Thread: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

  1. #2961
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    South Carolina to join Montana in dropping out the federal covid jobless benefits program because workers refuse to return to low paying jobs and business owners refuse to pay living wages. Of course both states are Red States lol.


    https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/06/polit...its/index.html

  2. #2962
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    The authors literally acknowledge their model is similar to Flaxman’s and has the same methodological flaws I outlined. Again, you should consider reading before posting. In any case, thank you for providing more evidence independently corroborating the other study you ignored:
    Just to be clear, because there are a lot of pages of too much text back and forth here, it's becoming difficult to decipher perspectives...

    Are you presenting this study to back up your opinion that lockdowns don't work at all for their stated purpose, or just that the majority of lockdowns aren't implemented in a way that would make them effective at their stated purpose?

    Or is your point more nuanced?
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post

    Or is your point more nuanced?
    The not starting new threads and mods spinning threads together as preference is one of the strangest parts of the current TWC for someone like me, however, I can answer this question for you based on plain common sense and familiarity with the substance:

    no really never.

  4. #2964

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by enoch View Post
    South Carolina to join Montana in dropping out the federal covid jobless benefits program because workers refuse to return to low paying jobs and business owners refuse to pay living wages. Of course both states are Red States lol.


    https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/06/polit...its/index.html
    yes yes, those pesky business owners need to offer better wages. Surely, if they just paid a living wage, people would choose to go to work for 40 hours a week to earn the exact same amount they're getting paid to work 0 hours.

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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by tgoodenow View Post
    yes yes, those pesky business owners need to offer better wages. Surely, if they just paid a living wage, people would choose to go to work for 40 hours a week to earn the exact same amount they're getting paid to work 0 hours.
    Exactly. This guy gets it. Capitalism at its best.

  6. #2966
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    Finland is east of most of eastern Europe, bordering Russia. Not much logic including that one in a list of western European countries. If Greece is western Europe, let’s not forget countries to the north and west of there
    Finland and Greece are western countries.
    According to Western Europe - UNHCR

    Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Holy See Iceland, Ireland, Italy ,Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway Portugal, San Marino, Spain ,Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom
    According to UCLA Center:
    Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, San Marino,Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom
    And I could go on. To avoid sherry picking, ( "not much logic including...Finland and Greece"), let's look at the whole picture.By the conventional definition, there are 44 sovereign states or nations in the whole Europe- as you have recognized before.

    Update COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista
    COVID-19 deaths worldwide per million population as of May 7, 2021, by country

    For consistency, countries with a smaller population (and a potentially much higher impact of coronavirus deaths) were not included in the table.
    In the whole Europe, Sweden is on the 19th place with the highest death rate per million, among 44 countries

    Hungary
    Czechia
    Bosnia and Herzegovina
    North Macedonia
    Bulgaria
    Moldova
    Slovakia
    Belgium
    Slovenia
    Italy
    United Kingdom
    Poland
    Croatia
    Spain
    Portugal
    France
    Romania
    Lithuania
    Sweden
    --

    I hope you got it.
    -------
    If there’s no reliable data
    Symptomatics are not tested: what happens to the Rt?
    With 401 serious,critical cases, one thing is certain, Sweden has highest new Covid cases per person in Europe
    Last December,Sweden's neighbours offer medical help as second Covid ...but Tegnell is not interested.The mantra is-let them die.
    Once again,'They are leading us to catastrophe': Sweden's coronavirus ...

    Panic, though, is exactly what many within Sweden’s scientific and medical community are starting to feel. A petition signed by more than 2,000 doctors, scientists, and professors last week – including the chairman of the Nobel Foundation, Prof Carl-Henrik Heldin – called on the government to introduce more stringent containment measures. “We’re not testing enough, we’re not tracking, we’re not isolating enough – we have let the virus loose,” said Prof Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, a virus immunology researcher at the Karolinska Institute. “They are leading us to catastrophe.”
    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    The authors literally acknowledge their model is similar to Flaxman’s and has the same methodological flaws I outlined.
    However, we also demonstrate the importance of accounting for voluntary changes in behavior. In particular, most of the decline in mobility in our sample took place before lockdowns were introduced. This finding suggests that people respond to the risk of contracting the virus by changing their mobility patterns and reducing social interactions.
    Before and after, in the long run- remains low thereafter. That's what happened here.
    You don't understand what you reading, right? what that means is "lockdowns reinforce attitudes towards disease-awareness and self-isolation, helping to ensure lower values in the long run"

    flawed
    If it doesn't suit you, is flawed.The Imperial College study is flawed, the Canadian shield study, an approach that says a longer lockdown will save more lives and economy is "speculative",it doesn't make sense to compare Sweden with its neighboring countries, etc...
    Last edited by Ludicus; May 07, 2021 at 05:59 AM.
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  7. #2967

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    I feel like youre right. The OED defnes the meaning of anecdotal as:

    Of evidence (usually medical or scientific): consisting of, or based on, reports of individual cases rather than systematic research or analysis; (also) involving such evidence.

    Your comparison of adjacent nations with similar geography, language, culture and social norms would seem to be based on a systematic approach, more so than (say) selecting a grab bag of disparate nations.

    Just off topic a little:

    If a poster refuses to address reasonable questions, misrepresents what you've posted or gives false definitions of terms then they are likely trolling rather than arguing in good faith. Further if they endlessly recycle certain stock responses (wall of text, derailing accusations, deliberate misrepresentation) its possible they are a bot (or just want to be a bot which amounts to the same thing). I find ignoring them the best policy, as debate is a complete waste of time.

    If you can't use the ignore button for some reason there's nothing to stop you from ignoring the poster yourself. You just have to keep track of name changes (pretty easy of course, the boring and repetitive style and the absence of any merit in the posts gives them away quickly).

    My own view is its worthwhile debating alternate viewpoints (I do it to reveal to myself the depths of my own ignorance, and I try to remember to thank posters as they demolish my fragile arguments because they are educating me), but a rhetorical toilet swirl of timewasting nonsense does not merit a response.
    The available studies include way too many simplification of lockdown measures and lack of addressing of important factors. Whether they support lockdowns or not they are all guilty of this. Normally, when there is a medical study, candidates are selected from similar backgrounds so that the variables can be controlled. Sadly, this didn't happen with lockdown studies. One important reason is that its hard to come up with such similar countries.

    Yet, Sweden, along with Scandinavian countries, presents a great opportunity. They have the greatest degree of similarity in culture and development. So far, Lord Thesaurian only tried to dismiss this without much of an argument against it.
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  8. #2968

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Finland and Greece are western countries.
    According to Western Europe - UNHCR

    According to UCLA Center:
    Fine, then most of Europe is western Europe since most European countries are west of Finland, and you’re even more wrong than before.
    And I could go on. To avoid sherry picking, ( "not much logic including...Finland and Greece"),
    I included Greece, and including Finland still has me winning “Read the List” 15-13 instead of 15-12.
    let's look at the whole picture.By the conventional definition, there are 44 sovereign states or nations in the whole Europe.

    Update COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista
    COVID-19 deaths worldwide per million population as of May 7, 2021, by country

    In the whole Europe, Sweden is on the 19th place with the highest death rate per million, among 44 countries.
    Not sure how you cherry picked that number from your link’s list of 154 countries. I already reviewed 44 countries in Europe, from the list of 48, less the Isle of Man, Vatican City, Channel Islands, and Faroe Islands. I’ll throw out Gibraltar and Monaco too this time for the sake of consistency - that is, excluding city states, and dependencies of other countries (Denmark and UK). So 42 countries. That makes 22 countries with higher death rates than Sweden, 19 with lower. According to that metric, Sweden’s death rate is lower than most European countries, as it was when I took my first pass at it. You can be wrong 23-20, 22-19, 15-12, or 15-13. Are you going to pick one, or come up with other ways to be wrong?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    You don't understand what you reading, right? what that means is "lockdowns reinforce attitudes towards disease-awareness and self-isolation, helping to ensure lower values in the long run"
    Selectively quoting a single sentence from your own source to misrepresent its conclusions while ignoring the rest hurts, not helps, your argument. It’s not my fault this seems to be your approach to citations, but I appreciate all the evidence you’ve provided refuting your own claims and supporting mine.
    Fig 4 shows that most of the decline in mobility occurs before the imposition of the lockdown, and remains low thereafter. This finding shows a clear change in people’s behavior in the early days of the pandemic. Shifting habits before the introduction of NPIs is consistent with the existence of private motives that can induce a reduction in mobility as people avoid becoming infected [48–50]. Our results are also consistent with empirical evidence for the U.S and anecdotal reports from Sweden [48, 51]. The documented relationship between R and mobility does not necessarily constitute evidence against the effectiveness of lockdowns. On the contrary, it is possible that lockdowns reinforce attitudes towards disease-awareness and self-isolation, helping to ensure lower values of R in the long run.
    This doesn’t help your argument nor contradict mine. It’s certainly possible, but as the authors further elaborate and you either didn’t read or ignored:
    However, we also demonstrate the importance of accounting for voluntary changes in behavior. In particular, most of the decline in mobility in our sample took place before lockdowns were introduced. This finding suggests that people respond to the risk of contracting the virus by changing their mobility patterns and reducing social interactions. Failing to account for such voluntary changes in behavior yields estimated effects of NPIs that are arguably too large.

    Given that even our best estimates may still be biased, it is important to interpret these results cautiously.
    This is consistent with the findings of the other study you ignored:
    To be clear, our study should not be interpreted as evidence that social distancing behaviors are not effective. Many people had already changed their behaviors before the introduction of shelter-in-place orders, and shelter-in-place orders appear to have been ineffective precisely because they did not meaningfully alter social distancing behavior.
    So, while it’s “possible” lockdown meaningfully alters social distancing behavior in a statistical sense, evidence suggests it does not.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus
    If it doesn't suit you, is flawed.The Imperial College study is flawed, the Canadian shield study, an approach that says a longer lockdown will save more lives and economy is "speculative",it doesn't make sense to compare Sweden with its neighboring countries, etc...
    No one claimed it doesn’t make sense to compare Sweden with neighboring countries. You made that up. It doesn’t make sense to compare Sweden with only neighboring countries in a discussion of the results of NPIs on a population of countries impacted by the same global pandemic. You’re the one that brought up Sweden in the first place as a showcase for your strawman argument, comparing it with dozens of countries around the world. Meanwhile, you continue to insist it’s an outlier incomparable to any other countries apart from 2-3 specific ones when you realized that talking point wasn’t working out the way you planned. Arguing with yourself again.

    Any critiques I’ve made of any sources you’ve cited have been direct, detailed and backed up by evidence. I mean, for goodness’ sake, your last citation disclaimed as a caveat the same methodological critiques I made previously, and independently corroborated a study I had referenced and you had ignored. You’re not in a position to accuse others of inconsistency while citing sources that directly contradict your claims, and ignoring sources I’ve referenced, throughout the entirety of this marathon discussion.
    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus
    Are you presenting this study to back up your opinion that lockdowns don't work at all for their stated purpose, or just that the majority of lockdowns aren't implemented in a way that would make them effective at their stated purpose?
    Can you link the study you’re referring to? I referred to a few different ones in that paragraph.
    Quote Originally Posted by PoVG
    The available studies include way too many simplification of lockdown measures and lack of addressing of important factors. Whether they support lockdowns or not they are all guilty of this. Normally, when there is a medical study, candidates are selected from similar backgrounds so that the variables can be controlled. Sadly, this didn't happen with lockdown studies. One important reason is that its hard to come up with such similar countries.
    Again I ask, how do you know the studies I presented lack controls? Where did you evidence this? Which specific controls should be included that were not, and why? How do your controls impact the results of those studies? Until then, your assertion is meaningless.
    Yet, Sweden, along with Scandinavian countries, presents a great opportunity. They have the greatest degree of similarity in culture and development. So far, Lord Thesaurian only tried to dismiss this without much of an argument against it.
    Again, more than one study I presented sampled Nordic countries, not just Sweden. You’re the one trying to arbitrarily exclude all other countries besides those 3-4 from analysis without any argument as to why. You would need to demonstrate that these cultural dummy variables you apparently have identified are significant, testable, and have a material impact on the results of a model analyzing the results of specific NPIs. Until then, as I said, you’re just gainsaying and insisting your assertion is self evident in order to avoid having to substantiate it, as you have throughout the thread.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; May 07, 2021 at 10:32 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  9. #2969

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Simplest question might be:

    In which country would you want to be resident in during the height of the pandemic crisis.

    And then, maybe in the aftermath.
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  10. #2970

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Condottiere 40K View Post
    Simplest question might be:

    In which country would you want to be resident in during the height of the pandemic crisis.

    And then, maybe in the aftermath.
    That’s an easy one for me. Same place I’ve been:
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  11. #2971

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    I enjoy watching you guys argue about Sweden while ignoring the fact that Florida has been fully open for months now (fully repealed mask mandates start June 1st) and the metrics are better than probably 90 percent of every European country that had lockdowns for months and months at a time.

    Here's what happened: Your garbage bureaucracies were too busy making sure the neighbors didn't visit and telling Trump how to do his job while they neglected to develop their vaccine production capabilities. Now you are stuck begging for the fruits of his labor like the pathetic helpless vassals you have been for decades.


    Last edited by tgoodenow; May 07, 2021 at 08:17 PM.

  12. #2972
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    Can you link the study you’re referring to? I referred to a few different ones in that paragraph.
    These posts are spiralling into confusion. I'm just trying to get a succinct summary of your argument, as it seems you're spending a lot of time debating definitions.

    Quote Originally Posted by tgoodenow View Post
    I enjoy watching you guys argue about Sweden while ignoring the fact that Florida has been fully open for months now (fully repealed mask mandates start June 1st) and the metrics are better than probably 90 percent of every European country that had lockdowns for months and months at a time.
    35,000 people have died in Florida from Covid. Is that something to be proud of and brag about? 900 have died in similarly sized Australia, where targeted and severe lockdowns have been used in such a way that Australians can now go to stadiums to watch sports and concerts. Come back when you have an actual argument, or sit back and let Legio do it.
    Last edited by antaeus; May 08, 2021 at 01:47 AM.
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  13. #2973
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    CDC is reviewing a report that claims more than 900,000 Americans have died of COVID-19 - nearly DOUBLE the official count - and could revise its death toll.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...-Walensky.html


    I suspect the number is far higher than the official if not double. I know a few people who lost loved ones with comorbidities who were very old and died fast with fevers and were never tested. I imagine a lot of dead were not tested for all the obvious reasons and the sadder ones Trump's criminal behavior made so in the myriad ways possible. Thank god for Joe Biden and an administration concerned with rolling out vaccines instead of sacking the capitol.

  14. #2974

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by tgoodenow View Post
    I enjoy watching you guys argue about Sweden while ignoring the fact that Florida has been fully open for months now (fully repealed mask mandates start June 1st) and the metrics are better than probably 90 percent of every European country that had lockdowns for months and months at a time.

    Here's what happened: Your garbage bureaucracies were too busy making sure the neighbors didn't visit and telling Trump how to do his job while they neglected to develop their vaccine production capabilities. Now you are stuck begging for the fruits of his labor like the pathetic helpless vassals you have been for decades.
    The same Florida that enacted stay-at-home orders with bars and nigh clubs closing down as well as school closures? Despite legal challenges Florida enacted a large number of strict lockdown measures. Just because a measure is repealed by the courts doesn't mean people stopped wearing masks all together as well. While the governor acted like Florida was such a success story with little measures, local authorities took it more seriously. In the end, Florida is just an other state with half-assed lock down measures.
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  15. #2975

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus
    These posts are spiralling into confusion. I'm just trying to get a succinct summary of your argument, as it seems you're spending a lot of time debating definitions.
    I don’t really have an OP in the current discussion since it began at some point months ago, but in a general context, I think I can summarize by answering your question, “Is it that lockdowns don't work at all for their stated purpose, or just that the majority of lockdowns aren't implemented in a way that would make them effective at their stated purpose?”

    Any policy could always be implemented better or worse, and of course, lockdowns went better for some countries than others. Whether one wants to blame implementation, timing, or the inherent effectiveness of certain NPIs, the growing body of observations has corroborated those during other modern pandemics. To summarize a reference I started with in January 2020, mass quarantine/lockdown “is costly, unsustainable, inflexible and impractical. When adopted at the very beginning of the outbreak, it may help slow down the transmission of the virus. But, against the backdrop of globalisation, it is impossible to institute barriers against such spread. Moreover, it may complicate efforts of surge capacity building when a shift to mitigation becomes necessary.”

    That’s what we’ve seen happen during Covid. The WHO declared it a pandemic on March 20 of last year. Their own guidelines for flu viruses, which I understand to be less contagious than Covid, say this:
    During the pandemic period, the focus shifts to delaying spread and reducing effects through population-based measures. Ill persons should remain home when they first become symptomatic, but forced isolation and quarantine are ineffective and impractical.

    Phase 6 (Pandemic Declared)

    Patient isolation and tracing and quarantine of contacts should cease, as such measures will no longer be feasible or useful.

    Persons with fever and respiratory symptoms and their contacts should be asked to undergo voluntary home confinement.

    Countries with cases may introduce exit screening measures for departing travelers. However, such measures are disruptive and costly and will not be fully efficient, as influenza viruses can be carried by asymptomatic persons, who will escape detection during screening.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291415/
    What was considered sound health policy 5 minutes ago is now being cast as “libertarian fringe anti-science” by policymakers with careers to protect. To err is human, but as one researcher noted in June 2020:
    Fewer restrictions on the healthy while better protecting the vulnerable would have been a much better option, permitting more sustainable protection of countries otherwise at risk of second waves as soon as the strict measures are lifted.

    The Covid-19 models’ predictions15 appear wrong in the dynamic, as they show a pattern very far from the one experienced so far. These assumptions are completely wrong after 2 months. Why these simulations have not been revised is an open question.

    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/ful...33392820932324
    Why indeed. In my view, the answer, based on referenced research of other modern pandemics, is most likely political, not scientific.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; May 08, 2021 at 07:34 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  16. #2976
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by enoch View Post
    CDC is reviewing a report that claims more than 900,000 Americans have died of COVID-19 - nearly DOUBLE the official count - and could revise its death toll.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...-Walensky.html


    I suspect the number is far higher than the official if not double. I know a few people who lost loved ones with comorbidities who were very old and died fast with fevers and were never tested. I imagine a lot of dead were not tested for all the obvious reasons and the sadder ones Trump's criminal behavior made so in the myriad ways possible. Thank god for Joe Biden and an administration concerned with rolling out vaccines instead of sacking the capitol.

    Certainly true. Happens with the flu every year because cause of death is attributed to a symptom and not everyone get an autopsy. Also in this case the CDC will be no doubt sweeping up deaths from people who could not or would not go to Hospital in the pandemic was maxing out the local health care options. Is a shame we likely will not get similar data from India or say Brazil
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  17. #2977
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by enoch View Post
    South Carolina to join Montana in dropping out the federal covid jobless benefits program because workers refuse to return to low paying jobs and business owners refuse to pay living wages. Of course both states are Red States lol.


    https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/06/polit...its/index.html
    Make no mistake: these workers are on strike for better wages. Maybe not in any organized or union-sponsored manner, but the act and result is the same: no change, no work. Any conservative who refuses to acknowledge that is living in denial at how bad the labor situation is.

  18. #2978
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Double-post, pardon me.

  19. #2979

    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Thesaurian View Post
    Finland is east of most of eastern Europe, bordering Russia. Not much logic including that one in a list of western European countries.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Finland and Greece are western countries.
    According to Western Europe - UNHCR
    It may not be obvious to an outsider, but in Europe those kinds of divides (either Eastern and Western or some more complex division) have always been motivated by political and cultural history and not physical geography. It is surprising and thoroughly unintuitive for a European to hear that a country's location should determine whether it belongs to the west or the east.

    If I need to come up with an analogy, many Europeans may it find hard to understand why Michigan let alone Ohio belong to an area called the Midwest although they are quite close to the Atlantic and definitely far away from the geographic western part of the United States. Even more so if Alaska is considered. Likewise, Maryland belongs to the South although it is not that far from the Canadian border whereas California, bordering Mexico, is not. For someone familiar with the political and cultural history of the United States, those divisions make all the sense nonetheless.
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  20. #2980
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    Default Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    It may not be obvious to an outsider, but in Europe those kinds of divides (either Eastern and Western or some more complex division) have always been motivated by political and cultural history and not physical geography...
    I had thought the term evolved from a geographic reality? Well at least a relative geographic reference.

    My vague understanding is that when the vast majority of US citizens lived east of the Appalachians the West was literally west of the mountains, but as California etc registered on the US political horizon it became necessary to refine the terminology. Of course the term would refer to the places and the constructs identified with them: Geographic realities intersect with political and economic identities and names become queasily multipurposed in a most unsatisfyingly Saussurean way.

    In Europe the terms Near East and Middle east have a similar history. L'Orient or "The East" was the countries east of Christendom. IIRC it could indicate Ottoman holdings in the Balkans, "Grand Tartary", "India" etc. The decay of the Ottoman state meant the terminology needed sharpening, so Near East (the Ottoman state and its former territories) came into being, distinguished from the Far east (China, Korea and japan, confusingly called North Asia these days) and the Middle east (Iran, Turan and India). Bits drifted in and out, its been a long time since anyone thought of Budapest or Tunis as Near Eastern cities, and Mesopotamia is curiously limnal.

    Economically Cyprus is "Western", and simultaneously "Eastern European" (given the dodgy state of its apartment-and-visa industry). Geographically its Near Eastern or as CNN would say, "Middle Eastern". The Turkish presence in the northern coast would suggest its possibly Anatolian, and its definitely Mediterranean.
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