Thread: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

  1. #2521

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Some countries had a better experience with lockdowns than others. The evidence so far indicates the lack of relative effectiveness and disproportionate cost outweigh the benefits in every international sample I’ve seen.
    The problem is the variety of factors which need to be controlled for in order to create a level playing field. Population density, average age, prevalence of preexisting conditions (esp. obesity), climate and volume of travel (both domestic and international) are just some of the factors which affect the threat posed by C-19. Without checking, I'm reasonably confident that areas like London and New York City, for instance, are at significantly greater risk than Melbourne (largest city in Victoria) according to those variables.



  2. #2522
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Some countries had a better experience with lockdowns than others. The evidence so far indicates the lack of relative effectiveness and disproportionate cost outweigh the benefits in every international sample I’ve seen.
    Meh. I've responded to this type of post a few dozen times in this thread already. You're not contributing anything new.

    Certainly lockdowns aren't the only good approach, but they are one good approach and in certain circumstances, the best approach when done right and possibly the worst approach when done wrong. Come back in a year when we have enough hindsight to be able to determine whether any approach worked more effectively than another.

    Until then I'll subjectively favour the approach that has allowed me to go to a sports stadium packed with fans, without risk of catching Covid, you can subjectively be grumpy about the approach that has led to you sitting in your bedroom cherry picking studies or what ever you do in your poorly communicated, poorly actioned lockdown.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MARENOSTRUM

  3. #2523

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cope View Post
    The problem is the variety of factors which need to be controlled for in order to create a level playing field. Population density, average age, prevalence of preexisting conditions (esp. obesity), climate and volume of travel (both domestic and international) are just some of the factors which affect the threat posed by C-19. Without checking, I'm reasonably confident that areas like London and New York City, for instance, are at significantly greater risk than Melbourne (largest city in Victoria) according to those variables.
    Yes, it will be a while before the additional benefit of hindsight becomes available. One interesting study I came across found a correlation between metropolitan population specifically, rather than mere density, and infection risk.
    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    Meh. I've responded to this type of post a few dozen times in this thread already. You're not contributing anything new.

    Certainly lockdowns aren't the only good approach, but they are one good approach and in certain circumstances, the best approach when done right and possibly the worst approach when done wrong. Come back in a year when we have enough hindsight to be able to determine whether any approach worked more effectively than another.

    Until then I'll subjectively favour the approach that has allowed me to go to a sports stadium packed with fans, without risk of catching Covid, you can subjectively be grumpy about the approach that has led to you sitting in your bedroom cherry picking studies or what ever you do in your poorly communicated, poorly actioned lockdown.
    If we’re in the business of presenting new things, I’m afraid you’ll have to do better than repeat the same passive aggressive sophistry that borders on gainsaying the “cherry picked” studies and surveys of representative studies I’ve discussed periodically in this thread. There are numerous studies involving Covid and other viral outbreaks indicating lockdowns are medically one of the least effective at controlling the spread of infection beyond the earliest phase of an outbreak, relative to combinations of things like masks and social distancing.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; January 16, 2021 at 08:56 PM.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  4. #2524
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cope View Post
    The problem is the variety of factors which need to be controlled for in order to create a level playing field. Population density, average age, prevalence of preexisting conditions (esp. obesity), climate and volume of travel (both domestic and international) are just some of the factors which affect the threat posed by C-19. Without checking, I'm reasonably confident that areas like London and New York City, for instance, are at significantly greater risk than Melbourne (largest city in Victoria) according to those variables.
    I agree that there are a lot of variables... but the difference between say Melbourne and London in most of the noted variables, is not nearly as great as the difference between say Wyoming and Melbourne. Wyoming having just over 10% of Melbourne's population, a kabillion times lower population density and scattered infrastructure, but similar or higher rates of Covid transmission to what Melbourne experienced during it's (so far) pandemic height back in July (which were also similar rates to what was experienced at the time in London for that matter).

    You're answering your own pondering though. There are simply too many variables to account for in any way without hindsight. And in that situation, the most efficient responses at a policy level are those that don't depend too highly on regional variables for success, and more importantly, those that instil a sense of confidence in the community that any level of normalcy is achievable.


    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    If we’re in the business of presenting new things, I’m afraid you’ll have to do better than repeat the same passive aggressive sophistry that borders on gainsaying the “cherry picked” studies and surveys of representative studies I’ve discussed periodically in this thread.
    Blah.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    There are numerous studies involving Covid and other viral outbreaks indicating lockdowns are medically one of the least effective at controlling the spread of infection beyond the earliest phase of an outbreak, relative to combinations of things like masks and social distancing.
    And there is your contradiction, or your shifting goal post. "Medically". I agree with you that lockdowns are a blunt tool for the symptoms, and are best used in combination with masks and distancing. I also agree that masks and social distancing are the best first step. But you also were complaining about the economic impacts of alockdown. And the economic impacts are best mitigated, as I just said above, by the pathway that allows for the greatest confidence in the community that they can live as normally as possible. This is where the decisive and well communicated part that I keep referring to comes in. Lockdown done right is the best result for societal confidence, because upon lifting it reduces the transmission risk to near zero. On the other hand, A poorly managed lockdown does not manage the transmission risk away, so leaves a society lacking in confidence, and economically damaged. A toxic combination.

    Lockdowns have worked spectacularly well. And devastatingly poorly. Like any and all other possible pathways, the most important part is the communication and decisive response.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MARENOSTRUM

  5. #2525

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    And there is your contradiction, or your shifting goal post. "Medically". I agree with you that lockdowns are a blunt tool for the symptoms, and are best used in combination with masks and distancing. I also agree that masks and social distancing are the best first step. But you also were complaining about the economic impacts of alockdown. And the economic impacts are best mitigated, as I just said above, by the pathway that allows for the greatest confidence in the community that they can live as normally as possible. This is where the decisive and well communicated part that I keep referring to comes in. Lockdown done right is the best result for societal confidence, because upon lifting it reduces the transmission risk to near zero. On the other hand, A poorly managed lockdown does not manage the transmission risk away, so leaves a society lacking in confidence, and economically damaged. A toxic combination.

    Lockdowns have worked spectacularly well. And devastatingly poorly. Like any and all other possible pathways, the most important part is the communication and decisive response.
    There is no contradiction nor goalpost, just empirical conclusions of numerous studies. Lockdowns are medically ineffective relative to other measures and economically costly. If you accept that, there’s no reason for you to make things up about the way I’ve presented it.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  6. #2526
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    There is no contradiction nor goalpost, just empirical conclusions of numerous studies. Lockdowns are medically ineffective relative to other measures and economically costly. If you accept that, there’s no reason for you to make things up about the way I’ve presented it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    As time goes on, and costs of lockdowns reverberate, the evidence continues to mount that these costs, medically and economically, outweigh the limited benefits. It would be bad enough as a costly lesson, but this has been known for years.
    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    If we’re in the business of presenting new things, I’m afraid you’ll have to do better than repeat the same passive aggressive sophistry that borders on gainsaying the “cherry picked” studies and surveys of representative studies I’ve discussed periodically in this thread. There are numerous studies involving Covid and other viral outbreaks indicating lockdowns are medically one of the least effective at controlling the spread of infection beyond the earliest phase of an outbreak, relative to combinations of things like masks and social distancing.
    You're subtilty changing the conversation. That's a shifting goalpost. When the thing I'm arguing is that lockdowns are a powerful and effective tool that addresses both medical and economic impacts in away that covers for the the broadest possible localised variables.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MARENOSTRUM

  7. #2527

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    You're subtilty changing the conversation. That's a shifting goalpost. When the thing I'm arguing is that lockdowns are a powerful and effective tool that addresses both medical and economic impacts in away that covers for the the broadest possible localised variables.
    Like I said, you’re going to have to do better than contradict the comprehensive studies I’ve discussed. Lockdowns are less effective relative to other, less restrictive measures, and economically costly. Why be dishonest about something evident from this page alone, much less what I’ve said consistently for a year now? If you have anything substantive to add to the discussion, you wouldn’t need to make silly accusations in place of making a point.
    Quote Originally Posted by Post 2515
    The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits. However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures. More targeted public health interventions that more effectively reduce transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly restrictive measures
    Quote Originally Posted by post 2518
    As time goes on, and costs of lockdowns reverberate, the evidence continues to mount that these costs, medically and economically, outweigh the limited benefits. It would be bad enough as a costly lesson, but this has been known for years.
    Quote Originally Posted by 2520
    Some countries had a better experience with lockdowns than others. The evidence so far indicates the lack of relative effectiveness and disproportionate cost outweigh the benefits in every international sample I’ve seen.
    Obviosuly if I’m taking the time to repeat “ineffective” and “costly” I’m referring to medical effectiveness and economic cost.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; January 16, 2021 at 11:13 PM.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  8. #2528

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    There are numerous studies involving Covid and other viral outbreaks indicating lockdowns are medically one of the least effective at controlling the spread of infection beyond the earliest phase of an outbreak, relative to combinations of things like masks and social distancing.
    Nope. There really aren't. There are, however, studies that take half-assed lock down measures to pass judgment on the entire concept. Just like any procedure, lock down measures can be ineffective if they're not enforced and organized properly. If a bunch of surgeons fail a particular surgery do we come out and say the surgical method they used doesn't work right away? Not really. We know for a fact that complete lock downs work. The result is a better economic outcome that we saw in places like New Zealand and Australia.
    The Armenian Issue

  9. #2529

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Nope. There really aren't. There are, however, studies that take half-assed lock down measures to pass judgment on the entire concept. Just like any procedure, lock down measures can be ineffective if they're not enforced and organized properly. If a bunch of surgeons fail a particular surgery do we come out and say the surgical method they used doesn't work right away? Not really. We know for a fact that complete lock downs work. The result is a better economic outcome that we saw in places like New Zealand and Australia.
    Gainsaying isn’t an argument. You’re welcome to browse any collection of my posts from this thread.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  10. #2530

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Legio_Italica View Post
    Gainsaying isn’t an argument. You’re welcome to browse any collection of my posts from this thread.
    Pointing out shortcomings of the studies you use is not "gainsaying". The fact that you're so quick to dismiss it with such a false accusation tells a lot about the merits of your substances.
    The Armenian Issue

  11. #2531

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Pointing out shortcomings of the studies you use is not "gainsaying". The fact that you're so quick to dismiss it with such a false accusation tells a lot about the merits of your substances.
    You haven’t pointed out anything relevant to these studies beyond your disagreement. That’s neither an indication of their alleged methodological “shortcomings” nor an argument against their conclusions.
    Of these facts there cannot be any shadow of doubt: for instance, that civil society was renovated in every part by Christian institutions; that in the strength of that renewal the human race was lifted up to better things-nay, that it was brought back from death to life, and to so excellent a life that nothing more perfect had been known before, or will come to be known in the ages that have yet to be. - Pope Leo XIII

  12. #2532
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    On the ground the practical experience of health workers I know in Australia (and the experiences of our friends in the UK and US, including health workers there) is that there are no silver bullets but lockdowns are a legitimate arrow in the quiver. It goes without saying a lockdown only works if you support it with other measures and your people believe in the leadership enough to comply.

    There are anecdotal example, not sure how the studies support them (and my impression its a bit early to be calling anything conclusive right now) of mass obedience in some states, and mass disobedience in others, sometimes actually incited by blabbermouth idiots in power. Certainly the recent sequence of events (which received cursory coverage in Australia so I'm working from sketchy impressions) with the "control" measure in the UK up to and around Christmas seemed bafflingly out of step with the stated medical consensus, and reflected poor leadership as well as a general air of non-cooperation by the populace.

    Obviously incompetent and divisive, lie-spewing tools like Trump and Boris can't make lockdowns work, and the US and UK systems have let their people down by becoming so divided and letting such worms into power. Their opposition bears a good measure of blame too.

    Both systems have great strengths but have rewarded leaders and parties happy to play fairly toxic political games to get into power.
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  13. #2533
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    A must read,
    Sridhar D, Gurdasani D. Herd immunity by infection is not an option. Science. 2021 Jan 15;371(6526):230-231. PubMed: https://pubmed.gov/33446540. Full-text: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf7921

    -----
    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    Lockdown done right is the best result for societal confidence, because upon lifting it reduces the transmission risk to near zero. On the other hand, A poorly managed lockdown does not manage the transmission risk away, so leaves a society lacking in confidence, and economically damaged. A toxic combination.
    Precisely.
    “Lockdown? What lockdown…” Portuguese defy orders to stay

    What's going on? the lockdown rules are a sad joke, there are too many exceptions. The government needs courage to impose strict rules, enforce them and resist the popular backlash. Our hospitals are on brink of total collapse.
    Meanwhile, Israel with more than20% of its population already been vaccinated, is aiming for herd immunity with 3/4 vaccinated by March.
    Last edited by Ludicus; January 17, 2021 at 05:41 PM.
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  14. #2534
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    ...
    What's going on? the lockdown rules are a sad joke, there are too many exceptions. The government needs courage to impose strict rules, enforce them and resist the popular backlash. Our hospitals are on brink of total collapse.
    Meanwhile we're having the Australian Open. Tennis players flying in are having hissy fits about being made to quarantine (shades of Djokovic's idiotic "feelgood" virus sharing tournament). They're being sat down, told to STFU or get on a plane home, and funnily enough they STFU like the good little entertainers they are.

    Even some of the Indian cricket team (a group with a reputation for being fairly honourable, unlike the prima donna Australian cricketers) felt they were above the restrictions but on reflection have complied. The hard line results in public trust, and the less exceptions (and flagrant breaches) the more compliance by the public.

    CF Boris' advisor Cummings breaking whatever rules he liked with no consequences: no wonder people are "meh why bother" about restrictions in the UK.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    ...Meanwhile, Israel with more than20% of its population already been vaccinated, is aiming for herd immunity with 3/4 vaccinated by March.
    There's a political mess in Israel RN but it seems the majority of leaders remain unified on the question of the safety of their electorate. As with Australia I am sure some measures are too heavy, but at least they are sticking to "the plan" more or less. I think this is definitely an instance where everyone staying with the plan (even a mediocre one) is better than everyone following a multitude of plans.

    Compare that with the hideous game-playing in the US. Once again, the contrast is extreme and whatever criticism Netanyahu may deserve he serves Israel first. The Republicans and Democrats mostly treat the lives of their fellow citizens as chips to be traded in a media circus/casino.
    Last edited by Cyclops; January 18, 2021 at 02:57 PM.
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  15. #2535
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    As i read in german newspapers today the hospitals of the UK are near the point of collapse like last time in WW II.

    Johnson is no Primeminister, he is a prince of Carnival.
    Last edited by Morticia Iunia Bruti; January 18, 2021 at 03:10 PM.
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  16. #2536

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    "Less than 1% of America’s population lives in long-term care facilities, but as of January 14, 2021, this tiny fraction of the country accounts for 37% of US COVID-19 deaths."
    (Probably even more considering in seniorcide Il Duce Cuomo's New York, LTCF deaths are calculated differently)
    https://covidtracking.com/data/long-term-care

    "Germans who repeatedly refuse to quarantine after being exposed to COVID-19 will be held in detention centers — and even under police guard, according to reports."
    https://nypost.com/2021/01/18/german...ign=SocialFlow

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    “Lockdown? What lockdown…” Portuguese defy orders to stay


    What's going on? the lockdown rules are a sad joke, there are too many exceptions. The government needs courage to impose strict rules, enforce them and resist the popular backlash. Our hospitals are on brink of total collapse.
    Ahhh, missing Salazar...
    Last edited by Infidel144; January 18, 2021 at 06:42 PM.

  17. #2537
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Morticia Iunia Bruti View Post
    As i read in german newspapers today the hospitals of the UK are near the point of collapse like last time in WW II.

    Johnson is no Primeminister, he is a prince of Carnival.
    I believe in the British tradition the officer in charge of a Saturnalia was called "Lord of Misrule", seems fitting for the time of year
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  18. #2538

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    How are lock downs supposed to be managed effectively when the politicians attempting to mandate them can't even follow their own rules?

  19. #2539
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pontifex Maximus View Post
    How are lock downs supposed to be managed effectively when the politicians attempting to mandate them can't even follow their own rules?
    If that's the problem you're having with your politicians, then perhaps you might consider obtaining new ones?
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  20. #2540

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    My friend, if it was up to me to decide whether or not the likes of Gavin Newsom, Nancy Pelosi, or whoever that sloth looking woman mayor of Chicago is called, we would be under very different leadership.

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