Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

[conon394]

I'm pretty sure the cases in the US far surpass those in South Korea. The reason why Korea has such a high amount of cases is their incredible testing capabilities. Plus, I'm sure, Americans would not go see a doctor for mild flu symptoms, especially because they are distrustful of government. Koreans, on the other hand, are quite submissive vis-a-vis their government, which is why testing actually works here in South Korea.

Let me fix that for sure some are distrustful, but I think you missed the bits about no or sha-t health care and no sick time...

[Diamat]

I wouldn't say that the Korean work environment is any better. Korean workers typically don't even take their vacation days. The Korean health care system is also not one of the best. What makes this situation unique is that in the current situation Korean workers are encouraged to work from home or stay home without any pay. This is due to societal and patriotic pressure to stop the spread of the virus and not have your company associated with the virus. If, in any way, a Korean is associated with spreading the virus, he is seen as a national traitor. That's why alcohol companies are donating their alcohol to produce hand sanitizer. Everyone is competing to look as patriotic as possible.

[Morifea]

Reminds me of this:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_g...f%C3%BCr_Eisen

For the Non-Germans: In wartimes it was expected to give away the personal gold (even weddingrings) to the government to buy fancy weapons, they got Iron medals and iron Rings for it to show their patriotism.

So for Korea: Boooze I gave for desinfect :-)

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Diamat]

Actually, Korea did a similar thing during the economic crisis in the late 90s, encouraging people to donate their gold to pay off the national debt.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold-collecting_campaign

[Gaidin]

Who would've thought the US had the more honest money making industry. Wow.

[Copperknickers II]

This is basically a modern Spanish Flu, but a bit more...normal in how it can spread. And whether it can kill you really just comes down to what your current condition is and whether you know how to take care of yourself. And whether you trust your local medical professionals.

The problem is, all it takes is 5-10% of the population to get symptoms of the virus (of whom they say 10-15% require hospital treatment) and hospitals will be completely swamped. There simply won't be enough beds or staff to treat such a sudden increase in patients. And if that happens the death rate could increase. We're looking at tens of millions of deaths worldwide unless containment measures are massively increased, or unless we have a stroke of luck like hot weather affecting the disease.

[conon394]

The problem is, all it takes is 5-10% of the population to get symptoms of the virus (of whom they say 10-15% require hospital treatment) and hospitals will be completely swamped. There simply won't be enough beds or staff to treat such a sudden increase in patients. And if that happens the death rate could increase. We're looking at tens of millions of deaths worldwide unless containment measures are massively increased, or unless we have a stroke of luck like hot weather affecting the disease.

Well that is the problem for the US with the level of uninsured and people without sick leave we face a real problem of people waiting till they are very ill with various secondary effects.

and contra Phier above

In over 65 the death rate of infections is 1.3% (estimated high end) for the 'normal' flu.

Sure it is but the death rate or the Covid-19 is 7-13%+ in that category and unlike influence there is neither a vaccine nor an anti viral treatment.

[sumskilz]

A recent Sacramento County press release:

Sacramento County announced today that it will shift its effort to community mitigation measures that will slow the spread of COVID-19 in the community, protect those who are most vulnerable to severe illness, and allow our health care system to prepare resources to take care of severely ill patients. These new measures will include cessation of 14-day quarantines.

Who could possibly argue with this logic?



While the above illustration makes the point, it contains an important error. The area of the blue section should also be significantly smaller than the area of the red section. However, we can at least assume that its creator is less mathematically ignorant than much of the political class around the world (see the quote above for example).

[B. W.]

A recent Sacramento County press release:

Who could possibly argue with this logic?



While the above illustration makes the point, it contains an important error. The area of the blue section should also be significantly smaller than the area of the red section. However, we can at least assume that its creator is less mathematically ignorant than much of the political class around the world (see the quote above for example).

Well, I guess that's one way to solve the Social Security shortfall.

[Stario]

The plebs here down-under are hording toilet paper. It got so bad there was no toilet paper around in last 2-3 weeks (empty store shelves)- so stores are now imposing a limit to x2 packets of toilet paper per customer.
On the otherhand I am no pleb- I've been hording BEER -makes way more sense than hording toilet paper IMO LOL.

The problem is the media always exaggerating things got the commoners panicking about doomsday scenario. This is worse that those global-warmist scaremongers.

[mishkin]

"Merkel Warns That Two-Thirds of Germans Could Become Infected".

Do you know anything about a vaccine? Because my parents are elderly and this is no longer funny.

[conon394]

"Merkel Warns That Two-Thirds of Germans Could Become Infected".

Do you know anything about a vaccine? Because my parents are elderly and this is no longer funny.

I have not seen anything working on the anti virus treatment side - I understand China threw everything at the wall and got no stick. Vaccine everything is stage 1 at best. No matter how accelerated you are looking almost two years. For example the biotech working with the United States Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority is just now doing human safety tests
not any actual test of if it works on healthy people (re young probably male people college students who need money). Technically its a SARS vaccine so maybe it would/will work maybe not. There are I think 2 other novel vaccine programs in the US and in Australia but we are talking bleeding edge biotech and nowhere near ready but at least directly targeted.

[mishkin]

. Thanks

[Prodromos]

Two years to develop a vaccine? Well, people aren't going to just sit at home for two years, are they

[conon394]

Two years to develop a vaccine? Well, people aren't going to just sit at home for two years, are they

Science is a process not something you just fix with money no matter how much you have prove out in rats and mice lots of them and most of time that still fails. You have to avoid killing people. And then you can test out if the thing works. And that takes time as well outside of the Gulag or a Nazi concentration camp you cannot give somebody the vaccination and then intentionally expose them so you need a longitudinal study over time. Finally in this case you kinda need to be sure with 3 or more different things now likely being rushed what if one is a flop but to disseminate you make things worse if people now accidentialy act as if safe.

The real problem I think is Italy or rather what Italy shows the even a wealthy region of Europe had its health care system overwhelmed, and the knock on effect of what things got dropped because of that the. The same happened in the Congo. The Ebola outbreak overwhelmed the system and now it has a raging measles epidemic that is killing more people than Ebola because all the resources that would have treated people and done vaccination got sucked into the Ebola fight.

[Stario]

"Merkel Warns That Two-Thirds of Germans Could Become Infected".

Do you know anything about a vaccine? Because my parents are elderly and this is no longer funny.

They just as likely to get infected by strain of Influenza A/B & I hate to tell you- vaccines only work on old strains- so next winters flu A/B & the many strains of common flu will not be covered.
If your parents live(d) a healthy lifestyle their immune system will be best vaccine. If they lifestyle was poor & they have a giant Mhx then they are very vulnerable indeed ...well NOT to any larger extent than catching & dying from complication from the common flu that is.

The other big problem is viruses are always mutating so I don't think any vaccine produced will truly ever be effective.

[Phier]

I'm getting old these days but I feel fantastic and I'm still alive.

Most people I work with, lets say middle class, moderately educated, are starting to make fun of the panic being pushed on us.

Being I work in healthcare seeing dozens of my patients a day, I'm not personally concerned, though to be fair I don't see people for infectious disease.

I'm just trying to guess when the Cruise industry stocks bottom out. I was told earnings are due and I should wait until then.

[conon394]

Most people I work with, lets say middle class, moderately educated, are starting to make fun of the panic being pushed on us.

I feel so much better Phier for your Pollyannaism. You know if people in the US all got flu vaccine and had health insurance so they would get tests and treated with antiviral medication and or a hospital stay the death rate you cited for over 65 would be a lot lower. Have you actually noticed the results from Italy? What exactly do you do in health care? - Billing. Call me back when you can prove a degree and career in virology or epidemiology.

OT but

""When I die, I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like Fidel Castro, not screaming in terror, like his victims.""

Yes unlike all the calm peaceful deaths under Batista

-------------

They just as likely to get infected by strain of Influenza A/B & I hate to tell you- vaccines only work on old strains- so next winters flu A/B & the many strains of common flu will not be covered.
If your parents live(d) a healthy lifestyle their immune system will be best vaccine. If they lifestyle was poor & they have a giant Mhx then they are very vulnerable indeed ...well NOT to any larger extent than catching & dying from complication from the common flu that is.

The other big problem is viruses are always mutating so I don't think any vaccine produced will truly ever be effective.

Well yes as far as I can tell tell its crap shoot right now if we end with an influenza type vaccine that is sort a guessing game or a solid once and boaster solution.But even with the flue - hit or miss - studies show if you are a year over year regular you do better in a bad pick year even over 65. Also of course their are viable anti viral treatments for influenzea

[sumskilz]

I have not seen anything working on the anti virus treatment side - I understand China threw everything at the wall and got no stick.

Chloroquine plus zinc supplementation is something being looked into. Zinc can inhibit SARS-CoV-2's replication, but it needs to get into the cell to work. Chloroquine can facilitate that. If the combination works as theoretically expected, the safety of chloroquine is already known, it's generic, and is relatively easy to manufacture. Looks more promising than anything else I've read about.