. But who knows maybe the wall will stop virus spread.
    Last edited by conon394; February 01, 2020 at 11:23 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

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    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  13. #53
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    This is not good news (PDF):
    It's a preprint, so not yet peer-reviewed, but if the data they have is correct, the model is correct. Considering the long infectious latency period, this is going to make it very difficult to contain:

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    R0 is the average number of people each infected person passes the disease on to. Normal seasonal flu is about 1.3 for example.
    In relation to @sumskilz’s useful findings, it seems that distortions in calculating spreading rates could be caused by those with differing propensities to transmit virus. There are what are called “Super Spreaders” who have a higher infection rate by emitting more of a virus.

    Tracking the spread of disease requires precision and math. But super-spreaders, who transmit germs faster and further than other patients, can confound the model.

    https://www.wired.com/story/wuhan-co...-be-wildcards/
    This article though cannot explain what makes these people more contagious? How does such a virus replicate itself in such quantities to spread that quickly prior to symptoms emerging? Overall though, I am concerned that there remain so many questions in relating to this new virus.

    Despite claims that it all started in a food market from an infected animal, the source animal has not been identified. Claims that “it could be a bat” aren’t good enough when trying to tackle a likely pandemic. What happened to all those animals in the market were they destroyed, because if they were that was a huge blunder. Now through lack of clear evidence, People are even throwing their pets out of apartment windows through fear and ignorance.

    A doctor from the World Health Organisation actually said in an interview I saw two days ago, that they were not entirely sure whether air droplets is the only method of infection. All in all it is worrying because despite the lock downs down since this coronavirus was identified, it seems to be always one jump ahead from being contained. The emergence of the virus just at the time of the Chinese Lunar Year and the travel associated was certainly a key part of that. The authorities locked the stable door after the horse had bolted and now it is in every region in China. Any hope of locking down the virus now appear lost unless the whole country is quarantined and the impact upon the world economy would be very severe indeed..

    Researchers in Hong Kong on Friday estimated there could be more than 75,000 people in Wuhan alone infected with the virus. They warned that their model suggested that "epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1-2 weeks."

    US officials prepare for a coronavirus pandemic, declare 'public health emergency'
    https://www.livescience.com/us-prepa...t-in-case.html
    Last edited by caratacus; February 01, 2020 at 11:56 AM.

  14. #54
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    The statistical modelling is only as good as the data. So if we doubt the Chinese numbers that we have to have some doubt about these results. Not sure how the propaganda efforts would affect those though (if they minimised it initially then I guess it might be worse?) but you can say it looks likely there will be exponentially more cases than SARS.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  15. #55
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    This is not good news
    In fact, the new virus is more contagious than the SARS ( less deadly, perhaps). Add to their potential for a longer latency period, there is also a longer period of survival of the virus on environmental surfaces.The SARS virus can survive after drying on plastic surfaces for up to 48 hours.Both influenza A and B viruses survived for 24-48 hr on hard, nonporous surfaces such as stainless steel and plastic but survived for less than 8-12 hr on cloth, paper and tissues and survived on hands for up to 5 min after transfer from the environmental surfaces.
    From what I heard from a friend of mine, virologist (interviewed on the TV just a few minutes ago) the new corona virus can survive on environmental surfaces for up 72 hours.
    --
    From the news,
    The U.S., Australia, Japan, Vietnam and Singapore have announced strict travel restrictions against visitors flying in from China, even as the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended against “limiting trade and movement” as a response to containing the new coronavirus
    In fact, US bars foreigners who recently visited China
    ... but the WHO warns travel bans to limit the spread of the new coronavirus from China could backfire and lead to a worsening of the epidemic worldwide Curbs on Travelers from China to Limit Spread of Coronavirus

    The World Health Organization warns travel bans to limit the spread of the new coronavirus from China could backfire and lead to a worsening of the epidemic worldwide
    Meanwhile, an A380 passenger plane left Portugal on Thursday en route to pick up 350 Europeans in China.The flight was coordinated between European Union countries and Chinese authorities. Plane Leaves Portugal to Evacuate Europeans From China
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  16. #56
    B. W.'s Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Seems kind of ironic to me that a lot of expats who have praised China while enriching themselves with cheap labor are now trying to get the hell out of China.

  17. #57
    Stario's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    pfft this is all a media hype to scare the commoners.
    Annual flu epidemics are responsible for +600K deaths, are we all frightened now!?

  18. #58
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    pfft this is all a media hype to scare the commoners.
    Annual flu epidemics are responsible for +600K deaths, are we all frightened now!?
    Not so consider China confirmed cases 14,412 with 304 deaths just over 2% mortality. In the US at least regular influenza unlikely to break 1% That is only in a year where the flue vaccine experts got the strain wrong. If they are correct well mortality is someplace under one tenth of a percent.

    Its true the mortality rate is not Ebola like but if it becomes endemic it certainly would be more unfortunate than the normal flue as a regular illness.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  19. #59

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Not so consider China confirmed cases 14,412 with 304 deaths just over 2% mortality.
    Also, that's 304 ÷ 14,412 so the real mortality has to be higher than that (possibly significantly so), because people don't die the moment they are confirmed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  20. #60
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Well yes. But my point was that the CDC numbers for the US for influenza are statistically modeled and take into account missed diagnoses and all potential mortality. Who knows how good the data out of China is? The fact is even if the data from China is solid so far its not a new virus we should want to allow to become endemic if we can avoid it. Its not the zombie apocalypse/1918 (well unless China is not fessing up) but its something to give a crap about contra Stario.
    Last edited by conon394; February 02, 2020 at 08:31 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

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