Thread: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

  1. #2941

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    You two are using different criteria to argue opposing claims which is rather futile. The only logical comparison for Sweden is to compare it to other Scandinavian countries that share a similar culture and development level. Deaths per million people:


    1. Sweden - 136.4
    2. Denmark - 42.8
    3. Finland - 16.6
    4. Norway - 14.1


    These numbers are quite straight forward.
    Ludicus already pointed this out. You can make up any reason you want for cherry picking countries to fit a narrative. I stick with the representative samples used in the empirical research I’ve referenced. Just like Galileo.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  2. #2942
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    No, i think POV has the right idea. You've got to compare it to other Scandinavian countries with similar development and population density, which would be Norway and Finland. Admittedly, in the worldwide comparison Sweden didn't do too shabby, but they obviously could have avoided much more deaths. They simply demonstrated a relatively high level of personal discipline, which is why the fatality rates weren't outright 'southern European' despite of their lax handling of the pandemic. But during the earlier phase this looked quite differently, I can remember. They were running into serious capacity problems at some point. Overall the critique is absolutely justified.

  3. #2943

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian View Post
    No, i think POV has the right idea. You've got to compare it to other Scandinavian countries with similar development and population density, which would be Norway and Finland. Admittedly, in the worldwide comparison Sweden didn't do too shabby, but they obviously could have avoided much more deaths. They simply demonstrated a relatively high level of personal discipline, which is why the fatality rates weren't outright 'southern European' despite of their lax handling of the pandemic. But during the earlier phase this looked quite differently, I can remember. They were running into serious capacity problems at some point. Overall the critique is absolutely justified.
    Comparing countries with similar levels of development and population wouldn’t justify limiting a sample that includes Sweden to only Denmark, Norway and Finland. The HDI rating of Nordic countries is similar to any other major western European country. By population density, Sweden has a death rate similar to comparable countries like Lithuania or Latvia. Excluding much of Europe from comparison with Sweden amounts to little more than a rhetorical device, regardless of any criticisms one might have of certain policies. You’re correct to note Sweden’s performance was quite average among European countries.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; May 05, 2021 at 11:24 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  4. #2944
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    Comparing countries with similar levels of development and population wouldn’t justify limiting a sample that includes Sweden to only Denmark, Norway and Finland. The HDI rating of Nordic countries is similar to any other major western European country. By population density, Sweden has a death rate similar to comparable countries like Lithuania or Latvia. Excluding much of Europe from comparison with Sweden amounts to little more than a rhetorical device, regardless of any criticisms one might have of certain policies. You’re correct to note Sweden’s performance was quite average among European countries.
    Mmh, the point you're arguing is that a formal, enforced lockdown in Sweden wouldn't have made much of a difference, but you fail to consider the fact that Sweden did maintain a quasi-lockdown based on voluntary distancing, which did turn out relatively well, but still not satisfactorily.

    To summarize, the counter argument to your narrative at this point in the thread is that the numbers strongly suggest an officially enforced lockdown would have had a much more desirable outcome. I definitely agree with POVG, because Sweden's population density (about 50% less than the European average) and degree of urbanization is more distinctly Scandinavian rather than European.

    I think the point remains that an enforced lockdown, as opposed to a voluntary one, would have been better, regardless of any comparison based analysis. At any rate, the final outcome appears to be much less hazardous than it threatened to become months ago, as expected by some users and myself in the past IIT. So I'm inclined to offer a partial concession on my behalf, yes.
    Last edited by swabian; May 06, 2021 at 12:22 AM.

  5. #2945
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian View Post
    I think the point remains that an enforced lockdown, as opposed to a voluntary one, would have been better, regardless of any comparison based analysis.
    You're not going to win an argument with Legio by providing a generalised subjective as your benchmark.

    If I'm prepared to accept a higher death rate, sickness rate etc in order to live a more normal life than say the New Zealanders did at the height of their epidemic, then the Swedes have done things better. On the other hand, if I am happy to give away a few more liberties for a shorter epidemic and an earlier economic recovery, then the New Zealanders have done things better. The idea of better is a dangerous metric to use.

    And the assertion that an enforced lockdown anywhere would or wouldn't have made much difference is also a terrible one to make. A lockdown like New Zealand's with closed borders, strict movement restrictions and virtual home detention would certainly have stymied any outbreak in the world - But in New Zealand it was bought-into and followed widely by a trusting public. That sort of response wasn't possible in less trusting or less thoroughly governed countries. Any lockdown that is less than the extreme ones we saw in places like New Zealand potentially carries the risk of extending the outbreak, and encouraging virus mutation by not completely wiping it out - in that scenario it is probably better to rely more on other less invasive things that are known to work - masks, distancing etc, rather than risking a level of social unrest that might render a lockdown pointless anyway (as we've seen over and again in jurisdictions where the population hasn't been prepared to accept loss of liberty, or is too poor, or too corrupt, or has a culture of distrust of government etc)

    I'm certainly happy that I live in a country that had a sharp short lockdown, and has returned my life to near normal. I get to go to concerts, sports events, go on holiday, work in my office etc etc. But to get this I had to spend 3 months under curfew that had a crippling economic effect on businesses. There is validity to perspectives that argue for other means of action - although most of the other successful approaches also depend on some level of civil liberty crackdown that would also be unfeasible for some countries, and success is again a subjective.

    Ultimately, again and again, a successful approach isn't about the rules, it's about the communication and buy-in of the populace. There isn't one better response. There are a variety of tools that governments have - but they must be trusted, communicated, understood and followed - if this isn't possible, then there is some justification for leaning on voluntary measures.
    Last edited by antaeus; May 06, 2021 at 01:47 AM.
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  6. #2946

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian
    Mmh, the point you're arguing is that a formal, enforced lockdown in Sweden wouldn't have made much of a difference, but you fail to consider the fact that Sweden did maintain a quasi-lockdown based on voluntary distancing, which did turn out relatively well, but still not satisfactorily.
    I’m not arguing anything in particular with regards to Sweden. The latter was an anecdote raised by my interlocutor as a strawman to avoid things like this:
    The most restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID-19 are mandatory stay-at-home and business closures. Given the consequences of these policies, it is important to assess their effects. We evaluate the effects on epidemic case growth of more restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs), above and beyond those of less-restrictive NPIs (lrNPIs).

    While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less-restrictive interventions.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33400268/
    I understand your intuition on the subject given most countries used fairly restrictive lockdown measures either locally or nationally, and I agree Sweden is not the unrestricted free for all it has been made out to be by detractors and advocates alike. My argument isn’t that Sweden did or didn’t do something right or wrong. It’s that lockdowns had no significant impact on critical cases or mortality, and the costs of more restrictive mesures were not adequately considered when policymakers relied on what turned out to be erroneous projections of potential death rates to justify those measures.

    The measures that have shown results, including masks and individual social distancing reflective of changes in personal behavior, were shown to exist independently of lockdown orders, suggesting the drawbacks of more restrictive NPIs could have been avoided without compromising results. The ex post scramble to portray lockdowns as medically effective and necessary during the course of the pandemic has more to do with politicians’ efforts to justify their panicked reaction to Covid, cover their behinds and protect their careers than it does with following scientific evidence.

    We study the health, behavioral, and economic effects of one of the most politically controversial policies in recent memory, shelter-in-place orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous studies have claimed that shelter-in-place orders saved thousands of lives, but we reassess these analyses and show that they are not reliable. We find that shelter-in-place orders had no detectable health benefits, only modest effects on behavior, and small but adverse effects on the economy. To be clear, our study should not be interpreted as evidence that social distancing behaviors are not effective. Many people had already changed their behaviors before the introduction of shelter-in-place orders, and shelter-in-place orders appear to have been ineffective precisely because they did not meaningfully alter social distancing behavior.

    We estimate the effects of shelter-in-place (SIP) orders during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We do not find detectable effects of these policies on disease spread or deaths...... Furthermore, our study focuses on the early months of the pandemic, and the effectiveness of SIP orders could change over time. However, the previously presented evidence on the effectiveness of SIP orders appears to be misleading, and there is currently no compelling evidence to suggest that SIP policies saved a large number of lives or significantly mitigated the spread of COVID-19. However, this does not mean that voluntary social distancing—SIP practice as distinct from policy—was ineffective.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2019706118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  7. #2947

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    1. If the Politburo thought they could have gotten away with scorched earth, Wuhan would have been burned to the ground.

    2. So the alternative is to immediately isolate any outbreak, regardless of human cost.

    3. There are two parts to a successful minimization of pandemics, a government that knows what it's doing, and an electorate that has good cause to believe in it and follow basic precautions.
    Eats, shoots, and leaves.

  8. #2948

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    Ludicus already pointed this out. You can make up any reason you want for cherry picking countries to fit a narrative. I stick with the representative samples used in the empirical research I’ve referenced. Just like Galileo.
    Just like Galileo didn't look at Proxima Centauri but reached his conclusion based on his observations on our solar system, I'm looking at Scandinavian countries. If you consider looking at closely related countries as cherry picking there isn't much to say. It's quite self observatory.
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  9. #2949
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    ^This is wondrous.

    In coherent news, confirmation that hair loss is a sign of weakness or a lack of God’s favor has been confirmed.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...udy-warns.html

  10. #2950

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Just like Galileo didn't look at Proxima Centauri but reached his conclusion based on his observations on our solar system, I'm looking at Scandinavian countries. If you consider looking at closely related countries as cherry picking there isn't much to say. It's quite self observatory.
    Gainsaying is not an argument. The selection bias doesn’t necessarily arise from the inclusion of Scandinavian countries, but from exclusion. Comparisons with neighboring countries doesn’t justify excluding others to work backwards from a conclusion already made from the outset. That would be like arguing that the Earth must be the center of the universe because we are God’s special creation. As discussed earlier in the context of the Flaxman lockdown study:
    What’s odd is that Flaxman et al, determining the efficacy of lockdowns vs a few other categories of NPIs, don’t appear to address the fact that their own model predicts Sweden’s NPIs reduce Rt as much as other lockdown countries, including significant overlap with Denmark and Norway.


    Flaxman’s model is a good example to use here because it’s been referenced dozens of times as evidence in favor of the efficacy of lockdowns to reduce death rates, but its flawed assumptions appear to have led the authors to draw unsupported conclusions.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  11. #2951

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    Gainsaying is not an argument. The selection bias doesn’t necessarily arise from the inclusion of Scandinavian countries, but from exclusion. Comparisons with neighboring countries doesn’t justify excluding others to work backwards from a conclusion already made from the outset. That would be like arguing that the Earth must be the center of the universe because we are God’s special creation. As discussed earlier in the context of the Flaxman lockdown study:

    Flaxman’s model is a good example to use here because it’s been referenced dozens of times as evidence in favor of the efficacy of lockdowns to reduce death rates, but its flawed assumptions appear to have led the authors to draw unsupported conclusions.
    It's very interesting that you are responding to lack of arguments... It simple logic to compare subjects with the most similarities. Without taking into many differences among many different nations of Europe there is little sense in doing direct comparisons.
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  12. #2952

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    It's very interesting that you are responding to lack of arguments... It simple logic to compare subjects with the most similarities. Without taking into many differences among many different nations of Europe there is little sense in doing direct comparisons.
    If there’s “no sense” in making direct comparisons between countries, that doesn’t mean countries are incomparable. It means your argument is inherently anecdotal.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  13. #2953

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    If there’s “no sense” in making direct comparisons between countries, that doesn’t mean countries are incomparable. It means your argument is inherently anecdotal.
    There is no sense in making direct comparison between countries without taking into account the differences. Not sure what part of that is confusing and how pointing that out makes it anecdotal.
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  14. #2954

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    There is no sense in making direct comparison between countries without taking into account the differences. Not sure what part of that is confusing and how pointing that out makes it anecdotal.
    You haven’t given any actual evidence the samples used in the research I cited are flawed, or that the methodology lacked controls for these incomparable “differences” you’ve apparently proven to be statistically significant. You’ve presented an unfalsifiable premise that would logically render any one country incomparable to any other for any reason one might imagine, making any cross country analysis virtually impossible. That’s what makes it anecdotal. Nothing confusing about it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  15. #2955
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    There is no sense in making direct comparison between countries without taking into account the differences. Not sure what part of that is confusing and how pointing that out makes it anecdotal.
    I feel like youre right. The OED defnes the meaning of anecdotal as:

    Of evidence (usually medical or scientific): consisting of, or based on, reports of individual cases rather than systematic research or analysis; (also) involving such evidence.

    Your comparison of adjacent nations with similar geography, language, culture and social norms would seem to be based on a systematic approach, more so than (say) selecting a grab bag of disparate nations.

    Just off topic a little:

    If a poster refuses to address reasonable questions, misrepresents what you've posted or gives false definitions of terms then they are likely trolling rather than arguing in good faith. Further if they endlessly recycle certain stock responses (wall of text, derailing accusations, deliberate misrepresentation) its possible they are a bot (or just want to be a bot which amounts to the same thing). I find ignoring them the best policy, as debate is a complete waste of time.

    If you can't use the ignore button for some reason there's nothing to stop you from ignoring the poster yourself. You just have to keep track of name changes (pretty easy of course, the boring and repetitive style and the absence of any merit in the posts gives them away quickly).

    My own view is its worthwhile debating alternate viewpoints (I do it to reveal to myself the depths of my own ignorance, and I try to remember to thank posters as they demolish my fragile arguments because they are educating me), but a rhetorical toilet swirl of timewasting nonsense does not merit a response.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  16. #2956
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Some people talk too much, but say too little.
    ----
    That's what I have been saying all along, The Swedish COVID-19 strategy revisited - The Lancet
    To continue on the same trajectory in the face of current trends, without timely action by agency and government leadership, raises concerns about governance and accountability, and ultimately about fundamental ethics and values.
    Take a look, the cartoon is a bit harsh but it was well deserved. Narcissistic Authoritarianism Failed Sweden and Killed People

    ...They quoted a poll analyst saying, “Confidence is in a downward spiral.” Tegnell, ever the Narcissists, insists no one can know if he succeeded or failed
    Add some American libertarians to the list.

    Tegnell in May:
    In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low”.
    "But Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?”




    Another pearl of wisdom, quoted from the Financial Times

    Mr. Tegnell argued that "Nothing [to do with lockdowns] had a scientific basis”, particularly decisions to close schools, because there was no evidence that children were a major cause of transmission.
    He believes European leaders felt they needed to copy China’s approach, the first country to lock down because of the disease.
    Arrogant idiot.
    Last edited by Ludicus; May 06, 2021 at 04:44 PM.
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  17. #2957

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops
    Your comparison of adjacent nations with similar geography, language, culture and social norms would seem to be based on a systematic approach, more so than (say) selecting a grab bag of disparate nations.
    The selection of adjacent countries with similar language, culture, and customs could be systematic in a general sense, sure. Shame this is a government policy discussion, not anthropology. Exclusive selection of certain countries rather than systematic research on samples of countries along policy lines would be anecdotal according to the OED. Thanks for the clarification.

    The samples in the research I’ve cited could be considered “random grab bags” by the uninformed, but that’s a feature, not a bug:
    A representative sample is a subset of a population that seeks to accurately reflect the characteristics of the larger group.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r...ive-sample.asp
    Exclusive selection of 2-3 Nordic countries is unlikely to be representative of the population of countries with similar NPIs, especially in an analysis of the results of those NPIs.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops
    I find ignoring them the best policy, as debate is a complete waste of time.
    I agree, especially if a poster declines to name names in order to hide behind an ingenious disguise, or is still seething months after finding out Google Dictionary, provided by Oxford Languages, is in fact a true Scotsman after all. Further if they endlessly call upon others to block someone on social media in an eternal, one-man quest for vengeance (passive aggressive references, furious coping, general hilarity), it’s possible they are an antagonist in a made for TV teen drama (or just want to be an antagonist in a made for TV teen drama, which amounts to the same thing).

    If you don’t want to use the ignore button for some reason, that’s ok, but a poster may never stop begging you to anyway (seething rage and the absence of any rebuttal in the posts gives him/her/zher/it/them away quickly).

    My own view is its worthwhile debating alternate viewpoints (I do it to reveal to myself the depths of my own ignorance, and I try to remember to thank posters as they demolish my fragile arguments because they are educating me), but a rhetorical toilet swirl of timewasting nonsense does not merit a response, even though a poster may do it anyway while demanding everyone else stop in the form of cringe-inducing diatribes.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; May 06, 2021 at 06:00 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  18. #2958
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    I know you are but what am I.

    A classic. Loved Pee Wee.

    New Israel and Tennessee studies show Pfizer just crushes your chances of covid. If we could skip whether lockdowns work or not and just get everyone vaccinated we would be set.

    Biden supporting waiving IP for vaccines is huge. A US President not shilling for big Pharma seems almost impossible to believe.

  19. #2959
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    Sweden below most countries in western Europe.
    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    to repeat... below most countries in western Europe
    Just for the sake of truth: False.
    Western Europe - UNHCR

    Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Holy See Iceland, Ireland, Italy ,Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway Portugal, San Marino, Spain ,Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom
    --
    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    What’s odd is that Flaxman et al, determiningthe efficacy of lockdowns vs a few other categories of NPIs, don’t appear toaddress the fact that their own model predicts Sweden’s NPIs reduce Rt as muchas other lockdown countries, including significant overlap with Denmark andNorway
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


    January 13, 2021 Tracking R of COVID-19: A new real-time estimation using the the Kalman filter
    lockdowns reinforce attitudes towards disease-awareness and self-isolation, helping to ensure lower values of in the long run.
    Edit,
    A potential concern is that countries may introduce NPIs and simultaneously increase the number of tests for COVID-19 that they perform... With testing controls, most coefficients are no longer statistically significant.
    In Sweden,they don’t test asymptomatics. Without testing there is no reliable data.
    I quote,
    Number of coronavirus tests per capita in the Nordics as of December 2020
    As of December 15, 2020, Denmark had the highest test rate for the coronavirus (COVID-19) among the Nordic countries. Around 1,484 tests per thousand people were performed in the country. Iceland followed with 662 tests per thousand people. Nonetheless, figures for Sweden were not available.
    Last edited by Ludicus; May 06, 2021 at 09:20 PM.
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  20. #2960

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus
    Just for the sake of truth: False.
    Just for the sake of truth: False. Again, you really should consider reading your posts before submitting.

    Cyprus is not in Europe



    Andorra, Liechtenstein, Malta, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City are microstates

    Finland is east of most of eastern Europe, bordering Russia. Not much logic including that one in a list of western European countries.

    If Greece is western Europe, let’s not forget countries to the north and west of there:

    Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia, Croatia, Czech Republic, North Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland

    Higher death rate than Sweden:

    Belgium
    France
    Italy
    UK
    Spain
    Portugal
    Montenegro
    Slovenia
    Czech Republic
    Bosnia
    Croatia
    North Macedonia
    Hungary
    Slovakia
    Poland
    15

    Lower:
    Austria
    Denmark
    Norway
    Germany
    Netherlands
    Switzerland
    Ireland
    Iceland
    Albania
    Luxembourg
    Greece
    Serbia
    12

    Did I miss any?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus
    January 13, 2021 Tracking R of COVID-19: A new real-time estimation using the the Kalman filter

    We develop a new method for estimating the effective reproduction number of an infectious disease () and apply it to track the dynamics of COVID-19
    From the study:
    Column (1) of Table 2 provides estimated effects of NPIs when only country fixed effects are included. We observe a strong negative effect of lockdowns, social distancing, and measures of self isolation. Taken at face value, the estimates suggest that lockdowns reduce by 65%. School closures are not statistically significant in this specification. These regressions as well the point estimates are similar to the statistical analysis performed by Flaxman et al [25].

    The regression with country fixed effects only, however, is likely misspecified. Implicitly, such a specification assumes that the only reason can fall is because of introduction of NPIs. However, would likely trend downwards even in the absence of any public policy interventions. First, tends to fall during an epidemic as the number of susceptibles is depleted. Second, people may adjust their behavior even in the absence of any policy measures. Failing to control for the dynamics of in the absence of NPIs therefore likely leads to an over-estimation of the effects of NPIs.

    In our empirical application, we find that lockdowns, measures of self-isolation, and social distancing all have statistically significant effects on reducing of COVID-19. However, we also demonstrate the importance of accounting for voluntary changes in behavior. In particular, most of the decline in mobility in our sample took place before lockdowns were introduced. This finding suggests that people respond to the risk of contracting the virus by changing their mobility patterns and reducing social interactions. Failing to account for such voluntary changes in behavior yields estimated effects of NPIs that are arguably too large.

    Given that even our best estimates may still be biased, it is important to interpret these results cautiously.
    The authors literally acknowledge their model is similar to Flaxman’s and has the same methodological flaws I outlined. Again, you should consider reading before posting. In any case, thank you for providing more evidence independently corroborating the other study you ignored:
    We study the health, behavioral, and economic effects of one of the most politically controversial policies in recent memory, shelter-in-place orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous studies have claimed that shelter-in-place orders saved thousands of lives, but we reassess these analyses and show that they are not reliable. We find that shelter-in-place orders had no detectable health benefits, only modest effects on behavior, and small but adverse effects on the economy. To be clear, our study should not be interpreted as evidence that social distancing behaviors are not effective. Many people had already changed their behaviors before the introduction of shelter-in-place orders, and shelter-in-place orders appear to have been ineffective precisely because they did not meaningfully alter social distancing behavior.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2019706118
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus
    In Sweden,they don’t test asymptomatics. Without testing there is no reliable data.
    If there’s no reliable data, why have you referenced that data numerous times, from case growth to death rates and more? Perhaps you forgot what your argument is?
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; May 06, 2021 at 09:49 PM. Reason: Updated
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

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