Thread: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

  1. #2061
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    90%-95% of deaths have at least one other co-morbidity; I bet it's the cancers, obesity, diabetes, heart disease, COPD, and/or the combination of all the former, etc. that are doing "crapton" of other things.
    You mean the things that they wouldn't die from or wouldn't die from for decades, without Covid. Are you really making the argument that people with diabetes or cancer should just die early so that you can go for a run? Or are you suggesting that the more than half of the population that has an identified complicating factor for Covid should completely self isolate in every way (including receiving food support - food delivery is a risk - remember the McDonald's Fawkner cluster) so that you can go for a run?

    Is running that important to you that you have to deny so many people their freedom so that you can have yours?

    And all of this is weaselly little lies anyway. In Victoria, unless you either have covid, are awaiting test results or are an identified close contact of someone with Covid, you're allowed to leave the house for exercise. Every day. I'm about to do that in 10 minutes. So don't pull that one out on us. You can go for your all important run, while allowing other people do do the same.
    Last edited by antaeus; August 09, 2020 at 11:22 PM. Reason: I haven't actually accused anyone of lying on here till today.
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  2. #2062

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    The problem is that the press likes to inflate Covid19 IFR% by including the 80/90/100+ age groups in the count in order to make the virus scarier that it really is. The reality is if you're under 70yo your % chance of dying from civid19 is insignificant/close to zero.

    Under 70 years of age; Covid IFR% drops to 0.09%,
    https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/53c0dc391be54f5d959ead9131edb771/infection-fatality-rate-covid-19-stockholm-technical-report.pdf

    And this is in a country like Sweden that didn't drive a truck through civil liberties and whereby shops, restaurants, bars, etc. remained open. This proofs the "draconian lock-downs" that the majority implemented is/was a complete waste of time as it makes little difference apart from 'pooping' on civil liberties and ruining the world's economy.

    Reality is only the old and those in nursing homes are dying. We should have instead done a better job in locking-down/restricting access (IE. who goes in and out), to nursing homes to protect their residence.

    With that said the median length of stay in a nursing home before death was 5 months; so most of these deaths would have occurred anyway by the time this year was over. We are basically ruining the economy for the next 10 years; destroying people's livelihoods, and 'pooping' on civil liberties to increase very old persons (the majority of them with comorbidities such as cancer, heart disease, lung disease ect.), life expectancy by around 5 months. :-<
    This is the classic case of "the cure being worse than the disease"...
    It's clear at this point that you're not interested in addressing points raised against you. You're merely parroting the same lies over and over and over and over again. Your point about most deaths occurring at older ages is your deflection to avoid addressing comparison data between influenza and COVID19.
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  3. #2063

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Daily covid death count could be scrapped
    A review will examine reports that officials were "over-exaggerating” the number of deaths from coronavirus.

    The official Covid-19 daily death toll may never be brought back following an investigation into Public Health England's method of counting it, the Telegraph understands.

    The conclusions of the review, which was ordered by Matt Hancock after it emerged officials were "over-exaggerating” deaths from the virus, are expected this week.
    ...
    It came after Oxford University experts revealed a significant proportion of the daily out-of-hospital death toll relates to patients who recovered from the virus weeks or months earlier.

    Under the previous system, anyone who has ever tested positive for the virus in England was automatically counted as a coronavirus death when they died, even if the death was from a car accident.

    By contrast, Scotland and Wales operate a cut-off threshold of 28 days after a positive test, after which a death is not assumed to be virus-related.
    ...
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ould-scrapped/

  4. #2064
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Yeah, we discussed this a few pages back. It's definitely problematic for the reporting of English cases. One thing that the UK just can't afford is poor reporting. The sceptics out there jump all over it in a heartbeat to use it as an excuse to discredit any global response to Covid in a logically fallacious England messed up their numbers = No Covid problem kind of way. Although strangely when it was reported here a few pages back, nobody really jumped all over it. I think that's probably because while poor reporting might account for statistical variations in England, it certainly doesn't account for it in say Mexico, Singapore, or even in Scotland.

    I can see why this situation occurred - the NHS was temporarily stretched and simply didn't have the reporting capacity to be able to be as accurate as they should have been. It's lazy, but this kind of thing tends to happen in an emergency response. Still poor form. But not announcing a death toll at all would send the wrong message - perhaps that might be the point - to give people a false sense of security. It would be better as mentioned, to just reassess the toll based on better reporting processes. Other countries have reassessed their cases when errors have been reported.
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  5. #2065

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    The article refers to Oxfor University but couldn't find their article talking about the discrepancy its pointing at. There is one article from July 14th but it doesn't touch the exact points suggested by the Telegraph.

    Meanwhile, they've pointed at a very interesting graph:

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  6. #2066
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    You mean the things that they wouldn't die from or wouldn't die from for decades, without Covid.
    Most deaths are in nursing homes and/or old people (Sweden's IFR% under 0-69yo as an example is 0.09% - this is less than a bad influenza season); the average life expectancy of a resident in a nursing home from the time of admission is about 5-6months; definitely not decades.
    Again we're prolonging the lives of very old people for 5-6 months at the cost of decades of economic pain from a global economic recession, while also simultaneously driving a truck through civil liberties -for a virus that has a IFR of less than a bad influenza season for those under 70 years of age.

    And all of this is weaselly little lies anyway. In Victoria, unless you either have covid, are awaiting test results or are an identified close contact of someone with Covid, you're allowed to leave the house for exercise. Every day
    Ye, no exercise for self isolating people, also for Melbourne no exercise after 8pm-5am regardless. Melbourne, A curfew will be in place from 8pm this evening. Curfews will be in operation from 8pm to 5am every evening. People are only allowed to leave their house for work and essential health, care or safety reasons.

    You now even need a 'workers permit' to go to work...that is of course if you're working in "permitted industries", if not (and you can't work from home), you're SCREWED!!! AND probably heading to the unemployment queue like the millions of Aussies already there.
    "Employees working in permitted industries who cannot work from home will be required to have a new ‘Worker Permit’ when travelling to and from work.
    From 11:59pm Wednesday 5 August, employers will be required to issue signed permits to their employees to allow them to attend a workplace. "

    In Melbourne, one can even get fined $1652 for feeling hungry and getting food.
    Among those who copped a hefty penalty was a Melbourne man on his way to get a burger.

    Chairman Dan is doing a wonderful job and steering Victoria towards a third-world state.
    Last edited by Stario; August 12, 2020 at 11:48 AM.

  7. #2067
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Most deaths are in nursing homes and/or old people (Sweden's IFR% under 0-69yo as an example is 0.09% - this is less than a bad influenza season);
    That's about the IFR for influenza through all age groups, not only those below 70. The IFR through all age groups of Sars-Cov-2 is over 1% in most countries. You have to compare the 0.2% of influenza to this number. The fatality rates for influenza below age 70 is much, much lower as well. In the US the IFR for Sars-Cov-2 through all age groups is 3.3% and in Sweden it's 6.9%. That's through the roof and can only be interpreted as Sweden's total failure.

    https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid



    Even Sweden's approach was not without lockdown measures for bars and the like, even though they handled it pretty liberally. But there were social distancing recommendations which were generally taken very seriously. In other words, Sweden has practiced social distancing, just in a more liberal way and the result is a much higher fatality rate. What you on the other hand are talking about is throwing social distancing, even voluntary, completely out of the window. You seem to be unaware that without the lockdown measures, up to 80% of any given country's population would get infected and it is this people count you'd had to apply the IFR to in order to obtain the body count. In the case of the US this would be in the millions, maybe over 20 million without any measures at all.

    Lastly, if you scroll this page down to the provisional death counts table, you can see that the number of covid-19 deaths can easily comprise over 25% of the total number of deaths, such as in the age group 65-74 of April 18. Or 220 covid-19-deaths over 1500 deaths in total in the age group 35-44 from April 11.
    Last edited by swabian; August 12, 2020 at 12:31 PM.

  8. #2068

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Most deaths are in nursing homes and/or old people (Sweden's IFR% under 0-69yo as an example is 0.09% - this is less than a bad influenza season); the average life expectancy of a resident in a nursing home from the time of admission is about 5-6months; definitely not decades.
    Again we're prolonging the lives of very old people for 5-6 months at the cost of decades of economic pain from a global economic recession, while also simultaneously driving a truck through civil liberties -for a virus that has a IFR of less than a bad influenza season for those under 70 years of age.
    This use of statistics to lie. You're saying how under the age of 70 deaths due to COVID19 is so low, yet, you're comparing it to influenza death rate based on all ages. Meanwhile, similarly, deaths due to influenza of people over the age of 65 account for over 80% of all deaths in USA. I have also established a while ago that the infection fatality rate of COVID19 is not comparable to that of influenza. You're simply continuing to misled people by arguing as if they are. You were, of course, unable to address the data provided to you at that time.

    Your source that you linked earlier on how long people stay in care homes was quite faulty. It was looking at old data with old medicine. Precisely between 1992 and 2006. Meanwhile, the median length for 2004 was 463 days, as in more than 15 months, not 5 months. This number was 21 months in a study from 2009. So, clearly, the length of stay was getting longer and longer as medicine got better. Another example of your misleading arguments through use of statistics.
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  9. #2069
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    As an interesting aside...

    It turns out that Dr Tegnell was openly speculating about the benefits of leaving schools open purposely to encourage kids contracting the disease, all the while publicly stating that he didn't believe children to be a strong vector of the disease.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr Anders Tegnell
    One might speak for keeping schools open in order to reach herd immunity more quickly...
    Original article: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...s-open-spread/
    Syndicated around the paywall: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ty-emails-show

    Of course, comments taken out of context mean nothing. It's just interesting to note that public statements often differ greatly to conversations behind the scene.
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  10. #2070
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Very encouraging. Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...888v1.full.pdf
    SUMMARY

    The authors characterized cellular and humoral immunity in a cohort of 203 patients with acute moderate or severe COVID-19, convalescent phase after asymptomatic/mild or severe COVID-19, and healthy volunteers from Sweden. T cells were shown to display an activated/cycling phenotype, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8 T cell populations were skewed toward an early differentiated memory phenotype. SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells acquired an early differentiated memory phenotype with higher proliferation and polyfunctionality in the convalescent phase. SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were also shown to generate anamnestic responses to cognate antigens in the convalescent phase. Memory T cell responses were detected in exposed healthy individuals lacking detectable circulating antibodies, indicating that seroprevalence alone could underestimate population immunity.

    ...Of note, we detected cross-reactive T cell responses against spike or membrane in 28% of the unexposed healthy blood donors, consistent with a high degree of preexisting immune responses potentially induced by other coronaviruses (Braun et al., 2020; Grifoni et al., 2020; Le Bert et al., 2020).

    Although we detected generally broader and stronger T cell responses in seronegative convalescent and exposed individuals compared to unexposed donors, it remains possible that a fraction of the anamnestic SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell response was initially induced by seasonal coronaviruses (Mateus et al., 2020). The biological relevance of cross-reactive T cell responses remains unclear. However, it is tempting to speculate that such responses may provide at least partial protection against SARS-CoV-2, and different disease severity, given that pre-existing T cell immunity has been associated with beneficial outcomes after challenge with the pandemic influenza virus strain H1N1 (Sridhar et al., 2013; Wilkinson et al., 2012).

    Collectively, our data provide a functional and phenotypic map of SARS-CoV-2- specific T cell immunity across the full spectrum of exposure, infection, and disease. The observation that many individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19, after SARS-CoV-2 exposure or infection, generated highly durable and functionally replete memory T cell responses, not uncommonly in the absence of detectable humoral responses, further suggests that natural exposure or infection could prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19.
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  11. #2071
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    @Ludicus,

    A number of studies now suggest that herd immunity to COVID-19 may be much lower than the standard 60-80% figure frequently quoted. Possibly due to the presence of protective "T cells" gained from earlier exposure to other types of coronaviruses.
    This could explain why Sweden's death rate declined even as their cases increased.
    As the whole world went mad, few places like Sweden held their ground and didn't bow to political pressure, and most importantly didn't drive a truck through civil liberties.
    It's now looking more and more like Sweden got it right -herd immunity has possibly been reached (but too early to know for sure), as Sweden records single digit deaths for nearly a month with 0 deaths last Friday.
    Last edited by Stario; August 17, 2020 at 08:31 AM.

  12. #2072

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Coronavirus: Sweden's Tegnell admits too many died
    Now he has told Swedish public radio: "If we were to encounter the same disease again, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done."

    When asked if too many people had died too soon, Dr Tegnell said, "Yes, absolutely."
    Although there was no lockdown, Sweden relied on voluntary social distancing, banning gatherings of more than 50 people and halting visits to elderly care homes.

    Non-essential travel is still not recommended under national guidelines, but journeys of up to two hours are allowed to see relatives or close friends as long as they do not involve visits to local shops and mixing with other residents.
    Sweden's former state epidemiologist Annika Linde believes Sweden got its response wrong and should have focused on three things:
    • An early lockdown
    • Greater protection of care homes
    • Intensive testing and contact tracing in areas of outbreaks


    Critics Urge Sweden to Reboot Its Virus Strategy
    “When we go sort of into the second phase, the rapid finding of what could be a potential cluster is going to be crucial,” Tegnell said in an interview with The Local.

    Even though the number of deaths in Sweden has dropped to an average of about two per day from a peak of almost 100 in mid-April, health experts fear what may happen when vacationers return to work and schools reopen, especially after an uptick of infections among people in their twenties.

    “There are some warning signs that we may be heading in the wrong direction, especially when it comes to the rather large increase we are seeing among young adults,” Tegnell told reporters in Stockholm earlier this week.
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  13. #2073
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    I agree one fault with Sweden's strategy was that Sweden should have protected it's nursing homes much better -as that's where the majority of deaths occurred/are occurring. Strict procedures should've been imposed -particularly in regards to whom can/cannot enters the nursing homes IE. should've locked them down entirely so no one except staff/essential workers enter, and this after rigorous screening of all staff etc.

    With that said the median length of stay in nursing homes before death was five months. So we are only prolonging the lives of these nursing home residents for five months. Either way, 5 months of prolonging the lives of really old people is not worth the loss of civil liberties & economic pain and social pain a recession will bring for the next decade and the many deaths to young people as a result (IE suicides, mental health etc).
    Last edited by Stario; August 17, 2020 at 09:37 AM.

  14. #2074

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    I agree one fault with Sweden's strategy was that Sweden should have protected it's nursing homes much better -as that's where the majority of deaths occurred/are occurring. Strict procedures should've been imposed -particularly in regards to whom can/cannot enters the nursing homes IE. should've locked them down entirely so no one except staff/essential workers enter, and this after rigorous screening of all staff etc.
    So, you want Sweden to drive a truck through civil liberties?


    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    With that said the median length of stay in nursing homes before death was five months. So we are only prolonging the lives of these nursing home residents for five months. Either way, 5 months of prolonging the lives of really old people is not worth the loss of civil liberties & economic pain and social pain a recession will bring for the next decade and the many deaths to young people as a result (IE suicides, mental health etc).
    That's a filthy lie. It has been addressed before. You were unable to respond to it. Yet, you're repeating it. Why are you lying blatantly Stario?
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  15. #2075
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    So, you want Sweden to drive a truck through civil liberties?
    No, that's the point, business, bars, restaurants & school would remain open, and there would be no curfews etc (here Sweden made the right choice).
    With that said it probably would've made too much of a difference even if Sweden imposed lock-downs on nursing homes as all it would ultimately do is prolong the median life expectancy of really old nursing home resident by 5 months vs decades of economic & social hardship, increased mental health, increased suicide rates that would ultimately lead to many more deaths and of mostly young people. Again I think when you look at the alternative Sweden got it mostly right.


    That's a filthy lie. It has been addressed before. You were unable to respond to it. Yet, you're repeating it. Why are you lying blatantly Stario?
    Again saying things like "That's a filthy lie..." and "It has been addressed before..." does NOT disprove the source here: median length of stay in nursing homes before death was five months
    Last edited by Stario; August 17, 2020 at 10:18 AM.

  16. #2076

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    No, that's the point, business, bars, restaurants & school would remain open, and there would be no curfews etc (here Sweden made the right choice).
    With that said it probably would've made too much of a difference even if Sweden imposed lock-downs on nursing homes as all it would ultimately do is prolong the median life expectancy of really old nursing home resident by 5 months vs decades of economic & social hardship, increased mental health, increased suicide rates that would ultimately lead to many more deaths and of mostly young people. Again I think when you look at the alternative Sweden got it mostly right.
    Nope. Facts say otherwise. You're merely playing with words. When others do it its running a truck through civil liberties. When they should do it the way you like it's just a sensible measure.


    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Again saying things like "That's a filthy lie..." and "It has been addressed before..." does NOT disprove the source here: median length of stay in nursing homes before death was five months
    It is a stupendously filthy lie though. I can call it out as such very easily since I disproved it on the very same page. You're lying. You're lying about facts we can easily google.
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  17. #2077
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Very encouraging. Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...888v1.full.pdf
    And now,splendid news!
    This is the first evidence of the protective effect of having antibodies on protection from reinfection,
    Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection ... - medRxiv
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  18. #2078
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    I wonder if I can get your input on something: the role of face masks in all of this. What do we make of it?

    First a little summary of how the pandemic has evolved where I live: the Netherlands.

    The following graph shows the number of Covid19 patients over time



    As you can see, at the height of the curve, around 1300 new patients were reported every day. By the start of July, the number had dropped to around 50 per day. A 26x reduction.

    What did the Netherlands do in terms of measures to bring the curve down? The basic package for much of this time included just a few simple rules:

    - wash hands often
    - keep distance of 1.5m
    - work from home if you can
    - stay at home if you show Covid19 symptoms
    - if one family member is infected, the entire family stays home
    - no unnecessary travel
    - closure of cafes and restaurants, hairdressers and other 'contact profession' businesses.

    This was dubbed an 'intelligent lock-down'.

    Face masks were only required on public transport in addition to restrictions on the occupancy to allow for social distancing.
    Unlike is the case in some east asian countries, Dutch people are disinclined to wear face masks on their own initiative.

    Conclusion: it is beyond any reasonable doubt that face masks played no part in bringing Covid19 under control. The fact that the measures were effective is makes it very likely that by and large the underlaying assumptions were correct: keep your distance from sick people.

    Lately, infection rates have increased. Something which can attributed to relaxing of certain measures, but also the widely visible drop in compliance with the aforementioned rules.

    So, as the head of the Dutch NiH remarked slightly exasperatedly to questions asked by PM's: why, if you have a set of measures that has proven effective, would you bother with a highly invasive measure of very dubious efficacy (remember the Norwegian study estimating that to prevent a single infection 200000 people would have to wear masks for a week)? The 'strongest' arguments for face masks seem to be 'they might work a little, might as well use them' to 'other countries are doing it, so there must be a reason for it'.

    So, I wonder, what do you all think? Can you name places, for instance, where a full on outbreak like in the Netherlands was brought under control after use of facemasks was made mandatory? If not, what is the face mask controversy all about? Wishful thinking? Mis-attributing to face masks the effect of early containment with track and trace in some east Asian countries? An excuse to ditch social distancing for the sake of the economy? A political statement in opposition to 'covid deniers' ?
    Last edited by Muizer; August 17, 2020 at 05:46 PM.
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  19. #2079
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post
    Face masks were only required on public transport.... Conclusion: it is beyond any reasonable doubt that face masks played no part in bringing Covid19 under control.
    But there appears to be a fundamental contradiction here...it's also a cultural thing, the respect for others, I agree. (1)
    Anyway, masks should be used in public crowded spaces.Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of

    You should always wear a mask and keep social distancing,in these circumstances.
    ---
    Netherlands- Population: 17,139,788

    Total deaths 6,172
    Total cases/1 million pop: 3,505
    Deaths one million pop: 360
    Daily new cases: 482
    ------
    Japan- Population : 126,425,317
    Total deaths: 1,088
    Total cases / 1 M pop: 440
    Deaths one million pop: 9
    Daily new cases:1137

    So, why is Japan special? Masks. + campaign warning people to avoid the three cs +stay at home. The history behind Japan's love of face masks

    ---
    (1) respect for others: this is the reason why... riot police enforce Marseille mask

    Edit.
    It's not difficult to understand the reason why face coverings are expressly required for employees of restaurants, shops, etc. And how to talk to those who aren't social distancing? it's not an easy task. Young and not so young people, in a significant proportion of cases, are not social distancing.

    The Netherlands tightens coronavirus measures as Dutch fail to observe social distancing
    The Netherlands has observed recent outbreaks in the number of new coronavirus cases, as many people do not respect social distancing and barrier measures
    Last edited by Ludicus; August 17, 2020 at 06:58 PM.
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  20. #2080
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    But there appears to be a fundamental contradiction here


    Public transport (blue line) plummeted to near 0 occupancy once people were advised to travel as little as possible (fyi. the orange line is distance on foot, the red line distance by bike). This is the context in which face masks were introduced. Highly unlikely that this contributed much to quelling the outbreak. .

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    ...it's also a cultural thing, the respect for others, I agree. (1)
    Anyway, masks should be used in public crowded spaces.Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of
    I'm no virologist, but this study was one of many cited by the norwegian study that ended up concluding that wearing of face masks was not recommended for the general public. A lot seems to boil down to the huge uncertainties in extrapolating controlled experiments to real life situations.


    ---
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Netherlands- Population: 17,139,788

    Total deaths 6,172
    Total cases/1 million pop: 3,505
    Deaths one million pop: 360
    Daily new cases: 482
    ------
    Japan- Population : 126,425,317
    Total deaths: 1,088
    Total cases / 1 M pop: 440
    Deaths one million pop: 9
    Daily new cases:1137

    So, why is Japan special? Masks. + campaign warning people to avoid the three cs +stay at home. The history behind Japan's love of face masks
    You forget by far the biggest difference: response time. You'd have to come up with countries with the same response time and the same measures except a difference in face mask policy to prove anything.

    In the mean time we know social distancing is key. So why the overblown emphasis on face masks in politics and media?
    Last edited by Muizer; August 17, 2020 at 07:47 PM.
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