Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

[Infidel144]

That kinda puts USA at a worse position, does it not? USA seems to be behind on testing, yet it's one of the leading countries on case and death numbers.

It is right in line with Germany (37), UK(38), Canada(40), well ahead of France(53). A lot of the 'countries' in the top portion of the list for testing per million are small population, Isle of Man, Gibraltar, San Marino, Luxembourg, Malta etc.

[PointOfViewGun]

It is right in line with Germany (37), UK(38), Canada(40), well ahead of France(53). A lot of the 'countries' in the top portion of the list for testing per million are small population, Isle of Man, Gibraltar, San Marino, Luxembourg, Malta etc.

With that logic it puts USA at #9 with countries with more than 10 million people taken into account. With countries over 50 million people USA is at #5. However, with countries over 10 million USA is sitting at #3 for total cases, and with countries over 50 million USA is sitting at #1.

[Surgeon]

In an unprecedented turn of events, confederate MAGA chuds storm the beaches of NYC looking to doom the civilized world. Looks like the lockdowners overplayed their hand and quarantine is effectively over.

I imagine the mayor can still wrest some control if he were to compromise. But, it's more likely he'll just hard shut down beaches and civil disobedience becomes the new black.

[Pontifex Maximus]

In an unprecedented turn of events, confederate MAGA chuds storm the beaches of NYC looking to doom the civilized world. Looks like the lockdowners overplayed their hand and quarantine is effectively over.

I imagine the mayor can still wrest some control if he were to compromise. But, it's more likely he'll just hard shut down beaches and civil disobedience becomes the new black.

"stay inside forever if you want to live" is a losing argument every time. Soon only 98% of us will be left...

[Infidel144]

So, new Democrat talking point from Cuomo (who "has been criticized for a decision [i.e. order] in March, which has since been reversed [reversed May 1st], to send patients back to nursing homes after they tested positive for COVID-19", "More than 4,800 people died from COVID-19 in nursing homes in the state between March 1 and May 1"):

"“Despite whatever you do, because with all our progress as a society, we can’t keep everyone alive,” Cuomo said."
"“How do we get justice for those families of those 139 deaths?” Cuomo said. “Who can we prosecute for those 139 deaths? Nobody. Mother Nature, God, where did this virus come from [Cuomo was calling it the European virus]? People are going to die by this virus, that is the truth.”"
"Cuomo continued to stress the point that older and more vulnerable people were “always going to die from this virus.” "
https://www.mytwintiers.com/news-cat...nursing-homes/

Meanwhile, Polis (Colorado's governor) says the state is going to start reclassifying how how the deaths are counted:

"“The CDC criteria include anybody who has died with COVID-19, but what the people of Colorado and the people of the country want to know is how many people died of COVID-19,”"
"Colorado previously had reported 1,150 people died from COVID-19, but late Friday, officials changed that number to 878."
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/col...s-death-counts

[PointOfViewGun]

"stay inside forever if you want to live" is a losing argument every time. Soon only 98% of us will be left...

Nobody arguing that people should stay inside forever. Why is it a thing?

[Pontifex Maximus]

Nobody arguing that people should stay inside forever. Why is it a thing?

Because back in early March all the experts, officials, and authorities told us quarantine was a temporary measure to flatten the curve. 8+ weeks later, after having accomplished that, the politicians are telling us we need to stay locked up in our houses or "PeoPle WiLl Lit$Erally DiE!11" despite evidence to the contrary. Now the Karens of the world, including those making your arguments, would rather see us locked up closer to the point of a vaccine being developed despite the fact that a vaccine for any coronavirus family (eighteen of which existed before Covid 19) has never been developed.

What you're essentially arguing is that in light of the HIV pandemic, we must remain indoors and quarantined until a vaccine is developed.

So when are we allowed to go outside?

[Sar1n]

Because back in early March all the experts, officials, and authorities told us quarantine was a temporary measure to flatten the curve. 8+ weeks later, after having accomplished that, the politicians are telling us we need to stay locked up in our houses or "PeoPle WiLl Lit$Erally DiE!11" despite evidence to the contrary. Now the Karens of the world, including those making your arguments, would rather see us locked up closer to the point of a vaccine being developed despite the fact that a vaccine for any coronavirus family (eighteen of which existed before Covid 19) has never been developed.

What you're essentially arguing is that in light of the HIV pandemic, we must remain indoors and quarantined until a vaccine is developed.

So when are we allowed to go outside?

If it was me deciding, it would be either when a reliable cure, acting fast enough to prevent ICUs being swamped, is developed, or when Americans show that they can maintain some basic precautions-wearing masks or at least something over the mouth and nose in public and maintaining some distance from each other.

[PointOfViewGun]

Because back in early March all the experts, officials, and authorities told us quarantine was a temporary measure to flatten the curve. 8+ weeks later, after having accomplished that, the politicians are telling us we need to stay locked up in our houses or "PeoPle WiLl Lit$Erally DiE!11" despite evidence to the contrary. Now the Karens of the world, including those making your arguments, would rather see us locked up closer to the point of a vaccine being developed despite the fact that a vaccine for any coronavirus family (eighteen of which existed before Covid 19) has never been developed.

What you're essentially arguing is that in light of the HIV pandemic, we must remain indoors and quarantined until a vaccine is developed.

So when are we allowed to go outside?

Karens of the world are the ones whining about the lock downs. Strange that you'd try to project that concept like that. The fact of the matter is nobody argues that people should stay inside forever. Even the most extreme you can think of, stay inside till a vaccine is developed, is a minority opinion of people who think the vaccine/cure will come soon. I never argued that. If you actually read my posts you'd realize that I advocated for a complete lock down for the duration of a month to eradicate the virus. That path is the best way to eliminate the virus with minimum economic impact.

For the time to re-open is dependent on the success of the individual state/country/city. When a region manages to eliminate community transmission they're much better suited to battle the disease. Their healthcare system can effectively handle the load and the authorities can trace contact of any infected patient. Some countries started opening when new cases dropped to single digits. Some did it with more new cases. The point is to open up when the R value of infection can be kept under 1 with the disease's load on hospitals greatly diminished. If proper lock down measures are enacted this will likely take about a month or so.

[Infidel144]

Judges have been overturning executive orders issued by Governors, the latest being Frau Brown's order(s) in Oregon:
https://www.salemreporter.com/posts/...rs-are-invalid
https://www.bakercityherald.com/coro...a7c0928b8.html

Judge Shirtcliff reading his decision:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyAbzgc4Dks&t=1s

Orgeon's SC puts Shirtcliff's ruling on hold for review:
https://www.nwpb.org/2020/05/18/oreg...appeal-coming/


Some others with less scope:
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local...order/2120414/

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg...tay-home-order

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/co...242788161.html

https://www.kare11.com/article/news/...7-791c58646bd3

[Lord Thesaurian]

Since it doesn’t appear to have been brought up yet (perhaps I missed it?):

China Warns Australia It Could Face Boycotts Over Call for an Independent Inquiry Into Coronavirus

China’s warning of trade repercussions from Australia’s campaign for an independent inquiry into the coronavirus has rattled Australian business leaders as President Donald Trump’s administration urges other governments to back such a probe.
China has accused Australia of parroting the United States in its call for an inquiry independent of the World Health Organization to determine the origins of COVID-19 and how the world responded to the emerging pandemic.

Chinese Ambassador Cheng Jingye used an Australian newspaper interview this week to warn that pursuing an inquiry could spark a Chinese consumer boycott of students and tourists visiting Australia as well as of sales of major exports including beef and wine.

When senior Australian diplomat Frances Adamson raised concerns about the interview, Cheng took the extraordinary step of making public his account of their telephone conversation. Cheng said he told Adamson to “put aside ideological bias” and “stop political games.”

https://time.com/5830675/china-austr...virus-inquiry/

WHO official says agency not invited to take part in China's coronavirus investigation

China has not invited the World Health Organization to take part in an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus outbreak, according to the global health authority's representative in the country.

Dr. Gauden Galea told Sky News on Friday: "We know that some national investigation is happening but at this stage, we have not been invited to join."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/w...ina-s-n1197516

Later:

China could shape any result in its favor by putting off the WHO investigation until after the pandemic

Chinese officials previously described Canberra's proposal as "highly irresponsible," and accused Australian officials of undermining global efforts against the virus. But when Xi addressed the annual meeting of WHO members, he took a more conciliatory tone: of course China was willing to support an investigation into the virus -- once the pandemic is over.

A comprehensive investigation into the coronavirus will likely take years to complete. Any further delay on that could make the findings, whatever they are, more inconsequential.

China's critics may see a probe as a potential means of holding Beijing to account for failures that may have helped lead to a global pandemic, but how willing will they be to act on such findings if they come in 2025? Or 2030?

By then, the economic pragmatist argument that always shapes relations with China will once again be in play, and countries will be less willing to rock the boat by taking on Beijing. Political pressure at home will also have shifted to other issues, and the public may not support politicians upsetting a major trading partner over some virus from years before.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/asia/...hnk/index.html

Meanwhile:

The CIA believes China tried to prevent the World Health Organization from sounding the alarm on the coronavirus outbreak in January—a time when Beijing was stockpiling medical supplies from around the world. A CIA report, the contents of which were confirmed to Newsweek by two U.S. intelligence officials, said China threatened the WHO that the country would stop cooperating with the agency's coronavirus investigation if the organization declared a global health emergency.

It was the second such report from a Western intelligence service and is likely to further inflame tensions between the United States and China over a pandemic that has killed 280,000 people worldwide—more than a quarter of them American.

The first report, a German intelligence assessment published by Der Spiegel last week, accused Chinese President Xi Jinping of personally applying pressure on WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on January 21.

The WHO dismissed the notion that Xi himself intervened, but declined to address specifically the question of whether Chinese officials made any effort to delay or change the announcement of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-c...ndemic-1503565

Safe to say we are unlikely to ever know the whole truth of the scale of the ongoing CCP coverup that caused this pandemic. What’s increasingly clear is that the Politburo is not at all shy about extending its Orwellian domestic stage management regimen to the whole world, and and is willing to directly punish any state or actor it perceives to be a threat to this project. With the US turned inward, the rest of the world may have to find its own way of collectively dealing with Beijing’s designs, or otherwise face further political and economic subjugation in piecemeal fashion.

[Ludicus]

is a minority opinion of people who think the vaccine/cure will come soon..

Not so soon...but I think we will have a vaccine by next Spring.
Moderna Announces Positive Interim Phase 1 Data

Anticipated dose for Phase 3 study between 25 µg and 100 µg; expected to start in July and, if successful, file a BLA,
Preclinical results from a viral challenge study in mice conducted in collaboration with NIAID and its academic partners are also available. In this study, vaccination with mRNA-1273 prevented viral replication in the lungs of animals challenged with SARS-CoV-2.
Neutralizing titers in Phase 1 clinical trial participants at the 25 µg and 100 µg dose levels were consistent with neutralizing titers that were protective in the mouse challenge model.

Let's wait and see. This seems very promising.

-----

With the US turned inward.

The US has a long and consistent story of provoking wars and invading foreign countries. The world would be a better place if there were more well-done humanitarian interventions: food crisis in Ethiopia, Kenya, locusts in East Africa, poverty, the tragedy of the Yemen war, the global malaria burden,etc.

the rest of the world may have to find its own way of collectively dealing with BeijingÂ’s designs, or otherwise face further political and economic subjugation in piecemeal fashion.

Let's not exaggerate...US remains as a top international research partner with China despite raising trade and tech tensions

[Lord Thesaurian]

One man’s humanitarian intervention is another man’s imperialist invasion, and that will always be the case regardless of who initiates. The question anyone supportive of international cooperation must ask is, who would you rather have doing the intervening, the US, or a state actor from the authoritarian bloc? I know my answer to that question, but the rest of the world doesn’t seem so sure, even after being stricken with the CCP pandemic. Nevertheless, each impacted nation will answer, politically and economically, by default, one way or another. The Politburo has shown they will see to that, because there can be no compromise when it comes to the adhering to the CCP’s ideological and political imperatives.

[Stario]

That kinda puts USA at a worse position, does it not? USA seems to be behind on testing, yet it's one of the leading countries on case and death numbers.

Precisely the opposite. If a country has poor testing/is "behind on testing" the CFR will likely be higher, and that's what we are seeing in the US.

Case fatality rate= Number of deaths due to a particular disease /Total number of cases due to the same disease * 100

IE:
10 deaths/10 people tested x 100= 100% Case Fatality Rate

10 deaths/1,000 tested x100 = 1% Case Fataliy Rate

It is estimated that 80% of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. Given that hospital beds, health workers, and test kits are in short supply, only highly symptomatic people are advised to go to the hospital. Because of lack of adequate testing, including in the United States, in many places only hospital patients are now counted as cases.

The people who do not feel seriously ill stay home, recover quietly, and are never counted. However, instead of counting everyone who has been infected in the denominator, in many countries - including the US - only people sick enough to go to the hospital are counted. This is known as selection bias, as people who are sick enough to go to the hospital are more likely to need critical care than patients with mild or no symptoms.


Further, even when we are testing, depending on the type of tests used and how we are using them, we may only be counting people who are actively infected. This again will lead to an underestimate of the denominator.
What this means is that the denominator (# of infections) is smaller than it should be, so the numerator (# of deaths) has a lot of power. In this case, the result is that the infection fatality rate (numerator divided by denominator) reported is higher than it should be.


...SO it makes logical sense actually to why a country like USA (lagging in testing), will also be leading on the Case fatality rates.


On a slightly different question- I wonder how the world will react if it was proven the virus came out of a Chinese lab....

[Ludicus]

It seems, apparently, that the US is the 13º country in COVID deaths/1 million pop., so its not leading on case fatality rates.Coronavirus cases worldwide by country | Statista

But it's crystal clear that in the US COVID anarchy more people have died from coronavirus than has been reported,including people who died at home/those who were not tested for it. A few intellectually dishonest people have tried to put COVID-19 into perspective by comparing it with the flu, saying that the flu had actually killed more people than the new coronavirus, a nonsensical comparison.
Malaria kills around 800,000 people a year and is second only to tuberculosis in its impact on world health, and that is another nonsensical comparison.

--
A Quick Summary of the COVID-19 Literature So Far - Medscape

Key points,-Test, trace, isolate.-Epidemic control is feasible with contact tracing if minimal delay is achieved.

-symptomatic/presymptomatic transmission is substantial. Peak infectiousness is probably 1 day prior to symptom onset.
-In the absence of therapy/vaccine, intermittent social distancing is likely to be needed for years to avoid overwhelming critical care capacity.




---

Meanwhile, in Europe.Now we're talking. European Union, a step in the right direction, a short term response to the crisis.

Germany and France propose 543 billion euro EU recovery ...

Under the proposal, the funds would be given as grants to hardest-hit sectors and regions in the EU. The 27 EU countries would also borrow together on financial markets to raise the funds. According to Merkel, a long-term solution, including EU reforms, would be discussed later because Europe must develop further.

[ggggtotalwarrior]

With that logic it puts USA at #9 with countries with more than 10 million people taken into account. With countries over 50 million people USA is at #5. However, with countries over 10 million USA is sitting at #3 for total cases, and with countries over 50 million USA is sitting at #1.

That’s if you believe the stats coming out of China, which should be no one with even elementary school level critical thinking skills

[PointOfViewGun]

Precisely the opposite. If a country has poor testing/is "behind on testing" the CFR will likely be higher, and that's what we are seeing in the US.
Case fatality rate= Number of deaths due to a particular disease /Total number of cases due to the same disease * 100
IE:
10 deaths/10 people tested x 100= 100% Case Fatality Rate
10 deaths/1,000 tested x100 = 1% Case Fataliy Rate
It is estimated that 80% of COVID-19 cases are either asymptomatic or have mild disease. Given that hospital beds, health workers, and test kits are in short supply, only highly symptomatic people are advised to go to the hospital. Because of lack of adequate testing, including in the United States, in many places only hospital patients are now counted as cases.
The people who do not feel seriously ill stay home, recover quietly, and are never counted. However, instead of counting everyone who has been infected in the denominator, in many countries - including the US - only people sick enough to go to the hospital are counted. This is known as selection bias, as people who are sick enough to go to the hospital are more likely to need critical care than patients with mild or no symptoms.
Further, even when we are testing, depending on the type of tests used and how we are using them, we may only be counting people who are actively infected. This again will lead to an underestimate of the denominator.
What this means is that the denominator (# of infections) is smaller than it should be, so the numerator (# of deaths) has a lot of power. In this case, the result is that the infection fatality rate (numerator divided by denominator) reported is higher than it should be.
...SO it makes logical sense actually to why a country like USA (lagging in testing), will also be leading on the Case fatality rates.
On a slightly different question- I wonder how the world will react if it was proven the virus came out of a Chinese lab....

That's fundamentally false as it assumes that more testing means more COVID19 deaths. In reality, prevalence of testing doesn't necessarily affect death rates.

That’s if you believe the stats coming out of China, which should be no one with even elementary school level critical thinking skills

That's an offset of 1. In any ways, I don't think anyone with elementary school level critical thinking skills would compare China with USA. It's not exactly an accomplishment to be better than China...

[Ludicus]

Trump, the pathological liar.

April, 14.
Offline: Why President Trump is wrong about WHO - The Lancet

April 14, 2020: President Trump, speaking at The White House—“Today, I am instructing my administration to halt funding of the World Health Organization while a review is conducted to assess the World Health Organization's role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus…The WHO's reliance on China's disclosures likely caused a 20-fold increase in cases worldwide, and it may be much more than that. The WHO has not addressed a single one of these concerns nor provided a serious explanation that acknowledges its own mistakes, of which there were many…so much death has been caused by their mistakes.” Here are the facts...

Read it all.

-----.
Edit 1

prevalence of testing doesn't necessarily affect death rates.

Just a side note. Let's keep in mind that many deaths from the new coronavirus go unnoticed, in some countries merely reported as "pneumonia deaths", or simply ignored. But we can try to estimate how many people have been infected from a real, accurate number of people who have died from COVID-19.
-------
Edit 2,

China

Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 ... - The Lancet

.. In conclusion, we have shown that changes in case definitions had a substantial effect on the proportion of all infections identified as cases as time progressed, and therefore also had a substantial effect on the epidemic curve. We estimated that there could have been 232 000 cases by Feb 20, 2020, if, hypothetically, version 5 of the case definitions had been used throughout the epidemic. Still, this would be an underestimate of the number of infections up to that point because it would not have captured some mild or asymptomatic cases. Serological studies will be useful to estimate the cumulative incidence of infections.

Read it all.
-----
Today, May 19

[Pontifex Maximus]

It's not really frustration, nor that I have been unconvincing. That would require an actual discussion on the matter. When you're simply exhibiting disregard for the holes in your claims it would be an invalid thought to consider whether I've been convincing. For you to be unmoved we'd have to be appealing to your emotions as well. In reality, we're, well, pointing at the reality. Meanwhile, disregard for that, whether its done under partisanship or any other reason, if it founds shape in the leadership we face, costs lives.

Well, while we're discussing holes...if a depression will happen with or without wide government restrictions, then what's the harm of lifting all the restrictions and just allowing people the freedom to choose to stay indoors?

[Sar1n]

Well, while we're discussing holes...if a depression will happen with or without wide government restrictions, then what's the harm of lifting all the restrictions and just allowing people the freedom to choose to stay indoors?

Ask those who are dying on the streets or in their homes in Brasil because local healthcare system is overwhelmed.

If the Americans can't follow basic precautions from spreading the virus too quickly, and so far it seems obvious that they can't, that is how it would go down.